2024
8
China Milk and Flavoured Milk Market Report 2024
2024-08-15T13:04:08+01:00
REP9AEECDEB_E16E_4CFF_B2C3_CF4410D08D52
3695
175296
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Report
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This report looks at the following areas: Market size and future outlook for white milk and flavoured milk segments Noteworthy new product trends (including trends in organic claims and flavour…
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  8. China Milk and Flavoured Milk Market Report 2024

China Milk and Flavoured Milk Market Report 2024

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This report looks at the following areas:

  • Market size and future outlook for white milk and flavoured milk segments
  • Noteworthy new product trends (including trends in organic claims and flavour innovation)
  • Consumption trends for white milk and flavoured milk
  • Changes in consumption and perceptions of organic milk
  • Repurchase price range and main repurchase triggers for chilled plain milk (1-litre pack)
  • Consumer flavour preferences for cow’s milk

Organic milk has become an important market driver. Consumption of flavoured milk has improved, but there is an urgent need to level up health features by strengthening low/no sugar claims.

Pepper Peng, Senior Analyst, China Insights

Market Definitions

This Report covers white liquid milk and flavoured milk. White milk products discussed in the Report include ambient white liquid milk (ie products stored at room temperature) and chilled white liquid milk (ie products which need to be refrigerated). Flavoured milk products discussed in this Report include milk beverages, and flavoured milk and dairy products which meet national standards.

Market size comprises volume and value sales of packaged goods through all retail channels, including direct-to-consumer.

Demographic definitions:

In this Report, Mintel defines respondents who consume milk or dairy beverages once a day or more as high-frequency users, 2-6 times a week as medium-frequency users, and 2-3 times a month or once a month or less as low-frequency users. Those who have not consumed milk or dairy beverages in the past six months are classified as non-users.

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  1. Executive summary

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definitions
    • What you need to know
    • The market
    • The industry is facing downward pressure, but future development is promising
    • Market factors
    • Companies and brands
    • The market further consolidates around leading brands, while differences between regional brands widen
    • Marketing highlights
    • Flavoured milk innovation activity is on the rise, while Chinese cereal flavours grow rapidly
    • Graph 1: flavoured milk launches, by top 10 fastest growing flavour elements, 2020-24
    • Graph 2: white milk launches, by share of organic/A2/Jersey milk, 2020-24
    • Product examples reflecting the above trends
    • The consumer
    • Ambient white milk maintains its dominant position
    • Graph 3: consumption frequency of milk and dairy beverages, 2024
    • Beyond nutrition, focus on innovations based on pairings with other foods
    • Graph 4: consumption methods for cow’s milk, 2024
    • The primary repurchase factors for chilled plain milk are the same as for ambient, but consumer demand is higher
    • Graph 5: repurchase triggers for chilled white milk, 2024
    • RMB15-20/litre is the main repurchase price range for chilled white milk
    • Graph 6: repurchase price range for chilled white milk (1 litre), 2024
    • Organic milk remains on top, while Jersey milk consumption increases
    • Graph 7: changes in consumption of milk with special claims, 2024
    • Protein and naturalness are top features of organic milk
    • Graph 8: features of organic milk, 2024
    • Fruit flavours are the most popular across all age groups
    • Graph 9: flavour preferences, 2024
    • Niche milk types are currently unable to challenge the dominance of cow’s milk
    • Graph 10: milk source preferences for different dairy products, 2024
    • Issues and insights
    • What we think
  2. The market

    • Market size and forecast
    • Weak consumption and downward pressure sees companies adopt a price-for-volume strategy
    • White milk consumption remains a spending priority, while quality demands will return to growth
    • Market segmentation
    • Ambient white milk maintains its dominant position, as quality continuously improves
    • The chilled white milk market has declined but is expected to rebound
    • Innovation in flavoured milk fuels growth
    • Market factors
    • Call for opinions on national standards for high temperature milk
    • A surplus of raw milk drives an urgent need to stimulate fresh milk consumption
    • Consumer confidence fluctuates, but demand for quality dairy products remains strong
    • Graph 11: trading up and down in non-alcoholic drinks, 2024
    • ‘Nutri-Grade’ health labels look likely to impact flavoured milk consumption
  3. Companies and brands

    • Market share
    • The market further consolidates during industry downturn
    • Differences between regional brands continue to widen, while IPO plans struggle
    • Marketing activities
    • Aldi Westacre competes on value for money
    • Adopt a Cow releases a ‘White Paper on Trends in the A2 Dairy Industry’, further strengthening its leading position
    • Yili continues to practice environmental protection through its packaging
    • New product trends
    • White milk still dominates innovation, while flavoured milk innovation activity is on the rise
    • Graph 12: white milk and flavoured milk launches, by share of ambient/chilled products in each sub-category, 2020-24
    • Graph 13: plain milk and flavoured milk launches, by sub-category share, 2020-24
    • Private label brands gain traction, seeing a significant share increase
    • Graph 14: white milk and flavoured milk launches, by brand and private label share, 2020-24
    • Graph 15: average price/100mg of white milk and flavoured milk launches , by brand and private label, 2020-24
    • Examples of private-label plain milk and flavoured milk products
    • White milk sees a return to safety and natural claims
    • Products with fast-growing claims
    • Launch activity in organic milk remains stable, while innovation increases in A2 and Jersey milk
    • Graph 16: white milk launches, by share of organic/A2/Jersey milk, 2020-24
    • There has been no significant change in the three major nutrients in organic milk
    • Organic milk currently focuses on natural and minus claims, rather than functional claims
    • Fruits and vegetables remain the most popular flavour in new launches
    • Graph 17: flavoured milk launches, by top 10 flavour elements, 2020-24
    • Chinese cereal flavours show impressive growth…
    • Graph 18: top 10 fastest-growing flavour elements in flavoured milk launches, 2020-24
    • …and are starting to demonstrate seasonality
  4. The consumer

    • Consumption habits
    • Consumer penetration rates for all categories remain steady or continue to rise
    • Graph 19: consumer penetration of milk and dairy beverages, 2023-24
    • Ambient white milk maintains its dominant position
    • Graph 20: consumption frequency of milk and dairy beverages, 2024
    • Prioritise nutritional supplementation, followed by indulgent flavours
    • There room to expand in lower-tier cities, while the market for chilled white milk needs further cultivation
    • Graph 21: changes in consumption penetration of milk and dairy beverage categories, by urban tier, 2023-24
    • Graph 22: milk and dairy beverage categories – % change in share of high-frequency consumers, by city tier, 2023-24
    • Consumption methods of white milk
    • As well as being a standalone drink, demand for pairing milk with other foods is also strong
    • Graph 23: consumption methods for cow’s milk, 2024
    • High-frequency users of ambient white milk prefer to drink it by itself, while chilled white milk is used in a wider range of scenarios
    • Graph 24: cow’s milk consumption methods, by consumption frequency of ambient and chilled plain milk*, 2024
    • Marketing based on broader scenarios can first target consumers in their 30s and higher-income families
    • Graph 25: cow’s milk consumption methods, by monthly household income, 2024
    • Graph 26: cow’s milk consumption methods, by age group, 2024
    • Repurchase factors for chilled white milk
    • The primary repurchase factors for chilled white milk are the same as for ambient, but consumer demand is higher
    • Graph 27: repurchase triggers for chilled white milk, 2024
    • Graph 28: repurchase triggers, by type of cow’s milk, 2022 and 2024
    • Mid-to-high-end prices are the main repurchase range for chilled white milk
    • Graph 29: repurchase price range for chilled white milk (1 litre) , 2024
    • Graph 30: repurchase price range for chilled white milk, by consumption frequency*, 2024
    • Special claims are becoming a basic requirement for mid-to-high-end products
    • Graph 31: repurchase triggers for chilled white milk, by repurchase price range, 2024
    • Consumer preferences are different for mixing milk with tea vs coffee
    • Graph 32: repurchase triggers for chilled white milk, by consumption method (mixing with tea/coffee)*, 2024
    • Trends in the consumption of cow’s milk with special claims
    • Organic and Jersey milk win greater popularity
    • Graph 33: changes in consumption of cow’s milk with special claims, 2024
    • Graph 34: cow’s milk with special claims – drink more, 2023-24
    • Organic milk consumers show more frequent milk consumption and are willing to pay a premium price
    • Graph 35: repurchase price range for chilled organic plain milk, by consumers who are drinking more organic milk, 2024
    • Graph 36: consumption frequency of different cow’s milks, by overall consumers and consumers who drink more organic milk, 2024
    • Supply chain adjustments will further promote the development of organic milk
    • Awareness of features of organic milk
    • Protein content and naturalness are the top features of organic milk
    • Graph 37: features of organic milk, 2024
    • Consumers in their 30s and higher-income households are aware of more features of organic milk
    • Graph 38: features of organic milk, by age group, 2024
    • Graph 39: features of organic milk, by monthly household income*, 2024
    • There is potential to attract consumers who drink more milk through other nutritional elements and gut-friendly features
    • Graph 40: features of organic milk, by changes in consumption of organic milk, 2024
    • Organic milk can also be expanded to other high-quality scenarios
    • Graph 41: consumption methods among consumers who drink more organic milk, by consumption frequency of chilled white milk, 2024
    • Graph 42: consumption methods among consumers who drink more organic milk, by consumption frequency of ambient white milk, 2024
    • Milk products suitable for mixing with coffee and using in cooking
    • Flavour preferences
    • Fruit remains the most favoured flavour among consumers
    • Graph 43: flavour preferences, 2024
    • Consumers mixing milk and dairy beverages with tea or coffee expect bolder flavours
    • Graph 44: flavours preference, by select consumption methods, 2024
    • Flavour preferences for freshly made tea drinks can be extended to packaged flavoured milk products
    • Respond to the expectations of high-frequency consumers of flavoured milk with niche flavours
    • Graph 45: flavour preferences, by consumption frequency of ambient flavoured milk, 2024
    • Graph 46: flavour preferences, by consumption frequency of chilled flavoured milk, 2024
    • Direct communication with consumers and pre-sale pilots can reduce trial and error costs
    • Preference for type of milk
    • Cow’s milk is still the top preference in liquid milk
    • Graph 47: milk source preferences for different dairy products, 2024
    • Consumers who drink milk by itself have a lower acceptance of other milk sources
    • Graph 48: milk source preference – chilled white milk, by consumption method, 2024
    • Graph 49: milk source preference – ambient white milk, by consumption method, 2024
  5. Issues and insights

    • Make flavoured milk healthier
    • Current sugar reduction innovations in flavoured milk fall short of consumer demand
    • Graph 50: flavoured milk new products, proportion of sugar-related claims and average carbohydrate content, 2020-24
    • Graph 51: consumer preferences for sugar content in various drinks, 2024
    • Consumers look for natural sugar substitutes, but show limited knowledge of this area
    • Graph 52: awareness of sweeteners – naturalness, 2021 and 2023
    • Take inspiration from adjacent categories for smarter sugar reduction techniques
    • Aside from flavour, focus on the influence of the freshly made tea industry on consumer mouthfeel preferences
    • Focus on the change in texture from thick milk to light milk
    • The popularity of light milk tea provides a new path for flavoured milk innovations
    • Target segmented beverage pairings to meet different mouthfeel demands
    • Strengthen the core ‘natural+’ value of organic milk
    • Spotlight the naturalness of organic milk
    • There is a higher proportion of naturalness claims in the global market, and rapid growth in functional claims
    • Graph 53: organic milk launches, by share of top ten claims**, 2020-24
    • Graph 54: organic milk new launches, by fastest growing claims**, 2023-24
    • Organic milk products with natural and functional claims in the global market
  6. Appendix – market size and forecast, methodology and abbreviations

    • Market size and forecast – white milk
    • Market segmentation – ambient white milk
    • Market segmentation – chilled white milk
    • Market segmentation – flavoured milk
    • Methodology
    • Methodology: TURF analysis
    • Abbreviations

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