2024
8
Canada Grocery Retailing Market Report 2024
2024-10-21T13:02:56+01:00
REP78135684_E295_4EB1_9025_218E164B3E12
4400
176845
[{"name":"Food and Drink Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail\/food-drink"}]
Report
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More than a third of grocery shoppers buy at least some of their groceries online. While it's still the minority, it's been steadily climbing – it was just 25% in…
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  8. Canada Grocery Retailing Market Report 2024

Canada Grocery Retailing Market Report 2024

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More than a third of grocery shoppers buy at least some of their groceries online. While it’s still the minority, it’s been steadily climbing – it was just 25% in 2022. The number of different online grocery use cases has helped it grow; it’s not just about replacing full grocery trips, but also smaller orders to delay a trip to the store, find a cheaper option or get products that are hard to find in stores. Its current momentum should continue and eventually make online grocery a tool that most shoppers use.

That evolution comes at a time when the grocery market is relatively flat. Sales have slowed – in part due to lower inflation, as well as the base effect comparing to the growth in 2023 – while competition continues to increase. Additionally, consumers’ budgets remain tight and they’re scrutinizing their expenditures in an economy that is steady, but vulnerable.

Those challenges present an opportunity for the retailers that effectively position themselves. Since value is a relative concept, grocers can create comparisons that make them the budget-friendly choice by contrast. Specifically, the foodservice industry’s struggles open the door for HMR to steal those occasions since grocery stores’ freshly prepared meals can offer highly competitive value compared to restaurants.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • An overview of the current grocery market and the Canadian economy
  • Where people buy groceries in person, as well as online shopping trends and occasions
  • Consumers’ value perceptions of different retailers and product categories
  • Home meal replacement as an opportunity for grocery stores to demonstrate value
  • How competitors are getting creative in an effort to add value to grocery shopping experiences

In such a highly competitive market where shopper budgets remain tight, retailers need to frame themselves in a way that creates positive perceptions of value.

Scott Stewart, Associate Director, Lifestyles & Retail

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  1. Executive summary

    • What you need to know
    • What consumers want and why
    • Market predictions
    • Opportunities
  2. The Market

    • Market size
    • Grocery retail is a hundred billion dollar industry
    • Grocery store sales have flattened after a strong 2023
    • Graph 1: monthly retail trade sales – supermarkets and other grocery retailers (excl. convenience stores, $bn), 2022-24
    • Market drivers
    • Food costs have steadily increased
    • Graph 2: Consumer Price Index, 2021-24
    • Grocery categories have followed different inflationary paths
    • Graph 3: Consumer Price Index – food purchased from stores, 2021-24
    • All meat categories increased in price, while seafood was more steady
    • Graph 4: Consumer Price Index – food purchased from stores – meats and fish/seafood, 2021-24
    • What this means
    • Market context
    • Unemployment is steadily rising
    • Graph 5: unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted), 2023-24
    • Wage increases are helping workers catch up to inflation
    • Graph 6: average hourly wages, by age, 2023-24
    • Employment trends are another example of Canada’s mixed bag
    • GDP is positive, but consumer expenditures are struggling
    • Graph 7: quarterly change in real GDP, 2022-24
    • Graph 8: quarterly change in real household final consumption expenditure per capita, 2022-24
    • Economists expect the trend to continue
    • Interest rates are dipping, but remain high
    • Graph 9: monthly interest rate (bank rate), 2015-24
    • In this economy, there’s always a “but…”
  3. Consumer Insights

    • Consumer fast facts
    • Consumer fast facts (continued)
    • Where grocery shoppers shop in-person
    • Traditional grocers still lead, but it’s a competitive industry
    • Graph 10: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, 2024
    • Different store types attract different shoppers
    • Graph 11: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, by household income, 2024
    • Age also impacts where groceries are purchased
    • Graph 12: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, by generation, 2024
    • Quebec’s competitive landscape is a bit different
    • Graph 13: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, overall vs Quebec, 2024
    • Newer Canadians are more likely to shop at mass merchandisers than traditional grocery stores
    • Graph 14: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, newer vs established Canadians, 2024
    • What this means: in a competitive market, retailers aren’t necessarily battling for the same shopper
    • Smaller grocery retailers can erode basket sizes at larger stores
    • Graph 15: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, by household income, 2024
    • Convenience and dollar stores have unique value for parents
    • Graph 16: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months, overall vs parents by age of children, 2024
    • They may only sell an item or two, but still have an impact
    • International grocery stores play an important role for certain consumer groups
    • Graph 17: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months – international-focused grocery stores, by time in Canada, race and language spoken at home, 2024
    • International stores are regional (for now)
    • Graph 18: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months – international-focused grocery stores, by region, 2024
    • These stores can steal traffic from larger stores
    • International stores are gaining relevance with younger shoppers
    • Graph 19: where groceries were purchased in-person in the past three months – international-focused grocery stores, established Canadians by generation, 2024
    • The grocery industry is highly competitive
    • Perceptions of value across grocery retailers
    • Consumers believe grocers are the cause of higher prices
    • Graph 20: most responsible for the rise in food prices (select up to three), 2024
    • Walmart is seen as a store with the best everyday grocery prices
    • Graph 21: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – everyday prices, 2024
    • Walmart makes everyday prices a key marketing message
    • No Frills has established perceptions of good everyday prices
    • Perceptions are driven by personal experience
    • Graph 22: retailers associated with aspects of grocery shopping – everyday prices, Ontario vs British Columbia, 2024
    • Costco is head and shoulders above the rest on bulk
    • Graph 23: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – bulk value, 2024
    • Bulk value is a core pillar of Costco’s stores
    • Private label perceptions are more competitive
    • Graph 24: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – value of the store’s own-brand products, 2024
    • Real Canadian Superstore has good own brand value in Western Canada
    • The loyalty landscape varies regionally, but PC Optimum is strong in Ontario
    • Graph 25: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – loyalty programs, Quebec, 2024
    • Graph 26: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – loyalty program, Ontario, 2024
    • PC Optimum’s success in the West is driven by RCSS
    • Graph 27: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – loyalty program, British Columbia, 2024
    • Graph 28: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – loyalty programs, Prairies Provinces, 2024
    • Sobeys is a loyalty leader in Atlantic Canada
    • Graph 29: retailers associated with aspects of the grocery shopping – loyalty programs, Atlantic Provinces, 2024
    • Grocery is a regional industry with two big national players
    • Perceptions of value across grocery categories
    • Value perceptions change throughout a grocery store
    • Graph 30: perceptions of value, by category, 2024
    • A common theme: dry goods and frozen foods are easy to store
    • Larger sizes give shoppers the chance to find value
    • Fresh produce value perceptions are mixed
    • Graph 31: perceptions of value by category – fresh produce, 2024
    • Fresh produce seasonality makes value perceptions ebb and flow
    • Fresh meat and snacks are under the microscope
    • Graph 32: perceptions of value by category, 2024
    • Meat price increases have not been an outlier…
    • Graph 33: Consumer Price Index, 2021-24
    • …but perception is everything
    • Graph 34: categories that have risen the most in price, 2024
    • Snack prices climbed in 2022
    • Graph 35: Consumer Price Index – potato chips and other snack products, 2021-24
    • Consumers will shop strategically before sacrificing quality
    • Graph 36: actions taken to save on groceries, 2024
    • Using discounts to ‘treat’ shoppers in these categories
    • Online grocery shopping trends
    • Online grocery shopping is becoming more common
    • Graph 37: where groceries have been purchased in the past month, 2021-24
    • Online grocery shopping skews to younger consumers
    • Graph 38: have bought groceries online in the past month, by generation, student/employment status and parental status, 2024
    • Newer Canadians and urban dwellers buy groceries online
    • Graph 39: have bought groceries online in the past month, by living location and time in Canada, 2024
    • A targeted approach to online shopping
    • Online shopping occasions
    • There’s not one singular online grocery shopping trip experience
    • Graph 40: approach to online grocery shopping – “I use online shopping to…”, 2024
    • Lighter online shoppers are using it for better prices and selection
    • Graph 41: approach to online grocery shopping – “I use online shopping to…”, by online grocery usage, 2024
    • Digital purchase behaviours are evolving
    • There are many reasons why smartphone shopping is uniquely valuable
    • Online grocery is just one tool in the shopping toolbox
    • Parents try to delay trips to the store
    • Graph 42: “I use online shopping to…” buy a few items I need to save myself a trip to the store, by gender and parental status, 2024
    • Most shoppers want to go into stores
    • A third of online shoppers buy a few items online because they’re cheaper
    • How to create more online shoppers: broader selection
    • Graph 43: “I would use online shopping to…”, 2024
    • How retailers can connect with “buy items I cannot find in stores” consumers
    • Make online solutions that cater to more kinds of needs
    • HMR frequency, purchases and barriers
    • Half of consumers buy HMR multiple times per month
    • Graph 44: HMR purchase frequency, 2024
    • The restaurant industry is struggling – which is an opportunity for HMR
    • Graph 45: foodservice sales (seasonally adjusted, $bn), 2022-24
    • Most consumers are unhappy with restaurant expenses
    • Graph 46: attitudes toward restaurants, 2024
    • Restaurants are already responding to these attitudes
    • Shoppers feel that restaurant prices are outpacing most grocery categories
    • Graph 47: categories that have risen the most in price, 2024
    • HMR is focused on a few key food categories…
    • Graph 48: types of freshly prepared/made-to-order foods typically bought at grocery stores, 2024
    • …but it may be time to diversify
    • Graph 49: types of freshly prepared/made-to-order foods typically bought at grocery stores, by generation, 2024
    • Rotisserie chicken is popular among infrequent HMR users
    • Graph 50: types of freshly prepared/made-to-order foods typically bought at grocery stores, by HMR frequency, 2024
    • Newer Canadians aren’t buying rotisserie chicken
    • Graph 51: types of freshly prepared/made-to-order foods typically bought at grocery stores, by time in Canada, 2024
    • HMR doesn’t have to be a full meal – which means better value perceptions
    • Cost is a leading barrier – and so is lack of consideration
    • Graph 52: reasons for not buying HMR at grocery stores, 2024
    • HMR can be a loss leader
    • Older retirees are the least likely to use HMR
    • Graph 53: HMR purchase frequency – never, by generation, time in Canada and student/employment status, 2024
    • The real opportunity is to steal occasions from restaurants
    • Graph 54: frequency of dinner meals from restaurants in an average week, by generation, 2024
    • Graph 55: dine in/take out from restaurants for dinner, by generation, 2024
    • Cost is a major pain point for restaurant diners
    • Graph 56: things that would encourage consumers to order from restaurants more, 2024
    • Graph 57: things that discourage consumers from ordering from restaurants more, 2024
    • Make the comparison of HMR and restaurants clear for consumers
    • Younger consumers use food delivery services
    • Convenience stores are already marketing this capability
    • Value is a matter of perception – so put grocery stores in a positive light
  4. Competitive Strategies

    • Launch activity and innovation
    • Loblaw is piloting No Name stores
    • Kroger uses seasonality to provide value
    • A new value brand from Target starts at $1
    • Third-party services are helping shoppers find deals on expiring groceries
    • Food waste apps are a win-win solution that uncovers value
    • Amazon’s overnight delivery has shoppers waking up to groceries at their door
    • Meal kit services let subscribers add groceries to their orders
    • Marketing and advertising
    • Instacart launches shoppable display ads
    • Walmart makes grocery an advertising priority
    • Opportunities
    • Creativity is a necessity in a market as competitive as this one
    • In summary: key implications and recommendations
  5. Appendix

    • Consumer research methodology
    • Consumer research questions
    • Consumer research questions: crosstabs and curated questions
    • Consumer qualitative research
    • Generations
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Market share/brand share
    • Canada’s leading grocers experience same-store gains

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