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Description

Description

“Prepared meals, particularly frozen options, are essential “pantry” items that help consumers feel, well, prepared and even a sense of security, a notion that is even more important during a crisis. And they will play a vital role in the undoubtedly challenging days ahead. Consumers are seeking familiar and comforting foods, creating an opportunity for brands to connect or reinforce the messages they have already forged. Although the circumstances are incredibly different, past recessions can provide a glimpse of what lies ahead. Not surprisingly, value will be at the core, but convenience is a part of value that will be important. These together will provide an ancillary tailwind boost for this already recuperating category. Limited foodservice options in the short term and lingering consumer anxiety in the longer term (coupled with burnout in the kitchen) will sustain growth – if not a boost – that will prolong impact.”

– Billy Roberts, Senior Analyst – Food and Drink

This report covers the following issues:

  • The short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on the category
  • How brands can navigate a recession
  • Key consumer groups for the market
  • Opportunities to extend the core consumer base

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

          • Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on prepared meals, May 2020
          • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
        • The issues
          • Changes in traditional “three squares” continue to reshape approach to mealtime
            • Figure 3: Snacking in place of meals, by age, February 2020
          • Processed concerns still linger despite innovation
            • Figure 4: Opinions of processed prepared meals, by gender, February 2020
          • Consumers seeking transparency
            • Figure 5: Interest in prepared meal transparency, by age, February 2020
          • The opportunities
            • COVID-19 may introduce some consumers to the category
              • Consumers likely acclimate to customizing during COVID-19 lockdowns
                • Figure 6: Customizing opportunity for meals, February 2020
              • Consumer willingness to pay for premium prepared meals
                • Figure 7: Quality and prepared meals, by age, February 2020
            • The Impact of COVID-19 on Prepared Meals

              • What you need to know
                • Figure 8: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on prepared meals, May 2020
              • Opportunities and Threats
                • Value + convenience can benefit all segments
                  • Figure 9: Prepared meal market share by segment, 2017-19
                • Brands can bring the foodservice experience within reach
                  • The role for health and wellbeing is two-fold, and then some
                    • Figure 10: COVID-19 Related Changes in Priorities, Higher Priority, June 4, 2020
                  • Supply chain issues will challenge and boost the category
                    • Impact on the prepared meals market
                      • 2020 sales will get a boost, followed by a return to slower growth
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • How the crisis will affect key prepared meal consumer segments
                        • Meeting family needs is complex, but worth it
                          • Figure 12: Prepared meal consumption, by parental status, February 2020
                        • Consumers under 55 are chill
                          • Figure 13: Prepared meal consumption, by age, February 2020
                        • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the prepared meals category
                          • Unemployment, lingering concerns to prompt a shift in spending
                            • Figure 14: Total US retail sales of single-serve and multi-serve frozen meals, 2007-2013
                          • COVID-19: US context
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • Category enjoys steady growth, even pre-COVID-19
                              • Virtually the entire category sees sizable growth over the past two years
                                • COVID-19 should lead to some category growth
                                  • Snacks encroach upon meals
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Steady growth to accelerate in the wake of COVID-19
                                      • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
                                  • Market Breakdown

                                    • Strong growth for sides and refrigerated meals
                                      • Figure 16: Sales of prepared meals, in millions, by segment, 2017 and 2019
                                    • Migration to mass merchandisers hasn’t impacted prepared meals, yet
                                      • Figure 17: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                  • Market Perspective

                                    • Pandemic followed by recession will negatively impact restaurants
                                      • Figure 18: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
                                    • Consumers continue turn to snacking
                                      • Figure 19: Snacking in place of meals, by age, February 2020
                                    • Cooking enthusiasm wanes, notably less among parents
                                      • Figure 20: Presence of children under 18 in the household, by cooking segment*, July 2018
                                  • Market Factors

                                    • Pandemic leads to uptick in sales, which should continue as economic recession hits
                                      • Figure 21: Consumer confidence, January 2007-April 2020
                                    • Food spending shifting away from home
                                      • Figure 22: Share of food expenditures for in-home food vs dining out, 2013-18
                                    • Meat the problem
                                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                      • Smaller brands make inroads in the category
                                        • Private label positions around premium
                                          • Balance the budget
                                            • Post-COVID-19 concerns will differ little but likely increase from prior to the pandemic
                                            • Company and Brand Sales of Prepared Meals

                                              • Less-processed appeal impacts the category
                                                • Sales of prepared meals by company
                                                  • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                              • What’s Working

                                                • Private label is no longer solely value driven
                                                  • Figure 24: Claims on US launches of prepared meals, private label versus branded, 2018-19
                                                  • Figure 25: Select private label prepared meal launches
                                                • Consumers taking sides
                                                • What’s Struggling

                                                  • Value about more than price
                                                    • Figure 26: Key attribute assessment of Charoen Pokphand’s Zap’ems single-serve meals
                                                  • Kraft Heinz struggles even among its larger brands
                                                  • What to Watch

                                                    • Concerns in the wake of COVID-19 differ little from those pre-pandemic
                                                      • Consumers support brands that provide support
                                                        • Figure 27: Ingredient information interest, by age, February 2020
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Half of consumers turn to frozen single-serve meals
                                                        • It’s a family affair
                                                          • Half of consumers seek meals with natural ingredients
                                                            • Encourage consumers to make a dish their own
                                                              • Set sights on global cuisines
                                                                • Processed stigma lingers
                                                                  • Leveraging quality to expand beyond convenience
                                                                  • Prepared Meal Consumption

                                                                    • Single-serve frozen options lead meal types consumed
                                                                      • Figure 28: Prepared meal consumption, February 2020
                                                                    • Younger consumers much more engaged in the category
                                                                      • Figure 29: Prepared meal consumption, by age, February 2020
                                                                    • Convenience resonating for men and women
                                                                      • Figure 30: Prepared meal consumption, by gender, February 2020
                                                                    • Meeting family needs is complex, but worth it
                                                                      • Figure 31: Prepared meal consumption, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                  • Change in Consumption

                                                                    • Already increased participation in the category will catch a tailwind
                                                                      • Figure 32: Meal usage, February 2020
                                                                    • Parents picking prepared meals
                                                                      • Figure 33: Increasing meal usage, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                  • Important Attributes and Features

                                                                    • Natural claims resonating with meal consumers
                                                                      • Figure 34: Important attributes and features, February 2020
                                                                    • Experience, familiarity drive men’s purchase
                                                                      • Figure 35: Desired meal features, by gender, February 2020
                                                                    • Assure consumers of the quality of the meal experience
                                                                      • Figure 36: TURF analysis – desired meal features, February 2020
                                                                  • Sought-after New Product Features

                                                                    • Brand communication can support customization, values and loyalty
                                                                      • Figure 37: Areas of opportunity for meals, February 2020
                                                                    • Customizing potential to harness self-expression
                                                                      • Figure 38: Areas of opportunity for meals, by age, February 2020
                                                                    • Plant-based may be plateauing
                                                                      • Figure 39: Areas of opportunity for meals, by Hispanic origin, by generation, February 2020
                                                                  • International Cuisines of Interest in Prepared Meals

                                                                    • Leverage expertise in establishing diverse meals
                                                                      • Figure 40: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, February 2020
                                                                    • Younger consumers seeking a diversity of cuisines
                                                                      • Figure 41: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, by age, February 2020
                                                                    • Hispanic cuisine interest largely among familiar cuisines
                                                                      • Figure 42: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, by Hispanic origin, by generation, February 2020
                                                                  • Attitudes toward Prepared Meals

                                                                    • Claims to address processed concerns
                                                                      • Figure 43: Attitudes toward prepared meals, any agree, February 2020
                                                                    • Changing approaches to mealtime present an opportunity for prepared meals brands
                                                                      • Figure 44: Quality and prepared meals, any agree, by age, February 2020
                                                                    • Value positioning could play to widespread interest in larger portions
                                                                      • Figure 45: Quality and prepared meals, any agree, by household income, February 2020
                                                                  • Prepared Meals by Food/Drink Consumer Segmentation

                                                                        • Figure 46: Food/drink consumer segmentation of prepared meals, February 2020
                                                                      • Encourage Time Savers to continue stock-up behaviors
                                                                        • Figure 47: Lack of time to cook, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
                                                                      • Appeal to Adventure Eaters’ adventurous side
                                                                        • Figure 48: Interest in prepared meals with larger portions, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
                                                                      • Quality Seekers generally uninterested in prepared meals
                                                                        • Figure 49: Prepared meal consumption, February 2020
                                                                      • Value Chasers focus on budget and portion size
                                                                        • Figure 50: Interest in paying more for higher-quality prepared meals, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                        • Sales data
                                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of multi-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of multi-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of side dishes, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                                                    • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                    • Figure 62: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                                    • Figure 63: US supermarket sales of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                    • Figure 64: US sales of prepared meals through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of multi-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                                • Appendix – TURF Analysis – Methodology

                                                                                    • Figure 70: TURF Analysis – Desired features, February 2020

                                                                                About the report

                                                                                This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                • The Consumer

                                                                                  What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                • The Competitors

                                                                                  Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                • The Market

                                                                                  Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                • The Innovations

                                                                                  New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                • The Opportunities

                                                                                  Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                • The Trends

                                                                                  What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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