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- Definitions
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market overview and new product trends
- Consumer insights and opportunities
- What we think
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THE MARKET
- Market size and forecast
- Bakery market growth slows, but the pace of decline eases
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast* of value sales in bakery houses, 2020-30
- Market share
- Bakery outlet numbers decline as elevated churn persists
- Market factors
- Consumer confidence recovers slowly amid volatility, while expectations for the economic outlook remain cautious
- Graph 2: confidence* in an improving financial situation in the next three months, 2023-26
- Delivery platform price wars weaken the appeal of dining in, dragging down average spend per visit
- Graph 3: changes in spending – spent more than last month, 2023-25
- Raw materials: butter prices fell sharply in the second half of 2025
- Product-specific bakery festival breaks through category perception boundaries
- Intense channel competition drives supermarket bakeries to build a health narrative via simple, high‑quality ingredients
- Traditional bakery chains face mounting operational challenges
- Cross‑category expansion in bakery accelerates, with tea‑drink elements and flavour systems driving extension
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NEW PRODUCT TRENDS
- Natural sourdough cultures expand into a wider range of categories
- Cheese use evolves as flavour boundaries expand
- Contextualised interpretations of regional flavours
- Ciabatta innovation by coffee brands shifts from light-meal base to flavour centrepiece
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OVERVIEW OF CONSUMER TRENDS
- Consumer overview: freshly made bakery products
- Overview of in‑store bakery consumption
- In‑store bakery consumption is skewing younger
- Graph 4: consumption frequency of bakery foods, packaged vs freshly made, 2026
- Graph 5: consumption frequency of freshly made bakery foods, by age, 2026
- Bread sub-categories show a clear divergence between penetration and consumption frequency
- Graph 6: consumption frequency of freshly made bakery products, 2026
- Bakery choices are fragmenting among younger consumers, while classic desserts retain broader appeal
- Graph 7: share of medium- to high-frequency consumers, by category and age, 2026
- Ingredient improvement and regional flavour innovation
- Consumer interest in ingredient improvements and regional flavours
- Consumers take natural and safe ingredients as standard, but place less value on production processes
- High‑frequency consumers place greater emphasis on deeper, more authentic flavours
- Graph 8: improvements to core ingredients – first choice, by consumption frequency, 2026
- Provenance cues can outweigh brand credentials in shaping perceived value
- Graph 9: top five improvements to core ingredients – brands vs provenance, by consumption frequency, 2026
- Natural, clean ingredients underpin flavour, but regional tastes must balance quality with novelty
- Graph 10: improvements to flavour-enhancing ingredients, 2026
- Graph 11: innovation in regional flavour elements, 2026
- Seasonality drives trial among high‑frequency consumers, while transparency reassures infrequent buyers
- Graph 12: improvements to flavour-enhancing ingredients, by freshly made bakery products consumption frequency, 2026
- High-frequency consumers show broad interest in regional flavour innovation
- Graph 13: innovation in regional flavours, by freshly made bakery consumption frequency, 2026
- Graph 14: repertoire analysis* of regional flavour elements, by freshly made bakery products consumption frequency, 2026
- Preferences for staple filling pairings are clearly divided, with more versatility in soft breads and laminated pastries
- Purchase channels for bakery
- Overview of selected bakery purchase channels
- Penetration of chain bakeries and hypermarkets exceeds 50%, with singles favouring street drinks outlets and convenience stores
- Graph 15: purchase channels, 2026
- Graph 16: purchase channel, by marital status, 2026
- Membership supermarkets and fresh retail channels appeal more to Tier‑1 and higher‑income consumers
- Graph 17: select purchase channels, by monthly household income, 2026
- Graph 18: selected purchase channels, by city tier, 2026
- Immediate, everyday needs matter more to high‑frequency consumers
- Graph 19: purchase channel, by freshly made bakery products consumption frequency, 2026
- Chain and independent bakeries play complementary roles, while fresh retail has convenience as a core advantage
- Graph 20: perceptions of channels, 2026
- In lower‑tier cities, independent bakeries’ creative edge has yet to pull ahead of chains
- Graph 21: channel perceptions – independent (non-chain) bakeries, by freshly made bakery products consumption frequency, 2026
- Graph 22: channel perceptions – innovative, by city tier, 2026
- Freshness and sensory appeal drive footfall, with independents standing out on personalised experience
- Graph 23: store selection factors, 2026
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ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
- Classic desserts leverage natural starters to enhance flavour and texture, while richer storytelling elevates value perception
- Clean, natural ingredient demand is diverging across categories, with natural starters drawing greater interest in pies and tarts than in niche staple breads
- Dessert categories can use natural starters to add flavour complexity and enhance texture
- Beyond flavour, richer narratives around sourdough use enhance value perception
- Core flavour is key in niche staple breads, with premium flavour storytelling highlighting provenance
- In niche staple breads, prioritise intrinsic flavour
- Graph 24: filling combination preferences – medium- to high-frequency users, 2026
- Beyond imported or origin labels as quality cues, flavour differentiation needs to be clearer
- Graph 25: top five core ingredient improvements – well-known brands* (NET) and premium overseas/regional sources** (NET), by monthly household income, 2026
- Make origin-specific flavours tangible and invite discovery through sensory storytelling
- Use flavour profiling and deeper provenance to move beyond imported cues
- Graph 26: top five core ingredient improvements – well-known brands* (NET), 2026
- Sharpen premium messaging to emphasise the great taste of staple baked goods and the richness of their natural flavour
- Localise communication for new retail channels, with ciabatta and focaccia as regional flavour platforms
- Natural, delicious and healthy are baseline preferences, while linking provenance with seasonality helps create distinctive new options
- While new retail audiences are drawn to regional and novel flavours, creative storytelling remains underdeveloped
- Graph 27: improvement in flavour‑enhancing ingredients – regional specialities/novel niche ingredients, by purchase channel, 2026
- Graph 28: innovation in regional flavour elements – milk-skin, by purchase channel, 2026
- Independent bakeries take flavour risks rooted in local culture, rather than relying on seasonality
- Lower‑tier cities are keener to try regional flavours, while Tier 1 cities need a clearer context
- Graph 29: innovation in regional flavour elements, by city tier, 2026
- Graph 30: regional flavour element index*, by city tier, 2026
- Ciabatta and focaccia as experimental formats for regional flavours
- Graph 31: improvements to flavour-enhancing ingredients, by freshly made bakery product, 2026
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APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST, RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND ABBREVIATIONS
- Market size and forecast
- Methodology: consumer survey
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Methodology: repertoire analysis
- Abbreviations
Amid rising competitive pressures, the bakery sector is returning to ingredient fundamentals, using natural starters and fermentation to add value to sweet goods while elevating everyday staples through premium, ingredient‑led communication that highlights intrinsic flavour. Looking ahead, regional experimentation requires a clear flavour context to make local ingredients taste meaningfully delicious.
Jean Lu, Associate Research Analyst, China
Market Definitions
The term ‘bakery house’ in this Report refers to bakery chains, independent bakery houses (both online and physical) and bakery sections located in hypermarkets, supermarkets, tea shops and coffee houses. The bakery products covered in this Report include freshly made and short shelf-life bread, cakes, sandwiches and biscuits/cookies sold in bakery houses.
Excludes: packaged bakery products sold through retail channels and labelled with a barcode.
Group definitions: in this Report, Mintel defines high-frequency consumers as consumers who eat freshly made bakery products once a day or more; medium-frequency users as those who consume them 1-6 times a week; low-frequency users as those who consume them 2-3 times a month or once a month or less and non‑consumers as those who have not eaten freshly made bakery products in the last six months.
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