2020
9
UK B2B Economic Outlook 2020
2021-01-28T03:01:34+00:00
OX989514
1495
133233
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Report
en_GB
“The economic impact of COVID-19 has been severe and widespread, though the effect on the separate sectors of the economy has been highly varied. With the vaccination roll-out having commenced…

£ 1,495 (Excl.Tax)

Description

“The economic impact of COVID-19 has been severe and widespread, though the effect on the separate sectors of the economy has been highly varied. With the vaccination roll-out having commenced in December 2020 the prospects for economic recovery gathering pace during 2021 have improved, though the first half of the year will be impacted by the further national lockdown initiated in January 2021 and the Chancellor has indicated that he anticipates a further decline in activity before improvement. The recovery of the economy will continue into 2022. The widely feared impact of a no-deal Brexit has now been averted as of late December, minimising disruption to manufacturing, agricultural and trading sectors.
– Terry Leggett, Senior Analyst

 

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key takeaways
    • Economic overview
    • Public sector borrowing dominated by COVID-19
    • Bank rate impacted by COVID-19 too
    • Unemployment rising
    • CPI edging upwards
    • Earnings also edging upwards
    • Business health
    • Business investment takes major hit
    • Business confidence falls
    • Company births and deaths severely impacted
    • Special focus: Construction
    • GDP exaggerated again
    • What’s next?
    • At last – a trade deal with the EU
    • GDP
  2. Economic Overview

    • UK Structure
      • Figure 1: Structure of the UK economy, by sector, start of 2020 (% of turnover by companies)
      • Figure 2: Structure of the UK economy, by size of company, start of 2020 (% of turnover by companies)
    • GDP – the substantial COVID-19 shock
      • Figure 3: UK GDP monthly index, January 2007-October 2020
      • Figure 4: Monthly output index of UK sectors, Jan-Oct 2020
    • Public sector borrowing – the substantial COVID-19 related increase
      • Figure 5: Public sector net borrowing, 2006/07 – April-October 2020
    • Bank rate – the COVID-19 related lowest level ever
      • Figure 6: Bank rate, by date of adjustment, 2008-20
    • CPI
      • Figure 7: Consumer price index, 12-month rate, October 2019 – October 2020
    • Employment, furlough and unemployment
      • Figure 8: UK employment rate, July-September 2007-20
      • Figure 9: Number of furloughed employments, March-August 2020
      • Figure 10: Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme claims, at 31 August 2020
      • Figure 11: Unemployment by industry, July-September 2019 and 2020
    • Earnings strengthen in Q3
      • Figure 12: Annual growth in average weekly earnings, Q3 2007-20
  3. Business Health

    • Business investment
      • Figure 13: Business investment, Q1 2018 – Q2 2020
    • Business confidence
      • Figure 14: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q2 2008 – Q4 2020
    • Productivity
      • Figure 15: UK productivity measured by output per hour, Q1 2008- Q3 2020
      • Figure 16: UK Productivity measured by inputs and outputs, Q1 2018 – Q2 2020
    • Business births and deaths
      • Figure 17: Business births and deaths, 2012-2019
  4. Special Focus: Construction

    • General
      • Figure 18: UK GDP, new construction and R&M growth rate comparison, 2007-19
      • Figure 19: UK GDP, new construction and R&M growth rate quarterly comparison, 2019-Q3 2020
    • Housing
      • Figure 20: New house building construction activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
      • Figure 21: Comparison of social and private housing completions in the UK, 1970-2019
    • Private industrial construction
      • Figure 22: Private industrial construction activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
    • Private commercial construction
      • Figure 23: Private commercial construction activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
    • New public non-residential construction
      • Figure 24: Public non-residential construction activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
    • New infrastructure
      • Figure 25: New infrastructure activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
    • Repair and maintenance
      • Figure 26: Repair and maintenance activity, 2007-2020 (Prepared on 14 December 2020)
  5. What’s Next?

    • The December Brexit trade deal changes the prospects
    • A phased and uncertain recovery from COVID-19
      • Figure 27: Expectations of GDP annual percentage change, 2020-25
      • Figure 28: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID on the UK economy, by sector, Prepared on 14 December 2020 and reviewed 12 January 2021
    • Unemployment
      • Figure 29: Expectations of employment and unemployment, 2020-25
  6. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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