This Market Dynamics report features market data extracted from Mintel’s China Packaged Bakery Foods Market Report 2025. Giving you direct access to key market information and analysis from our category experts. This report is ideal for those looking for a topline summary of the China bakery market. The full China report is available to purchase here.
Collapse All
-
Market dynamics
- Market size and forecast
- Market expansion is slowing; brands explore new opportunities in a low-growth environment
- Packaged bakery foods are widely popular in everyday life
- Graph 1: frequency of packaged bakery food consumption (net), 2025
- Graph 2: frequency of packaged snack consumption, 2025
- Product innovation is increasingly vital for sustainable growth
- Graph 3: packaged bakery food launches, by type of launch, 2019-25
- Graph 4: proportion of packaged bakery foods among all food launches, 2019-25
- Market segments
- The biscuit market is nearing saturation; bread penetration exceeds 90%
- Graph 5: penetration of packaged bakery foods, 2025
- New product growth: mealtime bakery foods lead; pastries and bread continue to expand; biscuits decline under pressure
- Graph 6: packaged bakery food launches, by sub-category, 2019-25
- Market segment: bread
- Graph 7: retail sales in the packaged bread market, 2019-24
- Market segment: cakes and pastries
- Graph 8: retail sales in the packaged cakes/pastries market, 2019-24
- Market segment: biscuits
- Graph 9: retail sales in the packaged biscuit market, 2019-24
- Market factors
- A slight easing of food budgets brings premiumisation opportunities to the snack category
- Graph 10: stick to a set budget for food and groceries, 2024-25
- Graph 11: spending on snacks, 2025
- Freshly made products are in favour; growth in packaged bakery foods slows
- Graph 12: growth of retail sales in the bakery market, packaged bakery foods vs bakery houses, 2020-24
- Graph 13: trading up/down on bakery products, 2024
- Consumer attitudes skew conservative; new products must trade price for volume
- Graph 14: annual rate of change in prices of new packaged bakery foods, 2020-24
- Graph 15: sugar confectionery and pastry Consumer Price Index, 2020-23
- Sodium dehydroacetate sparks controversy; clean ingredient lists are key to trading up
- Graph 16: ‘sodium dehydroacetate + bakery’* media** mentions, 2024-25
- Finer and better bakery oils alleviate consumer health concerns
- Graph 17: average fat content in launches of packaged bakery foods, 2020-25
-
Competitive landscape
- Market share
- Market concentration has increased; retailers’ share is rapidly growing
- Retailers are now the mainstay of packaged bakery food innovation
- Mainstream brands lead on Tmall, while internet famous brands dominate on Douyin
- Company performance
- A tale of two companies: Toly slows, Dali grows again
- Comprehensive snack brands: Three Squirrels gets out of difficulty, while Bestore is still undergoing adjustment
- Private labels: a precise response to the demand for value for money and convenience
- Graph 18: private label share of packaged bakery food launches, 2019-25
- Purchase channels
- Preferred brands
-
Consumer demographics and behaviour
- Taste experience and better-for-you attributes are core purchase factors
- Taste comes first; social influence is limited
- Graph 19: snack purchase factors, by packaged bakery food consumption frequency, 2025
- Health and convenience drive frequent consumption; value for money attracts low frequency consumers
-
Categories and opportunities
- Frozen bakery food: dispel the myths around ‘freshly made’ baked goods to open up value-for-money and premium markets
- Frozen packaged bakery foods must dispel the myths surrounding ‘freshly made’ baked goods
- Graph 20: bakery food awareness, 2025
-
Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Consumer data: packaged bakery food premiumisation factors
- Graph 21: premiumisation factors for various categories of packaged bakery foods, 2025
- Consumer data: packaged bakery foods consumption occasions
- Graph 22: consumption occasions for various packaged bakery foods, 2025
About Mintel Market Dynamics
Mintel’s Market Dynamics reports are built from Mintel’s robust market size data. We pair these comprehensive market statistics with unparalleled market intelligence to offer deep insights into the dynamic landscapes of key markets across the world.
Created by our team of expert analysts, Market Dynamics connects the dots between market forecasts, consumer sentiment, and brand innovations to give you the full story of how your market is evolving and what your next move should be.
How can Market Dynamics help your brand?
- Gain immediate strategic clarity with quality market data and forecasts.
- Understand the ‘why’ behind industry trends with world-class human insight.
- Plot your next move with analysis of the competitive landscape and product launch activity.
- Uncover opportunities and unlock your growth potential with analyst recommendations.
£ 495 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or invoice (net 30 payment terms)
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF and Powerpoint version straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Translations available
Market Dynamics reports are available in ten different languages. Contact us for more information
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
When I’m investigating specific sectors I tend to use Mintel reports for their forecasting, which I’ve always found to be very accurate.
They also offer really broad and deep coverage in their reports. They are very, very detailed. For example, we were able to gain insight across a wide range of business areas from just one report, proving that Mintel is excellent value for money.
So overall, it’s the level of detail and the quality of forecasting that really stand out for me.
Rebecca Green, Market Insight Manager, Wincanton
We have such a great working relationship with Mintel on lots of different levels. As an insight partner, they have helped us to develop our business planning in specific categories as well as supporting our creative process but they’ve also been super helpful with facilitating our events in their inspirational offices near St Paul’s.
They’re an innovative company, with a client-focused team that always delivers.
Abby Carvosso, Group Managing Director, Bauer Media Group
We’ve found it so useful working more closely with Mintel. They helped support our recent flagship event for our top suppliers by providing a really unique viewpoint on the future of online retailing.
Nick Carroll from their Retail Team was also an excellent panelist, sharing useful and actionable consumer insights. We definitely look forward to working with Mintel again on future projects.
Zac Steele, E-Commerce Trading Development Manager, Waitrose & Partners
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.
Ngozi Ngonadi-Nkwoji, Senior Marketing Manager, Amazon
We use Mintel Reports, mostly for financial services and ecommerce markets, plus a few retail and technology ones.
As a leading payments provider, we value additional insights into consumer behaviour, opinions and trends that are shaping the many different markets we operate in. Mintel is a very good and very quick way for us to obtain those insights.
We use Mintel to get a view on where a particular market is going, which can support us in product development and help us identify opportunities or indeed risks, it is a very useful barometer of a market’s potential.
Andrew Neeson, Market Intelligence Manager, VocaLink
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
