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Poultry - US - December 2018

"Poultry maintained its position as the most widely consumed animal protein with nearly total household penetration. Category sales topped $26.2 billion in 2018, a modest 2% gain from 2017. The universal appeal of poultry comes from its healthy reputation, versatility, and affordability. With consumer interest in protein at a high, poultry is not only poised for success but also charged with defending its position."

– Michael Averbook, Food & Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Is marginal growth a precursor of a category plateau?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Is marginal growth a precursor of a category plateau?
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
          • The opportunities
            • Help to break the mealtime monotony
              • Figure 2: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
            • Red meat’s woes and successes can be a model for poultry opportunity
              • Figure 3: Poultry behavior – Consumption versus last year, September 2018
            • iGens and Millennials and, yep, GenXers can power newer occasions
              • Figure 4: Protein occasions – Chicken and turkey, by for dinner, for lunch, for breakfast, and as a snack, September 2018
            • Hard “clean” claims outweigh ethical
              • Figure 5: Poultry claims, September 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Conservative gains, sizeable market
                • Poultry delivers on value
                  • Healthy eating is on consumer radars
                    • Poultry’s value appeals even in an improved economy
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Category continues marginal growth
                        • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Chickens rule of the roost continues
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Health, versatility, and price make poultry the protein of choice
                        • Figure 9: Protein perceptions – Healthy, good value, and convenient, September 2018
                        • Figure 10: Changes in food price indices, 2017-18
                      • Plant-based alternatives
                        • From cells to poultry
                          • Online butchers a niche part of the poultry market
                          • Market Factors

                            • Most consumers strive to eat healthy
                              • Figure 11: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
                            • Affordable poultry holds its own despite improved economy
                              • Figure 12: Consumer Sentiment Index
                            • Away from home opportunities grow
                              • Figure 13: Consumer expenditures for food, September 2017 and September 2018
                            • Uncertainty in trade issues threaten market volatility
                              • Consumers are waiting longer to have children
                                • Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2008-18
                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                              • Leading brands struggle, private labels gain traction
                                • Top turkey companies post gains
                                  • Brands strive for minimally processed, clean positioning
                                    • Going international
                                      • Next level convenience in poultry innovation
                                      • Company and Brand Sales of Poultry

                                        • Tyson continues domination, but slips
                                          • Perdue refreshes packaging to offset struggles
                                            • Recalls, scandals plague JBS
                                              • Turkey brands take flight
                                                • Private label brightens the category
                                                  • Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                              • What’s Working?

                                                • Private label gains brand share with value, innovation
                                                  • Figure 16: Multi-outlet dollar and unit sales of poultry, by percent change of store brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                  • Figure 17: Attribute scores of poultry – Tasty, exciting, good value, by name brands and store brands, January 2017-November 2018
                                                • “Clean” labels and transparency gain trust
                                                  • Figure 18: Launches of poultry, by hormone-free, all-natural product, and no additives/preservatives, 2017-18*
                                                  • Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by select growing brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                • Fresh birds
                                                  • Figure 20: Poultry formats purchased – Any fresh poultry and any frozen poultry, September 2018
                                                  • Figure 21: Purchase intent of poultry, by select fresh products, January 2017 – September 2018
                                                • Going global
                                                    • Figure 22: Purchase intent of poultry, by select internationally inspired products, January 2017-November 2018
                                                  • Plant-based nuggets, patties, and strips
                                                    • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by select meatless brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                • What’s Struggling?

                                                  • Category leaders lose share to store brands
                                                    • Figure 24: Multi-outlet dollar and unit sales of poultry, by percent change of name brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                • What’s Next?

                                                  • Snacking with the bird
                                                    • Prepared meals and kits offer next-level convenience
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Chicken leads the protein pecking order
                                                        • A time and place for both fresh and frozen
                                                          • Frequency may have peaked, interest has not
                                                            • Turkey chipping away at seasonal ties
                                                              • Mix of excitement and convenience sought after
                                                                • Claims that signify “clean” top wish list
                                                                • Poultry Species Purchased

                                                                  • Chicken, turkey far outpace other birds
                                                                    • Figure 25: Poultry types purchased, September 2018
                                                                  • Young adults reaching for turkey more
                                                                    • Figure 26: Poultry types purchased – Chicken and turkey, by age, September 2018
                                                                  • Men, fathers buy a broader repertoire of poultry types
                                                                    • Figure 27: Poultry types purchased, by parental status by gender, September 2018
                                                                • Poultry Types Purchased

                                                                  • Fresh and frozen both have their place at the table
                                                                    • Figure 28: Poultry types purchased, September 2018
                                                                  • Participant repertoires are 50/50
                                                                      • Figure 29: Repertoire of poultry types purchased, September 2018
                                                                    • Larger households seek flexibility
                                                                      • Figure 30: Repertoire of poultry types purchased – Four or more types, by household size, September 2018
                                                                  • Poultry Consumption

                                                                    • More than half of consumers eat chicken a few times a week
                                                                      • Figure 31: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
                                                                    • Younger men, fathers are most frequent poultry eaters
                                                                      • Figure 32: Protein consumption frequency – Chicken, turkey, and other poultry, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
                                                                  • Protein Perceptions

                                                                    • Leveraging versatility, convenience can nudge consumption
                                                                      • Figure 33: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein perceptions, September 2018
                                                                      • Figure 34: Protein perceptions, September 2018
                                                                    • Younger consumers chipping away at turkey’s seasonality
                                                                      • Figure 35: Protein perceptions – Turkey, by seasonal, September 2018
                                                                    • If you can, hitch your brand to the protein trend
                                                                      • Figure 36: Protein perceptions – Good source of protein, September 2018
                                                                  • Protein Occasions

                                                                    • Keep poultry from becoming mundane
                                                                      • Figure 37: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein occasions, September 2018
                                                                      • Figure 38: Protein occasions, September 2018
                                                                    • Protein content and versatility make snacking a next step
                                                                      • Figure 39: Protein occasions – Chicken and turkey, by for dinner, for lunch, for breakfast, and as a snack, September 2018
                                                                  • Poultry Behavior

                                                                    • Red meat’s decline is poultry’s gain
                                                                      • Figure 40: Poultry behavior, September 2018
                                                                    • Women use variety of types, but men increasing consumption
                                                                      • Figure 41: Poultry behavior, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
                                                                    • Larger households dive deeper into category versatility
                                                                      • Figure 42: Poultry behavior – I used different types depending on the occasion, by household size, September 2018
                                                                  • Poultry Attitudes

                                                                    • Category participants still interested in exploration
                                                                      • Figure 43: Poultry attitudes, September 2018
                                                                    • Older consumers seek to diversify, younger adults experiment and develop skills
                                                                      • Figure 44: Poultry attitudes, by generation, September 2018
                                                                    • Parents looking for help managing family mealtime
                                                                      • Figure 45: Poultry attitudes – Parental status, September 2018
                                                                  • Poultry Claims

                                                                    • Consumers are a little confused by claims
                                                                      • Figure 46: Poultry claims, September 2018
                                                                    • Women seek clean ethics, men choose convenience
                                                                      • Figure 47: Poultry claims, by gender, September 2018
                                                                    • Clean, free-from are “ageless” claims
                                                                      • Figure 48: Poultry claims, by age, September 2018
                                                                    • Mix of free-from claims, convenience, and quality maximizes reach
                                                                      • Figure 49: TURF Analysis – Poultry claims, September 2018
                                                                    • Ethical, clean claims substantiate other poultry
                                                                      • Figure 50: Poultry purchase, by poultry claims, September 2018
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • TURF Methodology
                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Terms
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 53: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Figure 58: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                                Poultry - US - December 2018

                                                                                US $4,395.00 (Excl.Tax)