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Description

Description

The property market is increasingly polarised between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’. The proportion of mortgage holders has been steadily falling, as would-be first-time buyers find themselves shut out of the market, and older homeowners clear their mortgages.

  • There’s cautious optimism when it comes to house prices. Consumers are more positive about the market than at any point since 2007.
  • Despite the turmoil of recent years, there’s an overwhelming belief that property remains a good long-term investment. Even the most dramatic financial crisis in living memory can’t dent the UK consumer’s faith in bricks and mortar.
  • 2010 is likely to be another slow year for the mortgage industry. Just 11% of those with a mortgage are thinking of remortgaging. The constant quest for a new discounted deal that characterised the mortgage market in the run-up to the credit crunch is a thing of the past.
  • Reality has hit home for younger borrowers. A fifth of mortgage-holders aged under-35 don’t think that they’d be able to get a new mortgage in the current climate.
  • A third of people would only consider getting a mortgage after getting professional advice, but the internet is playing a growing role in the search process. Three in ten would search online for information, and a quarter would even be prepared to apply online if it meant they got a better deal.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key Issues
        • Market definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Mortgage ownership is declining, reflecting the fall in first-time buyers
              • Housing market is likely to remain subdued in 2010, but there could be a strong pick-up in remortgage activity
                • Uncertainty reigns
                  • Out with the old and in with the new
                  • Market in Brief

                    • A large target market
                      • Recent performance: New business down sharply
                        • Short-term outlook: Market faces a slow and steady recovery
                          • Trading environment and recent developments
                            • Market contraction has led to a loss of competition
                              • Leading lenders
                                • Intermediaries lose distribution share
                                  • Adspend continues to decline
                                    • TGI research: Mortgage ownership falls
                                      • Mintel’s consumer research: Key findings
                                        • The typical mortgage borrower
                                          • Recent payment experience and views on switching
                                            • Attitudes towards mortgage advice, online channels and product fees
                                              • Targeting opportunities
                                              • Internal Market Environment

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Boom years come to an end
                                                    • Credit crunch claims many casualties
                                                      • Government intervention to improve liquidity…
                                                        • …but fears heighten over future funding
                                                          • Bank of England halts quantitative easing programme
                                                            • Fall in LIBOR boosts lenders’ profit margins
                                                              • Figure 1: Bank of England base rate, three-month (monthly average) LIBOR and new mortgages effective rate, January 2004-December 2009
                                                            • Insight and implication
                                                              • Approvals for house purchase rose by a fifth in 2009
                                                                • Figure 2: Number of monthly mortgage approvals (seasonally adjusted), by type, December 2007-December 2009
                                                              • Affordability remains a major hurdle for FTBs
                                                                • Figure 3: Mortgage payment as a proportion of income and deposit as a proportion of price, by type of borrower, 1990-2009
                                                              • Repossessions hit 14-year high, but below initial expectations
                                                                • Homeowners Mortgage Support
                                                                • Broader Market Environment

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Economic backdrop: indicators suggest a mixed picture for the mortgage market
                                                                      • Question mark over maintaining the bank base rate at its current level
                                                                        • Improved consumer sentiment could raise demand for mortgages…
                                                                          • Figure 4: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer – UK, January 1988-January 2010
                                                                        • …but funding issues mean that demand could be stifled by a lack of supply
                                                                          • More moderate income and spending growth going forward
                                                                            • Figure 5: Total PDI, consumer expenditure and savings ratio, at current prices, 2004-13
                                                                          • Decline in expected borrowing activity
                                                                            • Figure 6: Savings, investment, borrowing and debt repayment – consumers’ expected activity, quarterly indices, June 2002-December 2009
                                                                          • Mortgage and house-buying intentions slip further…
                                                                            • Figure 7: Expected mortgage and property purchase activity, quarterly indices, Q3/Q4 2002-Q3/Q4 2009
                                                                          • …although housing transactions have picked up recently…
                                                                            • Figure 8: Number of UK residential property transactions with a value of £40,000 upwards – seasonally adjusted, Q4 2005-Q4 2009
                                                                          • …and, since mid-2009, property prices have also risen
                                                                            • Figure 9: Annual change in UK house prices – comparison of four sources, Q1 2004-Q4 2009
                                                                          • Debt-to-income ratio stabilises in 2009
                                                                            • Figure 10: The value of personal sector debt (mortgages and consumer credit) and as a proportion of total PDI, at current prices, 2000-09
                                                                          • Mortgage debt write-offs rise
                                                                            • Figure 11: Quarterly write-offs of lending to individuals, by sector, Q2 2004-Q4 2009
                                                                        • Regulation Round-up

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Current regulatory system needs updating
                                                                              • Mortgage Market Review
                                                                                • New measures to protect customers in arrears
                                                                                  • Buy-to-let and second-charge mortgages to come under FSA remit
                                                                                    • Self-cert under threat
                                                                                      • LTV and LTI caps still up for debate
                                                                                      • Trade Perspective

                                                                                          • About the respondents
                                                                                            • Post-crunch, big players with access to diverse funding sources will have the competitive edge
                                                                                              • Lenders starting to raise LTVs and are bundling products to grow customer relationships
                                                                                                • MMR reaction: Some measures are deemed unnecessary
                                                                                                  • ‘Approved persons’ regime: An extra cost burden
                                                                                                    • Distinction between fast-track and self-cert needs to be clarified
                                                                                                      • Still a fragile market, but the worst is behind us
                                                                                                        • Final thoughts
                                                                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Over two thirds of UK dwellings are owner-occupied
                                                                                                              • Figure 12: UK housing stock, by tenure, 1991-2009
                                                                                                            • UK mortgage market transformed in the decade leading up to the credit crisis
                                                                                                              • All change
                                                                                                                • Crisis impact
                                                                                                                  • Specialist lenders’ share of outstanding mortgages slips back to 25%
                                                                                                                    • Figure 13: Total mortgage balances outstanding (not seasonally adjusted), by type of lender, Q4 1993-Q4 2009
                                                                                                                  • Changing competitive environment
                                                                                                                    • Asset disposals set to bring fresh blood into the retail banking and lending markets
                                                                                                                    • SWOT Analysis

                                                                                                                        • Figure 14: The UK mortgage market – SWOT analysis, 2010
                                                                                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Product availability improves, but there’s little in the way of innovation
                                                                                                                          • Lenders slowly returning to the first-time buyer market
                                                                                                                            • Some competition starts to seep into the market
                                                                                                                              • New product development in the specialist sector focuses on affordability
                                                                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Gross new lending declined by 44% in 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 15: Total mortgage lending, by gross and net advances (not seasonally adjusted), 2001-09
                                                                                                                                  • Contributory factors
                                                                                                                                    • Redemptions have fallen over the past two years
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 16: Monthly mortgage repayments, by type (seasonally adjusted), January 2006-November 2009
                                                                                                                                    • An uncertain future for the mortgage market
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: Total mortgage lending, by gross and net advances, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                    • Factors incorporated
                                                                                                                                      • Summary of key future trends
                                                                                                                                      • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Most specialist lenders have fallen by the wayside
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 18: Gross mortgage lending, by type of lender (not seasonally adjusted), 2004-09
                                                                                                                                          • Lack of competition has led to a sharp reduction in remortgage activity
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Gross mortgage lending, by type of loan, 2004-09
                                                                                                                                          • First-time buyer loans edge up slightly in 2009
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Loans advanced for house purchase, by type of borrower, 2004-09
                                                                                                                                          • Mortgage PSD trends
                                                                                                                                          • Lender Rankings

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Key financials for the top six lenders in 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 21: Top six mortgage lenders, by gross advances, 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Crisis consolidates the market
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Lenders’ share of the mortgage market, by amounts outstanding, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                                                              • Lloyds’ acquisition of HBOS creates mortgage giant
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Lenders’ share of the mortgage market, by gross advances, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                                                              • More exits, more change
                                                                                                                                                • Outlook for 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Market exits pave the way for new entrants
                                                                                                                                                    • New brands, fresh approach
                                                                                                                                                      • Home and Savings Bank
                                                                                                                                                        • Metro Bank
                                                                                                                                                          • Post Office
                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Bank
                                                                                                                                                              • Virgin Money
                                                                                                                                                                • Walton & Co
                                                                                                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                                                                    • Barclays/Woolwich
                                                                                                                                                                      • Co-operative Financial Services/Britannia
                                                                                                                                                                        • HSBC
                                                                                                                                                                          • Lloyds Banking Group
                                                                                                                                                                            • Nationwide Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                              • Northern Rock
                                                                                                                                                                                • RBS/NatWest
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Grupo Santander
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mortgage adspend falls again
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Total advertising expenditure on mortage products and services, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Equity release attracted the greatest proportion of industry adspend in 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Advertising expenditure on mortgage products and services, by sub-product category, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Halifax was the leading advertiser of mortgages in 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Advertising expenditure on mortgage products and services (excluding equity release), by top 20 advertisers, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Press and TV accounts for most mortgage advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Proportional distribution of mortgage adspend (excluding equity release), by media type, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Elements

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand qualities of mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Stability most sought after
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Personalities of various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Experience of mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Halifax still leading, but losing share
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Consumer usage of various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand consideration for mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Northern Rock has lost its appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Consideration of various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand satisfaction for mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nationwide and Santander are the best performers
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Satisfaction with various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand commitment to mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Lloyds TSB has greatest loyalty
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Commitment to various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand intentions for mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • HSBC, Nationwide and Santander have best future usage potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Future usage intentions for various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand recommendation for mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Anything but a British bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Recommendation of various mortgage brands, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Halifax
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Attitudes towards the Halifax brand, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Co-operative Bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Attitudes towards The Co-operative Bank brand, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Santander
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Attitudes towards the Santander brand, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Northern Rock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Attitudes towards the Northern Rock brand, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nationwide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Attitudes towards the Nationwide brand, February 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Intermediary share declined in 2008/09…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Proportional distribution of regulated mortgage sales, by channel, 2006/07-2008/09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …forcing many to exit the market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Number of mortgage ARs and DA intermediary firms, by type, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Mortgage Ownership Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mortgage penetration has declined steadily over the past seven years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Trends in mortgage ownership, 2003-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Four in five mortgages are jointly held
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Mortgage held solely or jointly with another person, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Over 50% of mortgage borrowers have had their mortgage for more than five years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: How long ago mortgage was first taken out, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • First-time borrowers account for two fifths of the market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Proportion of first-time mortgage borrowers, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • More than half of all borrowers have a repayment-only mortgage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Type of mortgage held, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Medium-term fixed-rate mortgages are still the most popular type
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Type of interest rate on mortgage, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The proportion of borrowers remortgaging has declined year on year since 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Proportion of mortgage borrowers who have remortgaged in the past year, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Over two thirds have increased their mortgage debt at some point
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Proportion of mortgage borrowers who have ever increased their mortgage debt, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Property Ownership and Aspirations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • About Mintel’s consumer survey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Proportion of people saving up for first home has declined since 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Property and mortgage ownership, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Over half of those aged 35-54 have a mortgage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Property and mortgage ownership, by age, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Women are more likely to be outright owners than men
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Property and mortgage ownership, by gender and socio-economic group, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Personal wealth determines home ownership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Property and mortgage ownership, by household income, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Identifying the core target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Target groups identified for the UK mortgage market, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Expected House Price Movement

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Most UK adults do not anticipate further house price falls in 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Expected house price movement over the next year, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • FTB prospects are less confident than existing homeowners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Expected house price movement over the next year, by tenure groups, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Expectations are influenced by personal experience and aspirations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Expected house price movement over the next year, by age, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Recent Activity and Future Plans

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A third of mortgage borrowers are better off than a year ago
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Agreement with statements about owning property, recent activity and future plans, by tenure groups, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Housing and mortgage markets are set to remain subdued in 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The affluent reap the rewards, while the less-well off struggle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Agreement with statements about owning property, recent activity and future plans, by gender and socio-economic group, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Young borrowers are most fearful of being in negative equity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Agreement with statements about owning property, recent activity and future plans, by age, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Buying Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • A fifth of mortgage borrowers and FTB prospects are happy to arrange a mortgage without advice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Agreement with statements about arranging/choosing a mortgage, by tenure groups, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • High product fees deter a fifth of mortgage borrowers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Presence of a branch is not a concern for most mortgage borrowers and FTB prospects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco Bank could gain a respectable share of the mortgage market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • One in four people who are planning to get a new mortgage or remortgage are happy to eschew expert advice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Agreement with statements about arranging/choosing a mortgage, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes vary among the main demographic sub-groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Agreement with statements about arranging/choosing a mortgage, by gender and socio-economic group, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Agreement with statements about arranging/choosing a mortgage, by age, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Further analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix 1 – Property and Mortgage Ownership by Demographics

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Property and mortgage ownership, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix 2 – Profile of Mortgage Borrowers & FTB Prospects

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Profile of mortgage borrowers and FTB prospects versus the total sample, by demographics, December 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  About the report

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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