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Description

Description

"Sales at in-store bakeries continue to rise. Even as consumers indicate they are seeking healthier foods, they are clearly open to the occasional indulgence, and in-store bakeries are poised to capitalize on consumer interest in higher-quality baked goods that the consumers may feel uncomfortable, unwilling, or unskilled enough to make themselves."
- Billy Roberts, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This Report discusses the following key topics:

  • In-store bakery sales growth expected to continue
  • Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
  • Need to evolve appeal beyond larger households

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • In-store bakery sales growth expected to continue
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
            • Figure 2: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
          • Need to evolve appeal beyond larger households
            • The opportunities
              • In-store bakeries as an economical indulgence
                • Figure 3: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
              • Flavor affording opportunity
                • Figure 4: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
              • Leveraging freshness and variety
                • Figure 5: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Continuing sales increases expected for the category
                  • Strong growth in dessert sales for in-store bakeries
                    • Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
                      • Declining number of households with children
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • In-store bakeries projected to see continued sales increases
                          • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Breakfast emerging as in-store bakery occasion
                          • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Desserts register strong sales growth over last two years
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices in thousands, 2015 and 2017, % change from 2015 in parentheses
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Prepared cakes/pies see rising sales but fall short in terms of fresh
                          • Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015
                        • Competition from stand-alone bakeries
                          • Figure 11: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                      • Market Factors

                        • Consumer spending on food trending higher
                          • Figure 12: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2003-January 2017
                        • Households with children more likely to turn to ISB offerings
                          • Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                        • Hispanic consumers over index in the use of in-store bakeries
                          • Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Price matters but not as strongly as some other attributes
                          • Health attributes may deter consumers from more-indulgent options
                            • Free-from could communicate natural
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Price matters
                                • Figure 15: Notable in-store bakery dessert launches, 2017
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Health, a possible deterrent in certain segments
                                • Figure 16: True Goodness by Meijer Organic Whole Grain Hot Dog Buns, 2017
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Free-from claims could resonate
                                • Flavor affording opportunity
                                  • Figure 17: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
                                  • Figure 18: Walmart Marketside Pepperoni Cheese Bread, 2017
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • Younger generations turning to in-store bakeries
                                  • Strong interest in freshness
                                    • Naturally good
                                      • Variety resonating with younger consumers
                                        • Occasional opportunities
                                          • Consumers seeking organic options
                                            • Diverse options for an increasingly diverse population
                                              • In-store bakery usage chiefly in supermarkets
                                                • ISB-loyal consumers and price
                                                  • Consumers say they value freshness even over price
                                                  • Purchase Frequency

                                                    • Consumption of baked goods
                                                      • Figure 19: Purchase frequency, April 2017
                                                    • Opportunities in increasing frequency
                                                      • Figure 20: Purchase frequency, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Evolving beyond larger households
                                                      • Figure 21: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                      • Figure 22: Purchase frequency, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Distinct opportunities among younger Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 23: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Purchase Factors

                                                    • Fresh factors most strongly
                                                      • Figure 24: Purchase factors, April 2017
                                                    • Freshness and variety appeal to frequent shoppers
                                                      • Figure 25: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
                                                    • Factors to increase purchase
                                                      • Figure 26: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, April 2017
                                                  • Natural Factors

                                                    • Nutrients resonate with younger consumers
                                                      • Figure 27: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Younger, higher-income consumers factoring nutrients and lack of allergens
                                                      • Figure 28: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
                                                      • Figure 29: Purchase factors, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Older Hispanic consumers strongly likely to consider health
                                                      • Figure 30: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Flavor Factors

                                                    • Fresh resonates most strongly with youngest consumers
                                                      • Figure 31: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Variety appeals to younger households with higher income levels
                                                      • Figure 32: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
                                                    • Flavor’s strong appeal to Hispanic Millennials
                                                      • Figure 33: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Usage

                                                    • Potential in special occasions
                                                      • Figure 34: Usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanics more likely to use for special occasions
                                                      • Figure 35: Usage of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Increasing Purchase

                                                    • Health concerns offset by portioning
                                                      • Figure 36: Increasing purchase, April 2017
                                                    • Organic claims resonate strongly with younger generations
                                                      • Figure 37: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Organic options may resonate with consumers seeking healthy treats
                                                      • Figure 38: Increasing purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanic Millennial attitudes reflect Millennials’ overall
                                                      • Figure 39: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Flavor Improvements

                                                    • In-store bakeries can assist during time-stressed holiday seasons
                                                      • Figure 40: Increasing purchase, April 2017
                                                    • Time savings from in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 41: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Diverse options could reach a diverse audience
                                                      • Figure 42: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                    • Maximizing in-store bakery potential
                                                      • Figure 43: TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
                                                  • Purchase Location

                                                    • Supermarket ISBs resonating more so than other retailers’
                                                      • Figure 44: Purchase location, April 2017
                                                    • Unexplored potential for mass merchandisers’ and natural stores’ in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 45: Purchase location, April 2017
                                                    • In-store bakery may create a sense of consumer loyalty
                                                      • Figure 46: Purchase location, by repertoire of usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                  • Brands and Baked

                                                    • Quality factors strongly among bakery items
                                                      • Figure 47: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                    • Baked goods as reassurance
                                                      • Figure 48: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanic Millennial moms appear to be gatekeepers
                                                      • Figure 49: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                    • Frequent ISB consumers appear less impacted by price
                                                      • Figure 50: Purchase frequency, by opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                  • Quality of Baked Goods

                                                    • Fresh appears more impactful even than price
                                                      • Figure 51: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by gender and age, April 2017
                                                    • Fresh appreciation among Hispanic non-Millennials, in particular
                                                      • Figure 52: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Impact of In-store Competition

                                                    • Bakery expertise could be a draw
                                                      • Figure 53: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Leveraging expertise via social media and apps
                                                      • Figure 54: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                • Figure 66: Bread types eaten, by gender, 2016
                                                                • Figure 67: Bread types eaten, by age, 2016
                                                                • Figure 68: Bread types eaten, by race, 2016
                                                                • Figure 69: Bread types eaten, by Hispanic origin, 2016
                                                                • Figure 70: Bread types eaten, by household income, 2016
                                                                • Figure 71: Bread types eaten, by education level, 2016
                                                                • Figure 72: Bread types eaten, by presence of children in the household, 2016
                                                                • Figure 73: Bread types eaten, by region, 2016
                                                            • TURF Analysis Methodology

                                                              • Methodology
                                                                • Figure 74: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, March 2017
                                                                • Figure 75: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017

                                                            About the report

                                                            This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                            • The Consumer

                                                              What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                            • The Competitors

                                                              Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                            • The Market

                                                              Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                            • The Innovations

                                                              New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                            • The Opportunities

                                                              Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                            • The Trends

                                                              What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                            Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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