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Description

Description

“Amid a rapidly evolving consumer environment during the COVID-19 outbreak, the market must respond to consumer health concerns while preserving the inherently indulgent nature of the ice cream category. While there is a sizeable interest in healthier options, key indulgence drivers such as texture must not be neglected when it comes to ice cream NPD.”
- Kate Vlietstra, Global Food & Drink Analyst, 4th May 2020

This report will look at the following areas:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and market dynamics in the ice cream market.
  • The need to respond to sugar concerns and the opportunities this provides.
  • The potential for other better-for-you ice cream and NPD trends.
  • Consumer usage of and attitudes towards ice cream.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
        • Executive Summary

            • Impact of COVID-19 on the Ice Cream Market
              • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                • Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the ice cream retail market, short, medium and long-term, 4 May 2020
              • The market
                • 2019 saw sales decline across the ice cream category
                  • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
                    • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
                      • Brexit is likely to affect ice cream pricing
                        • Companies and brands
                          • Tubs segment sales led by Ben & Jerry’s
                            • Figure 3: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, 2019/20*
                          • Magnum leads handheld market albeit with a shrinking value share
                            • Figure 4: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK retail handheld singles and multipack ice cream market, 2019/20*
                          • Indulgence plays a key role in ice cream NPD launches
                            • Lower calorie and sugar claims resound across ice cream launches
                              • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
                                • Magnum’s strong image underpinned by trust, Ben & Jerry’s resonates with younger consumers
                                  • Figure 5: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2020
                                • The consumer
                                  • Ice cream has universal appeal
                                    • Figure 6: Frequency of eating ice cream, October 2019
                                  • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for consumption
                                    • Figure 7: Types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
                                  • Lower sugar and lower calorie ice creams are key to frequent ice cream consumption
                                    • Figure 8: Factors that would encourage more consumption of ice cream, October 2019
                                  • Gut health strikes a chord with non-dairy ice cream users
                                    • Figure 9: Interest in ice cream concepts, October 2019
                                  • Younger consumers are keen to try ice cream from other countries
                                    • Figure 10: Behaviours relating to ice cream, October 2019
                                  • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
                                    • Figure 11: Attitudes relating to ice cream, October 2019
                                  • What we think
                                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on the Ice Cream Market

                                    • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
                                      • Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the ice cream retail market,, short, medium and long-term, 4 May 2020
                                    • Opportunities and Threats
                                      • Emotional connection will benefit some brands
                                        • The lockdown and evenings in create opportunities for at-home ice cream consumption
                                          • Brands can win favour by responding to health concerns
                                            • Hygiene concerns highlight an opportunity
                                              • Figure 13: Hygiene habits since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28th February 2020-9th April 2020
                                            • Impact on the Ice Cream Market
                                              • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
                                                • Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                              • Online surge expected to endure
                                                • Less frequent shopping and limited time in-store will hit impulse buys
                                                  • Figure 15: Shopping behaviour changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 16th April - 23rd April 2020
                                                • Strong balance sheets will help large multinationals weather the disruption
                                                  • Shifts in consumer behaviour
                                                    • Better-for-you trend will continue
                                                      • Figure 16: Changes to priorities since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, eating healthily and local community, 16th April-23rd April 2020
                                                    • Support for local producers holds potential
                                                      • Impact on ice cream key consumer segments
                                                        • Shrinking birth rates present a challenge for the ice cream category
                                                          • Figure 17: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-18
                                                        • The time has come to focus on older adults
                                                          • Figure 18: UK population, by age, 2019 and 2024
                                                        • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the ice cream market
                                                          • Consumers seek indulgence during turbulent times
                                                            • Premium and luxury ice creams benefited in the 2008/09 recession
                                                              • Own-label could see a comeback
                                                                • Figure 19: Ice cream launches in the UK, by private label and branded, 2008-19
                                                              • Impact on the marketing mix
                                                                • 2008/09 recession saw advertising maintain momentum
                                                                  • Bringing playtime to the home
                                                                    • Smaller, agile brands are connecting with consumers in new ways
                                                                      • COVID-19: Market context
                                                                      • Issues and Insights

                                                                        • Lower calorie ice creams can expand into handheld formats
                                                                          • The facts
                                                                            • The implications
                                                                              • Gut health ice cream would resonate with parents
                                                                                • The facts
                                                                                  • The implications
                                                                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                                    • 2019 saw sales decline across the ice cream category
                                                                                      • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
                                                                                        • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
                                                                                          • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
                                                                                            • Brexit is likely to affect ice cream pricing
                                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                              • 2019 saw a sales decline across the ice cream category
                                                                                                • Figure 20: Total UK value and volume sales of ice cream, 2014-19
                                                                                              • Outlook in light of COVID-19
                                                                                                • COVID-19 has created huge disruption to the ice cream industry
                                                                                                  • Loss of out of home occasions will hit sales in 2020
                                                                                                    • Modest volume growth predicted from 2022
                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: UK value and volume retail sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                                                                    • Pre-COVID-19 forecast highlights the impact that the crisis will have on sales
                                                                                                      • Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Forecast of UK value sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Forecast of UK volume sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                    • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                      • Cooler summer sees handheld ice cream sales struggle
                                                                                                        • Tubs and blocks also struggle amid cooler weather
                                                                                                          • Figure 27: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, by segment, 2017-19
                                                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                                                        • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
                                                                                                          • Ice cream is making slow progress with sugar reduction
                                                                                                            • A sugar tax on the horizon?
                                                                                                              • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Total hours of sunshine in the UK, by season, 2014-19
                                                                                                              • Brexit is likely to affect both ice cream pricing and consumption
                                                                                                                • Sustainability is important to consumers, but less so in the ice cream category
                                                                                                                  • Population of older consumers set to grow
                                                                                                                  • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                    • Tubs segment sales led by Ben & Jerry’s
                                                                                                                      • Magnum leads handheld market albeit with a shrinking value share
                                                                                                                        • Indulgence plays a key role in ice cream NPD launches
                                                                                                                          • Lower calorie and sugar claims resound across ice cream launches
                                                                                                                            • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
                                                                                                                              • Magnum’s strong image underpinned by trust, Ben & Jerry’s resonates with younger consumers
                                                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                                                • Unilever struggles despite strong Ben & Jerry’s sales
                                                                                                                                  • Ben & Jerry’s drives growth through dairy-free
                                                                                                                                    • Häagen-Dazs delivers small value growth
                                                                                                                                      • Halo Top’s winning streak dwindles
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
                                                                                                                                      • Magnum increases volume share
                                                                                                                                        • Cooler 2019 summer hits handheld ice cream sales
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail handheld singles and multipack ice cream market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
                                                                                                                                      • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                        • Dairy-based ice cream gains share of launches
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by type, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Ice cream launches in the UK, by format, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                        • Healthy ice cream launches span different focus areas
                                                                                                                                          • Healthier ice creams for kids containing hidden fruit and vegetables
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Examples of new fruit and vegetable ice lolly launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                          • Launches continue to put the spotlight on calories and sugar
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Ice cream launches in the UK, by selected claim, 2019
                                                                                                                                          • Halo Top’s launch is followed by own-label competitors
                                                                                                                                            • Unilever explores no added sugar and expands better-for-you ranges
                                                                                                                                              • Plant-based ice cream also expands into lower calorie and sugar options
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Examples of new plant-based ice cream launches in the UK featuring prominent calorie messaging claims, 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Lower calorie brands move into handheld ice cream
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Examples of lower calorie, handheld ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Gelato offers a lower calorie proposition
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Examples of new gelato launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Indulgence is still key in NPD
                                                                                                                                                • Premium ingredients remain a key innovation area
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK containing innovative ingredients, 2019
                                                                                                                                                • Exciting textures have broad appeal
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumers raise a glass to alcoholic ice cream
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK containing alcohol, 2019
                                                                                                                                                  • Non-dairy ice cream launches get more indulgent
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Examples of new plant-based ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                                  • “Extend my brand” trend fuels ice cream launches in 2019
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK extending existing brands from other categories, 2019
                                                                                                                                                  • Launches with environmentally-friendly packaging are on the rise
                                                                                                                                                    • Environmentally-friendly packaging claims climb
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Launches of ice cream featuring environmentally friendly package claims, 2016-19
                                                                                                                                                    • Packaging challenges remain
                                                                                                                                                      • Corporate social responsibility incorporates technology
                                                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                        • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream, by top five advertisers, 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Magnum tells consumers to #neverstopplaying
                                                                                                                                                          • Premium is the name of the game for Häagen-Dazs and Nuii
                                                                                                                                                            • Plant-based and better-for-you brands drive product visibility
                                                                                                                                                              • Various brands explore experiential
                                                                                                                                                                • Retailers support own-brand ice cream
                                                                                                                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Map
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand attitudes: Magnum is seen widely as trustworthy and high quality
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Attitudes, by brand, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand personality: Ben & Jerry’s is perceived to be fun by two thirds of consumers
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Brand personality – macro image, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Häagen-Dazs is seen by many to be special and indulgent
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Brand personality – micro image, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Magnum has a broad appeal and is widely perceived to be indulgent
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: User profile of Magnum, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                        • Ben & Jerry’s innovative approach resonates with younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: User profile of Ben & Jerry’s, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                        • Kelly’s is trusted among older consumers and is seen most widely as traditional
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: User profile of Kelly’s, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                        • Hӓagen-Dazs is seen by many to be indulgent
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: User profile of Hӓagen-Dazs, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                        • Breyers Delights enjoys a more loyal following than most among its modest user base
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: User profile of Breyers Delights, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                        • Halo Top appeals to men and women alike with its better-for-you positioning
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: User profile of Halo Top, January 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                        • Ice cream has universal appeal
                                                                                                                                                                          • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for consumption
                                                                                                                                                                            • Lower sugar and lower calorie ice creams are key to frequent ice cream consumption
                                                                                                                                                                              • Gut health strikes a chord with non-dairy ice cream users
                                                                                                                                                                                • Younger consumers are keen to try ice cream from other countries
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Frequency of Eating Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ice cream has universal appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Parents and 25-44s are core users
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Frequency of eating ice cream, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Younger groups eat a wider range of ice creams
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Repertoire of types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Types of Ice Cream Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for usage
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Gelato does well in London but could expand
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Dairy-free appeals most to younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Factors to Encourage Ice Cream Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Healthiness is rarely a key factor for ice cream buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lower sugar/calorie ice creams prove interesting
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brands and private label tap in to the lower calorie ice cream trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Factors that would encourage more consumption of ice cream, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                              • All-natural ingredients appeal to one in three
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Interest in Ice Cream Concepts

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Gut health strikes a chord
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Interest in ice cream concepts, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                • High interest in gut health among non-dairy ice cream users and parents
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Ice cream launches with digestive health claims, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Millennials show interest in unusual cones
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Unusual ice cream cones in foodservice, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mess-free ice cream appeals for eating on the go
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Marletto Vanilla Flavoured Ice Cream to Squeeze, Poland 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Behaviours relating to Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Younger users are keen to try ice cream from other countries
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Behaviours relating to ice cream, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Internationally inspired ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Texture is important
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • International variants offer inspiration for new textures
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Dairy-free ice cream must improve texture perceptions
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes relating to Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Attitudes relating to ice cream, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Clearly stated calorie content is important to the majority of consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Clear calorie details have a place on healthy as well as less healthy variants
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Ice Cream – CHAID – Tree output, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Ice Cream – CHAID – Table output, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Ice Cream – CHAID – Table output, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: UK retail value sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail handheld ice cream market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by ingredient, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by texture, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Average energy, sugars and saturated fat in ice cream launches in the UK, 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                              About the report

                                                                                                                                                                                                              This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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