Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept and close

Description

Description

“QSR sales will look much different than those in 2019, along with restaurant industry sales as a whole, due to the COVID-19 outbreak. However, QSRs are uniquely poised to overcome COVID-19-related economic strain and hardship due to their lower price points and continued investments in takeout, drive-thru and delivery services. QSRs will likely steal more market share from full service competitors in 2020 and beyond.”
– Jill Failla, Foodservice Analyst

This report looks at the following issues:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the QSR market
  • How the market will fare in the post-COVID-19 slowdown
  • Drive-thrus see increased legal bans
  • How Gen Zs and Millennials are driving the shift of fast food consumption to off-premise

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Definition
        • Executive Summary

            • Market overview
              • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants*, at current prices, 2019-24
            • Impact of COVID-19 on QSRs
              • Figure 2: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on QSRs, April 2020
            • Top takeaways
              • The issues
                • Dining out will suffer in a recession
                  • Figure 3: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
                • Drive-thrus see increased legal bans
                  • Figure 4: Fast food purchase drivers, by demographics, February 2020
                • The opportunities
                  • Parents are increasingly relying on fast food to feed their family
                    • Figure 5: Fast food purchases for children year over year, by parental status, February 2020
                  • Gen Zs and Millennials are driving the shift of fast food consumption to off-premise
                    • Figure 6: Fast food dining behaviors year over year, by generation, February 2020
                    • Figure 7: Change in takeout and delivery behavior, April 2020
                  • QSRs must continue to invest in environmentally friendly packaging
                    • Figure 8: Fast food innovative concept interest, by age, February 2020
                  • What’s next
                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on QSRs

                      • Figure 9: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on QSRs, April 2020
                    • Opportunities and Threats
                      • The US restaurant industry will become smaller
                        • Foodservice retail threat will cut in
                          • Off-premise investments will reward QSRs
                            • Figure 10: Change in takeout and delivery behavior, April 2020
                          • Mintel’s Global Trend Pillars Localism, Community will motivate restaurant visitation
                            • Figure 11: Popeyes TV campaign, April 2020
                          • Driven by consumers’ desire for nostalgia, QSR comfort food will win short-term sales gains
                            • Figure 12: McDonald’s video campaign, March 2020
                          • Value and family meals will take center stage in the short and medium terms
                            • Figure 13: Chick-fil-A email “Introducing easy meal ordering to feed your family,” April 3, 2020
                          • Impact on the QSR market
                            • 2020 LSR sales nosedive because of COVID-19
                              • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants*, at current prices, 2019-24
                            • How the crisis will affect QSRs’ key consumer segments
                              • Consumers overall, including key segments, are choosing grocery over restaurants and will continue to do so to some extent in the longer-term
                                • Figure 15: COVID-19 lifestyle changes, March - April 2020
                              • Core customers slightly more reliant on QSRs that consumers overall, underscoring the importance of continued communication and connection
                                • Figure 16: Fast food restaurant visitation, by select demographics, February 2020
                              • But a lack of dine-in service will hurt QSRs’ appeal to core users into the medium-term
                                • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the QSR industry
                                  • Dining out will take a big hit if US enters a recession
                                    • Figure 17: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
                                    • Figure 18: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, by gender, November 2019
                                  • COVID-19: US context
                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                    • LSRs will see sharp sales declines due to COVID-19
                                      • Dining out will suffer during a recession
                                        • Fast casual growth slows
                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                            • 2020 LSR sales nosedive because of COVID-19
                                              • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants*, at current prices, 2019-24
                                          • Market Breakdown

                                            • Fast casual restaurants continue to steal share from QSRs, but at a slower pace year over year
                                              • Figure 20: percentage share of Top 200 limited service restaurant sales, by segment, 2017-18*
                                              • Figure 21: Top 200 limited service restaurant sales and percentage sales growth, by segment, 2016-18*
                                          • Market Perspective

                                            • Segment blurring deepens
                                              • Retailers compete with QSR convenience
                                              • Market Factors

                                                • Drive-thru bans
                                                  • Dining out will take a big hit if US enters a recession
                                                    • Figure 22: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
                                                    • Figure 23: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, by gender, November 2019
                                                • Key Trends – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Winning QSR chains excel in technology, value
                                                    • Off-premise business takes over
                                                      • Plant-based and chicken innovation dominates QSR menus
                                                        • Environmentally friendly takeout packaging will move center stage
                                                        • QSR Chain Landscape

                                                          • Trend drivers – what motivates consumer visitation among Top 10 QSR chains?
                                                              • Figure 24: Mintel’s Global Trend Drivers and Pillars
                                                              • Figure 25: Leading 10 QSR chains among top 200 chains, 2017-18*
                                                            • Chick-fil-A taps into value and technology to jump ahead four spots in Top 200 restaurant chain ranking
                                                              • Domino’s dominates technology and value, and gains from Papa John’s identity struggles
                                                                • Starbucks wins with surrounding, technology and experiences to maintain strong growth
                                                                • What’s Working

                                                                  • Off-premise investments
                                                                    • Figure 26: Change in takeout and delivery behavior, April 2020
                                                                  • Loyalty programs
                                                                    • Plant-based innovation
                                                                      • Chicken menu items hatch across QSRs
                                                                      • What’s Struggling

                                                                        • Breakfast wars rage on
                                                                        • What’s Next?

                                                                          • Moveable feasts
                                                                            • Ghost restaurants
                                                                              • Mobile kitchens
                                                                                • A nostalgic return to comfort
                                                                                  • Figure 27: McDonald’s video campaign, March 2020
                                                                                • Environmentally friendly takeout packaging
                                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                  • Parents are key to QSR business
                                                                                    • Cost concerns stymie QSR menu innovation
                                                                                      • Young consumers drive demand for more eco-friendly QSR packaging
                                                                                      • Fast Food Restaurant Visitation

                                                                                        • Young dads are core fast food customers
                                                                                          • Figure 28: Fast food restaurant visitation, by select demographics, February 2020
                                                                                      • Fast Food Purchase Drivers

                                                                                        • Fast service is more important than special deals at fast food restaurants
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Fast food purchase drivers, February 2020
                                                                                        • Fast service will eventually become more important than location of fast food restaurants
                                                                                          • Figure 30: Fast food purchase drivers, by generation, February 2020
                                                                                        • Drive-thru service is important for Hispanic visitation to QSRs
                                                                                          • Figure 31: Fast food purchase drivers, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                        • QSRs can win business from higher income consumers with a nice atmosphere and healthy menu options
                                                                                          • Figure 32: Fast food purchase drivers, by income, February 2020
                                                                                        • Moms rely on the drive-thru
                                                                                          • Figure 33: Fast food purchase drivers, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                        • Healthy options can improve fast food purchases by 8%
                                                                                          • Figure 34: TURF Analysis – Fast food purchase drivers, February 2020
                                                                                      • Fast Food Technology

                                                                                        • About half of consumers are uninterested in third-party delivery from fast food restaurants
                                                                                          • Figure 35: Fast food technology, February 2020
                                                                                        • Consumers are increasingly engaging with QSR technology
                                                                                          • Figure 36: Year-over-year fast food technology usage and intent, February 2020 and February 2019
                                                                                        • Young Millennials drive growth of QSR technologies
                                                                                          • Figure 37: Fast food technology, by generation, February 2020
                                                                                        • Black and Hispanic consumers are biggest users of fast food delivery
                                                                                          • Figure 38: Fast food technology, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                        • Parents are much more likely than non-parents to use QSR tech
                                                                                          • Figure 39: Fast food technology, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                          • Figure 40: Chick-fil-A email “Introducing easy meal ordering to feed your family,” April 3, 2020
                                                                                      • Innovative Fast Food Technology Interest

                                                                                        • Nearly half of QSR customers want dedicated drive-thru lanes for mobile/online order pickups
                                                                                            • Figure 41: Innovative fast food technology interest, February 2020
                                                                                          • Gen Zs drive interest in mobile-based subscription programs at QSRs
                                                                                            • Figure 42: Innovative fast food technology interest, by generation, February 2020
                                                                                          • Non-White consumers look for more innovative QSR tech
                                                                                            • Figure 43: Innovative fast food technology interest, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                          • City fast food stores should consider testing walk-up windows
                                                                                            • Figure 44: Innovative fast food technology interest, by area, February 2020
                                                                                        • Fast Food Menu Item Interest

                                                                                          • Value meals and snacks are expectations at QSRs
                                                                                            • Figure 45: Fast food menu item interest, February 2020
                                                                                          • Gen Zs won’t pay for premium meats at QSRs
                                                                                            • Figure 46: Fast food menu item interest, February 2020
                                                                                          • Black and Asian QSR customers drive interest in meatless menu items
                                                                                            • Figure 47: Fast food menu item interest, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                          • Higher income QSR consumers are most interested in global bowls and plant-based burgers
                                                                                            • Figure 48: Fast food menu item interest, by household income, February 2020
                                                                                        • Fast Food Dining Behaviors Year over Year

                                                                                          • Parents increasingly lean on fast food meal solutions
                                                                                            • Figure 49: Fast food dining behaviors year over year, February 2020
                                                                                          • Dads in particular rely on fast food
                                                                                            • Figure 50: Fast food dining behaviors year over year, by parental status and gender, February 2020
                                                                                          • Young consumers are increasingly eating their fast food off-premise
                                                                                            • Figure 51: Fast food dining behaviors year over year, by generation, February 2020
                                                                                        • Fast Food Innovative Concept Interest

                                                                                          • Fast food consumers want to see more eco-friendly packaging options
                                                                                            • Figure 52: Fast food innovative concept interest, February 2020
                                                                                          • 18-34 year olds are driving the demand for better QSR packaging
                                                                                            • Figure 53: Fast food innovative concept interest, by age, February 2020
                                                                                          • Black consumers show highest interest in functional QSR ingredients
                                                                                            • Figure 54: Fast food innovative concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                          • Parents drive demand for trendy and high protein diet fare at QSRs
                                                                                            • Figure 55: Fast food innovative concept interest, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                                            • Sales data
                                                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                • Direct marketing creative
                                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                      • Terms
                                                                                                      • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                        • TURF Methodology

                                                                                                        About the report

                                                                                                        This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                        • The Consumer

                                                                                                          What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                        • The Competitors

                                                                                                          Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                        • The Market

                                                                                                          Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                        • The Innovations

                                                                                                          New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                        • The Opportunities

                                                                                                          Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                        • The Trends

                                                                                                          What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                        Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

                                                                                                        Trusted by companies. Big and small.

                                                                                                        • bell
                                                                                                        • boots
                                                                                                        • google
                                                                                                        • samsung
                                                                                                        • allianz
                                                                                                        • kelloggs
                                                                                                        • walgreens
                                                                                                        • redbull
                                                                                                        • unilever
                                                                                                        • Harvard
                                                                                                        • pinterest
                                                                                                        • new-york-time