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Description

Description

"Participation is rather steadfast which is proving to be a help and a hindrance to performance in the $21 billion packaged bread category. Sales have remained modestly positive despite the lingering popularity of low carb diets, yet the bulk of consumers are stuck in a holding pattern – neither increasing nor decreasing consumption. The challenge to the category will be to stem attrition while getting current participants to engage more frequently and diversely in the category."
- Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Slow growth expected to continue
  • Consumption continues to slowly wane 
  • Consumers not actively looking to expand consumption
  • Make underutilized segments everyday options
  • Encourage trial, promote freshness
  • Highlight nutrition and excitement
  • Expand bread uses and occasions

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Slow growth expected to continue
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Consumption continues to slowly wane
            • Figure 2: Reasons for decreased consumption – I’m trying to cut down on carbs, April 2018
          • Consumers not actively looking to expand consumption
            • Figure 3: Bread type consumption drivers – none of the above, April 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Make underutilized segments everyday options
              • Figure 4: Bread consumption, April 2018
            • Encourage trial, promote freshness
              • Figure 5: Bread attitudes, April 2018
            • Highlight nutrition and excitement
              • Figure 6: Bread type associations, April 2018
            • Expand bread uses and occasions
              • Figure 7: Bread uses, April 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Minimal growth in bread category
                • Stagnant sales from leading segment fresh loaf bread
                  • Increasing bread prices
                    • Obesity on the rise
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Sales slump continues
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Fresh loaf bread dominates the category, but sales remain flat
                        • Figure 11: Total US market size of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2018 (est)
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Majority of bread sales from traditional supermarkets
                        • Figure 13: Total US market size of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Bread prices climb amid shrinking wheat plantings and consumption
                        • Figure 14: Total US wheat plantings 2014-17 and flour consumption 2014-16
                        • Figure 15: Consumer price index – Average price of bread per pound, 2015 & 2018
                    • Market Factors

                      • Obesity in America continues to climb
                        • Figure 16: Growth in obesity in the US, 2013-15
                      • Declining household size expected to rebound
                        • Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Top two companies struggle to make gains
                        • Artisan, premium breads
                          • Free-from conveys BFY
                            • Stale appeal of private label loaf bread
                              • Gluten-free options struggle with taste and affordability
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Packaged Bread

                                • Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods maintain dominance in bread category
                                  • Figure 18: Dave’s Killer Bread online video: “What We’re All About”
                                • Specialty brands collectively dominate the category
                                  • Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Artisan and premium
                                  • Figure 20: Launches of bread, by premium, artisan, and crafted, 2015-18*
                                  • Figure 21: Sara Lee TV Ad: “Sara Lee Artesano Build Something Better 2.0”
                                  • Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select artisan, premium, or crafted brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 23: Purchase intelligence of bread, by select artisan private label products, January 2017-May 2018
                                • Cleaner labels cued by free-from claims
                                  • Figure 24: Nature’s Own TV ad: “Good and Simple Bread Bringing Families Together”
                                  • Figure 25: Bread consumption drivers – Any bread, by free-from claims, April 2018
                                  • Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select BFY brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                • Low-carb tortillas
                                  • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by total identifiable low-carb tortilla brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of Mission Carb Balance, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Private label loaf bread struggles
                                  • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by private label brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • Taste, value issues with gluten-free
                                    • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Snack sized offerings
                                    • Figure 32: Launches of bread, by mini options, 2015-18*
                                  • Packaging that ensures freshness
                                    • Figure 33: Launches of bread, by resealable packaging, 2015-18*
                                  • Foodservice branding
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Sliced loaf bread drives widespread participation
                                      • Diversity, everyday uses can promote increased frequency
                                        • Consumers open to trial of unfamiliar brands, types
                                          • Carb-cutting detrimental to the category
                                            • Leverage existing strengths, communicate other advantages
                                              • Fresh, premium breads may break consumers out of their cycle
                                              • Bread Consumption and Frequency

                                                • Nearly universal bread consumption
                                                  • Figure 34: Bread consumption, April 2018
                                                • Increasing frequency of smaller segments
                                                  • Figure 35: Repertoire of bread consumption, April 2018
                                                  • Figure 36: Bread consumption frequency, April 2018
                                                  • Figure 37: Bread consumption, by bread consumption frequency – At least once daily, April 2018
                                                • Parenthood, household size impactful to variety
                                                  • Figure 38: Repertoire of bread consumption – 2 or less types and 6+ types, by parental status and household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Uses

                                                • Brands can help consumers look past just mealtime use
                                                  • Figure 39: Bread uses, April 2018
                                                • Versatility important to young adults, parents
                                                  • Figure 40: Bread uses, by age, parental status, and household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Consumption Changes

                                                • Most consumers eating the same amount of bread
                                                  • Figure 41: Bread consumption changes, April 2018
                                                • Convenience and versatility key to increased consumption
                                                  • Figure 42: Reasons for increased consumption, April 2018
                                                • Carb-cutting hurting bread category
                                                  • Figure 43: Reasons for decreased consumption, April 2018
                                                • Younger men most likely to consume bread more often
                                                  • Figure 44: Bread consumption changes, by gender and age, April 2018
                                              • Bread Attitudes

                                                • Product freshness, quality key to initiate trial
                                                  • Figure 45: Bread attitudes, April 2018
                                                • Men are more frequent yet steadfast consumers, women are ripe for trial
                                                  • Figure 46: Bread attitudes, by gender and age, April 2018
                                                • Higher income households willing to pay for premium products
                                                  • Figure 47: Bread attitudes, by household income, April 2018
                                                • Larger households interested in resealable packaging
                                                  • Figure 48: Bread attitudes – Packaging that ensures freshness, by household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Type Associations

                                                • Lack of excitement, nutrition in the category
                                                  • Category offers convenient options for any occasion
                                                      • Figure 49: Correspondence Analysis – Bread type associations, April 2018
                                                      • Figure 50: Bread type associations, April 2018
                                                    • Older adults see the nutritional value of wheat
                                                      • Figure 51: Bread type associations – Select associations of wheat loaf bread and white loaf bread, by age, April 2018
                                                    • Younger consumers seek snack options
                                                      • Figure 52: Bread type associations – Good for a snack, by age, April 2018
                                                  • Bread Type Consumption Drivers

                                                    • Few attributes inspire increased consumption
                                                      • Figure 53: Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
                                                    • Low price, high fiber primary drivers of consumption
                                                      • Figure 54: TURF analysis – Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
                                                    • Younger men seek more complex mix of attributes
                                                      • Figure 55: Bread type consumption drivers, by gender and age, April 2018
                                                    • Nutrition appeals to parents, Hispanics
                                                      • Figure 56: Bread type consumption drivers, by parental status, April 2018
                                                      • Figure 57: Bread type consumption drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2018
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                • Terms
                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                    • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 70: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                    • Figure 71: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 72: US supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                    • Figure 73: US sales of bread through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                    • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 78: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                About the report

                                                                This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                • The Consumer

                                                                  What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                • The Competitors

                                                                  Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                • The Market

                                                                  Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                • The Innovations

                                                                  New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                • The Opportunities

                                                                  Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                • The Trends

                                                                  What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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