2025
8
Canada Home Meal Replacement/Grocerants Market Report 2025
2025-01-31T12:03:31+00:00
REP73AE80E8_D4B8_44CA_BD95_8D0F11035B2E
3695
179235
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Report
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Canada's grocery retail landscape is fiercely competitive and constantly evolving. While factors like location and competitive pricing play a key role in attracting traffic, they are not the sole considerations…
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  8. Canada Home Meal Replacement/Grocerants Market Report 2025

Canada Home Meal Replacement/Grocerants Market Report 2025

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Canada’s grocery retail landscape is fiercely competitive and constantly evolving. While factors like location and competitive pricing play a key role in attracting traffic, they are not the sole considerations for today’s shoppers. Experience has emerged as a critical differentiator, with Home Meal Replacements (HMR), such as made-to-order meals and in-store dining, serving as a draw. In fact, three in five HMR consumers say they would specifically visit a grocery store for prepared or made-to-order meals, highlighting its growing importance.

Beyond the grocery sector, made-to-order meals are becoming a tool for retailers looking to attract customers in an increasingly omnichannel shopping environment, where online options are more accessible. This is where creating compelling in-store dining experiences can give retailers an edge in a crowded marketplace.

Additionally, younger adults and newer Canadians are emerging as key demographics driving demand for HMR. Having grown up in an era where quick-service and full-service restaurants are deeply ingrained in their lifestyles, younger generations tend to rely more heavily on convenient, prepared meal options. Offering innovative solutions in this space presents a substantial opportunity for retailers to attract and retain these consumers.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Trends in Home Meal Replacement (HMR) usage and frequency of consumption
  • Meal occasions when HMR is most commonly used
  • Key drivers behind HMR purchases and their associations with different meal types
  • Foods typically chosen within the HMR category
  • The role of HMR as a traffic driver, including the importance of online ordering, and perceptions of the on-premise experience
  • Variations in HMR-related behaviours and attitudes by generation, parental status, living locations, and between newer and existing Canadians
  • Insights on innovation and marketing strategies within the HMR space

Consumers’ demand for convenience has made HMR essential for grocers. A matured market highlights the importance of consumer-focused strategies for growth.

Joel Gregoire, Associate Director of Food & Drink Reports

Market Definitions

Mintel defines HMR as dishes or foods prepared/made-to-order by an employee, from stores where groceries are bought. Packaged items such as frozen pizza are not included in the definition.

The terms Home Meal Replacement (HMR) and prepared/made-to-order foods are used interchangeably throughout this Report.

‘Grocerants’ refers to dine-in or sit-down concepts that are part of a grocery store. ‘Grocerants’ can offer a full-service, restaurant-like ambiance with a comfortable dining room and/or wait staff.

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  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • What you need to know
    • Market predictions
    • Opportunities
    • What consumers want & why
  2. THE MARKET

    • Market context
    • Grocers are investing in budget friendly store formats
    • Ready-meal sections help grocery stores tier value propositions
    • Market drivers
    • The rise in food prices outpaces CPI
    • Graph 1: annual change in CPI and retail food prices by month, 2019-24
    • Canadians continue to use foodservice
    • Graph 2: monthly food services and drinking places sales, 2019-24
    • Economic uncertainty in 2025
    • Sentiment towards cutting back on dining out is trending in a positive direction
    • Graph 3: cut back on dining out/other leisure activities over the past two months, 2024
    • Graph 4: actions taken over the past 2 months, November 14-December 3, 2024
    • Younger Canadians live in two worlds: the physical and the digital
    • International foods have become a staple of Canadians’ diets
  3. CONSUMER INSIGHTS

    • Consumer fast facts
    • Prepared/made-to-order foods purchase behaviour
    • Takeaways
    • Most Canadians purchase made-to-order meals
    • More Canadians report turning to made-to-order meals
    • Graph 5: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
    • Pandemic-fuelled volatility eases as reported HMR trends stabilize
    • Graph 6: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often, 2022 vs 2024
    • Consumers are turning to made-to-order meals less often
    • Graph 7: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, 2022 vs 2024
    • Dinner remains the most important meal for HMR, but other occasions are ascendant
    • Graph 8: main meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
    • Weekday dinners show the sharpest shift downward in usage
    • Graph 9: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, 2022 vs 2024
    • Different factors may contribute to shifts in when consumers use HMR
    • Purchase drivers of prepared/made-to-order foods
    • Value-positioning can be a catalyst for growth
    • Graph 10: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, 2024
    • What holds less impact as usage drivers?
    • Perceived financial wellbeing impacts perceptions of value
    • Graph 11: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by financial situation, 2024
    • Associations by meal type
    • Made-to-order meals and value go hand-in-hand
    • Prepared/made-to-order meals compete on ease with room to improve on other fronts
    • Graph 12: attributes associated with different types of meals, 2024
    • Capitalizing on attribute differences between meals
    • Lend a hand in making dinner decisions
    • Graph 13: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and meal planning, 2024
    • Two-in-five consumers decide what to make for dinner on the day of
    • Graph 14: when consumers typically plan what to make for dinner, 2023
    • Prepared/made-to-order foods as a traffic driver
    • Made-to-order meals are a way to draw traffic
    • Graph 15: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver, 2024
    • Having a robust HMR section helps attract parents
    • Graph 16: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver (any agree), by parental status, 2024
    • Parents appreciate support when it comes to mealtime
    • Graph 17: tasks parents want more help with, 2024
    • Prepared/made-to-order foods and online ordering
    • Online purchase pathways help bolster made-to-order meal sales
    • Graph 18: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering, 2024
    • Over a third of Canadians shop for groceries online
    • Graph 19: how consumers have shopped for groceries in the past month, 2024
    • Reasons to invest in online ordering
    • Prepared/made-to-order foods and the on-premise experience
    • Craft a genuine in-store market experience
    • Graph 20: attitudes toward on-premise experiences, 2024
    • Specialized sections within HMR departments offer diverse and enriching experiences
    • Offer spaces to sit, eat and connect
    • Non-grocery retailers can enter the “grocerant” market
    • Grocers can make the most of the space they have with creativity
    • Prepared/made-to-order foods typically purchased
    • Chicken and pizza remain HMR favourites
    • Graph 21: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, 2024
    • How menus matter
    • Different dayparts lead to the opportunity to broaden menu offerings
    • Menu items lower on the list are more likely to attract the most avid HMR customers
    • Graph 22: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, by purchase frequency, 2024
    • Generational differences and prepared/made-to-order foods
    • There’s overlap between different demographic groups
    • Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and generations
    • Younger generations are more likely to turn to HMR
    • Graph 23: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by generation, 2024
    • Younger generations are critical to growth
    • Graph 24: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by generation, 2024
    • Focus on Millennials and Gen Zs to grow visit frequency
    • Graph 25: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by generation, 2024
    • Expand from dinner to attract younger generations
    • Graph 26: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, by generation, 2024
    • Connect with Millennials with compelling onsite experiences
    • Graph 27: attitudes toward in-store ordering and on-premise experiences (any agree), by generation, 2024
    • Embrace digital to meet the needs of younger generations
    • Graph 28: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), by generation, 2024
    • Price’s influence drops among younger generations
    • Graph 29: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by generation, 2024
    • Newer Canadians and prepared/made-to-order foods
    • Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and newer Canadians
    • Newer Canadians represent a clear opportunity for made-to-order meals
    • Graph 30: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Connect with newer Canadians to support growth and frequency
    • Graph 31: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Graph 32: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Expand beyond dinner to address newer Canadians’ demands
    • Graph 33: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Satiating snacks offer convenience and value for newer Canadians
    • Graph 34: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Innovate beyond chicken to win with newer Canadians
    • Graph 35: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Made-to-order meals are a way to drive traffic among newer Canadians
    • Graph 36: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order foods being a traffic driver (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Online ordering provides an edge with newer Canadians
    • Graph 37: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • On-premise experiences bolster relevance with newer Canadians
    • Graph 38: attitudes toward on-premise experiences (any agree), newer vs existing Canadians, 2024
    • Parents and prepared/made-to-order foods
    • Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and parents
    • Parents – and particularly dads – are more likely to turn to HMR
    • Graph 39: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by parental status, 2024
    • Prioritize parents, as they are among the most frequent and consistent users of HMR
    • Graph 40: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by parental status, 2024
    • Graph 41: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by parental status, 2024
    • Parents look to HMR for meal solutions during the day
    • Graph 42: meal occasions in which prepared/made-to-order foods were purchased in the past three months, by parental status, 2024
    • HMR’s appeal extends beyond chicken for parents
    • Graph 43: prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores typically purchased, by parental status, 2024
    • A broader range of factors drives HMR adoption among parents
    • Graph 44: what would encourage consumers to purchase prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more often, by parental status, 2024
    • Simplify parents’ lives with digital ordering
    • Graph 45: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals and online ordering (any agree), by parental status, 2024
    • On-premise dining options offer greater flexibility for parents
    • Graph 46: attitudes toward on-premise experiences (any agree), by parental status, 2024
    • Living area and prepared/made-to-order foods
    • Top takeaways on prepared/made-to-order foods and living areas
    • HMR is more commonly used by city residents
    • Graph 47: purchased prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores in the past three months, by living area, 2024
    • Urban locations are central in supporting HMR’s growth
    • Graph 48: how often prepared/made-to-order foods are purchased from grocery stores, by living area, 2024
    • Graph 49: purchasing prepared/made-to-order foods from grocery stores more, the same, or less often vs last year, by living area, 2024
    • City-based HMR programs are more likely to be regarded as traffic drivers
    • Graph 50: attitudes toward prepared/made-to-order meals being a traffic driver and online ordering (any agree), by living area, 2024
    • Urban areas provide a particular opportunity for non-grocery retailers to offer made-to-order meals
    • Graph 51: “I’m open to getting prepared/made-to-order meals from retailers other than grocers” (any agree), 2024
  4. COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES

    • Launch activity and innovation
    • Apps are essential to court Gen Zs and Millennials and compete with foodservice
    • HMR can be a gateway to foodie-centric shopping experiences
    • Signature items can elevate HMR programs
    • HMR can leverage celebrities and chefs to promote their HMR offerings. It can also partner with other brands through pop-ups
    • Does tiering have a place in HMR?
    • Marketing and advertising
    • Help Canadians celebrate a wide range of holidays with made-to-order meals
    • Graph 52: holidays typically celebrated, 2021
    • How made-to-order offerings can enhance the holiday experience
    • Contrast with fast-food
    • HMR can be a gateway to foods and ingredients sold throughout the store
    • Is HMR equipped to accommodate ghost kitchens?
    • Promote ‘tastes of home’ throughout the day to connect with newer Canadians
    • Opportunities
    • HMR programs can support profitability
  5. APPENDIX

    • Market definition
    • Consumer research methodology
    • Correspondence analysis
    • Generations
    • Abbreviations and terms

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