Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

Hot and Cold Cereal - US - September 2019

"The hot and cold cereal category continues to experience consistent declines, hitting a five-year sales low of $10.3 billion in 2019 following a modest 1% decrease from 2018. The cold segment dominates cereal sales, and its performance largely influences category success or lack thereof, to no avail of hot cereal’s stability. Growth in the category will rely on moving past the breakfast occasion, embracing indulgence where applicable and holistic wellness innovation in less-indulgent segments."
- Kaitlin Kamp, Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Cereal sales continue to decline
  • Non-parents less engaged in the category
  • Consumers’ health expectations at breakfast may be unattainable for the category

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Key takeaways
          • The issues
            • Cereal sales continue to decline
              • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
            • Non-parents less engaged in the category
              • Figure 2: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by parental status, May 2019
            • Consumers’ health expectations at breakfast may be unattainable for the category
              • Figure 3: Reasons for decreased consumption, May 2019
            • The opportunities
              • Break up with breakfast
                • Figure 4: Hot and cold cereal behavior, May 2019
              • Give BFY cereal a holistic boost
                • Figure 5: Interest in innovation, May 2019
              • Embrace your space
                • Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Cereal associations, May 2019
              • Keeping adults in mind
                • Figure 7: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, by age, May 2019
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category sales continue to dwindle
                • Cereal struggles to compete on portability
                  • Snacking an opportunity in more ways than one
                    • Anti-sugar attitudes not necessarily a dead end
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Cereal sales continue to slowly ebb away
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Hot cereal begins to follow cold cereal’s downward slope
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Convenience wins out in breakfast products
                        • Figure 11: Breakfast consumption, by age, April 2018
                      • Cereal brands looking to other categories to drive growth
                      • Market Factors

                        • Breakfast losing its title
                          • Figure 12: Meal statements, 2016 and 2018
                        • BFY attributes a stretch for most cereals to reach
                          • Figure 13: Health attributes sought, May 2018
                        • Snacking opens up opportunities
                          • Figure 14: Snack motivations, November 2018
                        • Fewer households with children may require increased adult engagement
                          • Figure 15: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Post embraces indulgence, wins
                          • Indulgent cereals are defying the odds
                            • Functional benefits provide a health halo for the cereal category
                              • Fun, adult-friendly cereal on the horizon
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Hot and Cold Cereal

                                • Post makes impressive gains by leaning into indulgence and novelty
                                  • Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                • Cold cereal brand power remains strong
                                  • Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                • Smaller brands chip away at Quaker and Cream of Wheat share
                                  • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Leaning into the indulgent truth
                                  • Figure 19: MULO sales of heavily sweetened cold cereal brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018
                                • Functional benefits give cereal a BFY boost
                                  • Figure 20: MULO sales of functional cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
                                  • Figure 21: Number of hot and cold cereals with functional claims, percentage change 2016-18
                                • The middle ground is a good place for lightly sweetened brands to play
                                  • Figure 22: MULO sales of functional cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Grains and organic claims take the fun out of cold boxed cereal
                                  • Figure 23: Struggling cereal brands with grain-based products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
                                • Diet is a four letter word
                                  • Figure 24: Struggling legacy diet brand products, rolling 52 weeks 2018
                              • What’s Next?

                                • Putting the fun in functional
                                  • Figure 25: Leading adult-friendly cereal
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • Maintaining consumption in adulthood a challenge
                                  • BFY eating hurts and helps cereal consumption
                                    • Expanding cereal occasions
                                      • Sweetened cereal’s unhealthy reputation may not call for action
                                      • Types of Hot and Cold Cereal Consumed

                                        • Lightly sweetened stands strong in cereal consumption
                                          • Figure 26: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
                                        • Parents report increased and broader household consumption
                                          • Figure 27: Repertoire of hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
                                          • Figure 28: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by parental status, May 2019
                                        • Men and women consume the same, but motivations differ
                                          • Figure 29: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by gender, May 2019
                                          • Figure 30: Reasons for increased consumption, I am treating myself with it more, by gender, May 2019
                                        • Consumption changes with age
                                          • Figure 31: Repertoire of hot and cold cereal consumption type, May 2019
                                          • Figure 32: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by age, May 2019
                                        • Millennials aren’t killing cereal, but keep an eye on Gens X and Z
                                          • Figure 33: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by generation, May 2019
                                        • Hispanic households consume more oats
                                          • Figure 34: Hot and cold cereal consumption type, by Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                      • Hot and Cold Cereal Consumption

                                        • Cereal still a household staple but frequency falls away
                                          • Figure 35: Hot and cold cereal consumption, May 2019
                                        • Prevent parents from pulling back
                                          • Figure 36: Hot and cold cereal consumption, gender and parental status, reported “myself,” May 2019
                                        • Adult consumption decreases by household size
                                          • Figure 37: Hot and cold cereal consumption by household size, May 2019
                                      • Change in Hot and Cold Cereal Consumption

                                        • More consumers increasing than decreasing consumption
                                          • Figure 38: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, May 2019
                                        • Both hot and cold sweetened cereals see the attrition
                                          • High fiber, nutrient-dense cereal making its way into consumers’ diets
                                            • Figure 39: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, May 2019
                                          • Consumption changes vary by age
                                            • Figure 40: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, net, by age, May 2019
                                          • Parents increasing consumption more than non-parents
                                            • Figure 41: Change in hot and cold cereal consumption, by age of children in household, May 2019
                                        • Reasons for Increased Consumption

                                          • Occasions a large driver for increased consumption
                                            • Figure 42: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
                                            • Figure 43: Breakfast attributes, April 2018
                                          • Hot cereal primed for expanded meal occasions
                                            • Figure 44: Types of cereal consumed by reasons for increased consumption, eating it for meals other than breakfast more, May 2019
                                          • Hispanics treating themselves with cereal
                                            • Figure 45: Reasons for increased consumption, treating myself with it more, by Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                        • Reasons for Decreased Consumption

                                          • Consumers are looking to other categories for their breakfast fix
                                            • Specialized diets remain niche, but not unimportant
                                              • Figure 46: Reasons for decreased consumption, May 2019
                                          • Hot and Cold Cereal Behavior

                                            • Moving beyond breakfast can offset the duplicity of the category
                                              • Low away-from-home usage indicates portability needs a boost
                                                • Figure 47: Hot and cold cereal behavior, May 2019
                                                • Figure 48: Hot and cold cereal consumption by behavior, May 2019
                                              • Younger consumers are more apt to be versatile in occasions
                                                • Figure 49: Hot and cold cereal behavior, by age, May 2019
                                              • Parents consuming more across occasions
                                                • Figure 50: Hot and cold cereal behavior, by parental status, May 2019
                                            • Hot and Cold Cereal Perceptions

                                              • Unboxing health perceptions
                                                • High fiber options fare well
                                                  • To improve health perceptions or not?
                                                    • Figure 51: Hot and cold cereal associations, May 2019
                                                    • Figure 52: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Cereal associations, May 2019
                                                  • Satiety challenges require an R&D boost
                                                    • Figure 53: Hot and cold cereal associations, filling, May 2019
                                                  • Portable, on-the-go format an opportunity for growth
                                                    • Figure 54: Hot and cold cereal associations, portable and good to eat on the go, May 2019
                                                  • Health perceptions differ by age
                                                    • Figure 55: Hot and cold cereal associations, by age, May 2019
                                                  • Lightly sweetened surpasses in convenience among older consumers
                                                    • Figure 56: Hot and cold cereal associations, lightly sweetened cereal, by age, May 2019
                                                  • Engaging adults with nostalgia
                                                    • Figure 57: Hot and cold cereal associations, nostalgia, by generation, May 2019
                                                • Interest in Innovation

                                                  • Holistic wellness an entry to the BFY consumer
                                                    • Figure 58: Innovation to drive trial, May 2019
                                                  • TURF analysis
                                                    • Figure 59: TURF analysis – Product features interest, May 2019
                                                  • Gut health gaining traction
                                                    • Figure 60: Social mentions of probiotics, prebiotics and postbiotics, July 2018-19
                                                  • Older consumers may be hard to convince
                                                    • Figure 61: Innovation to drive trial, by age, May 2019
                                                  • Packaging more of a priority for parents
                                                    • Figure 62: Innovation to drive trial, by parental status, May 2019
                                                  • Dads eager for added protein
                                                    • Figure 63: Innovation to drive trial, by gender and parental status, added protein, May 2019
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • TURF Methodology
                                                          • Repertoire methodology
                                                            • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                      • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 65: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 70: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                      • Figure 71: Simmons, breakfast attitude, November 2018

                                                                  Hot and Cold Cereal - US - September 2019

                                                                  £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)