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Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2019

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions for frozen breakfast foods:

  • Frozen breakfast entrées (eg breakfast bowls, pancakes)
  • Frozen breakfast handhelds (eg burritos, sandwiches, toaster pastries, French toast sticks)
  • Frozen waffles

The following categories are excluded from this Report, except for comparison purposes:

  • Frozen and refrigerated breakfast meats (eg bacon, sausage)
  • Refrigerated breakfast entrées and handhelds
  • Breads and pastries (including shelf-stable, fresh, refrigerated and frozen donuts, muffins, bagels, coffeecakes, snack cakes, Danishes, pastries and mixes to make such products)

"With 2019 sales estimated to reach $3.7 billion and forecast to continue on this same trajectory, the frozen breakfast category is holding its own, fueled by consumer pursuit of heartier breakfast solutions. Innovation in not only flavors and formats but also nutritionally focused positioning is gaining traction as consumers seek a mix of excitement and holistically healthy products. Families are a strong base for the category, with kids leading consumption. Opportunities to engage adults will be the catalyst for growth."
- Kaitlin Kamp, Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Breakfast continues to lose importance
  • Consumers age out of frozen breakfast
  • Other breakfast foods have stronger reputations

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • What you need to know
          • Breakfast isn’t only for mornings anymore
            • Innovation is necessary and working
              • Adults need some attention
                • The issues
                  • Breakfast continues to lose importance
                    • Figure 1: Meal statements, 2016 and 2018
                  • Consumers age out of frozen breakfast
                    • Figure 2: Frozen breakfast consumption, april 2019
                  • Other breakfast foods have stronger reputations
                    • Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food perceptions, April 2019
                  • The opportunities
                    • Keep the grown-ups on the radar
                      • Figure 4: Frozen breakfast attributes, April 2019
                    • Make frozen breakfast an all-day affair
                      • Figure 5: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Household breakfast occasions, April 2019
                    • Build on taste, nutrition, excitement
                      • Figure 6: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                    • Frozen breakfast succeeds as consumers crave convenience
                      • Breakfast foods no longer just for breakfast
                        • Messaging will need to appeal to adults
                        • Market Size and Forecast

                          • Frozen breakfast holds steady
                            • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2014-2024
                            • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Market Breakdown

                          • Entrees, waffles chipping away at the mighty handheld share
                            • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, by percent change, 2017-2019
                            • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-2024
                          • Other retail channels to surpass supermarket sales
                            • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                        • Market Perspective

                          • Frozen breakfast growth outpacing other breakfast foods
                            • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, yogurt and yogurt drinks and hot and cold cereal, packaged bread and eggs, milk, butter by segment, at current prices, 2014-2023
                          • Packaged on-the-go and foodservice options battle frozen breakfast for convenience
                            • Figure 13: Breakfast consumption, by age, April 2018
                          • Foodservice has sparked an all-day breakfast mindset
                          • Market Factors

                            • Breakfast is losing its edge as the most important meal of the day
                              • Figure 14: Meal statements, 2016-2018
                            • Average age spike may require some shifts from frozen breakfast brands
                              • Figure 15: Population by age, 2013-2023
                            • Shrinking household size could stall frozen breakfast
                              • Figure 16: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
                            • Hispanic population continues to grow
                              • Figure 17: Percentage of population, by Hispanic origin, 2014-2024
                              • Figure 18: Hispanic population, by age, 2014-2024
                            • Freezer section refreshes image to remain competitive as COS categories flounder
                              • Figure 19: Health attributes sought, May 2018
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Tyson’s innovation pays off
                              • Breakthrough brands bring new, clean spin to classics
                                • Private label raises the bar
                                • Company and Brand Sales of Frozen Breakfast

                                  • Tyson Foods leads the charge as General Mills falls behind
                                    • Figure 20: MULO sales of frozen breakfast food, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                    • Figure 21: Sales of market, by company, 2018 and 2019
                                  • Smaller brands gain momentum with clean classics
                                    • Figure 22: Other brand sales of frozen breakfast foods, 2015-2019
                                  • Private label frozen breakfasts raising the bar
                                    • Figure 23: Frozen breakfast private label premium options
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Protein is the new low fat
                                      • Figure 24: Jimmy Dean: Somethin' to Eat
                                      • Figure 25: Frozen breakfast with high protein
                                    • Clean ethics
                                      • Figure 26: Frozen breakfast with ethical claims
                                    • Treat Yourself
                                      • Figure 27: Eggo Thick & Fluffy Waffle product collection
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Sugar rush
                                      • Figure 28: High sugar frozen breakfast products
                                    • (Not so) better for you alternatives
                                      • Figure 29: Legacy diet brand struggling products
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Global influence beyond the mainstream
                                      • Figure 30: Breakfast and brunch menu item increases, by cuisine, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
                                    • Bringing restaurant quality food to the freezer
                                      • Figure 31: Brunch-inspired frozen breakfast foods
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Consumers grow out of frozen breakfast
                                      • Frozen breakfast is limited by breakfast
                                        • Protein is the hallmark of a good breakfast
                                          • Innovation lies in flavor and variety
                                            • In a “convenience” category, frozen breakfast has room to improve
                                            • Consumption of Frozen Breakfast

                                              • Children are the most engaged consumers
                                                • Figure 32: Frozen breakfast consumption, April 2019
                                              • Consumers age out of frozen breakfast
                                                • Figure 33: Frozen breakfast consumption, personal consumption, by age, April 2019
                                              • Households without children less likely to consume frozen breakfast
                                                • Figure 34: Frozen breakfast consumption, by parental status, April 2019
                                              • Men, especially fathers, eat frozen breakfasts
                                                • Figure 35: Frozen breakfast consumption, by parental status and gender, April 2019
                                              • Hispanic consumers report the highest personal consumption
                                                • Figure 36: Frozen breakfast consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2019
                                            • Types of Frozen Breakfast Foods Consumed

                                              • Full-size options outstrip minis
                                                • Figure 37: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by household consumption, April 2019
                                              • Adults opt for heartier, grown-up options
                                                • Figure 38: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by adult consumption, April 2019
                                              • Kids are sweet on frozen breakfast
                                                • Figure 39: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by child consumption, April 2019
                                              • Parent consumption closely mirrors child consumption
                                                • Figure 40: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by adult consumption, parental status, April 2019
                                              • Parents are an engaged but fleeting consumer base
                                                • Figure 41: Repertoire of frozen breakfast types consumed, April 2019
                                              • Hispanic males consume the widest variety of frozen breakfast
                                                • Figure 42: Frozen breakfast consumption, by Hispanic origin and gender, April 2019
                                              • Older consumers look elsewhere for breakfast
                                                • Figure 43: Frozen breakfast consumption, by age, April 2019
                                            • Frozen Breakfast Occasions

                                              • Frozen breakfast is limited to morning
                                                • Figure 44: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Household breakfast occasions, April 2019
                                                • Figure 45: Frozen breakfast occasions, April 2019
                                              • Lack of occasions opens up doors for encouraging routine
                                                • Figure 46: Frozen breakfast occasions, April 2019
                                              • Away from home opportunity is up for grabs
                                                • Figure 47: Breakfast consumption occasions, April 2019
                                              • Millennials see versatility in frozen breakfast more than older consumers
                                                • Figure 48: Frozen breakfast occasions, by generation, April 2019
                                            • Important Attributes

                                              • Protein is the priority...
                                                • Figure 49: Frozen breakfast attributes, April 2019
                                              • ...but BFY expectations are stronger from foodservice operators
                                                • Figure 50: Healthy breakfast for breakfast/brunch diners, April 2018
                                              • Sweet breakfast eaters hungry for protein
                                                • Figure 51: Frozen breakfast consumption, high protein, April 2019
                                              • Packaging importance changes as consumers age
                                                • Figure 52: frozen breakfast attributes, packaging interest, by generation, April 2019
                                              • Generational divide on BFY attributes
                                                • Figure 53: Frozen breakfast low/no attributes, by generation, April 2019
                                            • Frozen Breakfast Perceptions

                                              • Consumers have lukewarm feelings about frozen breakfast
                                                • Figure 54: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food perceptions, April 2019
                                                • Figure 55: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
                                              • Parents view frozen breakfast as more nutritious than non-parents
                                                • Figure 56: Frozen breakfast perceptions – Nutritious, April 2019
                                              • Taste is a key driver for Hispanic and Black consumers
                                                • Figure 57: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
                                            • Breakfast Behaviors

                                              • Consumers don’t express strict breakfast habits
                                                • Figure 58: Breakfast behaviors, April 2019
                                              • Millennials most likely to dine out for breakfast
                                                • Figure 59: Breakfast behaviors, by generation, April 2019
                                              • Men dine out more than women
                                                • Figure 60: Breakfast behaviors, by parental status, April 2019
                                            • Innovation to Drive Trial

                                              • Taste and variety will fill the excitement gap
                                                • Figure 61: Trial driving innovation, April 2019
                                              • Frozen breakfast consumers choose protein for satiety
                                                • TURF analysis
                                                  • Flavors, variety and foodservice inspired
                                                    • Figure 62: TURF analysis – Frozen breakfast innovations, April 2019
                                                  • Parents are more eager for innovation
                                                    • Figure 63: Trial driving innovation, by parental status, April 2019
                                                  • (Hispanic) Millennials eager to bring brunch inside the home
                                                    • Figure 64: Trial driving innovation, brunch inspired, by generation, April 2019
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                • Figure 66: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                                • Figure 70: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                • Figure 71: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                • Figure 72: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                • Figure 73: US sales of frozen breakfast foods through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast entrees, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                • Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                • Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                • Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                • Figure 78: Simmons, breakfast attitude, November 2018

                                                            Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2019

                                                            £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)