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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size and forecast
- Market factors
- Consumer insights and opportunities
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THE MARKET
- Market size and forecast
- The packaged ice cream market is stabilising and bouncing back, entering a phase of steady, low-speed growth
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast for retail sales of ice cream, 2020-30
- Market recovery driven by volume growth, with minor price stabilisation supporting low-speed growth
- Graph 2: best- and worst-case forecast for retail volume sales of ice cream, 2020-30
- Market factors
- Packaged ice cream is better aligned with cautious spending and value-for-money needs
- Graph 3: trading up or down in ice cream, 2026
- Milk prices stabilise at low levels while sugar prices continue to fall, keeping input costs favourable for ice cream
- Graph 4: national sugar price index (RMB/tonne), 2025-26
- Cross-category entrants boost innovation in the ice cream category
- Stronger responses to hot weather could extend the peak ice cream season
- Graph 5: ways consumers cope with hot weather, 2025
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer overview
- Packaged ice cream drives category growth as high-frequency consumption opportunities emerge
- Graph 6: frequency of ice cream consumption, 2026
- Graph 7: changes in high-frequency consumption and penetration rates of ice cream, 2025 vs 2026
- Self-treat consumption regains momentum among younger consumers, while the household consumer base expands
- Graph 8: consumption frequency of packaged ice cream – once a week or more, by gender, age, monthly household income, family structure and city tier, 2026
- The overlap between the two user bases is declining as the two categories take on increasingly distinct roles
- Graph 9: type of ice cream consumed, by overall ice cream consumption frequency, 2026
- Graph 10: changes in type of ice cream consumed, by overall ice cream consumption frequency, 2025 vs 2026
- Offline discount snack speciality stores perform remarkably, while online rapid delivery retail platforms surpasses multi-category ecommerce in penetration
- Graph 11: purchase channels for packaged ice cream, 2026
- Cones, tubs/cups and sticks maintain a stable market structure, while sandwich ice cream emerges as a new growth opportunity among younger consumers
- Stable format rankings, with ice cream sandwich and frozen yogurt attracting younger and higher-value consumers
- Graph 12: penetration rate of freshly made ice cream, 2024 vs 2026
- Consumer attitudes to portion size are less about how much they buy and more about how they eat it
- Graph 13: attitude towards packaged ice cream portions, 2026
- Different portion sizes serve different occasions, so packaging should be designed around how consumers eat
- Health: subtraction through free-from claims, addition through high protein
- Pure indulgence consumers are few, with packaged ice cream consumers seeking both health and taste
- Awareness of free-from claims remains limited, leaving room for category education
- Graph 14: free-from claims in packaged dairy products, 2026
- No artificial sweeteners and no artificial colours represent the optimal entry points
- Graph 15: selected free-from claims for packaged ice cream, by gender and monthly household income, 2026
- High protein propositions and organic ingredients are broad-based solutions that make indulgence feel more justifiable
- Graph 16: Health attributes of packaged ice cream, 2026
- The high protein wave has arrived, creating an opportunity for ice cream
- Prioritise milk protein as whey protein is niche and soy protein is yet to be tapped
- Graph 17: interest in protein ingredients, 2026
- Examples of ice cream launches featuring different protein sources
- Indulgence: high-frequency consumers seek quality, medium-frequency consumers seek layers
- Intent to trade up in packaged ice cream is concentrated among high- and medium-frequency consumers
- Graph 18: consumption frequency of packaged ice cream, by trading up or down, 2026
- Different consumers define indulgence differently: high-frequency consumers seek quality and flavour, while medium-frequency consumers seek a complete dessert experience
- Graph 19: product improvement for packaged ice cream, by consumption frequency, 2026
- Premium indulgence requires richer flavours and more sophisticated formats
- Graph 20: perception of ice cream packaging, by formats, 2026
- Create seasonal differentiation from the same base for a more relevant indulgence experience
- Layering, texture combinations and a sense of occasion offer three ways to engage medium-frequency consumers
- Dessert-inspired flavours offer a guilt-free indulgence for health-conscious consumers
- Embed functional benefits into dessert experiences for a more natural health upgrade
- Graph 21: health attributes of packaged ice cream, by product improvement, 2026
- Bases and flavours: new flavours drive the next upgrade, while original flavours maintain the core consumer base
- Flavour pairing preferences are starting to diverge, pointing to promising routes for new product development
- Graph 22: flavour preferences by ice cream base, 2026
- Nut flavours are losing their premium appeal as cake, biscuit and beverage flavours emerge as new trade-up cues
- Graph 23: flavour preferences, by base, 2026
- The premium value of water base × fruit flavours has yet to be established
- Graph 24: flavour preferences by ice cream base, by intent to trade up, 2026
- Challenge the perception that water-based ice creams are ice lollies
- Original flavour remains a key foundation, while richer variants can help broaden market appeal
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NEW PRODUCT TRENDS
- Dairy ice cream is back on a growth trajectory
- Graph 25: share of new product launches in desserts and ice cream, by category, 2023-26
- Cups and sandwich ice cream lead new product growth as indulgence and dessert-inspired trends gain traction
- Graph 26: new packaged ice cream products, by format, 2023-26
- Examples of cup and sandwich ice cream launches
- Free-from claims are gaining momentum, while nutrition and natural claims remain under-utilised
- Graph 27: selected free-from and health claims* for packaged ice cream launches, 2023-26
- Half of consumers prefer lower-fat options, while reduced-sugar appeals to over 40%
- Graph 28: considerations around fat content in ice cream, 2026
- Graph 29: considerations around sugar content in ice cream, 2026
- Examples of ice cream launches featuring free-from claims
- Crunchy and smooth textures secure the core market, while textural innovation returns to authentic mouthfeel
- Graph 30: top 10 textures in packaged ice cream launches, 2023-26
- Examples of ice cream launches featuring smooth, pulpy and chunky textures
- Vanilla loses ground as richer flavours gain momentum
- Graph 31: top 10 flavours in new packaged ice cream, 2023-26
- Examples of milk, dark chocolate and matcha ice cream launches
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APPENDIX
- Market size and forecast
- Consumer data: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels
- Graph 32: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels, 2026
- Methodology: consumer survey
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Methodology: market forecast
- Abbreviations
Ice cream is moving away from sweet indulgence towards guilt-free enjoyment. Brands need to strike the right balance in their health strategy, making targeted additions and reductions where they matter most. They also need to capture specific trade-up opportunities, using new flavours to drive innovation while allowing original flavours to maintain the category's core consumer base. Understanding how consumers are rebalancing indulgence and restraint will be key to unlocking the category's next phase of growth.
Evelyn Shen, Associate Research Analyst, China
Market Definitions
This Report explores the development of the Chinese packaged ice cream retail market, consumers’ ice cream purchasing and consumption behaviours as well as the product features they find appealing, providing a reference for companies engaged in marketing and product development.
In this Report, ice cream refers to frozen desserts as defined in the national food safety standard GB 2759 – 2015 Frozen Drinks and Production Materials, including ice cream, ice lollies, sorbets, popsicles and sweetened ice products, but does not include edible ice. Market size is calculated based on sales across various retail channels, including direct sales, and covers packaged forms of all the frozen dessert types mentioned above. It excludes items such as unpackaged ice cream cones or scooped ice cream from tubs sold in parlours, as well as frozen cakes and other desserts.
Mintel categorises consumers into four groups based on consumption frequency:
- Those who eat ice cream once a week or more are high-frequency consumers;
- Those who eat ice cream 1-3 times a month are medium-frequency consumers;
- Those who eat ice cream once every 2-3 months are low-frequency consumers;
- Those who eat ice cream once every six months or less are occasional consumers.
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