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Description

Description

"After several years of lackluster sales performance, the US fragrance market continues to see sales slip. Cross-category competition and disengagement among key demographics have hindered category growth. In spite of category challenges, there are pockets of growth in e-commerce fragrance brands, customized fragrance, and aromatherapy."

- Alison Gaither, Beauty & Personal Care Analyst

This report will look at the following areas:

  • Sales continue to decline as market challenges endure
  • Department stores fail to capture the attention of younger consumers
  • Hispanics are unusually disengaged and less persuaded by purchase influencers

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales continue to decline as market challenges endure
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, 2013-23
          • Department stores fail to capture the attention of younger consumers
            • Figure 2: Select retailers shopped, by all and aged 18-24, July 2018
          • Hispanics are unusually disengaged and less persuaded by purchase influencers
            • Figure 3: Purchase influencers, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Black consumer behavior toward fragrance encourages usage
              • Figure 4: Behaviors toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
            • Essential oils and aromatherapy create a new fragrance fantasy
              • Innovation drives usage among younger 18-24-year-olds
                • Figure 5: Select interest in format innovations – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Fragrances still in decline, though innovations could foster growth
                  • A functional approach to fragrance positively impacts men’s fragrance
                    • Consumers are spending less and using other products instead
                      • Outside factors such as sensitive skin and online retailers could affect fragrance
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Fragrance remains in decline; pressure is on for innovation
                          • Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, 2013-23
                          • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2013-23 (fore)
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Women’s fragrance overpowers men’s, even with steeper sales declines
                          • Figure 8: Share of fragrance sales, by segment, 2018 (est)
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2013-18 (est)
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Fragrance spend has largely remained unchanged
                          • Figure 10: Female fragrance spend, Winter 2014-18
                        • Scented personal care is detrimental to fragrance market
                        • Market Factors

                          • Fragrance-free and sensitive skin claims grow in competitive categories
                            • Figure 11: Share of launches of select personal care products with both a sensitive skin and fragrance-free claim, Jan 2013-Dec 2017
                          • Consumers are making more beauty purchases online vs. a year ago
                            • Figure 12: Method of shopping, May 2017 and June 2018
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Younger consumers take holistic approach to fragrance
                            • Fragrance is hit with a number of major struggles
                              • Fragrance gets real
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Attaching themselves to ritual benefits essential oils
                                  • Millennials see custom fragrance as a way to express individuality
                                    • Figure 13: Waft Custom Fragrance
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Fragrance is struggling to adjust to a new type of consumer
                                    • Celebrity color cosmetic brands are the new celebrity fragrance
                                      • Figure 14: Correspondence analysis – Brand perceptions, May 2017
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Online fragrance brands will reshape fragrance purchasing
                                      • Fragrance will ditch sex appeal for real
                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                        • Traditional formats, younger consumers drive ownership
                                          • Higher priced fragrances saved for occasions, body spray used daily
                                            • Department stores fail to capture the attention of younger consumers
                                              • Familiarity is a key purchase influencer
                                                • Fragrance is an emotional, expressive experience
                                                  • Gifting fragrance is meaningful to Black consumers
                                                    • Customization and trendy formats are driving innovation
                                                    • Fragrance Ownership

                                                      • Fragrance users are still interested in traditional perfumes and colognes
                                                        • Figure 15: Fragrance ownership, July 2018
                                                      • Younger consumers are key drivers of new, alternative formats
                                                        • Figure 16: Fragrance ownership, by age, July 2018
                                                      • Women continue to lead in category engagement
                                                        • Figure 17: Select fragrance ownership, by gender, July 2018
                                                      • Hispanics are engaged, but view the category as functional
                                                        • Figure 18: Fragrance ownership, by Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                    • Fragrance Usage

                                                      • Consumers are saving perfume usage for outings; body spray is used daily
                                                        • Figure 19: Select fragrance usage, July 2018
                                                      • Most consumers have an occasion-based repertoire
                                                        • Figure 20: Repertoire analysis of fragrances used in the past three months, July 2018
                                                        • Figure 21: Repertoire analysis of fragrance ownership, July 2018
                                                    • Retailers Shopped

                                                      • The fragrance retail market remains highly fragmented
                                                        • Figure 22: Retailers shopped, July 2018
                                                      • Younger consumers are skipping department stores for mass merchandisers
                                                        • Figure 23: Select retailers shopped, by age, July 2018
                                                      • Women are more likely to receive fragrances as gifts
                                                        • Figure 24: Retailers shopped, by gender, July 2018
                                                      • Hispanics approach fragrance differently than other beauty categories
                                                        • Figure 25: Select retailers shopped, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                    • Purchase Influencers

                                                      • Familiar notes drive new fragrance trial; ads less persuasive
                                                        • Figure 26: Purchase influencers, July 2018
                                                      • Younger consumers value familiar, but are influenced by appearances
                                                        • Figure 27: Purchase influencers, by age, July 2018
                                                      • Men influenced by brand; women trust peers
                                                        • Figure 28: Purchase influencers, by gender, July 2018
                                                      • Lack of Hispanic engagement could pose a threat to category growth
                                                        • Figure 29: Purchase influencers, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                      • Familiarity of brand and scent could hurt indie players
                                                        • Figure 30: TURF analysis – Purchase influencers, July 2018
                                                      • Methodology
                                                      • Behaviors toward Fragrance

                                                        • Consumers still have an emotional reaction to fragrance
                                                          • Figure 31: Behaviors toward fragrance, July 2018
                                                        • Men view fragrance as a category with functional benefits
                                                          • Figure 32: Behaviors toward fragrance, by gender, July 2018
                                                        • Younger consumers influenced by older generations
                                                          • Figure 33: Behaviors toward fragrance, by age, July 2018
                                                        • Black consumers continue to drive engagement
                                                          • Figure 34: Behaviors toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                      • Attitudes toward Fragrance

                                                        • Smelling a fragrance prior to purchase drives trial
                                                          • Figure 35: Attitudes toward fragrance, July 2018
                                                        • Gifting is key to gaining younger consumers’ attention
                                                          • Figure 36: Select attitudes toward fragrance, by age, July 2018
                                                        • Black consumers place higher value on fragrance
                                                          • Figure 37: Select attitudes toward fragrance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                      • Interest in Innovations

                                                        • Similar to skincare, natural ingredients and customization drive interest
                                                          • Figure 38: Interest in innovations, July 2018
                                                        • Custom fragrances hit a high note with 25-34-year-olds
                                                          • Figure 39: Select interest in natural and customized scents – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
                                                        • Younger consumers value trendy formats and brands with a message
                                                          • Figure 40: Select interest in format innovations – Any interest (net)*, by age, July 2018
                                                        • Women driving interest in innovations; men take a backseat
                                                          • Figure 41: Select interest in innovations – Any interest (net)*, by gender, July 2018
                                                        • Black consumers over index for every innovation
                                                          • Figure 42: Select interest in innovations – Any interest (net)*, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                        • Data sources
                                                          • Sales data
                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                      • Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                      • Figure 44: Total US retail sales of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
                                                                      • Figure 45: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                      • Figure 46: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                      • Figure 47: Total US retail sales of women's fragrances, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                      • Figure 48: Total US retail sales of men's fragrances, at current prices, 2013-18

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