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Processed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - November 2016

“The prospect of imminent cost rises heightens the need for companies to differentiate themselves by means other than price. That many buyers are willing to pay more for farmers’ pay guarantees and for more specific animal welfare details underlines how placing their ethical policies front and centre can pay dividends for companies. Providing transparency on sourcing and production processes should also help to build trust and convey a quality image”
– Alice Baker, Research Analyst

This report examines the following areas:

  • Making ethical claims more tangible could temper buyers’ price focus
  • Transparency on production processes and sourcing would boost consumer trust
  • International dish matching suggestions could revive interest in sausages

This Report examines the UK retail market for processed red meat and poultry.

Processed poultry and red meat is defined in this Report as comprising retail sales of chilled and frozen red meat, poultry and game which has been altered from its original carcase form and has been taken a stage further than cutting into portions, or adding a marinade or sauce.

It includes:

  • Bacon, sausages and burgers
  • Breaded, battered or formed products
  • Sliced cooked or cured meat including ham, continental meats and cooked sausages
  • Canned meats to be served hot or cold (eg canned sausages, burgers, meatballs, pies, meat puddings and pie fillings).

Red meat includes beef, pork and lamb (including mutton). Poultry includes chicken, turkey, duck, goose.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Volatility in the market 2011-16
              • Values continue to fall in 2016
                • Multiple factors to affect the market 2016-21
                  • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, 2011-21
                • Bacon sees ongoing decline, burger and processed poultry growth to slow
                  • Further volume declines expected for cooked sliced and canned products
                    • Figure 2: Growth in UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, by segment, 2011-16 and 2016-21
                  • Warring supermarkets cut prices, weak pound will raise them
                    • Economic slowdown could prompt trading down
                      • Health concerns affect processed meat
                        • Changing habits curb processed meat occasions
                          • Companies and brands
                            • Much of processed meat is dominated by own-label
                              • Princes retains top position in canned meat
                                • Birds Eye remains number one in frozen processed meat and poultry
                                  • Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail frozen processed meat, poultry and meat-free meal components market, by value, 2015/16*
                                • NPD looks to add value
                                  • Advertising spend falls in 2015
                                    • The consumer
                                      • Processed meat remains a menu staple
                                        • Figure 4: Usage of processed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
                                      • Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
                                        • Figure 5: Processed meat, poultry and game buying factors, by purpose, August 2016
                                      • Emphasis on cooking times can mine convenience demand
                                        • Opportunities for burgers and sausages with hidden extras
                                          • Figure 6: Interest in new product concepts in processed meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                        • Transparency on production would boost trust, ethical claims can temper price focus
                                          • Figure 7: Attitudes towards processed meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                        • Weak image as versatile is a threat for sandwich meat
                                          • Figure 8: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality, August 2016
                                        • What we think
                                        • Issues and Insights

                                          • Making ethical claims more tangible could temper buyers’ price focus
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • Transparency on production processes and sourcing would boost consumer trust
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                      • International dish matching suggestions could revive interest in sausages
                                                        • The facts
                                                          • The implications
                                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                            • Volatility in the market 2011-16
                                                              • Values continue to fall in 2016
                                                                • Multiple factors to affect the market 2016-21
                                                                  • Bacon sees ongoing decline, burger and processed poultry growth to slow
                                                                    • Further volume declines expected for cooked sliced and canned products
                                                                      • Warring supermarkets cut prices, weak pound will raise them
                                                                        • Economic slowdown could prompt trading down
                                                                          • Health concerns affect processed meat
                                                                            • Changing habits curb processed meat occasions
                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                              • Volatility in the market 2011-16
                                                                                • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, 2011-21
                                                                                • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, 2011-21
                                                                              • Multiple economic and social factors to affect growth 2016-21
                                                                                • The impact of the EU referendum vote
                                                                                  • Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the processed poultry and red meat market, 2016-21
                                                                                  • Figure 12: Alternative scenarios for the processed poultry and red meat market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                                                                • Potential for economic slowdown to benefit some segments, but limited by changing lifestyles
                                                                                  • Health concerns and diet choices curb the appeal of processed meat
                                                                                    • Weakened disposable incomes could prompt trading down
                                                                                      • Role of inflation
                                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                                        • Market Segmentation

                                                                                          • Values for red meat meal components fall 2014-16
                                                                                            • Figure 13: Value sales of red meat meal components, by segments, 2011-16
                                                                                          • Multiple factors push down bacon and sausage values and volumes
                                                                                            • Usage occasions curbed by wider food trends
                                                                                              • Health concerns stoked by WHO
                                                                                                • Price wars keep values in check
                                                                                                  • Americana and gourmet trends support burger sales
                                                                                                    • Import-led inflation for bacon to push up overall values 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, by segment, 2011-21
                                                                                                    • NPD boosts processed poultry sales in 2016
                                                                                                      • Volume growth to slow 2016-21
                                                                                                        • Decline in sliced bread sales hinders cooked sliced meat and poultry
                                                                                                          • Ongoing decline of bread to continue to push down volumes 2016-21
                                                                                                            • Canned meat struggles under negative consumer perceptions
                                                                                                              • Volume sales to continue to fall, but inflation to slow value decline
                                                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                • Supermarket price wars push down values
                                                                                                                  • Figure 15: Retail price index for processed pork products, by segment, and comparison with total food, 2011-16
                                                                                                                • Brexit vote creates economic uncertainty
                                                                                                                  • Weakened pound could lead to inflation
                                                                                                                    • Economic slowdown could prompt trading down
                                                                                                                      • Health concerns affect processed meat
                                                                                                                        • Decline in carrier products hampers cooked sliced meat and poultry
                                                                                                                          • Consumers’ desire for convenience reduces cooked breakfast occasions
                                                                                                                            • Interest in world foods increases competition for mealtime options
                                                                                                                              • Summer weather pivotal for burgers and sausages
                                                                                                                                • Figure 16: Sunshine hours in the UK, by month, 2011-16
                                                                                                                            • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                              • Much of processed meat is dominated by own-label
                                                                                                                                • Princes retains top position in canned meat
                                                                                                                                  • Birds Eye remains number one in frozen processed meat and poultry
                                                                                                                                    • NPD looks to add value
                                                                                                                                      • Advertising spend falls in 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                                                        • Much of processed meat is dominated by own-label
                                                                                                                                          • Canned meat
                                                                                                                                            • Princes retains top position
                                                                                                                                              • Packaging revamps and NPD from top 5 players
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 17: UK retail sales of canned meat, by leading brands, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 18: UK retail sales of canned meat, by leading manufacturers, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                              • Frozen processed meat and poultry
                                                                                                                                                • Birds Eye retains top position in frozen processed meat and poultry
                                                                                                                                                  • Bernard Matthews acquired by Boparan
                                                                                                                                                    • Meat-free brands and own-label gain ground
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 19: UK retail sales of frozen processed meat, poultry and meat-free meal components, by leading brands, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: UK retail sales of frozen processed meat, poultry and meat-free meal components, by leading brands, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                    • Chilled sandwich meat and cooked sausages
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 21: UK retail sales of chilled sandwich meat^ and cooked sausages, by leading brands, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: UK retail sales of chilled sandwich meat^ and cooked sausages, by leading manufacturers, 2013/14-2015/16
                                                                                                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                    • Morrisons expands Farmers range with Bacon for Farmers
                                                                                                                                                      • Kerry targets busy parents with Richmond Shake & Bake
                                                                                                                                                        • Wall’s reformulates and relaunches
                                                                                                                                                          • Brands strive to improve the image of breaded poultry
                                                                                                                                                            • Birds Eye moves on health with wholegrain-coated Chicken Grills
                                                                                                                                                              • M&S targets dieters with Skinny Beef Burgers
                                                                                                                                                                • Fish brands extend into breaded poultry
                                                                                                                                                                  • Further growth in processed game products
                                                                                                                                                                    • New deli meat brands focus on sourcing
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brands and retailers look to capitalise on Olympics buzz with Brazil-inspired flavours
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sainsbury’s promotes sausage snap packs as reducing food waste
                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                          • Advertising spend falls in 2015
                                                                                                                                                                            • Kerry remains the largest spender in 2015
                                                                                                                                                                              • Convenience aspects of Perfect Bake promoted as allowing for more family time
                                                                                                                                                                                • Promoting Richmond sausages as supporting family unity with toy tracker chip
                                                                                                                                                                                  • TV dinner advert aims to create a fun image
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on processed meat and poultry, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lidl puts the emphasis on quality
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Birds Eye continues with ‘the food of life’ adverts
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Morrisons leads on advertising in 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Focus on in-store preparation to give image of transparency and integrity
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appealing to the emotions through reference to social meal occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pushing sausages’ versatility through highlighting special occasion uses
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Processed meat remains a menu staple
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Emphasis on cooking times can mine convenience demand
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Opportunities for burgers and sausages with hidden extras
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Transparency on production and sourcing would boost consumer trust
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Making ethical claims more tangible could temper buyers’ price focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Weak image as versatile is a threat for sandwich meat
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Usage of Processed Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Greater transparency fuels higher usage for raw products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Usage of processed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Usage does not decline with age
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Families are key users of processed meat and poultry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Deli meats’ lower price allows for more frequent usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Usage frequency for processed meat/poultry/game, by purpose, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Processed Meat, Poultry and Game Buying Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scope to shift the focus away from price among a significant minority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Processed meat, poultry and game buying factors, by purpose, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Need for high-meat-content products to emphasize this more strongly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Emphasis on cooking times should appeal to desire for convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Resealable packaging particularly valued for sandwich meats
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in New Product Concepts in Processed Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities for burgers and sausages with hidden extras
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hidden sauces and fillings could offer contrasting flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Products with vegetables appeal especially to parents
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Interest in new product concepts in processed meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Butchers’ shops well placed to mine interest in international flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dish matching suggestions could help to revive interest in sausages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Processed Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Transparency on production processes and sourcing would boost companies’ standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • QR codes offer a viable means to satisfy consumer desire for information on farms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Transparency on production processes could help to address negative perceptions of breaded poultry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Attitudes towards processed meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Making ethical claims more tangible could temper buyers’ price focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Demonstrating good farmer relations should boost companies’ standing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Confusion over assurance schemes suggests clarification on animal welfare policies needed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Perceptions of Selected Types of Processed Meat, Poultry and Game Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Greater trust in raw products’ naturalness and healthiness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sandwich meat less likely to be seen as versatile than raw products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • High meat content should be emphasised more to boost natural image
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Breaded poultry could take cues from foodservice to reassure consumers on production processes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Innovation in coatings could help these to be seen as healthier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: UK retail value sales of red meat meal components, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: UK retail value sales of red meat meal components, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of red meat meal components 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: UK retail value sales of processed poultry, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: UK retail value sales of processed poultry, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of processed poultry 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: UK retail value sales of cooked sliced meat and poultry, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: UK retail value sales of cooked sliced meat and poultry, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of cooked sliced meat and poultry 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: UK retail value sales of canned meat, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: UK retail value sales of canned meat, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of canned meat 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Perceptions of Selected Types of Processed Meat, Poultry and Game Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality - Unhealthy, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality -Versatile, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality – Good value for money, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality – Natural, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Perceptions of selected types of processed meat, poultry and game products, by quality –, Convenient, August 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Processed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - November 2016

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