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Pasta and Noodles - US - April 2019

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, dry pasta and noodles are covered as per the following definitions:

  • dry pasta and noodles: includes spaghetti, macaroni, and other varieties/shapes of dry pasta; dried noodles, including egg noodles and various forms of Asian noodles
  • dry macaroni and cheese mixes
  • dry pasta meal and side dish mixes
  • refrigerated and frozen pasta

Other than for comparison’s sake, ramen soup kits (noodles packaged with flavorings), refrigerated and frozen meals, and macaroni and cheese are excluded, as are shelf-stable canned pasta and shelf-stable ready-to-serve pasta dishes.

"The pasta category remains sizable, but annual sales has been largely stagnant in recent years and is expected to decline. Concerns about carbs and weight loss appear to be strongly impacting consumer behavior. At the same time, health-oriented advances such as vegetables and protein in pasta could stem some of those sales declines and give brands the opportunity to leverage a premium positioning and price."
- William Roberts, Jr, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Particular challenges among pasta mixes
  • Relatively little brand resonance
  • Tap into younger consumers while their tastes are diverse
  • Countering pasta’s negative health perception
  • Premium indulgence

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
        • Particular challenges among pasta mixes
          • Relatively little brand resonance
            • Figure 2: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, February 2019
          • The opportunities
            • Tap into younger consumers while their tastes are diverse
              • Figure 3: Usage of pasta and noodles, by generation, February 2019
            • Countering pasta’s negative health perception
              • Figure 4: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
            • Premium indulgence
              • Figure 5: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • No market recovery in sight
                • Fresh options outpacing growth of shelf-stable varieties
                  • Restaurant competition leveraging quality and healthy appeal
                    • Dieting trends continue to vilify carbs
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Growth continues to be elusive
                        • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Consumer interest in fresh impacts shelf-stable options
                        • Figure 8: Sales of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Channel sales likewise stagnant
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Restaurants as a pasta competitor
                      • Market Factors

                        • Growing consumer confidence, DPI could lead consumers to dine out
                          • Figure 10: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2017-October 2018
                        • Carb backlash continues...in different forms
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Little change among share leaders
                            • Fresh, premium appeal drives refrigerated options
                              • Pasta mixes in need of update
                                • Exploring plants
                                • Company and Brand Sales of Pasta and Noodles

                                  • Market share leader improves position, despite stagnant sales
                                    • Sales of pasta and noodles by company
                                      • Figure 11: Sales of pasta and noodles, by company, 2018 and 2019
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Refrigerated pasta leveraging fresh and premium appeal
                                        • Figure 12: Pasta introductions, by storage type, 2014-18
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Struggling pasta mix category needs focus
                                        • Figure 13: Plant-based pasta introductions, 2018
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Leveraging plant-based appeal with a cleaner label
                                        • Figure 14: Plant-based pasta introductions, 2018
                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                      • Dry pasta remains a staple
                                        • Pasta's diversity resonating with younger consumers
                                          • Pasta's price and ease of preparation resonating
                                            • Healthy opportunities
                                              • Improvements for pasta
                                              • Consumption of Pasta and Noodles

                                                • Consumers most likely to opt for dry pasta
                                                  • Figure 15: Consumption of pasta and noodles, February 2019
                                                • Younger consumers embracing a diversity of pasta types
                                                  • Figure 16: Consumption of dry pasta and noodles, by age, February 2019
                                                  • Figure 17: Consumption of non-dry pasta options, by age, February 2019
                                                • Parents more likely to turn to dry and fresh pasta
                                                  • Figure 18: Consumption of dry pasta options, by parental status, February 2019
                                                  • Figure 19: Consumption of non-dry options, by parental status, February 2019
                                              • Usage of Pasta and Noodles

                                                • Pasta’s diversity on display
                                                  • Figure 20: Usage of pasta and noodles, February 2019
                                                • Younger consumers use pasta in a diversity of occasions
                                                  • Figure 21: Usage of pasta and noodles, by generation, February 2019
                                                  • Figure 22: Usage of pasta and noodles, by household income, February 2019
                                                • Pasta’s use as a snack surges among Hispanic Millennials
                                                  • Figure 23: Usage of pasta and noodles, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
                                              • Pasta and Noodle Drivers

                                                • Ease, cost lead reasons for pasta/noodle usage
                                                  • Figure 24: Pasta and noodle driver opinions, February 2019
                                                • Dry’s appeal could resonate with refrigerated pasta fans
                                                  • Figure 25: Correspondence analysis methodology – Qualities associated with pasta, February 2019
                                              • Innovation Potential

                                                • Protein, vegetables, fiber of strong interest
                                                  • Figure 26: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
                                                • Portability resonating with younger consumers
                                                  • Figure 27: Potential pasta/noodle innovation, by generation, February 2019
                                                • Healthy concept potential among Hispanic Millennials
                                                  • Figure 28: Healthy pasta/noodle innovation, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
                                                • Healthy attributes form the core of pasta’s potential
                                                  • Figure 29: TURF analysis – Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, February 2019
                                              • Repertoire Analysis

                                                • Half of consumers eat a wide diversity of pasta
                                                  • Figure 30: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
                                                • Younger consumers eating a wide range of pasta
                                                  • Figure 31: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, by age, February 2019
                                                  • Figure 32: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, by parental status, February 2019
                                                • Leveraging pasta’s diversity to increase appeal
                                                  • Figure 33: Pasta usage, by repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
                                                • Leveraging freshness’ association with natural
                                                  • Figure 34: Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, by repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
                                              • Attitudes toward Pasta and Noodles

                                                • Opportunities for healthy pasta
                                                  • Figure 35: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, February 2019
                                                • Health, even more than price, factors into Hispanic pasta purchase
                                                  • Figure 36: Buying habits of pasta and noodles, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
                                              • Pasta and Noodles by Consumer Segmentation

                                                • Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
                                                    • Figure 37: Food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2019
                                                    • Figure 38: Pasta consumption, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2019
                                                  • Adventure Eaters opt for variety of pasta types
                                                      • Figure 39: Repertoire of dry pasta/noodle, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
                                                    • Non-dry pastas appeal to Adventure Eaters and Quality Seekers
                                                      • Figure 40: Non-dry pasta/noodle consumption, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
                                                    • Premium’s appeal to Adventure Eaters
                                                      • Figure 41: Potential pasta and noodle driver innovation, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
                                                      • Figure 42: Potential healthy pasta and noodle driver innovation, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
                                                    • Quality Seekers, Adventure Eaters willing to pay a premium for healthy pasta
                                                      • Figure 43: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                  • Figure 44: Total US sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 46: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                  • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry pasta and noodles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta mixes, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pasta, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pasta, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated pasta, at current prices, 2013-22
                                                                  • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated pasta, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 55: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                  • Figure 56: US supermarket sales of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                  • Figure 57: US sales of pasta and noodles through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                  • Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of dry pasta and noodles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
                                                                  • Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of pasta mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
                                                                  • Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of frozen pasta, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
                                                                  • Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated pasta, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
                                                              • Appendix – Correspondence Analysis – Methodology

                                                                  • Figure 62: Correspondence analysis methodology – Qualities associated with pasta, February 2019
                                                              • TURF Analysis – Methodology

                                                                  • Figure 63: Table – TURF analysis – Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, February 2019

                                                              Pasta and Noodles - US - April 2019

                                                              US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)