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Potato and Tortilla Chips - US - February 2019

"The potato and tortilla chip market continued to enjoy steady growth even as the market place grows competitive. Consumers exhibit a tendency to stick to familiar brands and tastes and to see chips as an indulgence which may be a challenge to market expansion. Opportunities lie in flavor, functionality, and healthy innovations and through effective outreach to young adults, parents, and Hispanic consumers."
- Mimi Bonnett, Director - Food and Drink, Foodservice

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Slowing growth in a competitive landscape
  • Breaking the habit
  • Despite the bad rap consumers love their chips, for now

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Slowing growth in a competitive landscape
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Breaking the habit
            • Figure 2: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2018
          • Despite the bad rap consumers love their chips, for now
            • Figure 3: Attitudes about chips, November 2018
          • Opportunities
            • Think longer term with younger adults
              • Figure 4: Population by age, 2013-23
            • Hear the call for healthier options, and what that means
              • Figure 5: Attitudes toward chips, November 2018
            • Diversify your portfolio regardless of brand identity
              • Figure 6: Chip innovation areas, by age, November 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • The $14.6 billion market forecast to continue growth through 2023
                • Tortilla chips increase share from 2016-18
                  • Snacking penetration is near universal, and frequency on the rise
                    • Health and wellness trends shape demand for healthier chips
                      • New flavors and varieties
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • The $14.6 billion market forecast to continue growth through 2023
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Potato chips dominate sales, for now
                          • Figure 9: Share of potato and tortilla chips sales, by segment, 2018
                        • Tortilla chips increase share from 2016-18
                          • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                          • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Growing snack occasion continues to get crowded
                          • Figure 12: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
                        • Protein trend encroaches on snack space
                        • Market Factors

                          • Concerns about weight, health, and wellness shape market opportunities
                            • Figure 13: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are overweight or obese, 2001-02 to 2015-16
                          • Aging population affects choice
                            • Boomers seek lows and nos
                              • Millennials and iGens seek natural, more holistic approach
                                • Snacking culture supported by demographic trends
                                  • Figure 14: Population by age, 2013-23
                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                • PepsiCo is clear market leader
                                  • Ruffles and Pringles chipping away at Lay’s share
                                    • Doritos, Tostitos losing ground to Takis
                                      • Private label brands get creative
                                        • Snack adultification in flavors and functionality
                                        • Company and Brand Sales Potato and Tortilla Chips

                                          • PepsiCo sees modest share slip
                                            • Kellogg’s and Snyder’s-Lance expand reach with core brands
                                              • Sales of potato and tortilla chips by company
                                                • Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of potato and tortilla chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                              • Private label gains share with premium innovations
                                              • What’s Working?

                                                • Chips with dips
                                                  • Ruffles’ innovation targets
                                                    • Some like it hot: Takis’and others go extreme
                                                      • Adultified tastes
                                                        • Food, regional and international inspired tastes
                                                        • What’s Struggling?

                                                          • BFY struggles to find its footing
                                                          • What’s Next?

                                                            • A newly defined BFY chip
                                                              • Alternative ingredients
                                                                • Alternative oils
                                                                  • Chips get functional with high protein
                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                    • Chip purchase nearly universal
                                                                      • Habit shapes consumption, but a quest for variety is also in play
                                                                        • Flavor first innovation
                                                                          • Attitudes related to additives, health, and taste underpin behavior
                                                                          • Chips Purchase

                                                                            • 94% have purchased some kind of chip
                                                                              • Figure 16: Chips purchase, November 2018
                                                                              • Figure 17: Chips purchase, repertoire, November 2018
                                                                            • Age determines chip repertoire
                                                                              • Figure 18: Chips purchase, by age, November 2018
                                                                              • Figure 19: Chips purchase, repertoire, by age, November 2018
                                                                            • Parents and families remain a key target
                                                                              • Figure 20: Chips purchase, by parental status, November 2018
                                                                            • Hispanic consumers enjoy and engage in the diversity of the category
                                                                              • Figure 21: Chips purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                                          • Factors Influencing Chips Purchase

                                                                            • Price, brand, and flavor-shaping purchase
                                                                              • Figure 22: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2018
                                                                            • Price is a strong driver for consumers of all ages
                                                                              • Figure 23: Factors influencing chips purchase, by age, November 2018
                                                                            • Parents balance wide range of factors in selecting chips
                                                                              • Figure 24: Factors influencing chips purchase, by parental status, November 2018
                                                                          • Chip Occasions

                                                                            • Chip type determines occasion opps
                                                                              • Figure 25: Chip occasions, November 2018
                                                                            • Versatility drives parents chip occasion fluidity
                                                                              • Figure 26: Chip occasions, by parental status, November 2018
                                                                          • Chip Behaviors

                                                                            • Habit shapes consumption, but a quest for variety is also in play
                                                                              • Figure 27: Chip behaviors, November 2018
                                                                            • Those 55+ set in habits, but younger buyers open to variety and impulse
                                                                              • Figure 28: Chip behaviors, by age, November 2018
                                                                            • Pantries of affluent consumers are diverse
                                                                              • Figure 29: Chip behaviors, by household income, November 2018
                                                                            • Parents’ behavior reveals high engagement in category
                                                                              • Figure 30: Chip behaviors, by parental status, November 2018
                                                                          • Chip Innovation Areas

                                                                            • Innovations related to flavor, health and quality
                                                                              • Figure 31: Chip innovation areas, November 2018
                                                                            • Adults 35-54 want healthier chips, but flavor is prime for 18-34 year olds
                                                                              • Figure 32: Chip innovation areas, by age, November 2018
                                                                            • Parents show high interest in a wide range of innovations
                                                                              • Figure 33: Chip innovation areas, by parental status, November 2018
                                                                            • Interest in innovation high among those who have purchased more
                                                                              • Figure 34: Chip innovation areas, by those who have purchased more in past year or seek new chips, November 2018
                                                                          • Attitudes toward Chips

                                                                            • Attitudes related to additives, health and taste underpin behavior
                                                                              • Figure 35: Health-related attitudes toward chips, November 2018
                                                                            • Key attitudes suggest opportunity for both premium and private label
                                                                              • Figure 36: Attitudes toward chips, November 2018
                                                                            • Younger consumers eager for healthier chip options and free samples
                                                                              • Figure 37: Attitudes toward chips, by age, November 2018
                                                                            • Highly engaged want more samples and healthier chip options
                                                                              • Figure 38: Chip innovation areas, by those who have purchased more in past year or seek new chips, November 2018
                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                            • Data sources
                                                                              • Sales data
                                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                        • Terms
                                                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                            • Figure 39: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                            • Figure 40: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                            • Figure 41: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                            • Figure 42: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                            • Figure 43: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                            • Figure 44: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, at current prices, 2013-2018
                                                                                            • Figure 45: Distribution of population, by age, race, and Hispanic origin, 2018
                                                                                        • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                            • Figure 46: Multi-outlet sales of potato chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                            • Figure 47: Multi-outlet sales of tortilla chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                                        Potato and Tortilla Chips - US - February 2019

                                                                                        US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)