This report looks at the following areas:
- Market size and outlook of the white milk and flavoured milk segments
- New product trends to watch
- Consumption of milk and flavoured milk (including purchase frequency and optimal price for ambient white milk)
- Purposes of drinking milk to supplement protein and calcium
- Purposes of drinking flavoured milk, perception and taste preferences
- Consumer perception of private label and branded milk products
During a period of declining milk prices, it is necessary to reconsider whether the protein narrative can continue to drive sales, and to differentiate and upgrade flavoured milk categories.
Pepper Peng, Senior Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
This Report covers liquid white milk and flavoured milk. White milk referred to in the report includes ambient liquid white milk (products stored at room temperature) and chilled liquid white milk (products that require refrigeration). Flavoured milk referred to in the report includes milk beverages and flavoured modified milk as defined in China’s national food standards.
Market size consists of the value sales/volume sales of packaged goods across all retail channels, including direct sales.
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Executive summary
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definitions
- What you need to know
- Market overview and new product trends
- Consumer trends and insights
- Keys to brand success
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The market
- Market factors
- The ban on reconstituted milk in sterilised milk may help ease the oversupply of milk
- Graph 1: average price of new white milk products per 100mL, by storage method, 2022-25
- The priority of milk consumption remains stable…
- Graph 2: plans to trade up/down in non-alcoholic drinks, 2024
- …yet the consumption trend for white milk varies by storage type
- Graph 3: consumption of milk and milk-containing beverages, 2024 vs 2025
- Dairy product demand and contribution from businesses are gradually expanding
- Market size and forecast
- Oversupply still exists with overall contraction in white milk
- Graph 4: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of white milk, 2019-29
- Graph 5: best- and worst-case forecast of retail volume sales of white milk, 2019-29
- Milk remains the preferred option for supplementing protein, and the market is expected to return to growth after milk prices stabilise
- Market segments
- Under the primary task of clearing ambient white milk inventory, the price reduction has not maximised the boost in value sales
- Graph 6: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of ambient white milk, 2019-29
- Chilled white milk remains strong amid declining milk prices
- Graph 7: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of chilled white milk, 2019-29
- The future of flavoured milk is promising
- Graph 8: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of flavoured milk, 2019-29
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New product trends
- Flavoured milk innovation is more active, especially in ambient products
- Graph 9: white milk and flavoured milk new launches, by share of segments, 2022-25
- Graph 10: share of white milk and flavoured milk in new product launches, by storage method, 2022-25
- White milk: private labels are catching up quickly, with both ambient and chilled categories thriving
- Graph 11: proportion of branded and private label products in new white milk launches, by storage method, 2022-25
- White milk: average prices are declining, while average nutrition content remains basically unchanged
- Graph 12: average protein content of new white milk products (g/100g), by storage method, 2022-25
- Graph 13: average calcium content of new white milk products (mg/100g), by storage method, 2022-25
- Growth of natural claims slows down, while functional categories show fast growth
- Growing functional claim product examples
- Children’s product examples
- Minus claims product examples
- Flavoured milk: continues to be influenced by the flavours of the broader beverage industry
- Graph 14: flavour component subgroup growth in new flavoured milk products*, 2022-25
- Flavoured milk product examples
- Floral and vegetable flavours more prominently express the concept of Chinese wellness
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The consumer
- Overview of consumer behaviour
- Milk consumption at a glance
- The penetration of on-premise milk tea exceeds that of chilled white milk
- Graph 15: consumption frequency of dairy products (includes milk-containing products), 2025
- Penetration varies significantly across city tiers
- Graph 16: changes in the penetration rate of various types of milk and flavoured milk, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 17: change in proportion of medium and high-frequency consumers of white milk and flavoured milk, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- The future of chilled flavoured milk has great potential
- Graph 18: consumption of milk and milk-containing beverages – medium to high frequency vs overall penetration rate*, 2025
- Frequent consumers of white milk are also frequent consumers of freshly made milk tea and milk coffee
- Graph 19: frequency of drinking on-premise milk tea or milk coffee among daily ambient white milk consumers, 2025
- Graph 20: frequency of drinking on-premise milk tea or milk coffee, by chilled white milk daily consumers, 2025
- On-premise dairy product partnerships and communication are becoming more sophisticated
- The optimum price is still RMB5…
- …but consumers’ price sensitivity is further divided
- Graph 21: price sensitivity analysis of ambient white milk prices – mean values, 2022 vs 2025
- Private label brands win with freshness
- Graph 22: perception of private labels and branded products, 2025
- Freshippo boosts freshness by launching non-homogenised milk
- Reasons for protein and calcium supplementation
- Milk is the consumer’s preferred choice for protein
- Consumers still strongly equate milk with protein
- Graph 23: preferred protein – as the top five choices, 2025
- Graph 24: preferred protein – first choice, 2025
- Lower tier markets more strongly associate milk with protein
- Graph 25: preferred proteins – as the top three sources of protein, by city tier, 2025
- Consumers have a clearer understanding of calcium, however
- Graph 26: motivation for supplementing protein and calcium, 2025
- The benefits of calcium can be further amplified
- Example of calcium intake communication: New Hope Qinpai featured science education on its high-calcium milk product bottle
- The future of flavoured milk
- Milk attributes come first, flavour second
- Graph 27: purposes of drinking flavoured milk, 2025
- Food pairing can be a strength of premium flavoured milk in addition to the taste
- Graph 28: purposes of drinking flavoured milk, by monthly household income, 2025
- An intense milky aroma, thicker texture and low sweetness constitute mainstream preferences
- Graph 29: taste preferences for flavoured milk, 2025
- Light-textured flavoured milk could be the jackpot in the premium market
- Graph 30: taste preference – other added flavour, by high/medium-frequency consumers of milk beverages/chilled flavoured milk/ambient flavoured milk, 2025
- Graph 31: taste preferences – sweetness, by monthly household income, 2025
- Mild and restrained natural flavouring helps to overcome the negative image of flavoured milk
- Graph 32: perception towards flavoured milk, 2025
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Issues and Insights
- Overview
- Complete the reasons for milk protein consumption and give calcium supplementation a bigger stage
- Reasons for drinking milk to supplement protein are not solid enough across all age groups
- Graph 33: reasons for consuming milk to supplement protein and calcium, by age, 2025
- Highlight essential amino acids: an example
- Leverage advantages such as dairy supply in chilled white milk products to complement the reasons for consuming milk protein
- Graph 34: perception towards private label and branded milk, by high-frequency chilled white milk consumers living in city Tier 1, 2025
- Communicate brand craftsmanship and high-quality milk: examples
- Ambient high-calcium milk can amplify the functional benefits of calcium beyond bone health
- Flavoured milk categories differentiate and revitalise
- The image of flavoured milk has become healthier in Tier 1 cities
- Tier 1 cities increasingly see flavoured milk as a healthy choice
- Graph 35: perception towards flavoured milk, 2023 vs 2025
- Taste preferences for flavoured milk vary across product types
- Category differentiation opportunity: chilled flavoured milk should emphasise milk attributes and further put forward a healthy image
- Chilled flavoured milk can also appeal to children
- Graph 36: top ten markets with the highest children’s claim share in new flavoured milk products, 2022-25
- Examples of flavoured milk products suitable for children
- Category differentiation opportunities: ambient products and milk beverages amplify drink flavour attributes in response to trends
- Local brands can take it to the next level with regional flavours
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Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast – white milk
- Market segment – ambient white milk
- Market segment – chilled white milk
- Market segments – flavoured milk
- Methodology
- Methodology – price sensitivity analysis
- Abbreviations
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