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Gluten-free Foods - US - October 2018

"Despite a decline in the number of gluten-free consumers, there is a generally positive opinion of gluten-free foods. Consumers consider the claim to indicate the product is healthy and beneficial to all, not solely those who have celiac disease or a gluten intolerance. The challenge for the category is in overcoming an established reputation of being both expensive and an often poor imitation of regular foods. However, recent innovations including novel flour concepts have led to gluten-free products virtually on par with their gluten-containing counterparts."

– William Roberts, Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Fewer consumers eating gluten-free foods
  • Affordability not a significant factor in gluten-free’s decline

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Fewer consumers eating gluten-free foods
            • Figure 1: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2016 versus July 2018
          • Affordability not a significant factor in gluten-free’s decline
            • Figure 2: Opinions of the affordability of gluten-free foods, July 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Leveraging gluten-free’s healthy reputation
              • Figure 3: Opinions of the health of gluten-free foods, July 2018
            • Significant interest among consumers yet to try gluten-free
              • Figure 4: Consumers who do not eat gluten-free foods but who are interested in trying, July 2018
            • Adding variety
              • Figure 5: Gluten-free introductions in the US, by category, 2016-18*
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Downturn for gluten-free
                • Defending gluten-free
                • Market Perspective

                  • Gluten-free popularity begins to wane
                    • Figure 6: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2016 versus July 2018
                • Market Factors

                  • Gluten-free facing a degree of backlash
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Leveraging gluten-free's natural appeal
                      • Decline in gluten-free snacks
                        • Gluten-free as a supportive claim
                        • What’s In?

                          • Avoiding artificial with natural elements
                            • Figure 7: Gluten-free food introductions in the US, by claim, 2013-18*
                            • Figure 8: GMO-free gluten-free introductions in the US, 2017-18
                        • What’s Out?

                          • Gluten-free snack launches decline dramatically
                              • Figure 9: US gluten-free product introductions, by category, 2015-18*
                              • Figure 10: Gluten-free snack introductions in the US, 2017-18
                          • What’s Next?

                            • Promote gluten-free’s potential in other trending diets
                                • Figure 11: Gluten-free paleo/keto-friendly introductions in the US, 2017-18
                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                              • Declining consumption but some potential
                                • Younger consumers purchasing gluten-free from a variety of retailers
                                  • Simple ingredient legends could appeal
                                    • Even loyalists not seeking gluten-free claims on all foods
                                      • Notable interest in gluten-free variety among lower-income consumers
                                        • Leveraging positive gluten-free reputation among younger consumers
                                          • Sizable portion of consumers see gluten-free as a fad
                                            • Trust much more pronounced among category loyalists
                                            • Consumption of Gluten-free Foods

                                              • Notable decline in gluten-free consumers
                                                • Figure 12: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2016 versus July 2018
                                              • Even among gluten-free loyalists, consumption falls
                                                • Figure 13: Consumers eating less gluten-free compared to one year ago, July 2018
                                              • Lower-income consumers showing gluten-free interest
                                                • Figure 14: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by select demographics, June 2016 versus July 2018
                                              • Slight potential to reach gluten-free holdouts
                                                • Figure 15: Consumers who do not eat gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                              • Interest in trying skews strongly younger
                                                • Figure 16: Consumers who do not eat gluten-free foods but who are interested in trying, July 2018
                                            • Gluten-free Purchase Location

                                              • Supermarkets, mass merchandisers most likely locations for purchase
                                                • Figure 17: Gluten-free food purchase location, July 2018
                                              • Younger consumers purchasing from variety of locations
                                                • Figure 18: Gluten-free food purchase location, by age, July 2018
                                            • Reasons for Eating Gluten-free

                                              • Health drives consumption
                                                • Figure 19: Reasons for eating gluten-free, July 2018
                                            • Claims with Potential in Gluten-free Foods

                                              • Protein, natural resonate among gluten-free consumers
                                                • Figure 20: Claims of interest in gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                              • Notable interest in gluten-free’s health attributes among Hispanics
                                                • Figure 21: Claims of interest in gluten-free foods, by Hispanic origin, July 2018
                                              • Healthy, natural gluten-free option would have significant appeal
                                                • Figure 22: TURF analysis – Interest in types of gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                            • Opinions of Gluten-free Foods

                                              • Hit-and-miss interest even among category loyalists
                                                • Figure 23: Opinions of gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                              • Younger consumers more likely to seek other free-from claims, too
                                                • Figure 24: Opinions of gluten-free foods, by age, July 2018
                                            • Buying Gluten-free Foods

                                              • Gluten-free’s expense may be taking a toll
                                                • Figure 25: Opinions of buying gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                              • Strong interest in variety of gluten-free among lower-income consumers
                                                • Figure 26: Opinions of buying gluten-free foods, any agree, by household income, July 2018
                                                • Figure 27: New gluten-free food launches, by category, 2018*
                                            • Health and Gluten-free

                                              • Gluten-free’s positive health reputation
                                                • Figure 28: Opinions of the health of gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                              • Largely positive reputation among younger consumers
                                                • Figure 29: Opinions of the health of gluten-free foods, by age, July 2018
                                            • Opinions of Gluten-free’s Popularity

                                              • Fad opinions remain consistent
                                                • Figure 30: Opinions of the popularity of gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                            • Trust in Gluten-free Claims

                                              • Trust notably more pronounced among gluten-free loyalists
                                                • Figure 31: Opinions of trust in gluten-free food claims, July 2018
                                            • Gluten-free Foods – Cluster Analysis

                                                • Figure 32: Gluten-free cluster group breakdowns, July 2018
                                              • Group 1: Free Fans
                                                • Demographics:
                                                  • Characteristics:
                                                    • Opportunities:
                                                      • Figure 33: Attitudes toward nutritional value of gluten-free foods, by cluster, July 2018
                                                    • Group 2: Gluten Forever
                                                      • Demographics:
                                                        • Characteristics:
                                                          • Opportunities:
                                                            • Figure 34: Attitudes toward nutritional value of gluten-free foods, by the Gluten Forever cluster, July 2018
                                                          • Group 3: The Untested Interested
                                                            • Demographics:
                                                              • Characteristics:
                                                                • Opportunities:
                                                                  • Figure 35: Attitudes toward nutritional value of gluten-free foods, by the Untested Interested cluster, July 2018
                                                                  • Figure 36: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, by interest in types of gluten-free foods, July 2018
                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                      • TURF Analysis – Gluten-free Foods – Methodology

                                                                          • Figure 37: Table - TURF analysis – Interest in types of gluten-free foods, July 2018

                                                                      Gluten-free Foods - US - October 2018

                                                                      US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)