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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - May 2019

"Ice cream and frozen novelties are still freezer staples. However, sales in this mature market are mostly static. While traditional ice cream leads market share, shifts are in the works: the frozen yogurt/non-dairy segment has posted solid gains, aligning with broader consumer movement to incorporate plant-based foods into their diets. Frozen novelties are another bright spot, latching on to the broader snacking trend."
- Mimi Bonnett, Director - Food and Drink, Foodservice

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Limited room to grow
  • The market is cluttered and complex
  • Consumers are impulse driven – even in planned purchases
  • Don’t forget the grown-ups
  • Value-added innovation may cast the widest net

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Overview
          • The issues
            • Limited room to grow
              • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
            • The market is cluttered and complex
              • Figure 2: Drivers for frozen treat trial, January 2019
            • Consumers are impulse driven – even in planned purchases
              • Figure 3: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
            • The opportunities
              • Don’t forget the grown-ups
                • Figure 4: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, parents and kids, January 2019
              • Value-added innovation may cast the widest net
                • Figure 5: Drivers for frozen treat trial, by generation, January 2019
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Slow but steady?
                  • Novelties, fro-yo on the go
                    • Food service – friend or foe?
                      • Consumers pour on plant-based milks
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Flat growth expected to continue
                          • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Growth seen in novelties, frozen yogurt/nondairy
                          • Figure 8: Total estimated US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2018
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Other channels outpace growth in traditional supermarkets
                          • Figure 10: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                      • Market Perspective

                          • Figure 11: Percent of total consumer expenditures for food at home and away from home, 2010-18*
                          • Figure 12: Top 10 ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treat flavors, by menu incidence, Q418
                        • Ice cream with a kick?
                          • Figure 13: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by functional claim, 2016-18
                      • Market Factors

                        • Continued concerns about health
                          • Figure 14: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
                        • Snacking on the rise
                          • Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
                        • Frothy market for plant-based, non-dairy milks could point the way
                          • Figure 16: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
                        • Shifting household make up could spell change for brands
                          • Figure 17: Population by age, 2013-23
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Leader board remains the same in a static market
                          • Frozen novelties, non-dairy
                            • Eden’s Halo Top loses its shine?
                              • Ice cream that gets the job done
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties

                                • Unilever, Nestlé lead in relatively stable market
                                  • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Frozen Novelties flourish
                                  • Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by select brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 21: Blue Bunny TV Advertisement: “Hands Full Version”
                                • Cutting cows out of the equation
                                  • Figure 22: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by dairy-free and vegan claims, 2016-18
                                  • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by select brands with dairy-free frozen treats, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 24: So Delicious TV Advertisement: “Mouthful”
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Halo Top: Flavor of the month?
                                  • Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of Halo Top, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 26: Halo Top TV Advertisement: “Love”
                              • What’s Next?

                                • Ice cream that works in addition to play
                                  • Figure 27: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by functional claim, 2016-18
                                • Ice cream that’s feeling its oats
                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                  • Nearly universal penetration
                                    • Significant variation in purchase by demographic
                                      • Consumers driven by cravings, snacking
                                        • Younger adults buy on impulse
                                          • Flavors the key factor
                                            • Impulse buying a key factor
                                            • Frozen Treat Purchase

                                              • Everyone still screams for ice cream
                                                • Figure 28: Frozen treat purchase – Types, February 2019
                                              • Young adults, parents, buy broadest assortments
                                                • Figure 29: Frozen treat purchase – Types, by age and parental status, February 2019
                                              • Name brands, pint sizes prevail
                                                • Figure 30: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, February 2019
                                              • Smaller sizes, BFY options more popular with the young
                                                • Figure 31: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, by generation, February 2019
                                              • Needs change for parents and larger families
                                                • Figure 32: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, by parental status and household size, February 2019
                                            • Reasons for Frozen Treat Purchase

                                              • Snacking, current cravings drive purchase of novelties and pints
                                                • Figure 33: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2019
                                              • Sandwiches satisfy cravings for men, calorie counting for women
                                                • Figure 34: Reasons for purchase of ice cream sandwiches, by gender and age, February 2019
                                              • Women value portion control for pints
                                                • Figure 35: Reasons for purchase of ice cream pint, February 2019
                                              • Parents prefer novelties
                                                • Figure 36: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parents, February 2019
                                            • Frozen Treat Shopping Behaviors

                                              • Value matters more than price?
                                                • Figure 37: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
                                              • Older consumers more promotion driven
                                                • Figure 38: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
                                              • Low-income consumers actually less price sensitive
                                                • Figure 39: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, by household income, January 2019
                                            • Frozen Treat Decision-making Process

                                              • Flavors best place to experiment
                                                • Figure 40: Frozen treat decision-making process, January 2019
                                              • Older people most brand loyal
                                                • Figure 41: Frozen treat decision-making process, by age and parental status, January 2019
                                              • Environment, new formats compelling to experimenters
                                                • Figure 42: Frozen treat decision-making process – Same brands and different brands, by frozen treat making process, January 2019
                                            • Drivers for Frozen Treat Trial

                                              • How much innovation is too much?
                                                • Figure 43: Drivers for frozen treat trial, January 2019
                                              • Gen Z willing to experiment; seniors stick with tried and true
                                                • Figure 44: Drivers for frozen treat trial, by age, January 2019
                                              • New textures, small sizes could drive purchase interest
                                                • Methodology
                                                  • Figure 45: TURF analysis – Drivers for frozen treat trial, February 2019
                                                  • Figure 46: TURF analysis – Drivers for frozen treat trial, February 2019
                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                • Data sources
                                                  • Sales data
                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                          • Appendix – The Market

                                                              • Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                              • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                              • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                              • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                              • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                              • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                          • Appendix – Key Players

                                                              • Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                              • Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                              • Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                              • Figure 56: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                          Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - May 2019

                                                          £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)