Canada Budget Food and Drink Shopper: 2026
"Food inflation remains a central concern for consumers. Grocers and producers must find ways to offer value that appeals to weary shoppers."
Joel Gregoire, Associate Director of Food & Drink Reports
Food inflation in Canada remains high, with grocery prices consistently outpacing the broader Consumer Price Index. This trend has impacted consumer behaviour: nearly 70% of shoppers now claim to spend more of their budget on food, primarily blaming rising costs on trade disputes. Consequently, the “buy Canadian” sentiment remains a strong purchase driver, though it has stabilized since the initial tariff threats of early 2025.
The causes of rising prices are complex. For instance, climate-induced droughts have had a substantial impact on beef prices. However, public perception often shifts the blame toward grocers and producers. Food and drink industry stakeholders must bridge the gap between economic realities and consumer frustration. Offering tangible value is no longer optional; it is critical.
Grocers can, however, leverage consumers’ demand for value and view challenges as opportunities. By investing in robust loyalty programs, private-label goods, and targeted promotions, businesses can provide financial relief while enhancing loyalty.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Impact of food inflation on shopper behaviour and channel mix
- Rise of discount banners and dollar stores as sources of value
- Consumer trust deficit – “greedflation” accusations and maple-washing skepticism
- Tech-enabled budgeting tools altering purchase journeys
- Trade-tension fallout and patriotism driving demand for authentic Canadian products
- Impact of generational and financial divides in actions taken to save
- Innovation related to traceability, food-rescue apps, the environment
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Outlook for the budget food and drink shopper
- Opportunities
- Patriotic play: ‘made-in-Canada’ bolsters connections and trust
- Invest in real-time savings ecosystems using technology
- Look beyond price to convey value
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THE MARKET
- Canadians can expect to pay more for groceries in 2026
- Food inflation jumps in November
- Graph 1: annual change in CPI and retail food prices by month, January 2019-November 2025
- Beef and coffee prices are skyrocketing
- Graph 2: year over year monthly percent change by select category, November 2025 vs November 2024
- Why is beef so expensive?
- Why is coffee so expensive?
- US/Canada trade relations in 2025
- Supply management is a sticking point for the Trump administration
- Rising grocery prices lead to resentment
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THE CONSUMER
- Budget consciouness and the retail landscape
- Almost half of shoppers report being more budget-conscious
- Those worse off financially pay closer attention to their grocery budgets
- Graph 3: “I am watching how much I spend on groceries now…”, by financial situation, 2025
- Price savings is a more compelling driver of where consumers shop than buying local
- Graph 4: done over the last two months, 2025
- Discount store visits are growing, but most Canadians still turn to conventional banners
- Graph 5: where individuals get groceries, 2025
- Dollar stores are increasingly becoming a source for groceries
- Graph 6: change in the quantity of groceries purchased by channel versus a year ago, 2025
- Channel usage: takeaways
- Areas of blame and perceived solutions
- Canadians blame unpredictable US trade policy for higher food prices
- Graph 7: what or who consumers think are mainly responsible for higher food prices (select three), 2025
- Generational dynamics impact perceived rationale for higher food prices
- Graph 8: what or who consumers think are mainly responsible for higher food prices (select three), by generation, 2025
- Canadians lack consensus on the best way to address higher food prices
- Graph 9: attitudes toward the impact of government intervention and market competition on grocery prices, 2025
- Boomers prefer competition to keep price hikes in check, while younger consumers favour government action
- Graph 10: attitudes toward the impact of government intervention and market competition on grocery prices (any agree), by generation, 2025
- Financial wellbeing shapes preferred responses to rising food prices
- Graph 11: attitudes toward the impact of government intervention and market competition on grocery prices (any agree), by financial situation, 2025
- Beyond trade: perceived reasons for higher food prices
- Response to rising food prices
- Most follow a food budget, but many also have a degree of flexibility
- Graph 12: approach to budgeting when grocery shopping, 2025
- Supermarkets must connect with budget-conscious shoppers
- Graph 13: where individuals get groceries, by approach to budgeting when grocery shopping, 2025
- Fresh offerings are where consumers claim to feel higher prices most
- Graph 14: categories perceived to have risen the most in price compared to a year ago (select up to three), 2025
- Older generations are most likely to perceive a rise in fresh food prices
- Graph 15: categories perceived to have risen the most in price compared to a year ago (select up to three), by generation, 2025
- Shoppers are more likely to choose ways to save that don’t substantially alter existing habits
- Graph 16: actions taken to save money on food and drink, 2025
- Those with less financial security are more willing to make changes to save
- Graph 17: actions taken to save money on food and drink, by financial situation, 2025
- Top takeaways: actions taken to save
- Response to rising food prices by category
- Targeted category-specific measures can help consumers save
- Graph 18: which categories consumers most willing sacrifice quality on for savings (select three), 2025,
- Sacrificing quality in fresh foods can be harmful for a grocer’s reputation
- Have shoppers become more dependent on dry grocery?
- Graph 19: which categories consumers most willing sacrifice quality on for savings (select three), 2022 and 2025
- Areas where younger generations are less likely to compromise on the quality demonstrates a level of nuance in eating habits
- Graph 20: which categories consumers most willing sacrifice quality on for savings (select three), by generation, 2025
- Patriotism influences spending preferences
- Graph 21: attributes willing to pay more for when grocery shopping, 2025
- Top takeaways: willingness to pay more for when grocery shopping
- Influence of trade tensions
- Trade tensions top-of-mind for Canadian food and drink shoppers
- Graph 22: views on trade tensions’ impact, 2025
- Passion for Canadian foods and drinks is tempering
- Graph 23: “Trade tensions with the US make me more likely to purchase food and drink products made in Canada”, February 2025 and October 2025
- Boomers are more cognizant of US trade tensions when choosing their groceries
- Graph 24: views on trade tensions’ impact (any agree), by generation, 2025
- Financial security offers flexibility in avoiding US products
- Graph 25: views on trade tensions’ impact (any agree), by financial situation, 2025
- “Maple-washing” adds an element of mistrust
- What makes a product Canadian?
- Top takeaways: trade tensions’ impact on grocery shopping
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PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING
- Leveraging tech for transparency
- Modern couponing’s evolution
- Food rescue apps: an added tool to help consumers save
- The evolution of loyalty programs
- Inflation report: own the message transparently
- Operational efficiencies and leveraging tech in an environmental way
- Launch activity and innovation
- A consistent design language can visually communicate value
- One look to stand out across the store
- On-package coupons highlight savings
- Companies embrace “Made-in-Canada” appeal through design and flavour
- Concept: Just Enough Meal Kits
- Concept: Mini-Saver Snack Packs
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APPENDIX
- Report scope
- The consumer
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology – Canada
- Generations
- Other data source methodologies
- Mintel Spark
- Abbreviations
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