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Description

Description

“With wellbeing, value and convenience top-of-mind, cereal brands have more than one path to staying relevant with shoppers. After years of declines and stagnation, the cereal category returned to sales growth in 2020 due to COVID-19. Sudden and enduring shifts in daily, especially morning, routines impacted the cereal category, with increased consumption of breakfast and other meals taking place at home. Both hot and cold cereal brands were beneficiaries, finding gains in 2020, yet the accelerated rate of growth is expected to be somewhat short-lived. Still, brands have an opportunity to turn renewed category engagement into continued residual engagement. The cereal category boasts a wide range of products with equally diverse audience, perceptions of health and even occasion indicating that there is something for everyone.”

– Kaitlin Kamp, Food and Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the hot and cold cereal market
  • Hot and cold cereal lessons from past recessions
  • Consumer consumption of and attitudes toward hot and cold cereal
  • The importance of health, snacking and experience on the category

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Definition
          • COVID-19: Market context
            • Economic and other assumptions
            • Executive Summary

                • Top takeaways
                  • Market overview
                    • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                    • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                  • Impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal
                    • Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal, September 2020
                  • Opportunities and Challenges
                    • Re-emergence (July 2020–December 2021)
                      • Recovery (2022-2025)
                        • Figure 4: Healthy breakfast, April 2018
                        • Figure 5: Interest in cereal innovation, June 2020
                    • The Market – Key Takeaways

                      • COVID-19 gives cereal a much-needed, but fleeting boost
                        • A recession poses opportunities and challenges
                          • Jump on the snacking occasion
                            • Give parents a helping hand
                            • Market Size and Forecast

                              • COVID-19 gives cereal sales a temporary lift
                                • Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                              • Macroeconomic Factors
                                • Figure 8: Expected US unemployment, 2019-2025
                                • Figure 9: Consumer sentiment index, January 2019-2020
                              • Impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal
                                • Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal, September 2020
                              • Lockdown
                                • Re-emergence
                                  • Recovery
                                    • COVID-19: US context
                                      • Learnings from the last recession
                                      • Segment Performance

                                        • Segment boosts are short-term but will have a positive long-term impact
                                          • Cold cereal falls into the same patterns, but with elevated sales
                                            • Hot cereal sustains some growth before falling flat
                                              • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
                                          • Market Factors

                                            • Breakfast the most important meal of the day . . . again?
                                              • Figure 12: Breakfast types, during COVID-19, June 2020
                                              • Figure 13: Parental employment status during COVID-19, June 2020
                                            • Fewer kids means fewer bowls of cereal
                                              • Figure 14: Households, by presence of related children, 2009-19
                                            • Online grocery retailing may prevent browsing
                                              • Figure 15: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
                                            • PepsiCo tackles sequencing the oat genome
                                              • Three’s a crowd: Post, Treehouse and the FTC
                                              • Market Opportunities

                                                • Make it functional
                                                  • Figure 16: Indulgent cereal products
                                                • Consider a pivot to snacking
                                                  • Figure 17: Kellogg’s Jumbo Snax
                                                • Tap into baking
                                                  • Figure 18: Quaker baking posts
                                                • Help parents through COVID-19 anxiety
                                                  • Figure 19: Worry over COVID-19 impact on lifestyle, July 28-August 4
                                              • Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

                                                • Small players outpace category leaders
                                                  • Hot cereal players should be on the lookout for private label
                                                    • A time for breakfast to shine
                                                      • Brands from other categories step into cereal
                                                      • Market Share

                                                        • Small players pick up steam during COVID-19
                                                          • Figure 20: US multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Cold cereal growth concentrated in flagship brands and smaller players
                                                          • Figure 21: US multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Hot cereal brands see widespread success, thanks to a boost in breakfast
                                                          • Figure 22: US multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                      • Competitive Strategies

                                                        • Appealing to breakfast priorities
                                                          • Figure 23: Important breakfast attributes, June 2020
                                                          • Figure 24: MULO sales of better-for-you cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2019
                                                        • Cross-category indulgence has cross appeal
                                                          • Figure 25: Indulgent cereal products
                                                        • Pebbles lends parents a helping hand with Daily Yabba Dabba Doo series
                                                          • Figure 26: Pebbles cereal daily yabba dabba doo series
                                                      • The Consumer – Key Takeaways

                                                        • Cereal maintains its place as a household staple
                                                          • COVID-19 highlights the convenience of cereal . . .
                                                            • . . . but breakfast competition remains steep
                                                              • Reinforce the fun of cereal
                                                                • Non-breakfast occasions need attention
                                                                  • Balance health and flavor
                                                                  • Cereal Consumption

                                                                    • Lightly sweetened cold cereal remains the popular choice
                                                                      • Figure 27: Cereal consumption, NET, cereal consumption, June 2020
                                                                    • Profile of the heavy, moderate and light cereal consumer
                                                                      • Figure 28: Cereal consumption repertoire, by age and gender, parental status by gender and household size, June 2020
                                                                    • Consumers age out of sweetened options
                                                                      • Expand sweetened occasions to keep younger consumers engaged
                                                                        • Increase BFY awareness to give older consumers more options
                                                                          • Figure 29: Cereal consumption, by age, June 2020
                                                                      • Change in Cereal Consumption

                                                                        • Most consumers hold steady for both hot and cold cereal
                                                                          • Figure 30: Change in cereal consumption, NET, June 2020
                                                                        • Health, flavor at play in changed consumption
                                                                          • Figure 31: Change in cereal consumption, June 2020
                                                                          • Figure 32: BFY cereals with fun flavors
                                                                        • Maintain the momentum with young consumers, parents
                                                                          • Figure 33: Change in cereal consumption, any cereal, by age, June 2020
                                                                          • Figure 34: Change in cereal consumption, by parental status and gender, June 2020
                                                                      • Reasons for Increased Consumption

                                                                        • COVID-19 behaviors influence consumption
                                                                          • Figure 35: Reasons for increased consumption, June 2020
                                                                        • Younger consumers leaning on cereal for ease, versatility
                                                                          • Figure 36: Reasons for increased consumption, by age, June 2020
                                                                      • Reasons for Decreased Consumption

                                                                        • Breakfast competition is steep
                                                                          • Figure 37: Reasons for decreased consumption, June 2020
                                                                      • Cereal Attitudes

                                                                        • The experience of cereal can be strengthened
                                                                          • Figure 38: Cereal attitudes, June 2020
                                                                          • Figure 39: Cereal attitudes, consumption repertoire, June 2020
                                                                        • Engage young consumers with fun, older consumers with wellbeing
                                                                          • Figure 40: Cereal attitudes, by age, June 2020
                                                                        • Nutrient-dense options can edge into BFY snacking
                                                                          • Figure 41: Cereal attitudes, by cereal consumption, June 2020
                                                                      • Cereal Occasions

                                                                        • Lean into snacking, treating yourself
                                                                          • Figure 42: Cereal usage, NET, June 2020
                                                                          • Figure 43: Cereal usage, June 2020
                                                                        • Encourage younger consumers to reach for cereal as a treat, older consumers to double down on breakfast
                                                                          • Figure 44: Cereal usage, NET, by age, June 2020
                                                                        • COVID-19 calls for recipe inspiration
                                                                          • Figure 45: Cereal usage, by parental status and gender, June 2020
                                                                      • Interest in New Product Trial

                                                                        • Inspire product trial with BFY
                                                                          • Figure 46: Interest in new product trial, June 2020
                                                                        • BFY innovation should stick to BFY cereals
                                                                          • Figure 47: Innovation to drive trial by cereal consumption, June 2020
                                                                        • TURF Analysis: Balance health and flavor
                                                                          • Figure 48: TURF analysis – product features interest, June 2020
                                                                        • Innovation will serve core users
                                                                          • Figure 49: Innovation to drive trial, consumption repertoire, June 2020
                                                                        • Play up the flavor experience for younger consumers
                                                                          • Figure 50: Innovation to drive trial, by age, June 2020
                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                        • Data sources
                                                                          • Sales data
                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                      • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                                                                      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal chart, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal chart, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                  • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                                                      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                      • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                                                                      • Figure 62: US supermarket sales of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                      • Figure 63: US sales of hot and cold cereal through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20

                                                                                  About the report

                                                                                  This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                  • The Consumer

                                                                                    What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                  • The Competitors

                                                                                    Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                  • The Market

                                                                                    Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                  • The Innovations

                                                                                    New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                  • The Opportunities

                                                                                    Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                  • The Trends

                                                                                    What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                  Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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