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Description

Description

"Between 2014 and 2019, multi-outlet sales of groceries continued to rise steadily but slowly. The rapid escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in March of 2020, however, gave the industry a jolt, boosting sales in the short term but introducing enormous new challenges as well. While the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unpredictable, it is likely that consumers will continue to favor groceries and home meal prep over foodservice through much of 2020."

- John Owen, Associate Director Food & Retail

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting grocery shopping behavior
  • How the grocery retailing market will perform in the aftermath of the pandemic
  • What grocery retailers are doing to keep shoppers and employees safe during the pandemic
  • How some grocery retailers are working to foster a sense of community during the pandemic and to help consumers cook more creatively from the pantry

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this report
        • Definition
        • Executive Summary

          • Impact of COVID-19 impact on grocery retailing
            • The issues
              • COVID-19 provides at least a short-term boost to grocery sales
                • Figure 1: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2014-24
              • Most grocery shopping still happens in-store, but online is gaining
                • Figure 2: Grocery shopping methods, December 2019
              • Traditional supermarkets remain the top choice
                • Figure 3: In-store retailers for grocery shopping, December 2019
              • The opportunities
                • Sampling and locally grown foods appeal most strongly
                  • Figure 4: Interest in in-store products and services, December 2019
                • List-making still a priority and set to gain momentum amid COVID-19
                  • Figure 5: In-store shopping behaviors, December 2019
                • Opportunity to reinforce young adults’ enjoyment of grocery shopping
                  • Figure 6: Attitudes toward in-store shopping, by age, December 2019
              • The Impact of COVID-19 on Grocery Retailing

                  • Figure 6: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on Grocery Retailing, April 2020
                • Opportunities and threats
                  • Food dollars shift from foodservice to grocery retail
                    • Figure 8: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – food spending, March 2020
                  • Grocery retailers struggle to keep up with demand, keep shoppers, employees safe
                    • More grocery shoppers go online, or try
                      • Figure 9: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, March-April 2020
                    • Shoppers shift from spontaneity to stocking up
                      • Supply chain disruptions will be a growing issue
                        • Opportunity to focus on community support and local foods
                          • Retailers offer ideas
                            • Tentative steps toward normal?
                              • Impact on grocery retailing
                                • Figure 10: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2014-24
                              • How the crisis will affect grocery retail’s key consumer segments
                                • Recession could strengthen young shoppers’ preference for value-driven retailers
                                  • How a COVID-10 recession will reshape the grocery retailing industry
                                    • Other channels outpace supermarkets and are likely to gain further in a recession
                                      • Figure 11: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by channel, at current prices, 2014-24
                                    • The need to economize will drive continued private label growth
                                      • COVID-19: US context
                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                        • Only slow growth prior to COVID-19 pandemic
                                          • The trend reversed in March as consumers stocked up on groceries
                                            • Even before the pandemic, a bias toward cooking at home from scratch
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • COVID-19 provides at least a short-term boost to grocery sales
                                                • Note concerning COVID-19 and this forecast
                                                  • Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2014-24
                                              • Market Breakdown

                                                • Other channels outpace supermarkets and are likely to gain further in a recession
                                                  • Figure 13: Multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by channel, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                • Food and drink likely to extend its dominance of grocery sales
                                                  • Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2014-19
                                              • Market Perspective

                                                • Before COVID-19, foodservice had been gaining on in-home food
                                                  • Figure 15: Sales of in-home food and of dining out, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                • The trend reversed in March as consumers stocked up and cut back on restaurants
                                                  • Figure 16: Coronavirus lifestyle changes related to food and shopping, March-April 2020
                                                • Younger shoppers more likely to stock up on groceries, shop online
                                                  • Figure 17: Coronavirus lifestyle changes related to food and shopping, by age, March 27-April 2, 2020
                                              • Market Factors

                                                • Cooking at home is a necessity amid COVID-19 but can also be rewarding
                                                  • Figure 18: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – food and drink priorities for different meal types, September 2019
                                                • Even before the pandemic, a bias toward cooking at home from scratch
                                                  • Figure 19: Meal type frequency, August 2019
                                                  • Figure 20: Eating habits, by age, September 2019
                                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                • Offering a little help
                                                  • The blurring of grocery retail and foodservice
                                                    • Tentative steps toward normal or steps in a new direction?
                                                    • What to Watch

                                                      • Offering a little help
                                                        • Trader Joe’s
                                                          • Figure 21: Trader Joe’s Stay at Home Soup Instagram post, April 2020
                                                        • Mariano’s Meet-Ups
                                                          • Jungle Jim’s
                                                            • Northgate González Market
                                                              • Blurring of grocery retail and foodservice, with a focus on local
                                                              • What’s Next

                                                                • Tentative steps toward normal?
                                                                  • Or steps in a new direction
                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                    • Shopping frequency likely declining amid COVID-19
                                                                      • Most grocery shopping still happens in-store, but online is gaining
                                                                        • Supermarkets still the top choice, but younger shoppers look elsewhere
                                                                          • Shopper channel preferences reflect range of strategic priorities
                                                                            • List-making still a priority and set to gain momentum amid COVID-19
                                                                              • Typical frustrations grow more significant amid COVID-19 crisis
                                                                                • Opportunity to reinforce young adults’ enjoyment of grocery shopping
                                                                                  • Sampling and locally grown foods appeal most strongly
                                                                                    • Interest in saving money and time will help drive use of shopping apps
                                                                                    • Grocery Shopping Overview

                                                                                      • Most adults do at least some grocery shopping
                                                                                        • Figure 22: Grocery shopping responsibility, by gender and age, December 2019
                                                                                      • Shopping frequency likely declining amid COVID-19
                                                                                        • Figure 23: Grocery shopping frequency, by gender and age, December 2019
                                                                                      • Most grocery shopping still happens in-store, but online is gaining
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Grocery shopping methods, by age, household income, and household size, December 2019
                                                                                      • Major categories online vs in-store
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Major grocery categories online vs instore, December 2019
                                                                                    • In-store retailers for Grocery Shopping

                                                                                      • Traditional supermarkets remain the top choice
                                                                                        • Figure 26: In-store retailers for grocery shopping, December 2019
                                                                                      • Younger shoppers more likely to make Walmart their top grocery choice
                                                                                        • Figure 27: In-store retailers for grocery shopping – Top three, by age, December 2019
                                                                                    • Reasons for Selecting In-store Retailer Used Most Often

                                                                                      • Proximity a key deciding factor in store selection
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Reasons for selecting in-store retailer used most often, December 2019
                                                                                      • Older shoppers especially likely to value proximity and quality
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Reasons for selecting in-store retailer used most often, by age, December 2019
                                                                                      • Shopper channel preferences reflect range of strategic priorities
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Reasons for selecting in-store retailer used most often, by in-store retailer used most often, December 2019
                                                                                    • In-store Shopping Behaviors

                                                                                      • List-making still a priority and set to gain momentum amid COVID-19
                                                                                        • Modest adoption of streamlined checkout options
                                                                                          • Figure 31: In-store shopping behaviors, December 2019
                                                                                        • Older shoppers more likely to follow a set shopping routine
                                                                                          • Figure 32: In-store shopping behaviors, by age, December 2019
                                                                                      • Frustrations with In-store Shopping

                                                                                        • Typical frustrations grow more significant amid COVID-19 crisis
                                                                                          • Time spent in the store
                                                                                            • Out-of-stock products
                                                                                              • Figure 33: Frustrations with in-store shopping, by age, December 2019
                                                                                          • Attitudes toward In-store Grocery Shopping

                                                                                            • A generally positive view of in-store shopping
                                                                                                • Figure 34: Attitudes toward in-store shopping, December 2019
                                                                                              • Opportunity to reinforce young adults’ enjoyment of grocery shopping
                                                                                                • Figure 35: Attitudes toward in-store shopping, by age, December 2019
                                                                                              • Warehouse club and discount grocer shoppers likely to appreciate store brands
                                                                                                • Shopping experience key in competition between traditional and natural supermarkets
                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Attitudes toward in-store shopping, by in-store retailer used most often, December 2019
                                                                                              • Interest in In-store Products and Services

                                                                                                • Sampling and locally grown foods appeal most strongly
                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Interest in in-store products and services, December 2019
                                                                                                • Natural supermarket shoppers most interested in fresh produce concepts
                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Interest in in-store products and services, by in-store retailer used most often, December 2019
                                                                                              • Interest in Shopping App Functions

                                                                                                • Interest in saving money and time will help drive use of shopping apps
                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Interest in shopping app functions, by age, December 2019
                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                • Data sources
                                                                                                  • Sales data
                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                        • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                              • Terms
                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Supermarket sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Food and drink priorities for different meal types, September 2019

                                                                                                              About the report

                                                                                                              This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                              • The Consumer

                                                                                                                What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                              • The Competitors

                                                                                                                Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                              • The Market

                                                                                                                Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                              • The Innovations

                                                                                                                New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                              • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                              • The Trends

                                                                                                                What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                              Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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