2021
9
UK B2B Economic Outlook- Summer 2021
2021-06-22T04:08:09+01:00
OX1045893
1495
139568
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Report
en_GB
“Latest economic data indicates a rebound in the UK economy, bolstered by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the rapid vaccine roll-out. Businesses are also becoming more confident with a number of surveys suggesting…

UK B2B Economic Outlook- Summer 2021

£ 1,495 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Latest economic data indicates a rebound in the UK economy, bolstered by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the rapid vaccine roll-out. Businesses are also becoming more confident with a number of surveys suggesting improved expectations for economic conditions and investment intentions.

While the UK economy looks set for a fast recovery over the coming months the longer term outlook is less clear. It remains uncertain what the economic conditions will be when government support schemes expire later this year and a potential rise in business failures would disrupt the economic recovery.”

–  Claudia Preedy, Senior B2B Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key Takeaways
    • Economic recovery gathering pace
    • COVID-19 leads to substantial increase in public borrowing
    • Bank rate at historic low
    • Government support schemes prevent large rise in unemployment
    • Inflation set to rise as some of the COVID-19 effects fade
    • Business health
    • Business investment takes COVID-19 hit
    • Businesses are becoming more confident
    • Insolvencies are down as government support measures help businesses keep going
    • Special focus: utilities
    • What’s next?
  2. Economic Overview

    • UK economy shows resilience in Q1 2021
      • Figure 1: Annual GDP growth rate, 2015- 20, (Annual % change)
    • Public sector borrowing – the substantial COVID-19 related increase
      • Figure 2: Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, 2008-21
    • Bank rate remains at historic low of 0.1%
      • Figure 3: Bank rate, 2008-20, by date of adjustment
    • Inflation set to rise as some of the COVID-19 effects fade
      • Figure 4: Consumer Price Index, January 2020 – March 2021, (12-month Rate)
    • Average wage growth remains strong, but data skewed by COVID-19 related changes in labour market
      • Figure 5: Real average weekly earnings, total pay, January 2020 –February 2021, (three month average % change year-on-year, seasonally adjusted)
    • Unemployment rate expected to only rise slightly when job support scheme ends
      • Figure 6: Number of furloughed employments, 1 March 2020- 31 March 2021
      • Figure 7: Coronavirus job retention scheme claims take-up rate, by sector, at 28 February 2021
  3. Business Health

    • Business investment
      • Figure 8: UK business investment, £ million, Q1 2015 – Q4 2020
    • Businesses are becoming more confident
      • Figure 9: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q1 2014 – Q1 2021
    • Productivity
      • Figure 10: UK productivity measured by output per hour, Q1 2009 – Q4 2020
    • Insolvencies are down as government support measures help businesses keep going
      • Figure 11: Registered company insolvencies in England and Wales, Q1 2018-Q1 2021
  4. Special Focus: Utilities

    • COVID-19 lockdown restrictions lead to record low energy consumption in 2020
      • Figure 12: Consumption of electricity, by sector, 2010-20
      • Figure 13: Consumption of natural gas, by sector, 2010-20
    • Total household expenditure on energy
      • Figure 14: UK household expenditure on energy, 2011-20, (£ million)
    • The economic contribution of the energy and water and sewerage sectors
      • Figure 15: GVA generated by the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector, 2014-19, (£ million at current price estimates)
      • Figure 16: GVA generated by the water supply and sewerage sector, 2013-18, (£ million at current price estimates)
    • Transition to clean energy drives capital investment in UK energy sector
      • Figure 17: Investment in the electricity and gas industries, 2012-19, (£ billion)
    • Investment in water and sewerage industry
      • Figure 18: UK capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2016/17-2019/20, (£ million)
  5. What’s Next?

    • Shift away from trade with the EU and towards non-EU countries
      • Figure 19: UK exports with EU and Non-EU countries, January 2020- March 2021
      • Figure 20: UK imports from EU and Non-EU countries, January 2020- March 2021
    • Economic recovery gathering pace, but longer term outlook less clear
      • Figure 21: Expectations of GDP annual percentage change, 2021-25
    • Unemployment
      • Figure 22: Expectations of employment and unemployment, 2020-25
  6. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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