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Disposable Baby Products - US - March 2018

"Declining birthrates and budget conscious parents have challenged growth in the disposable baby products market. Parents are unified in their views that safe product ingredients come first – or at least the safest option within their budget. Looking forward, parents’ need for durable products is not expected to change, and a preference for familiar brands will remain; however, interest is growing for more natural options, including products with free-from and natural ingredient claims."

- Rebecca Cullen, Household Care Analyst

This report will look at the following areas:

  • Low fertility rate impacting the pool of consumers
  • Mass merchandisers have the advantage

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The market
          • Disposable baby products market experiences declines, a result of diapers struggle
            • Figure 1: Sales of disposable baby products, by segment, 2015-17
          • The issues
            • Low fertility rate impacting the pool of consumers
              • Figure 2: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
            • Mass merchandisers have the advantage
              • Figure 3: Select purchase locations, December 2017
            • The opportunities
              • Younger parents are buying more in the market than older parents
                • Figure 4: Repertoire of disposable baby product purchases, by parent’s age, December 2017
              • Diaper sales decline; yet usage remains high
                • Figure 5: Diaper and training pants purchases, trial and interest in diaper innovations – Any trial or interest (net), December 2017
              • Leveraging free-from claims to convey safety, natural
                • Figure 6: Select purchase influencers for baby personal care products, any rank (net), December 2017
              • Black and Hispanic parents are buying into natural
                • Figure 7: Select attitudes toward natural products, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2017
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Market declines continue, yet a rebound is in sight
                  • Diaper struggles hurting category
                    • Delays in childbearing leading to smaller households
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Steady declines continue for disposable baby products market
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Diapers lead; sales decline significantly impacts total market
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by segment, 2015-17
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Less is more for parents when it comes to disposable baby products
                        • Figure 11: Share of diapers and wipes product launches, by claim, 2013-17
                        • Figure 12: Share of baby personal care product launches, by claim, 2013-17
                      • Dads role in the family continues to evolve
                        • Online, subscription services disrupting retailers
                        • Market Factors

                          • Delayed childbearing leading to smaller households
                            • Figure 13: Average age of mother at first birth, 1990-2015
                            • Figure 14: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
                          • More diverse population, Hispanic growth impacts market
                            • Figure 15: Distribution of population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2016
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • P&G is the leader in disposable baby product sales
                            • Brand extension, a focus on safety help brands in slow market
                              • Parents deal-seeking behavior tempers diaper sales
                                • Plant-based ingredients offer safe alternative
                                • Manufacturer Sales of Disposable Baby Products

                                  • Big two dominate market; smaller companies deliver growth
                                    • Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of disposable baby products, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Adult personal care brands perform well in baby market
                                    • Dove leverages brand heritage, online ads to reach parents
                                      • Figure 17: Baby Dove #RealMoms campaign video
                                    • Sensitive and safe focus contribute to wipe segment growth
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Private label competes with brand-focused, deal-seeking parents
                                        • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of private label disposable baby products, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                        • Figure 19: Share of disposable baby product launches, branded vs private label, 2012-17
                                      • Diapers sales challenged by price sensitivity
                                        • Figure 20: Total US retail and volume sales of disposable diapers and disposable training pants, at current prices, 2012-17
                                        • Figure 21: Target email ad, December 2017, January 2018
                                      • J&J baby personal care segment loses share to smaller players
                                        • Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Focus on absorbency and performance could lift diapers
                                        • Figure 23: The Wet test: Did mom pass?, Jan. 17, 2018
                                        • Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of The Honest Co. disposable diapers, 2012-17
                                      • Plant-based ingredients expand into baby personal care products
                                        • Brick-and-mortar competing with online and subscription services
                                          • Figure 25: Target email ad, January 2018
                                        • Don’t forget about even the tiniest of consumers
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • Diapers and wipes experience heaviest usage; moms drive purchases
                                            • Mainstream brands most popular, yet natural not far behind
                                              • Mass channels dominate category
                                                • Safety comes first when purchasing baby personal care products
                                                  • Majority of parents perceive natural products favorably
                                                    • Parenthood increases interest in related products and services
                                                    • Disposable Baby Product Purchases

                                                      • Diapers and wipes experience heaviest usage
                                                        • Moms driving household purchases
                                                          • Figure 26: Disposable baby product purchases, by parent’s gender, December 2017
                                                        • Younger parents more invested in market
                                                          • Figure 27: Select disposable baby product purchases, by parent’s age, December 2017
                                                        • Age of child drives purchases
                                                          • Figure 28: Select disposable baby product purchases, by child age, December 2017
                                                        • Hispanic parents are heavier purchasers
                                                          • Figure 29: Disposable baby product purchases, by Hispanic origin, December 2017
                                                      • Brand Preferences

                                                        • Majority of shoppers opt for national brands
                                                          • Figure 30: Brand preferences, any disposable baby products (net), December 2017
                                                          • Figure 31: Brand preferences, December 2017
                                                        • Infant parents prefer natural brands
                                                          • Figure 32: Natural brand preferences, by age of child, December 2017
                                                        • The sweet spot for natural personal care brands: younger and Hispanic parents
                                                          • Figure 33: Natural brand preferences, by parent’s age, December 2017
                                                        • Lower income households price-driven, but also interested in natural
                                                          • Figure 34: Brand preferences – Any disposable baby product (net), by household income, December 2017
                                                      • Purchase Location

                                                        • Most parents rely on mass merchandisers; one in 10 buy online
                                                          • Figure 35: Disposable baby products purchase location, December 2017
                                                        • Store brand purchases are heavier at mass, club stores
                                                          • Figure 36: Brand preferences - Any disposable baby products, by purchase location, December 2017
                                                        • All parents shop mass, regardless of number of kids
                                                          • Figure 37: Select purchase location, by number of children under age 18 in household, December 2017
                                                      • Purchase Influencers for Baby Personal Care Products

                                                        • Baby personal care product selection starts with safety…
                                                          • …and ends with reviews and recommendations
                                                            • Figure 38: Purchase influencers for baby personal care products, by rank, December 2017
                                                          • First-time parents seek natural ingredients, reassurance
                                                            • Figure 39: Select purchase influencers for baby personal care products – Any rank (net), by number of children under age 18 in household, December 2017
                                                          • Hydrating benefits appeal to Black and Hispanic parents
                                                            • Figure 40: Select purchase influencers for baby personal care products – Any rank (net), by race and Hispanic origin, December 2017
                                                        • Attitudes Toward Natural Products

                                                          • Parents’ perceptions of natural baby products are positive
                                                            • Natural offerings benefit from premium and health related benefits
                                                              • Belief that natural means costly could hold back buyers
                                                                • Figure 41: Attitudes toward natural products, December 2017
                                                              • Hispanic, Black parents hold natural products to a higher standard
                                                                • Figure 42: Select attitudes toward natural products, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2017
                                                              • Lower-income households driven by perceptions of safety, trust
                                                                • Figure 43: Select attitudes toward natural products, by household income, December 2017
                                                            • Trial and Interest in Product Innovations

                                                              • Product innovations garner strong usage, interest
                                                                • Safer is always better
                                                                  • Convenience
                                                                    • Apps: taking them to the next level
                                                                      • Customization
                                                                        • Figure 44: Trial and interest in product innovations, December 2018
                                                                      • Younger parents, Hispanics express greater interest in innovations
                                                                        • Figure 45: Trial and interest in product innovations – Any interest or trail (net), by parent’s age, December 2018
                                                                        • Figure 46: Trial and interest in product innovations – Any interest or trail (net), by Hispanic origin, December 2018
                                                                      • First time parents seek guidance, experienced parents want convenience
                                                                        • Figure 47: Trial and interest in select product innovations – Any interest or trail (net), by number of children under the age 18 in household, December 2018
                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                        • Sales data
                                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 50: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable diapers/training pants, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby wipes/moist towelettes, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby personal care products, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 54: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
                                                                                    • Figure 55: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 56: Multi-outlet sales of disposable diapers/training pants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 57: Multi-outlet sales of baby wipes/moist towelettes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                    • Figure 59: Disposable baby product purchases, December 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 60: Share of natural disposable baby product launches, by private label, 2013-17
                                                                                    • Figure 61: Disposable diapers/training pants brand usage, July 2016-August 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 62: Pre-moistened wipes/cloths for babies brand usage, July 2016-August 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 63: Baby oil and baby lotion brand usage, July 2016-August 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 64: Baby/ children’s shampoo brand usage, July 2016-August 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 65: Baby wash and baby bath product brand usage, July 2016-August 2017

                                                                                Disposable Baby Products - US - March 2018

                                                                                US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)