Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

Packaged Bread - US - July 2018

"Participation is rather steadfast which is proving to be a help and a hindrance to performance in the $21 billion packaged bread category. Sales have remained modestly positive despite the lingering popularity of low carb diets, yet the bulk of consumers are stuck in a holding pattern – neither increasing nor decreasing consumption. The challenge to the category will be to stem attrition while getting current participants to engage more frequently and diversely in the category."
- Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Slow growth expected to continue
  • Consumption continues to slowly wane 
  • Consumers not actively looking to expand consumption
  • Make underutilized segments everyday options
  • Encourage trial, promote freshness
  • Highlight nutrition and excitement
  • Expand bread uses and occasions

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Slow growth expected to continue
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Consumption continues to slowly wane
            • Figure 2: Reasons for decreased consumption – I’m trying to cut down on carbs, April 2018
          • Consumers not actively looking to expand consumption
            • Figure 3: Bread type consumption drivers – none of the above, April 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Make underutilized segments everyday options
              • Figure 4: Bread consumption, April 2018
            • Encourage trial, promote freshness
              • Figure 5: Bread attitudes, April 2018
            • Highlight nutrition and excitement
              • Figure 6: Bread type associations, April 2018
            • Expand bread uses and occasions
              • Figure 7: Bread uses, April 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Minimal growth in bread category
                • Stagnant sales from leading segment fresh loaf bread
                  • Increasing bread prices
                    • Obesity on the rise
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Sales slump continues
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Fresh loaf bread dominates the category, but sales remain flat
                        • Figure 11: Total US market size of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2018 (est)
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Majority of bread sales from traditional supermarkets
                        • Figure 13: Total US market size of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Bread prices climb amid shrinking wheat plantings and consumption
                        • Figure 14: Total US wheat plantings 2014-17 and flour consumption 2014-16
                        • Figure 15: Consumer price index – Average price of bread per pound, 2015 & 2018
                    • Market Factors

                      • Obesity in America continues to climb
                        • Figure 16: Growth in obesity in the US, 2013-15
                      • Declining household size expected to rebound
                        • Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Top two companies struggle to make gains
                        • Artisan, premium breads
                          • Free-from conveys BFY
                            • Stale appeal of private label loaf bread
                              • Gluten-free options struggle with taste and affordability
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Packaged Bread

                                • Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods maintain dominance in bread category
                                  • Figure 18: Dave’s Killer Bread online video: “What We’re All About”
                                • Specialty brands collectively dominate the category
                                  • Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Artisan and premium
                                  • Figure 20: Launches of bread, by premium, artisan, and crafted, 2015-18*
                                  • Figure 21: Sara Lee TV Ad: “Sara Lee Artesano Build Something Better 2.0”
                                  • Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select artisan, premium, or crafted brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 23: Purchase intelligence of bread, by select artisan private label products, January 2017-May 2018
                                • Cleaner labels cued by free-from claims
                                  • Figure 24: Nature’s Own TV ad: “Good and Simple Bread Bringing Families Together”
                                  • Figure 25: Bread consumption drivers – Any bread, by free-from claims, April 2018
                                  • Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select BFY brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                • Low-carb tortillas
                                  • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by total identifiable low-carb tortilla brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of Mission Carb Balance, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Private label loaf bread struggles
                                  • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by private label brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • Taste, value issues with gluten-free
                                    • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Snack sized offerings
                                    • Figure 32: Launches of bread, by mini options, 2015-18*
                                  • Packaging that ensures freshness
                                    • Figure 33: Launches of bread, by resealable packaging, 2015-18*
                                  • Foodservice branding
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Sliced loaf bread drives widespread participation
                                      • Diversity, everyday uses can promote increased frequency
                                        • Consumers open to trial of unfamiliar brands, types
                                          • Carb-cutting detrimental to the category
                                            • Leverage existing strengths, communicate other advantages
                                              • Fresh, premium breads may break consumers out of their cycle
                                              • Bread Consumption and Frequency

                                                • Nearly universal bread consumption
                                                  • Figure 34: Bread consumption, April 2018
                                                • Increasing frequency of smaller segments
                                                  • Figure 35: Repertoire of bread consumption, April 2018
                                                  • Figure 36: Bread consumption frequency, April 2018
                                                  • Figure 37: Bread consumption, by bread consumption frequency – At least once daily, April 2018
                                                • Parenthood, household size impactful to variety
                                                  • Figure 38: Repertoire of bread consumption – 2 or less types and 6+ types, by parental status and household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Uses

                                                • Brands can help consumers look past just mealtime use
                                                  • Figure 39: Bread uses, April 2018
                                                • Versatility important to young adults, parents
                                                  • Figure 40: Bread uses, by age, parental status, and household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Consumption Changes

                                                • Most consumers eating the same amount of bread
                                                  • Figure 41: Bread consumption changes, April 2018
                                                • Convenience and versatility key to increased consumption
                                                  • Figure 42: Reasons for increased consumption, April 2018
                                                • Carb-cutting hurting bread category
                                                  • Figure 43: Reasons for decreased consumption, April 2018
                                                • Younger men most likely to consume bread more often
                                                  • Figure 44: Bread consumption changes, by gender and age, April 2018
                                              • Bread Attitudes

                                                • Product freshness, quality key to initiate trial
                                                  • Figure 45: Bread attitudes, April 2018
                                                • Men are more frequent yet steadfast consumers, women are ripe for trial
                                                  • Figure 46: Bread attitudes, by gender and age, April 2018
                                                • Higher income households willing to pay for premium products
                                                  • Figure 47: Bread attitudes, by household income, April 2018
                                                • Larger households interested in resealable packaging
                                                  • Figure 48: Bread attitudes – Packaging that ensures freshness, by household size, April 2018
                                              • Bread Type Associations

                                                • Lack of excitement, nutrition in the category
                                                  • Category offers convenient options for any occasion
                                                      • Figure 49: Correspondence Analysis – Bread type associations, April 2018
                                                      • Figure 50: Bread type associations, April 2018
                                                    • Older adults see the nutritional value of wheat
                                                      • Figure 51: Bread type associations – Select associations of wheat loaf bread and white loaf bread, by age, April 2018
                                                    • Younger consumers seek snack options
                                                      • Figure 52: Bread type associations – Good for a snack, by age, April 2018
                                                  • Bread Type Consumption Drivers

                                                    • Few attributes inspire increased consumption
                                                      • Figure 53: Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
                                                    • Low price, high fiber primary drivers of consumption
                                                      • Figure 54: TURF analysis – Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
                                                    • Younger men seek more complex mix of attributes
                                                      • Figure 55: Bread type consumption drivers, by gender and age, April 2018
                                                    • Nutrition appeals to parents, Hispanics
                                                      • Figure 56: Bread type consumption drivers, by parental status, April 2018
                                                      • Figure 57: Bread type consumption drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2018
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                • Terms
                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                    • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                    • Figure 70: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                    • Figure 71: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 72: US supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                    • Figure 73: US sales of bread through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                    • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                    • Figure 78: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                Packaged Bread - US - July 2018

                                                                US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)