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New Energy Cars - China - April 2018

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
        • Definition
          • Figure 1: Definition of different monthly household income groups, by city tier, November 2016
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
          • Companies and brands
            • Figure 3: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2015-17
          • The consumer
            • ‘Transumers’ appear more often on buses
              • Figure 4: Daily commuting method, December 2017
            • A trading up trend
              • Figure 5: New energy car brand awareness, claim rate on ‘I recognise both the brand name and brand logo’, 2017 vs 2016
            • 30-34-year-olds are now the key audience group
              • Figure 6: Attitudes towards new energy cars, December 2017
            • Pure electric car buyers are becoming younger
              • Figure 7: New energy car purchasing plan, December 2017
            • 400km range is enough for most drivers
              • Figure 8: Spontaneous requirement on endurance, coded from open question, by hybrid and pure electric car buyer, December 2017
            • More divided target price compared to conventional car buyers
              • Figure 9: Planned purchasing price, by new energy car buyers and conventional car buyers, December 2017
            • What we think
            • Issues and Insights

              • Local new energy start-ups are facing a round of reshuffle
                • The facts
                  • The implications
                    • Drive up the spontaneous willingness of new energy car buyers
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                          • How to convince buyers with range anxiety?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • Figure 10: Weltmeister’s interactive window display
                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                              • Accounting for 2.2% of new passenger car sales
                                • A CAGR of 25.5% in the next five years to 2022
                                  • Further tightened subsidy policy
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Growth rate remains on the high level in 2017
                                      • Figure 11: Sales volume and growth rate of new energy passenger cars in China, 2011-17
                                    • Accounting for 2.2% of new passenger car sales
                                      • Figure 12: Share of sales volume of new energy passenger cars among new passenger car sales, 2011-17
                                    • New energy SUVs are gaining power
                                      • Figure 13: Share of different types of new passenger car models, 2016 and 2017
                                    • Estimated to grow with a CAGR of 25.5% in the next five years
                                      • Figure 14: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                  • Market Factors

                                    • Free of purchasing tax for three more years…
                                      • …yet with further tightened subsidy policy
                                        • Figure 15: The latest new energy passenger car subsidy policy of Central Government, 2017 vs 2018
                                        • Figure 16: Energy density coefficient, 2018
                                        • Figure 17: Energy efficiency coefficient, 2018
                                      • The extra requirement of local governments
                                        • Figure 18: Subsidy rule of Wuhan local government, 2018
                                      • New energy car battery recycling management regulation
                                        • Infrastructure construction
                                        • Market Segmentation

                                          • Pure electric cars continue to dominate the market
                                            • Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast of pure electric passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                          • Only 15% of new energy cars sold in 2022 will be hybrids
                                            • Figure 20: Best- and worst-case forecast of hybrid electric passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                          • The trading up trend also exists in the pure electric car sector
                                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                            • Struggling low-end players
                                              • Car sharing business as a strategy
                                                • Define ‘luxury’ using the new energy language
                                                • Market Share

                                                  • BAIC is challenging the dominating position of BYD, for now
                                                    • Figure 21: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2015-17
                                                  • A market with intense rivalry
                                                    • Figure 22: Top 10 selling new energy passenger car models, 2017
                                                • Competitive Strategies

                                                  • Determination revealed from the method of battery production
                                                    • Entering into the car sharing industry
                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                      • Battery exchange mode back in discussion
                                                        • Re-define ‘luxury’ in the new energy era
                                                          • Figure 23: The interior design of Porsche Mission E Cross Turismo
                                                          • Figure 24: Additional storage space in centre console of I PACE
                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                        • 30-34-year-olds are now the key audience group of new energy cars
                                                          • 25-29-year-olds have concerns on safety
                                                            • A 400km threshold line for endurance range
                                                            • Daily Commuting Method

                                                              • Bus is the top commuting method
                                                                • Figure 25: Daily commuting method, December 2017
                                                              • Significantly more first-time car buyers appear on buses
                                                                • Figure 26: Gap between intended car buyers and car owners (as benchmark) on commuting method used, December 2017
                                                              • Commuting preferences differ by region
                                                                • Figure 27: The usage rate of selected daily commuting method, by region, December 2017
                                                            • New Energy Car Brand Awareness

                                                              • BYD remains the top in terms of brand awareness
                                                                • Figure 28: New energy car brand awareness, claim rate on ‘I recognise both the brand name and brand logo’, 2017 vs 2016
                                                              • Changing core audiences of certain new energy car brands
                                                                • Figure 29: Age group with the highest brand awareness, 2016 vs 2017
                                                            • Attitudes towards New Energy Cars

                                                              • Generally positive attitudes towards new energy cars
                                                                • Figure 30: Attitudes towards new energy cars, December 2017
                                                              • 25-29-year-olds have deeper concerns
                                                                • Figure 31: Claim rates on strongly agree, by gender and age, December 2017
                                                              • The four groups of new energy car buyers
                                                                • Figure 32: Segmentations of new energy car buyers, December 2017
                                                                • Figure 33: Attitudes towards new energy car, % of strongly agree, by consumer segmentation, December 2017
                                                            • Purchase Willingness

                                                              • The drop in subsidy affects purchasing willingness
                                                                • Figure 34: New energy car purchasing plan, December 2017
                                                              • Core buyers of hybrid cars remain stable
                                                                • Younger pure electric car buyers
                                                                  • Pure electric models are considered more by sophisticated car buyers
                                                                    • Next EV (NIO) and BAIC have potential in the pure electric era
                                                                      • Figure 35: Gap between pure electric car buyers and hybrid car buyers (as benchmark) on brand awareness, December 2017
                                                                  • Endurance Requirement

                                                                    • An endurance of 400km can meet the requirements of most buyers
                                                                      • Figure 36: Spontaneous requirement on endurance, coded from open question, by hybrid and pure electric car buyer, December 2017
                                                                    • 35-39-year-olds have the highest expectations
                                                                      • Figure 37: Average requirement on endurance, by age, December 2017
                                                                  • New Energy Car Purchase Price

                                                                    • Separated budget allocation compared to conventional car buyers
                                                                      • Figure 38: Planned purchasing price, by new energy car buyers and conventional car buyers, December 2017
                                                                    • Supporters and Followers are the key buyers
                                                                      • Figure 39: Planned purchasing price, by consumer cluster, December 2017
                                                                  • Meet the Mintropolitans

                                                                    • MinTs are more satisfied with the current development
                                                                      • Figure 40: Gap between MinTs and Non-MinTs on attitudes towards new energy cars, claim rates on ‘strongly agree’, December 2017
                                                                    • More Supporters and Followers among MinTs
                                                                      • Figure 41: Consumer segmentation, by MinTs and Non-MinTs, December 2017
                                                                    • MinTs consider pure electric cars more
                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                        • Figure 42: Total market volume of new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                    • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                        • Figure 43: Total market volume of pure electric new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                        • Figure 44: Total market volume of plug-in electric new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                    • Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Abbreviations

                                                                          New Energy Cars - China - April 2018

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