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Lotteries - UK - January 2018

“Sliding sales of National Lottery draw games and scratchcards have damaged the market as a whole but could usher in a new period of innovation as Camelot scrambles to recover and its rivals look to cash in.”

– David Walmsley, Senior Leisure Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Have we reached peak scratchcard?
  • Will new transparency promote giving over winning?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Sales slide as National Lottery loses lustre
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
            • Scratchcards’ success story takes a knock
              • Figure 2: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2012/13-2016/17
            • Society lotteries set pace in growth
              • Figure 3: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2012/13-2016/17
            • The consumer
              • Most eyes on a single prize
                • Figure 4: Lottery games played, October 2017
              • Competition heats up in second tier
                • Figure 5: Lottery draw games played, October 2017
              • Giving back becomes a more attractive look
                • Figure 6: Future interest in playing lottery games, October 2017
              • Players happy to stick with retail habits
                • Figure 7: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, October 2017
              • Easy to play – but hard to win
                • Figure 8: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, October 2017
              • Jackpot drought sees high demand for shortened odds
                • Figure 9: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, October 2017
              • What we think
              • Issues and Insights

                • Have we reached peak scratchcard?
                  • The facts
                    • The implications
                      • Will new transparency promote giving over winning?
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • Sales fall as players desert new National Lottery formats
                              • Scratchcards’ success story takes a knock
                                • Regulatory focus turns to transparency
                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                  • Sales slide as National Lottery loses lustre
                                      • Figure 10: UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
                                    • Forecast
                                      • Figure 11: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
                                    • Forecast methodology
                                    • Market Segmentation

                                      • Instant-wins lose sales but gain share
                                          • Figure 12: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2012/13-2016/17
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Lottery most popular – but slots most valuable
                                            • Figure 13: Consumer expenditure* on gambling, April 2016-March 2017
                                          • Online opportunities more open to all
                                              • Figure 14: National Lottery draw game and scratchcard/IWG sales, by channel, April 2016-March 2017
                                            • Regulators looking for greater transparency
                                                • Figure 15: Regulations applying to society lotteries, January 2018
                                              • Next focus on fundraising?
                                                • Figure 16: Lotteries’ contributions to good causes, 2012/13-2016/17
                                            • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                              • Society lotteries set pace in growth
                                                • Camelot sets out recovery plans
                                                  • Adspend rise levels off
                                                  • Market Share

                                                    • Society sector chips away at National Lottery’s lead
                                                      • Figure 17: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2012/13-2016/17
                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                    • New strategy to return National Lottery to growth
                                                      • Licence contest looks like heating up
                                                        • Non-stop lottery draws attention to instant wins
                                                          • Lotteries’ charity begins at home
                                                            • Marketing gets personal
                                                            • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                              • Spending slows after major players’ promotional push
                                                                  • Figure 18: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, 2014-16
                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Only one game in town
                                                                  • Society lotteries compete in smaller prize segment
                                                                    • Giving back a more attractive look
                                                                      • Players happy to stick with retail habits
                                                                        • Playing is easy – but winning much less so
                                                                          • Player preferences are cost and value conscious
                                                                          • Lottery Games Played

                                                                            • Most eyes on a single prize
                                                                                • Figure 19: Lottery games played, October 2017
                                                                              • Scratchcards and IWGs must both defend and attack
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Participation in lottery scratchcard and online instant win games, by age, October 2017
                                                                              • Lottery Draw Games

                                                                                • Competition heats up in second tier
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Lottery draw games played, October 2017
                                                                              • Future Interest in Lottery Play

                                                                                • Taste for transparency to prioritise giving over winning?
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Future interest in playing lottery games, October 2017
                                                                                • Methods of Lottery Play

                                                                                  • Convenience factor keeps play personal
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, October 2017
                                                                                    • Supermarkets avoid the crowding-out effect
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets in person, October 2017
                                                                                      • Online players plan (and pay) ahead
                                                                                          • Figure 25: Online lottery draw ticket purchasing habits, October 2017
                                                                                      • Attitudes Towards Lottery Draw Games

                                                                                        • Easy to play – hard to win
                                                                                            • Figure 26: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, October 2017
                                                                                          • Regular purchasing adds up for all
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Agreement with the statement ‘the lottery draw game I play most regularly is cheap to play’, by lottery draw games played, October 2017
                                                                                          • Incentives to Lottery Game Play

                                                                                            • Jackpot drought drives demand for shortened odds
                                                                                                • Figure 28: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, October 2017
                                                                                              • Good cause focus to grow female player pool
                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, by gender, October 2017
                                                                                              • Appendix

                                                                                                • Data sources
                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                      • Best/worst case chart
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2017/18-2022/23

                                                                                                    Lotteries - UK - January 2018

                                                                                                    US $2,693.85 (Excl.Tax)