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Hot and Cold Cereal - US - September 2017

"As more consumers prioritize quick, healthy, portable breakfast foods that keep them full and energized, the cereal category continues to decline. Still, cereal remains a huge category with near-universal penetration. The key to reinvigorating the cereal category may lie less in trying to fix its inherent shortcomings than leveraging its strongest asset: great taste."

- John Owen, Sr. Analyst, Food and Drink

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Steady declines continue for cereal category
  • Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
  • Breakfast remains a foundation

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Steady declines continue for cereal category
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
            • Figure 2: Cereal consumption, June 2017
          • Breakfast remains a foundation
            • Figure 3: Cereal use occasions, June 2017
          • The opportunities
            • An opportunity to increase snacking consumption among young adults
              • Figure 4: Cereal use occasions, by age, June 2017
            • Encouraging cereal customization
              • Figure 5: Behaviors, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal and hot oatmeal, June 2017
            • Stronger attitudes among young adults point to problems and opportunities
              • Figure 6: Attitudes – Any agree, by age, June 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Steady declines continue for cereal category
                • Hot cereal sales turn negative, consistent with trend in cold cereal
                • Market Size and Forecast

                  • Steady declines continue for cereal category
                    • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
                • Market Breakdown

                  • Cold cereal dominates category sales
                    • Figure 9: Share of hot and cold cereal, by segment, 2017
                  • Hot cereal sales turn negative, consistent with trend in cold cereal
                    • Figure 10: Sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, 2016-17
                • Market Perspective

                  • Widening array of alternatives for breakfast
                    • Figure 11: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
                  • Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for frozen breakfast options
                    • Figure 12: US population by Hispanic origin, 2017
                  • Number of households with children continues decline
                    • Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                  • Top sugary cereals maintain growth
                    • A few small competitors thrive in category dominated by giants
                      • Store brands fall faster than rest of category
                        • Better-for-you brands pace category decline
                        • Company Sales of Hot and Cold Cereal

                          • Big four dominate category
                            • Kellogg’s mains top spot
                              • Dual focus on health and taste for General Mills
                                • PepsiCo cereal sales slow
                                  • Sales of hot and cold cereal by company
                                    • Figure 14: Sales of hot and cold cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Malt-O-Meal bagged cereals gain momentum under Post ownership
                                    • Top sugary cereals maintain growth
                                        • Figure 15: MULO sales of select sweetened cereals, 2017
                                      • A few small competitors thrive in category dominated by giants
                                        • Nature’s Path focuses on organic cold and hot cereal
                                          • Bob’s Red Mill highlights whole grains and traditional milling methods
                                            • KIND increases presence in cereal aisle
                                            • What’s Struggling?

                                              • Store brands fall faster than rest of category
                                                • Better-for-you brands pace category decline
                                                • What’s Next?

                                                  • Kellogg’s NYC an effort to ignite cereal creativity
                                                    • Personalized cereal
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
                                                        • Breakfast remains a foundation
                                                          • Taste outweighs other factors by a wide margin
                                                            • Younger adults more likely to be interested in variety
                                                              • Untapped potential for snacking
                                                              • Cereal Consumption

                                                                • Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
                                                                  • Figure 16: Cereal consumption, June 2017
                                                                • Young adults eat wider variety of cereals
                                                                  • Figure 17: Cereal consumption, by age, June 2017
                                                                • Many report increasing consumption of healthy cereals
                                                                  • Figure 18: Changes in cereal consumption, June 2017
                                                              • Use Occasions

                                                                • Breakfast remains a foundation
                                                                  • Figure 19: Cereal use occasions, June 2017
                                                                • An opportunity to increase snacking consumption among young adults
                                                                  • Figure 20: Cereal use occasions, by age, June 2017
                                                                • More occasions for those increasing consumption
                                                                  • Figure 21: Cereal use occasions, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal, June 2017
                                                              • Purchase Factors

                                                                • Taste outweighs other factors by a wide margin
                                                                  • Figure 22: Purchase factors – Cold cereal, June 2017
                                                                  • Figure 23: Purchase factors – Hot cereal, June 2017
                                                                • Purchase factors signal generational shift in dietary preferences
                                                                  • Figure 24: Purchase factors – Cold cereal, by age, June 2017
                                                                • Health perception may be driving increased hot cereal consumption
                                                                  • Figure 25: Purchase factors – Hot cereal, by change in hot oatmeal consumption, June 2017
                                                              • Behaviors

                                                                • Younger adults more likely to be interested in variety
                                                                  • Figure 26: Behaviors, by age, June 2017
                                                                • Opportunity to encourage greater cereal creativity
                                                                  • Figure 27: Behaviors, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal and hot oatmeal, June 2017
                                                              • Attitudes

                                                                • Untapped potential for snacking
                                                                  • Figure 28: Attitudes, June 2017
                                                                • Stronger attitudes among young adults point to problems and opportunities
                                                                  • Positives: a great snack, childhood favorites
                                                                    • Negatives: not filling or portable enough
                                                                      • Figure 29: Attitudes – Any agree, by age, June 2017
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 34: Sales of cold cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Sales of hot cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017

                                                                                Hot and Cold Cereal - US - September 2017

                                                                                US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)