Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Spending - Q1 - China - May 2020
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“COVID-19 has disrupted China’s economic growth but the fundamentals of the economy remain solid. After all, China has a consumer market of 1.4 billion people and is among the first few markets to emerge from the outbreak after decisive lockdown measures to contain the outbreak. Nevertheless consumer confidence has been shaken and there is growing uncertainty about the global economic climate after COVID-19. How quickly China’s economy can return to growth depends much on domestic consumer spending, which already accounts for 60% of its GDP growth by 2019. Therefore employment and CPI are the key macro indicators to monitor in the upcoming months.
Although key economic indicators and consumer confidence have shown signs of recovery since March, this quick recovery is largely driven by business activities resuming from a near standstill in February when the outbreak was at its peak. What’s more important in the long term is the recovery driven by the restoration of spending confidence. Our latest research in April suggests this will be slow and cautious. A few sectors, especially the essentials like in-home food, have benefited from COVID-19 as consumers have ‘brought the outside in’ during the outbreak, but many other sectors will be less fortunate and face different paths to recovery. While COVID-19 brings disruption, it is also a catalyst for change and will push businesses to innovate, improvise and adapt their business models in time of outbreak.”
– Jinyu Wang, Research Analyst, 30 April 2020
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