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Pizza - US - October 2018

"While sales growth has been minimal for retail pizza, a strong uptick in 2018 provides an indication of the growth potential of the category. Continued improvements in flavor variety, quality, and healthfulness will help marketers and retailers take advantage of frozen and refrigerated pizza’s unique combination of convenience and fun."
- John Owen, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Sales growth picks up in 2018
  • Frozen pizza trails take-out and delivery
  • Shopping routine may be a barrier to trying new types and flavors

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales growth picks up in 2018
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Frozen pizza trails take-out and delivery
            • Figure 2: Household pizza consumption, July 2018
          • Shopping routine may be a barrier to trying new types and flavors
            • Figure 3: Frozen and refrigerated pizza behaviors, July 2018
          • The opportunities
            • 35-54 age group emerging as an opportunity market for frozen pizza
              • Figure 4: Household pizza consumption, by age, July 2018
            • Young adults eat pizza across a wider array of occasions
              • Figure 5: Frozen and refrigerated pizza consumption occasions, by age, July 2018
            • Customization appeals to category’s most frequent users
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward frozen and refrigerated pizza, by frequency of frozen pizza consumption, July 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Sales growth picks up in 2018
                • Frozen pizza an increasingly dominant force in the category
                  • Smaller competitors, private label drive frozen pizza growth
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Sales growth picks up in 2018
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at current prices, 2013-23
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Frozen pizza an increasingly dominant force in the category
                      • Smaller competitors, private label drive frozen pizza growth
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales of pizza, by segment, at current prices, 2013-18
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Pizza restaurants represent substantial competition for retail pizza
                        • Figure 10: Share of top 100 restaurant chain sales, 2016
                        • Figure 11: Share of top pizza chain sales, among top 200 restaurant chains, 2016
                        • Figure 12: Change of sales of top pizza chains from one year prior
                    • Market Factors

                      • Incidence of household frozen pizza usage ticks up
                        • Figure 13: Household incidence of frozen pizza consumption, 2013-18
                      • Households with children continue to decline
                        • Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Market share of biggest competitors shifts minimally in latest 52 weeks
                        • Small companies and store brands continue to make gains
                          • Regional competitors hold their own
                            • Alternative crusts and ingredients gain traction
                            • Company and Brand Sales of Pizza

                              • Market share of biggest competitors shifts minimally in latest 52 weeks
                                • Small companies and store brands continue to make gains
                                  • Sales of pizza by company
                                    • Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of pizza, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Regional competitors hold their own
                                    • Bernatello’s Foods
                                      • Home Run Inn Chicago
                                        • Palermo’s
                                          • Premiumization of private label frozen pizza
                                            • No additives/preservatives claims increasingly common on pizza
                                              • Figure 16: Leading claims on pizza product launches, 2013-18*
                                          • What’s Struggling?

                                            • Frozen pizza’s biggest competitors slowly losing ground
                                            • What’s Next?

                                              • Alternative crusts and ingredients gain traction
                                                • A more positive take on ingredients could drive further growth
                                                  • Pizzas with more sophisticated flavors set to gain
                                                    • Figure 17: Interest in pizza concepts, by age, July 2018
                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Frozen pizza trails take-out and delivery
                                                    • Frozen pizza’s dual nature – both utilitarian and fun – defines occasions
                                                      • Shopping routine may be a barrier to trying new types and flavors
                                                        • Crust almost as likely as toppings to factor in pizza purchase decisions
                                                          • Category gets credit for improvement in variety and taste
                                                            • Heaviest users want greater flavor variety
                                                            • Household Pizza Consumption

                                                              • Frozen pizza trails takeout and delivery
                                                                • Figure 18: Household pizza consumption, July 2018
                                                              • 35-54 age group emerging as an opportunity market for frozen pizza
                                                                • Figure 19: Household pizza consumption, by age, July 2018
                                                              • Larger households more likely to opt for frozen pizza
                                                                • Figure 20: Household pizza consumption, by household size, July 2018
                                                              • Parents and young adults the most frequent consumers of frozen pizza
                                                                • Figure 21: Frequency of household frozen pizza consumption, by presence of children and by age, July 2018
                                                            • Pizza Consumption Occasions

                                                              • Frozen pizza’s dual nature – utilitarian and fun – defines occasions
                                                                • Figure 22: Frozen and refrigerated pizza consumption occasions, July 2018
                                                              • Young adults eat pizza across a wider array of occasions
                                                                • Figure 23: Frozen and refrigerated pizza consumption occasions, by age, July 2018
                                                            • Pizza Shopping Behaviors

                                                              • Shopping routine may be a barrier to trying new types and flavors
                                                                • Figure 24: Frozen and refrigerated pizza behaviors, July 2018
                                                              • Younger adults more likely to stick with favorite varieties and brands
                                                                • Figure 25: Frozen and refrigerated pizza behaviors, by age, July 2018
                                                            • Pizza Purchase Factors

                                                              • Crust almost as likely as toppings to factor into pizza purchase decisions
                                                                • Cost ranks third
                                                                  • Figure 26: Frozen and refrigerated pizza purchase factors, July 2018
                                                              • Attitudes toward Pizza

                                                                • Category gets credit for improvement in variety and taste
                                                                  • Opportunity for premium pizza
                                                                    • Figure 27: Attitudes toward frozen and refrigerated pizza, July 2018
                                                                  • Young adults more likely to hold a critical view of category
                                                                    • Figure 28: Attitudes toward frozen and refrigerated pizza, by age, July 2018
                                                                  • Customization appeals to category’s most frequent users
                                                                    • Figure 29: Attitudes toward frozen and refrigerated pizza, by frequency of frozen pizza consumption, July 2018
                                                                • Pizza Concepts

                                                                  • Heaviest users want greater flavor variety
                                                                    • Figure 30: Interest in pizza concepts, by frequency of frozen pizza consumption, July 2018
                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                              • Terms
                                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                  • Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                  • Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 34: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated “take-and-bake” pizza, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 35: Total US sales and forecast of refrigerated “take-and-bake” pizza, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 36: Total US sales and forecast of pizza kits/components, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of pizza kits/components, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 38: Total US retail sales of pizza, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                  • Figure 39: Multi-outlet sales of frozen pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 40: Multi-outlet sales of frozen pizza, by leading companies, 2013-18
                                                                                  • Figure 41: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated “take-and-bake” pizza, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 42: Multi-outlet sales of pizza kits/components, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                              Pizza - US - October 2018

                                                                              US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)