In 2025, Canada’s sweet baked goods faces a handful of dominant market-shaping forces: climate-driven cocoa cost surges, tariff turmoil and regulatory barriers and ever-tightening nutrition and origin labelling requirements.
Despite these headwinds, sweet baked goods’ penetration remains universal – 95% of adults still eat sweet baked goods – but frequency is now the main battleground. Manufacturers are responding to cost pressures with shrinkflation (smaller pack sizes), recipe reformulation (sugar/fat reduction, alternative ingredients) and premium line extensions that balance premiumization and affordability.
Competition has further intensified as artisanal bakeries, upgraded private-label offerings and new global entrants like Sammontana’s La Rocca acquisition are fragmenting the landscape. This fragmentation is challenging incumbent brands but opening white space for innovation, particularly around health-forward snacks, local sourcing and bold limited-edition flavours. Artisanal and challenger brands are leveraging consumer interest in local, authentic and high-quality ingredients, while established players invest in automation and scalable reformulation to protect margin and maintain shelf presence amid macro and regulatory disruption.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Sweet baked goods consumption
- Motivations for consuming sweet baked goods
- Factors important when choosing sweet baked goods
- Barriers to consuming sweet baked goods
- Behaviours around and attitudes toward sweet baked goods
Sweet baked goods in Canada are a mix of beloved classics and innovative creations. Local flavours and multicultural influences reflect the nation's diversity. Convenience, quality and indulgence drive consumer choices, creating opportunities for brands to innovate and cater to evolving tastes.
Candace Baldassarre, Senior Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market predictions
- Opportunities
- What consumers want & why
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THE MARKET
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Costs of living steadily increase
- Graph 1: Consumer Price Index, 2021-25
- Rising cocoa costs are cause for concern
- Manufacturers are seeing red
- Tariffs are terrible for businesses
- Rising regulatory and legal scrutiny
- Quebec change language laws
- Most Canadians do bake
- Graph 2: baking habits, 2025
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Sweet baked goods consumption
- Canadians prefer their baked goods sweet
- Canada’s sweet tooth: muffins take the cake
- Graph 3: sweet baked goods consumption in past three months, 2025
- Age differences cannot be ignored
- Graph 4: sweet baked goods consumption in past three months (select), by age, 2025
- Let them (younger women) eat cake
- Marketing to moms just makes sense
- Graph 5: sweet baked goods consumption in past three months (select), overall vs moms vs dads, 2025
- Adapting to a Canadian diet takes time
- Graph 6: sweet baked goods consumption in past three months (select), by years living in Canada, 2025
- Strategies for appealing to newcomers
- Important consumption factors
- The majority of consumers are looking at labels
- Foreground reduced sugar and all-natural whenever possible
- Graph 7: factors important when choosing sweet baked goods, 2025
- Younger Canadians are more interested in high protein, fortified and organic options
- Graph 8: factors important when choosing sweet baked goods (select), by age, 2025
- Better-for-you factors are major selling features for South Asian consumers
- Graph 9: factors important when choosing sweet baked goods (select), South Asian consumers vs overall, 2025
- Motivations for consuming sweet baked goods
- Sweet baked goods satisfy emotional needs
- Graph 10: typical motivations for consuming sweet baked goods (select), 2025
- Celebrating the small wins with sweet baked goods
- Reminding consumers that sweet baked goods are for more than just indulgence
- Graph 11: typical motivations for consuming sweet baked goods (select), 2025
- Indigenous consumers are especially interested in sweet baked goods as functional foods
- Graph 12: typical motivations for consuming sweet baked goods (select), overall vs Indigenous consumers, 2025
- Breakfast is a bonafide opportunity to engage older consumers and middle-aged women…
- Graph 13: “I regularly consume sweet baked goods at breakfast” (% agree), by gender and age, 2025
- Marketing sweet baked goods at breakfast requires a nuanced approach
- Sweet treats help multicultural consumers catch their z’s
- Graph 14: is typically motivated to consume sweet baked goods to help them sleep, by race, 2025
- ‘Treat yourself’ marketing may not resonate with newcomers
- Barriers to sweet baked goods consumption
- Costs aren’t the largest deterrent for sweet baked goods
- Overcoming negative perceptions around health
- Sugar and carbs are enemies #1 and 2
- Convincing younger Canadians that baking is worth the effort
- Graph 15: would avoid eating sweet baked goods because “I am too lazy to bake,” by age, 2025
- Challenging newcomers’ and Chinese Canadians’ aversion to sweetness
- Sweet baked goods purchasing and preferences
- Sweet baked goods are already part of the majority of consumers’ grocery shopping routines
- Graph 16: sweet baked goods are part of my regular grocery shopping routine (% agree), by gender and age, 2025
- Convenience is king
- Consumers’ preferences are pronounced
- Canadians are loving local
- Brand loyalty is hard to break
- Quality counts and bakeries trump supermarkets for younger and middle-aged consumers
- Graph 17: attitudes toward sweet baked goods (% agree), by age, 2025
- Enhancing newer Canadians’ perceptions of supermarkets’ goods
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING
- Clean nutrition cookies
- Energy squares in fun, sweet baked flavours
- Mini cheesecakes with a ‘whole lotta personality’
- Sara Lee launches its Half Loaf line
- Stranger Things × Chips Ahoy
- Healthy…mug cakes?
- Oreo’s Willy Good Cake Shop pop-up
- Brand renovation/innovation: Bela Peko introduces baking mixes that support daily vegetable intake
- Timmies taps Biscoff
- Responding to viral crazes
- Pillsbury suggests ways to doctor its dough
- Easy as pie (or brownie) lasagna
- Adding protein ingredients to enable high-protein claims
- President’s Choice excites with mango lassi flavour
- Plant-based claims are highlighted across baking ingredients, mixes and sweeteners
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APPENDIX
- Consumer research methodology
- Consumer research questions
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
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