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THE MARKET
- Market size and forecast
- Market growth narrows as packaged bakery enters a new competitive stage
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecasts of retail value sales in the packaged bakery foods market, 2020-30
- Market factors
- With consumer confidence rebounding, cakes and pastries have become the first choice for snack upgrades
- Graph 2: intention to spend on in-home foods in the next three months, 2025-26
- Graph 3: willingness to upgrade/downgrade spending on foods, 2025
- Butter import prices decline, while flour remains stable
- Graph 4: import price of butter (RMB/kg), January 2025-February 2026
- Frozen bakery accelerates expansion, lowering barriers to entry
- Discount snack stores emerge as a new growth engine as traditional channels contract
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer overview
- Penetration rate of packaged bakery products has peaked, making the competition for medium-frequency consumers the key to growth
- Graph 5: consumption frequency of bakery foods, by type of bakery food, 2026
- Graph 6: medium-frequency consumers of bakery foods, by gender, age, monthly household income and city tier, 2026
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APPENDIX
- Market size and forecast
- Consumer data: ambient bakery foods lead mainstream occasions, while frozen products dominate at main meals, late-night snacks and gatherings
- Graph 7: consumption occasions for various packaged bakery foods, 2026
- Consumer data: more opportunities for savoury bread; cakes/sweet pastries are more closely related to sweets, chocolate, florals and fruits
- Graph 8: flavour preferences for packaged bakery foods, 2026
- Consumer data: pastry consumption is primarily for everyday occasions, and both Chinese and Western flavours both have room for expansion
- Graph 9: attitudes towards packaged pastries, 2026
- Consumer data: taste comes first in bakery dishes; filling is prioritised over bread base
- Graph 10: factors when choosing baked items for meals, 2026
- Methodology: consumer survey
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Methodology: repertoire analysis
- Methodology: market forecast
- Abbreviations
This Market Dynamics report features market data extracted from Mintel’s China Packaged Bakery Foods Market Report 2026. Giving you direct access to key market information and analysis from our category experts. This report is ideal for those looking for a topline summary of the China bakery market. The full China report is available to purchase here.
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