Food Retailing - Italy - November 2010
- Economic recovery in Italy is forecast to be slow, with GDP growth of around 1% expected for 2010 and 2011 with only a small increase in growth thereafter.
- Austerity measures, coupled with rising unemployment, are likely to continue to put pressure on consumer spending over the next few years, although the impact will be felt most keenly in discretionary areas.
- The retail sector is forecast to remain flat in 2010, before growth of less than 1% in 2011.
- Mintel forecasts positive food retail sales growth of 0.7% in 2010, and 1.5% in 2011, narrowly outperforming retail sales as a whole.
- We forecast that food retail sales will see a compound annual growth rate of 2.5% during the period 2010-15, to reach €113.8 billion by 2015.
- Food retail sales fell by 0.2% in 2009, following only very minor positive growth, of 0.5%, in 2008.
- Consumer spending on food, beverages and tobacco contracted by 1.3% in 2009 following positive growth of 2.5% in 2008. However, total consumer spending contracted by 1.9% in 2009, indicating an outperformance by the food, beverage and tobacco sector.
- The food retail sector remains fragmented, with the leading five retailers taking a combined market share of just under 38%.
- Domestic players lead. Coop Italia is the market leader, with a market share of 11.1%. The Conad buying group is in second place, with 8.2% market share.
- International operators including Carrefour, Auchan, Spar, Rewe and Lidl are present – but only Carrefour is in the top five food retailers and its market share has been slipping.
- Discounters performed well in 2009, driven by a substantial increase in total discount store numbers, while convenience stores struggled as consumers sought cheaper outlets.
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