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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - April 2018

"While consumers strive to live healthier lifestyles, strong engagement in the category suggests that there is still room for indulgence. Yet, the ice cream and frozen novelties category attained modest dollar sales growth from 2016-17 while unit volume slowed, indicating that increased consumption frequency is critical to growing the category. A challenge to the category is the abundance of sweets that can satisfy indulgent cravings yet can offer more portability or spontaneity. Larger segments (ice cream and frozen novelties), particularly decadent products that seem synonymous with premium, carry the category, while frozen yogurts struggle. This suggests that the key to balancing consumer desire for indulgence and healthier qualities is not just about less (fat or calories) but also sometimes about real."
- Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Modest dollar sales growth amid declining volume sales
  • Strong, yet slower participation 
  • Consumers have established favorites

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Modest dollar sales growth amid declining volume sales
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Strong, yet slower participation
            • Figure 2: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
          • Consumers have established favorites
            • Figure 3: Frozen treat behaviors, consumption frequency and brand and flavor loyalty, February 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Young adults, parents are core consumers of frozen treats
              • Figure 4: Frozen treat purchase, by age and parental status, February 2018
            • Decadence equates to premium
              • Figure 5: Frozen treat attitudes, premium and indulgent options, February 2018
            • Consumers seeking healthy indulgence on their terms
              • Figure 6: Frozen treat attitudes, taste and health, February 2018
            • Continue to engage consumers with innovation that excites
              • Figure 7: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Dollar sales grow, unit volume struggle
                • Most sales come from ice cream, frozen novelties
                  • Adjacent categories, foodservice sources of competition and inspiration
                    • Health issues a cause for concern
                      • Parents a strong target
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Category sales surpass $13 billion in 2017
                          • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Ice cream and frozen novelties dominate the category
                          • Figure 10: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                          • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Multi-outlet unit sales fall in all segments
                          • Figure 12: Multi-outlet volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2012-17
                        • Most sales in category come from supermarkets
                          • Figure 13: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Consumers treat themselves with snacks
                          • Figure 14: Snacking motivations, March 2017
                        • Other sweets deliver on indulgence, portability
                          • Figure 15: Total US sales of selected food categories, at current prices, 2015-17
                        • Foodservice offers inspiration, opportunity
                          • Figure 16: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select menu item claims, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
                          • Figure 17: Ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treats, select flavors of ingredient, by menu incidence change, Q4 2015-17
                      • Market Factors

                        • Health issues in America continue to rise
                          • Figure 18: Growth in health issues in the US, obesity and diabetes, 2013-15
                        • Children, teens influential in category
                          • Figure 19: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Child eats and ice cream toppings – Child uses
                          • Figure 20: Food – Snack/dessert: ice cream – Teen eats and ice cream toppings – Teen uses
                        • Core consumers impacted by important milestones
                          • Figure 21: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2017
                        • Declining household size forecast to recover
                          • Figure 22: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Top companies lose share to smaller category players
                          • Indulgence, premiumization play well in category
                            • Internationally inspired, dairy-free innovation
                            • Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties

                              • Unilever and Nestlé continue dominance in category
                                • Massive growth for Eden Creamery and Blue Bell Creameries
                                  • Private label share continues to shrink, “other” brands show growth
                                    • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Decadence, quality drive sales
                                    • Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, and sherbet/sorbet/ices, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by growing premium brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • Reducing guilt
                                    • Figure 28: Halo Top TV advertisement – “My Territory”
                                    • Figure 29: Arctic Zero TV advertisement – “Get Your Dessert On”
                                    • Figure 30: Lifestyle statements: attitudes/opinions about food, eating sweets – Any agree
                                    • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 32: Purchase intelligence of ice cream and frozen novelties, by presence or lack of claims, low/no/reduced fat, low/no/reduced sugar, low/no/reduced calories, January 2017-February 2018
                                  • Increasing transparency
                                    • Figure 33: Outshined Fruit Bars TV advertisement – “Choose Outshine”
                                    • Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, low/no/reduced sugar, calories, or fat, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 35: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by claims, low/no reduced allergen, gluten-free, GMO-free, and hormone-free, 2014-17
                                  • Smaller portions
                                    • Figure 36: Blue Bunny TV Advertisement – “In the House”
                                    • Figure 37: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by growing brands, pint or snack size, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 38: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, cups/tubs, by total pack size, 2014-17
                                  • Social media inspires passion for frozen treat brands
                                      • Figure 39: Average passion scores, by select ice cream brands, March 2017-18
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Declining sub-segments suffer from lack of innovation, indulgence
                                      • Figure 40: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, ice milk/frozen dairy desserts, and ice pop novelties, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Figure 41: Launches of frozen yogurt, ice pops, and complete desserts, 2014-17
                                      • Figure 42: Purchase intelligence of select frozen yogurt, ice pop, and ice milk/frozen dairy products, January 2017-February 2018
                                    • Store brands struggle to stand out
                                      • Figure 43: Multi-outlet sales of private label ice cream and frozen novelties, by segments, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Figure 44: Purchase intent of select private label products
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Dairy-free options
                                      • Figure 45: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by dairy-free, 2014-17
                                    • Global inspiration
                                      • Figure 46: My/Mo online video – “Ripe Strawberry MyMo Mochi Ice Cream”
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Ice cream enjoys nearly universal penetration
                                      • Consumers stick to what they know, enjoy best
                                        • Premium and decadence go hand-in-hand
                                          • BFY options offer less guilt, less taste
                                            • Widespread interest in category innovation
                                            • Frozen Treat Purchase

                                              • Most consumers indulge with ice cream
                                                • Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase, February 2018
                                              • Habits don’t limit participation
                                                • Figure 48: Repertoire of frozen treat purchase, February 2018
                                              • Room to increase consumption frequency
                                                • Figure 49: Frozen treat purchase frequency, February 2018
                                              • Younger consumers buy across products
                                                • Figure 50: Frozen treat purchase, by age, February 2018
                                              • Children influence parents’ diverse selections
                                                • Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2018
                                              • Large households enjoy portioned options
                                                • Figure 52: Frozen treat purchase, by household size, February 2018
                                            • Frozen Treat Behaviors

                                              • Category participants grounded in tradition
                                                • Figure 53: Frozen treat behaviors, February 2018
                                                • Figure 54: Frozen treat behaviors, by frozen treat behaviors, total and eat them once a week, February 2018
                                              • Older consumers loyal, younger consumers still experimental
                                                • Figure 55: Frozen treat behaviors, by gender and age, February 2018
                                              • Parents seek variety
                                                • Figure 56: Frozen treat behaviors, by parental status, February 2018
                                            • Emotional Connection to Frozen Treats

                                              • Despite seasonality, emotional connections occur year-round
                                                • Figure 57: Emotional connection to frozen treats, February 2018
                                              • Heavy users seek variety with consistency, emotions drive impulse purchases
                                                • Figure 58: Frozen treat behaviors, by emotional connection to frozen treats, eat them the same amount year-round and eat them more during emotional low/high points, February 2018
                                              • Men more consistent in consumption of frozen treats
                                                • Figure 59: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by gender, February 2018
                                              • Younger generations emotional, nostalgic about frozen treats
                                                • Figure 60: Emotional connection to frozen treats, by generation, February 2018
                                            • Frozen Treat Attributes

                                              • Clear overlaps between decadence and quality, healthfulness and permissibility
                                                • Figure 61: Correspondence analysis – Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
                                                • Figure 62: Frozen treat attributes, February 2018
                                              • Restaurant brands appeal to younger consumers
                                                • Figure 63: Frozen treat attributes, restaurant brand, by age, February 2018
                                              • Packaging is paramount for parents
                                                • Figure 64: Frozen treat attributes, high-quality packaging and small packaging size, by age, February 2018
                                            • Frozen Treat Attitudes

                                              • Frozen novelty format ideal for snacking
                                                • Figure 65: Frozen treat attitudes, February 2018
                                              • High-quality, decadent frozen treats tempting to younger men
                                                • Figure 66: Frozen treat attitudes, by gender and age, February 2018
                                              • Parents enjoy convenient, premium, and indulgent options
                                                • Figure 67: Frozen treat attitudes, by parental status, February 2018
                                            • Frozen Treat Innovation

                                              • Significant interest in category innovation
                                                • Figure 68: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, February 2018
                                                • Figure 69: Frozen treat innovation, by frozen treat types, February 2018
                                              • Younger consumers, parents interested across innovation features
                                                • Figure 70: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by generation, February 2018
                                                • Figure 71: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by parental status, February 2018
                                              • Hispanics and Asian consumers want variety
                                                • Figure 72: Frozen treat innovation, any frozen treat, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2018
                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                              • Data sources
                                                • Sales data
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                          • Terms
                                                          • Appendix – The Market

                                                              • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 75: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                              • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 81: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                              • Figure 86: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
                                                              • Figure 87: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                              • Figure 88: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Figure 89: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                              • Figure 90: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                          • Appendix – Key Players

                                                              • Figure 91: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                              • Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                              • Figure 93: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                              • Figure 94: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet, sorbet, ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                          Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - April 2018

                                                          US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)