Canada’s grocery retail landscape is fiercely competitive and constantly evolving. While factors like location and competitive pricing play a key role in attracting traffic, they are not the sole considerations for today’s shoppers. Experience has emerged as a critical differentiator, with Home Meal Replacements (HMR), such as made-to-order meals and in-store dining, serving as a draw. In fact, three in five HMR consumers say they would specifically visit a grocery store for prepared or made-to-order meals, highlighting its growing importance.
Beyond the grocery sector, made-to-order meals are becoming a tool for retailers looking to attract customers in an increasingly omnichannel shopping environment, where online options are more accessible. This is where creating compelling in-store dining experiences can give retailers an edge in a crowded marketplace.
Additionally, younger adults and newer Canadians are emerging as key demographics driving demand for HMR. Having grown up in an era where quick-service and full-service restaurants are deeply ingrained in their lifestyles, younger generations tend to rely more heavily on convenient, prepared meal options. Offering innovative solutions in this space presents a substantial opportunity for retailers to attract and retain these consumers.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Trends in Home Meal Replacement (HMR) usage and frequency of consumption
- Meal occasions when HMR is most commonly used
- Key drivers behind HMR purchases and their associations with different meal types
- Foods typically chosen within the HMR category
- The role of HMR as a traffic driver, including the importance of online ordering, and perceptions of the on-premise experience
- Variations in HMR-related behaviours and attitudes by generation, parental status, living locations, and between newer and existing Canadians
- Insights on innovation and marketing strategies within the HMR space
Consumers’ demand for convenience has made HMR essential for grocers. A matured market highlights the importance of consumer-focused strategies for growth.
Joel Gregoire, Associate Director of Food & Drink Reports
Market Definitions
Mintel defines HMR as dishes or foods prepared/made-to-order by an employee, from stores where groceries are bought. Packaged items such as frozen pizza are not included in the definition.
The terms Home Meal Replacement (HMR) and prepared/made-to-order foods are used interchangeably throughout this Report.
‘Grocerants’ refers to dine-in or sit-down concepts that are part of a grocery store. ‘Grocerants’ can offer a full-service, restaurant-like ambiance with a comfortable dining room and/or wait staff.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market predictions
- Opportunities
- What consumers want & why
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THE MARKET
- Market context
- Grocers are investing in budget friendly store formats
- Ready-meal sections help grocery stores tier value propositions
- Market drivers
- The rise in food prices outpaces CPI
- Graph 1: annual change in CPI and retail food prices by month, 2019-24
- Canadians continue to use foodservice
- Graph 2: monthly food services and drinking places sales, 2019-24
- Economic uncertainty in 2025
- Sentiment towards cutting back on dining out is trending in a positive direction
- Graph 3: cut back on dining out/other leisure activities over the past two months, 2024
- Graph 4: actions taken over the past 2 months, November 14-December 3, 2024
- Younger Canadians live in two worlds: the physical and the digital
- International foods have become a staple of Canadians’ diets
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Prepared/made-to-order foods purchase behaviour
- Takeaways
- Most Canadians purchase made-to-order meals
- More Canadians report turning to made-to-order meals
- Graph 5: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
- Pandemic-fuelled volatility eases as reported HMR trends stabilize
- Graph 6: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often, 2022 vs 2024
- Consumers are turning to made-to-order meals less often
- Graph 7: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, 2022 vs 2024
- Dinner remains the most important meal for HMR, but other occasions are ascendant
- Graph 8: main meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
- Weekday dinners show the sharpest shift downward in usage
- Graph 9: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
- Different factors may contribute to shifts in when consumers use HMR
- Purchase drivers of prepared/made-to-order foods
- Value-positioning can be a catalyst for growth
- Graph 10: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, 2024
- What holds less impact as usage drivers?
- Perceived financial wellbeing impacts perceptions of value
- Graph 11: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by financial situation, 2024
- Associations by meal type
- Made-to-order meals and value go hand-in-hand
- Prepared/made-to-order meals compete on ease with room to improve on other fronts
- Graph 12: attributes associated with different types of meals, 2024
- Capitalizing on attribute differences between meals
- Lend a hand in making dinner decisions
- Graph 13: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and meal planning, 2024
- Two-in-five consumers decide what to make for dinner on the day of
- Graph 14: when consumers typically plan what to make for dinner, 2023
- Prepared/made-to-order foods as a traffic driver
- Made-to-order meals are a way to draw traffic
- Graph 15: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver, 2024
- Having a robust HMR section helps attract parents
- Graph 16: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver (any agree), by parental status, 2024
- Parents appreciate support when it comes to mealtime
- Graph 17: tasks parents want more help with, 2024
- Prepared/made-to-order foods and online ordering
- Online purchase pathways help bolster made-to-order meal sales
- Graph 18: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering, 2024
- Over a third of Canadians shop for groceries online
- Graph 19: how consumers have shopped for groceries in the past month, 2024
- Reasons to invest in online ordering
- Prepared/made-to-order foods and the on-premise experience
- Craft a genuine in-store market experience
- Graph 20: attitudes toward on-premise experiences, 2024
- Specialized sections within HMR departments offer diverse and enriching experiences
- Offer spaces to sit, eat and connect
- Non-grocery retailers can enter the “grocerant” market
- Grocers can make the most of the space they have with creativity
- Prepared/made-to-order foods typically purchased
- Chicken and pizza remain HMR favourites
- Graph 21: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, 2024
- How menus matter
- Different dayparts lead to the opportunity to broaden menu offerings
- Menu items lower on the list are more likely to attract the most avid HMR customers
- Graph 22: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, by purchase frequency, 2024
- Generational differences and prepared/made-to-order foods
- There’s overlap between different demographic groups
- Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and generations
- Younger generations are more likely to turn to HMR
- Graph 23: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by generation, 2024
- Younger generations are critical to growth
- Graph 24: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by generation, 2024
- Focus on Millennials and Gen Zs to grow visit frequency
- Graph 25: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by generation, 2024
- Expand from dinner to attract younger generations
- Graph 26: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, by generation, 2024
- Connect with Millennials with compelling onsite experiences
- Graph 27: attitudes toward in-store ordering and on-premise experiences (any agree), by generation, 2024
- Embrace digital to meet the needs of younger generations
- Graph 28: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), by generation, 2024
- Price’s influence drops among younger generations
- Graph 29: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by generation, 2024
- Newer Canadians and prepared/made-to-order foods
- Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and newer Canadians
- Newer Canadians represent a clear opportunity for made-to-order meals
- Graph 30: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Connect with newer Canadians to support growth and frequency
- Graph 31: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Graph 32: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Expand beyond dinner to address newer Canadians’ demands
- Graph 33: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Satiating snacks offer convenience and value for newer Canadians
- Graph 34: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Innovate beyond chicken to win with newer Canadians
- Graph 35: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Made-to-order meals are a way to drive traffic among newer Canadians
- Graph 36: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order foods being a traffic driver (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Online ordering provides an edge with newer Canadians
- Graph 37: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- On-premise experiences bolster relevance with newer Canadians
- Graph 38: attitudes toward on-premise experiences (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
- Parents and prepared/made-to-order foods
- Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and parents
- Parents – and particularly dads – are more likely to turn to HMR
- Graph 39: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by parental status, 2024
- Prioritize parents, as they are among the most frequent and consistent users of HMR
- Graph 40: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by parental status, 2024
- Graph 41: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by parental status, 2024
- Parents look to HMR for meal solutions during the day
- Graph 42: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, by parental status, 2024
- HMR’s appeal extends beyond chicken for parents
- Graph 43: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, by parental status, 2024
- A broader range of factors drives HMR adoption among parents
- Graph 44: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by parental status, 2024
- Simplify parents’ lives with digital ordering
- Graph 45: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), by parental status, 2024
- On-premise dining options offer greater flexibility for parents
- Graph 46: attitudes toward on-premise experiences (any agree), by parental status, 2024
- Living area and prepared/made-to-order foods
- Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and living areas
- HMR is more commonly used by city residents
- Graph 47: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by living area, 2024
- Urban locations are central in supporting HMR’s growth
- Graph 48: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by living area, 2024
- Graph 49: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by living area, 2024
- City-based HMR programs are more likely to be regarded as traffic drivers
- Graph 50: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver and online ordering (any agree), by living area, 2024
- Urban areas provide a particular opportunity for non-grocery retailers to offer made-to-order meals
- Graph 51: “I’m open to getting prepared/made-to-order meals from retailers other than grocers” (any agree), 2024
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COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
- Launch activity and innovation
- Apps are essential to court Gen Zs and Millennials and compete with foodservice
- HMR can be a gateway to foodie-centric shopping experiences
- Signature items can elevate HMR programs
- HMR can leverage celebrities and chefs to promote their HMR offerings. It can also partner with other brands through pop-ups
- Does tiering have a place in HMR?
- Marketing and advertising
- Help Canadians celebrate a wide range of holidays with made-to-order meals
- Graph 52: holidays typically celebrated, 2021
- How made-to-order offerings can enhance the holiday experience
- Contrast with fast-food
- HMR can be a gateway to foods and ingredients sold throughout the store
- Is HMR equipped to accommodate ghost kitchens?
- Promote ‘tastes of home’ throughout the day to connect with newer Canadians
- Opportunities
- HMR programs can support profitability
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research methodology
- Correspondence analysis
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
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