Trotz des steigenden Verbraucher:innenvertrauens bleiben deutschen Lebensmittelkäufer:innen vorsichtig und suchen nach einem guten Preis-Leistungs-Verhältnis, selbst wenn sie mehr einkaufen – was die Nachfrage nach Eigenmarken, maßgeschneiderten Werbeaktionen und mehr Komfort in den Geschäften erhöht.
Armando Falcao, Associate Director – Retail Reports
-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Overview
- The five-year outlook for grocery retailing
- Market context
- Lower inflation and rising confidence stimulate spending
- Graph 1: harmonised consumer price index, by category, 2022-24
- Germans are spending more due to the higher cost of living
- Graph 2: household private consumption expenditure (incl VAT), 2016-24
- Despite fierce competition, supermarkets are sustaining their share of groceries
- Graph 3: breakdown of grocery retailing, by retailer category, 2019-24
- Mintel predicts
- Market size & forecast
- Grocery retail will grow as Germans trade up on essentials
- Opportunities
- Attract shoppers willing to trade up with exciting premium own-labels
- Blend innovation with familiarity to drive loyalty
- Improve the store atmosphere to encourage younger shoppers to linger
- Leverage in-store technology to attract younger men looking for convenience
- The competitive landscape
- Edeka and Lidl share one third of the grocery retail market
- Graph 4: leading players' estimated share of grocery retailing, 2024
- Discounters have increased their share of total German retail
- Graph 5: breakdown of total retail sales by retailer category, 2015-24
- Supermarkets and discounters compete fiercely
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MARKET DRIVERS
- Inflation and consumer confidence
- Easing inflation will improve consumer willingness to spend
- Graph 6: harmonised consumer price index, by category, 2022-24
- Lower inflation is leading to improved consumer confidence
- Graph 7: financial confidence over the next year, 2023 vs 2024
- Graph 8: changes in financial situation vs previous year, 2023 vs 2024
- Balance quality and affordability as consumer confidence rises
- Localism
- Localism continues to drive German grocery retail
- BMEL promotes innovative projects to strengthen regionality in German food
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MARKET ACTIVITY
- Sector size and forecast
- High inflation for food & drinks drives grocery retail growth
- Graph 9: total grocery retail sales (excl VAT), 2015-24
- Providing value amidst rising prices
- Grocery retail sales will continue to grow in the coming years
- Adapt to changing consumer needs as the economy improves
- Market segmentation
- Despite fierce competition, supermarkets are holding their ground
- Graph 10: breakdown of grocery retail sales, by retailer category, 2015-24
- Groceries outperformed non-food retail as consumers focused on essentials
- Supermarkets and discounters have grown further, while online food stagnated
- Consumer spending
- Consumer spending on food & drinks increased in 2024
- Graph 11: consumer spending on food and drinks (incl VAT), 2015-24
- Emphasise value through cost-saving strategies while confidence rises
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Household grocery shopping
- Responsibility for grocery shopping has shifted in recent years
- Graph 12: responsibility over grocery shopping, 2021-24
- Traditional gender roles prevail in grocery shopping
- Women took greater responsibility for grocery shopping in 2024
- Graph 13: responsibility over grocery shopping, by gender, 2023
- Graph 14: responsibility over grocery shopping, by gender, 2024
- Entice men to browse and buy non-food products
- Older buyers visit grocers more often as part of their social routine
- Graph 15: household grocery shopping patterns, by generation, 2024
- Retailers used for grocery shopping
- The leading grocers increased popularity in 2024
- Graph 16: grocery retailers shopped at in a typical month, 2022-24
- Entice shoppers willing to cautiously trade up with exciting premium ranges
- Netto skews towards older, lower-income shoppers
- Graph 17: leading grocery retailers' positioning by shoppers' average age and household income, 2024
- Nearly three quarters of shoppers spend the most at the leading five grocers
- Graph 18: grocery retailers that shoppers spent the most with, 2024
- Discounters are favoured for top-up shops
- Graph 19: grocery retailers also shopped at in a typical month, 2024
- Diversify product ranges and reward loyalty
- Bargain-hunting shapes Germany's grocery market…
- Graph 20: repertoire of grocery retailers used, by generation, 2024
- …challenging grocers to offer more than price to retain them
- Discounters lead in popularity, but supermarkets are gaining ground
- Graph 21: retailers on which consumers spend the most money on a month, by retail format , 2020-24
- Brand perception of the leading grocery retailers
- Germans perceive discounters to offer the best value for money, but a limited range keeps them coming back to supermarkets
- Edeka: a strong reputation for fresh produce but can improve cleanliness and store navigation
- Rewe is the most popular supermarket, and can leverage its perception for quality
- Supermarkets are considered expensive, while discounters must fight the perception of a limited range
- Graph 22: attributes of the leading grocery retailers, 2024
- Lidl offers great value-for-money but can improve variety and the omnichannel shopping experience
- Aldi can leverage in-store technology and one-stop-shopping to boost its popularity
- Kaufland can leverage its spacious stores with better signage and ease of navigation
- Own-label products
- Grocery shoppers increased purchase of own-label products in 2024
- Graph 23: consumption of own-label and branded food & drinks products compared to the previous year, 2024
- Leverage demand for affordable and value own-labels amidst rising confidence
- Own-label food and drinks have full penetration
- Unlock the potential for premium own labels among cost-conscious older shoppers
- Graph 24: consumption of own-label and branded food & drinks products, by generation, 2024
- Facilitate trading up into premium own labels for older shoppers
- Higher-earners drive demand for premium own-labels
- Graph 25: consumption of own-label and branded food & drinks products, by net household income, 2024
- Target younger families and wealthier households with exciting premium own labels
- Consumer behaviours when shopping for groceries
- 74% of Germans think premium own labels have comparable quality to branded food & drinks
- Graph 26: consumer behaviours when shopping for groceries, 2024
- Appeal to older shoppers with more inviting grocery store environments
- Strong loyalty rewards are crucial in grocery retail
- Leverage consumer interest in more-diversified loyalty rewards
- Target families with rewards that appeal to their need for flexibility and value
- Encourage younger shoppers to linger by improving the store atmosphere
- Encourage wealthier shoppers to trade up
- Entice higher spenders with a more personalised shopping experience
- Graph 27: shoppers who agree, by monthly spend on groceries, 2024
- Attract younger men by enhancing convenience through in-store technology
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RETAILER ACTIVITY
- Leading retailers
- Leading grocery retailers
- Edeka is preparing bold initiatives, but basic elements also show improvement potential
- Rewe leads in omnichannel innovation and AI-driven experiences
- Kaufland focuses on digitalisation, ecommerce and non-food
- Aldi leads in digital integration, discounts and price
- Lidl is dedicated to improving sustainability and the omnichannel experience
- Market share
- Competition in German grocery retail remains fierce
- Leading grocery retailers' market share
- Retail innovation
- Generative AI will continue to transform the retail landscape
- Grocery retailers are trialling new technologies in store
- Rewe ToGo stores boast easy navigation, convenience and freshness
- Kaufland's focus on non-food is confirmed with new own-label fashion collection
- Reinventing the grocery experience in-store with 'transformer counters'
- Trialling AI-powered digital trolleys to support in-store grocery shopping
- Aldi combines tradition and innovation in the 'cheapest Christmas markets' in Germany
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – market definition, abbreviations and consumer research methodology and language usage
- Market definition
- Abbreviations
- Generations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – correspondence analysis
- Correspondence analysis – methodology
- Correspondence analysis: characteristics associated with grocery retailers
- Appendix – market size and forecast
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value – grocery retailing
- Market size – value – supermarkets
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value – grocery retailing
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value – supermarkets
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