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Description

Description

Sales of alcohol on-premise are rising year-over-year thanks to consumers’ interest in premium alcoholic beverages. While the market is growing, competition among bars/restaurants has never been stronger. Foodservice establishments must contend with consumers’ preference for drinking at home and must prepare for the next generation of on-premise consumers. Establishments that focus on providing a unique drinking experience will stand out in the crowded market.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • On-premise alcohol consumption falls
  • Consumers prefer drinking at home
  • Younger consumers enjoy the personal, controlled experience of drinking at home

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • On-premise alcohol consumption falls
            • Figure 1: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
          • Consumers prefer drinking at home
            • Figure 2: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
          • Younger consumers enjoy the personal, controlled experience of drinking at home
            • Figure 3: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Exploration is driving increased consumption among some consumers
              • Figure 4: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
            • Consumers choose new drinks based on alcohol type and flavor
              • Figure 5: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
            • Young consumers are interested in new drinks and exciting flavors
              • Figure 6: AFH drink interest, by generation, January 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • iGens: pragmatic, activists, and in control
                • Premium drinks offset falling volume
                  • Consumers are price sensitive despite strong economy
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Projected YOY on-premise sales growth
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Consumers are drinking less on-premise
                      • Figure 9: Total on-premise alcohol consumption, liters per capita, 2010-20
                    • Beer sales grow but segments struggle with different issues
                      • Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
                    • Producers rise a glass to wine’s strong growth
                      • Figure 11: Total US on and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Vodka maintains its top status, but whiskey is growing fast
                      • Figure 12: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
                      • Figure 13: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
                    • White spirits
                      • Figure 14: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2012-22
                    • Dark spirits
                      • Figure 15: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment 2012-22
                      • Figure 16: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2012-17
                    • RTD market benefits from innovation
                      • Figure 17: US volume sales of flavored malt beverages, spirit-based prepared cocktails, and wine coolers, 2012-22
                  • Market Factors

                    • Many Americans are financially unstable despite strong economy
                      • Figure 18: Financial stability and flexibility, by status level, November 2017
                    • Will self-driving cars be the biggest boon to the on-premise market?
                      • Alcohol avoiding/substitution topics are trending on social media
                        • Figure 19: Social media mentions of “Whole 30,” 2013-17
                        • Figure 20: Social media mentions of “Dry January,” 2013-18
                        • Figure 21: Social media mentions of “mocktails,” 2013-17
                    • Market Factor Deep Dive: iGens

                      • The kids are alright: meet the sober generation
                          • Figure 22: Distribution of population aged 21+, 2018-23
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • It’s all about the experience
                          • Beer market slows down and cider takes a dip
                            • Take on-premise off-premise via delivery
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Pop culture pubs
                                • Alco-tourism appeals to the experiential drinker
                                  • Growth in ride-sharing sharing services benefits bars/restaurants
                                    • Figure 23: Mobility services used, April 2016-November 2017
                                  • Blurred beverages expose consumers to new categories
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Major casual dining chains face declining sales
                                      • Figure 24: Changes in casual dining chain visitation, by select demos, November 2017
                                      • Figure 25: Applebee’s email, “The DOLLARMAMA is still just…well, a dollar,” February 16, 2018
                                      • Figure 26: Applebee’s email, “ABSOLUT Vodka + Lemonade = $2,” March 3, 2018
                                    • Mass market beer is in trouble…and craft beer hits a rough patch
                                      • Figure 27: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20
                                    • Cider can’t sustain its growth
                                      • Figure 28: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16 (est)
                                    • “Fewer but better trend” is detrimental for value spirit brands
                                      • Figure 29: Percent change in 9-liter cases sold, 2012-17
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Bringing the bar to you
                                        • Figure 30: TGI Friday’s alcohol delivery
                                      • Unfiltered and funky, natural wine enters the spotlight
                                        • Something’s in the water
                                          • Figure 31: Cocktails with waters as an ingredient
                                        • Zero waste hits mainstream
                                          • Drink locally, think globally
                                            • Figure 32: Internationally influenced cocktail examples
                                        • Mintel Menu Insights Analysis

                                          • Wine
                                            • Figure 33: Change in incidence of wine types, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                          • Sparkling wine
                                            • Figure 34: Change in incidence of sparkling wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                          • Red wine
                                            • Figure 35: Change in incidence of top 15 red wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                          • White wine
                                            • Figure 36: Change in incidence of top 15 white wines, Q4 2015 – Q4 2017
                                          • Dessert/fortified wine
                                            • Figure 37: Change in incidence of top 10 dessert/fortified wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                          • Beer
                                            • Figure 38: Average number of beers menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                            • Figure 39: Average price of beer menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                            • Figure 40: Growth of non-fruit beer flavors, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                          • Cocktails
                                            • Cocktail alcohol types
                                              • Figure 41: Change in incidence of alcohol types used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                            • Cocktail spirit trends
                                              • Figure 42: Change in incidence of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                              • Figure 43: Distribution of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                              • Figure 44: Change in incidence of spirit brands used in cocktails, top 25 brands Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                            • Cocktail ingredient claims
                                              • Cocktail ingredient trends: non-alcoholic beverages
                                                • Figure 45: Change in incidence of non-alcoholic beverages used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                              • Cocktail ingredient trends: herbs/seasonings
                                                • Figure 46: Change in incidence of herbs and seasonings used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
                                                • Figure 47: Unique salts used in cocktails
                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                              • Reported alcohol consumption across venues is down
                                                • New drinks can spur consumption
                                                  • Consumers of all ages prefer drinking AH
                                                    • Drinking AH is relaxing, cheap, and more personal than drinking AFH
                                                    • Alcoholic Beverage Consumption and Occasions: AH vs AFH

                                                      • Most drinks are consumed AH
                                                        • Figure 48: Alcoholic beverage consumption, AH vs AFH, January 2018
                                                      • Alcoholic beverage consumption by demographics
                                                        • Most occasions also occur within the home
                                                          • Figure 49: Drinking occasions, AH vs AFH, January 2018
                                                      • AFH Drink Interest

                                                          • Figure 50: AFH drink interest, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 51: AFH drink interest, by Millennial groups, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 52: Two Hats Online Ad, “’Meh’ No More”
                                                        • TURF analysis: AFH drink interest
                                                          • Figure 53: TURF analysis AFH drink interest, January 2018
                                                        • Unique drinks attract multicultural consumers
                                                          • Figure 54: AFH drink interest, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
                                                        • Targeting drink-type consumers
                                                          • Figure 55: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks, by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
                                                          • Figure 56: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
                                                      • Changes in AFH Drinking

                                                        • Slight net decrease in AFH drinking
                                                          • Figure 57: Changes in AFH drinking, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 58: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
                                                        • FMB drinkers report greatest increase in consumption
                                                          • Figure 59: Changes in AFH drinking, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
                                                      • Reasons for Drinking AFH More

                                                        • Variety drives increased consumption
                                                          • Figure 60: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
                                                      • Reasons for Drinking AFH Less

                                                        • Consumers are reducing their alcohol consumption or drinking AH
                                                          • Figure 61: Reasons for drinking AFH less often, January 2018
                                                      • Changes in Venue Visitation

                                                        • Traditional bars see greatest visitation drop
                                                          • Figure 62: Changes in venue visitation, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 63: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, January 2018
                                                        • Venue switching deep dive: nightclubs and casual dining chains
                                                          • Figure 64: Nightclub consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 65: Casual dining chain consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
                                                        • Visitation changes dependent on income
                                                          • Figure 66: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, by age and HH income, January 2018
                                                      • New Drink Trial Motivators

                                                        • Consumers most open to drink types they already enjoy
                                                          • Figure 67: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 68: AFH new drink trial motivators, by area, any rank, January 2018
                                                        • Men are brand-conscious purchasers
                                                          • Figure 69: AFH new drink trial motivators, by gender and age, any rank, January 2018
                                                        • Drink-type consumers respond to different motivators
                                                          • Figure 70: AFH new drink trial motivators, by beer-type drinkers, any rank, January 2018
                                                        • Drink specials motivate those drinking AFH less
                                                          • Figure 71: AFH new drink trial motivators, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, any rank, January 2018
                                                      • AFH Drinking Attitudes

                                                        • Majority of consumers prefer drinking at home
                                                          • Figure 72: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 73: AFH drinking attitudes, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
                                                        • Delivery appeals to the “hometainment” generation
                                                          • Figure 74: AFH drinking attitudes, by age, January 2018
                                                          • Figure 75: AFH drinking attitudes, by age and gender, January 2018
                                                        • Multicultural consumers often try before they buy
                                                          • Figure 76: AFH drinking attitudes, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
                                                        • Opportunity for FMB brands on-premise
                                                          • Figure 77: AFH drinking attitudes, I try new drinks at bars before buying from stores, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
                                                      • Reasons for Drinking AH

                                                        • Home comforts and cheap drinks drive AH alcohol consumption
                                                          • Figure 78: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by those who prefer drinking AH, January 2018
                                                        • Young consumers want control, can’t be bothered to go out
                                                            • Figure 79: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
                                                          • Bars/restaurants losing price-conscious consumers
                                                            • Figure 80: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                          • Data sources
                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                    • Consumption data: Mintel Market Sizes
                                                                      • Purchase Intelligence
                                                                        • Mintel Menu Insights
                                                                          • ePerformance
                                                                            • Social media methodology
                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                  • Terms
                                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                      • Figure 81: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                    • TURF methodology

                                                                                    About the report

                                                                                    This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                    • The Consumer

                                                                                      What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                    • The Competitors

                                                                                      Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                    • The Market

                                                                                      Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                    • The Innovations

                                                                                      New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                    • The Opportunities

                                                                                      Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                    • The Trends

                                                                                      What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                    Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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