Growth in the ice cream market is slowing, with penetration nearing saturation. Future expansion is expected to be slower. Frequent consumers are more likely to purchase packaged ice cream, while freshly made ice cream appeals more to those who consume ice cream less often.
Out-of-home consumption has overtaken in-home as the preferred occasion, presenting further commercial opportunities to explore. Consumers who eat ice cream after exercising or on dates are more open to trying new things, giving brands an opportunity to spark purchases through curiosity and social sharing in these scenarios.
Interest in floral flavours is bucking the overall trend, offering stronger growth potential powered by the association between fragrance and emotional comfort. Brands can incorporate more fragrance ingredients to develop ice cream products with restorative attributes.
Parents of young children pay close attention to milk sources, additive-free claims and visual design of ice cream products. Children’s ice cream needs to reflect parents’ expectations, with more products developed for parent-child sharing to meet family consumption needs.
Against a backdrop of more cautious consumption and intensifying category competition, ice cream brands must tap into segmented consumption occasions and enhance emotional value to retain frequent buyers, activate low-frequency demand, while strengthening focus on the children and family segment to achieve sustainable growth.
Evelyn Shen, Associate Research Analyst, China
Market Definitions
This Report explores the development of the ice cream retail market in China, purchase and consumption patterns and consumers interest in certain product features, providing a reference for companies engaged in marketing and product development.
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- Definitions
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Executive summary
- What you need to know
- Market opportunity 1: unlocking diverse out-of-home consumption occasions
- Graph 1: consumption drivers for ice cream, by consumption occasion, 2025
- Market opportunity 2: floral flavours to soothe the soul
- Graph 2: preferred packaged ice cream flavours, 2022 vs 2024
- Market opportunity 3: children’s segment needs premium dairy, clean-label recipes to boost family sharing appeal
- Graph 3: ice cream consumption frequency – once a week or more, by family structure/age of children in household, 2025
- What we think
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The market
- Market factors
- Macroeconomic indicators (H1 2025)
- Spending remains cautious as various alternatives divert demand from ice cream
- Milk price cuts attract new players, unlock fresh growth opportunities
- Graph 4: average purchase price of wholesale milk in major production regions, 2021-25
- In an era of heatwaves, ice cream brands pivot to refreshing formats and cold chain upgrades
- As births rise, ice cream stands to benefit from a growing child population
- Graph 5: population age structure, 2019-23
- Market size and forecast
- Key market indicators
- Market shows signs of recovery, with modest growth expected ahead
- Graph 6: best- and worst-case forecast for retail value sales of ice cream, 2020-2030
- Market shows signs of recovery, with modest growth expected ahead
- Graph 7: best- and worst-case forecast for retail volume sales of ice cream, 2020-2030
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The consumer
- Summary
- Overview of consumption trends
- Penetration rate nears saturation while high-frequency consumption has yet to break through
- Graph 8: changes in high-frequency consumption and penetration rates of ice cream, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 9: ice cream consumption frequency, by format, 2025
- Packaged ice cream still centres around 25-39s, married consumers
- Graph 10: ice cream consumption frequency – once a week or more, by gender/age/family structure/age of children in household, 2025
- High-frequency consumers double down on packaged products; medium- and low-frequency consumers still opt for freshly made
- Graph 11: type of ice cream consumed, by overall ice cream consumption frequency, 2025
- Graph 12: changes in type of ice cream consumed, by overall ice cream consumption frequency, 2024 vs 2025
- Stickiness lacking among high-frequency consumers of freshly made; packaged segment can regain growth by building nutritional trust
- Graph 13: packaged ice cream consumption barriers – products lack nutritional value, by consumption frequency of ice cream made on the spot, 2025
- Beyond delicious: boost appeal with better-for-you benefits, value for money
- Graph 14: choice factors for ice cream, 2025
- Graph 15: choice factors for packaged ice cream, 2022
- Differentiating packaged ice cream with cleaner, lighter appeal
- Graph 16: consumption barriers for packaged ice cream, 2025
- Graph 17: consumption barriers for packaged sugar confectionery and chocolate, 2025
- Accessible pricing drives broader consumer reach
- Falling prices raise the bar for consumer-aligned pricing strategies
- Unlock niche occasions to meet multifaceted consumer expectations
- Capture out-of-home moments by segmenting occasions across different consumer groups
- Graph 18: consumption occasions for ice cream, 2025
- From solo indulgence to shared sweetness: enhancing the in-home experience
- Graph 19: consumption occasions for ice cream, by age and family structure, 2025
- Cool off any time, anywhere: ice cream is no longer just for summer
- Graph 20: consumption drivers for ice cream, 2025
- Ice cream can be a top choice for a healthier sweet treat
- Graph 21: consumption drivers for ice cream – consumers aged 18-49 in Tier 1 cities, 2021 vs 2025
- Graph 22: attitudes towards sweet snacks, by type of sweet snack consumed weekly, 2025
- Scenario-driven engagement captures curiosity; cross-category collaboration fuels enthusiasm
- Graph 23: consumption drivers for ice cream, by consumption occasion, 2025
- Explore ice cream sports drinks focused around refreshing taste, portable packaging
- Emotional value takes priority in dating scenarios, with looks a key selling point
- Packaged ice cream must deliver more than taste; it should offer a sense of emotional healing
- Low frequency does not equal low demand: packaged ice cream can elevate occasional consumption through emotional rituals
- Graph 24: ice cream consumption occasions, by packaged ice cream consumption frequency, 2025
- Younger women more willing to spend on comforting sweet treats
- Graph 25: ice cream consumption drivers – to improve my mood, by city tier and gender, 2025
- Start with floral flavours to explore potential of scented ice cream
- Upgrading the taste experience: ice cream can also have top, middle and base notes
- Fragrance-flavoured ice cream: new product examples
- Children’s ice cream should delight kids but must impress parents
- Tap into potential of children’s segment by meeting parental demand for top-quality milk
- Graph 26: desired health attributes of packaged ice cream, by age of child(ren) in household, 2024
- Boost family consumption with better product communication and clear, trustworthy information
- Graph 27: consumption barriers for packaged ice cream – concerns about additives, by family structure, 2025
- Enhance package innovation: mess-proofing and social belonging are key
- Graph 28: purchase factors for children’s food and drink, 2019
- Graph 29: purchase factors for children’s ice cream, 2025
- Convenient packaging can boost reach of children’s ice cream
- Examples of new children’s ice cream products in small portions and no-mess formats
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New product trends
- Dairy ice cream growth slows, ice lollies break through amid soaring temperatures
- Graph 30: share of new product launches in desserts and ice cream, by category, 2022-25
- Diversify product development beyond traditional stick, tub formats
- Graph 31: new packaged ice cream products, by format, 2022-25
- Examples of new ice cream products in non-traditional formats
- Yogurt flavour on the rise, floral flavours trending as rice flavour emerges
- Graph 32: share of new packaged ice cream launches, by flavour, 2022-25
- Examples of new ice cream launches with yogurt, floral and rice flavours
- Growing appeal of liquid centres, rich textures and melt-in-the-mouth formats boosts emotional engagement
- Graph 33: share of new packaged ice cream launches – top 10, by texture, 2022-2025
- Examples of new ice cream products with high-growth textures
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Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast
- Methodology: consumer survey
- TURF analysis methodology
- Methodology: price sensitivity analysis
- Methodology: Flavourscape AI
- Abbreviations
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