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- Definitions
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size and forecast
- Market factors
- Consumer insights and opportunities
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THE MARKET
- Market size and forecast
- Plain milk faces near-term pressure, needs stronger consumption foundations to sustain long-term growth
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast for retail value sales* of plain milk, 2020-30
- Further frequency growth for plain milk is limited, with future opportunity centred on expanding reach and upgrading chilled milk
- Graph 2: best- and worst-case forecast for retail volume sales* of plain milk, 2020-30
- Market segmentation: ambient declines as chilled provides support
- Graph 3: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales* of ambient plain milk, 2020-30
- Graph 4: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales* of chilled plain milk, 2020-30
- Flavoured milk recovery remains uneven, with channel expansion and premiumisation supporting gradual improvement
- Graph 5: best- and worst-case forecast for retail value sales* of flavoured milk, 2020-30
- Market factors
- Supply-demand balance improves, but liquid milk demand has yet to recover
- Graph 6: dairy price index, 2021-26
- Policy support, improved standards and cold chain upgrades drive growth in chilled milk
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Growing divergence between staple plain milk and flavoured dairy, with growth increasingly driven by adult consumption
- Plain milk remains high-frequency, while chilled converts slowly and flavoured softens; growth shifts to mature and smaller households
- Graph 7: milk consumption frequency, 2026
- Graph 8: changes in high-frequency consumption and penetration of milk, 2025 vs 2026
- Staple plain milk shifts upmarket while flavoured dairy softens, as households prioritise essentials
- Graph 9: trading up and down in milk, 2025
- Graph 10: trading up and down in milk, 2026
- Clear separation between consumption and purchase makes conversion to self-purchase the key growth driver
- Graph 11: milk consumption vs purchase penetration, 2026
- Extend school-led engagement into at-home and adult consumption growth
- More fragmented channel landscape supports flexible stocking up and on-the-go consumption needs
- Graph 12: milk purchase channels, 2026
- Dairy channels are evolving from product sales to consumption solutions
- Moving beyond nutritional positioning and reducing consumption barriers to unlock milk’s everyday potential
- Around four in ten consumers still view milk primarily as a nutritional product
- Milk needs to move beyond special, nutrition-related positioning to become part of daily consumption
- Graph 13: trading up and down in ambient plain milk – ‘milk is more of a nutritional supplement than a daily staple’, 2026
- Lower barriers to entry, elevate consumer priorities and keep reinforcing trust to drive wider milk consumption
- Graph 14: milk consumption frequency, 2026
- Diversified consumption formats offer a practical route for milk to break through barriers
- Anchored by drinking occasions, plain milk strengthens its core role while expanding through functional pairings
- Graph 15: plain milk consumption patterns, 2026
- Extending from baking applications to nutritional pairings unlocks opportunities for plain milk beyond drinking
- Reinforce core protein credentials while strengthening functional benefits to ease substitution pressure
- Graph 16: perception of protein in dairy products, 2026
- Repositioning plain milk as a scenario-led protein solution on a high-protein milk base
- From broad-based reassurance to low-burden choices, a tiered approach to addressing various health concerns
- Graph 17: penetration of speciality milk types, by attitude towards milk consumption, 2026
- Expanding the no-burden proposition to drive broader appeal
- From freshness positioning to everyday adoption: building a new growth logic for chilled dairy consumption
- Strengthen the core nutritional value of chilled milk while balancing taste and flavour advantages
- Elevate freshness messaging to highlight fresh nutrition, a refreshing experience and clean ingredients
- Graph 18: reasons for drinking chilled milk, by frequency of chilled plain milk consumption, 2026
- Cold chain underpins core consumer trust, but communications for pasteurised and high-temperature sterilised milk need further differentiation
- Graph 19: attitudes towards chilled milk, 2026
- Break down freshness perceptions to drive different purchase choices through source and point-of-consumption quality
- Delivering dual-path freshness through premium farm sourcing and short urban supply chains
- Resolve the ‘short shelf life, but not suitable for heating’ dilemma with optimised formats and clearer communication
- Graph 20: selected attitudes towards chilled milk, by frequency of chilled plain milk consumption, 2026
- Unlocking the ‘can’t finish, can’t heat’ constraint with on-the-go formats and heat-friendly solutions
- Extend from short shelf-life freshness to safe, longer storage to improve everyday usability of chilled milk
- Graph 21: type of chilled plain milk purchased, by attitude towards chilled milk, 2026
- Redefining the link between perceived quality and stability in chilled milk
- Combine sensory appeal, low-burden positioning and distinctive expression to boost competitiveness in flavoured milk
- Balance dairy base value with sensory experience to enhance overall appeal
- Prioritise sensory appeal to drive trial, then reinforce dairy value to complete the purchase journey
- Graph 22: purchase factors for flavoured milk, 2026
- Stable mainstream flavour preferences create room for differentiated temperature-led positioning in flavoured milk
- Graph 23: flavours of interest, 2026
- Core flavour profiles anchored in dessert, fruit, nuts and seeds
- Extending health-led positioning through plant-inspired flavours in ambient, while floral notes sharpen flavour distinction in chilled
- Optimise fat levels by temperature segment, with ambient focusing on lightness and chilled balancing creaminess with flavour satisfaction
- Graph 24: considerations around fat content in milk, 2026
- Dual-track fat strategies by occasion, balancing low-fat management with creamy indulgence
- Decoupling fat content from richness to enable more nuanced flavour pairing in flavoured milk
- Reduce artificiality in flavoured milk: remove thickeners and eliminate sucrose to meet trading up demand
- Graph 25: free-from claims in flavoured milk, 2026
- Prioritise no artificial preservatives, flavourings or sweeteners to build clean label awareness in flavoured milk
- Soft styling helps dairy drink packaging balance emotion and everyday appeal
- Graph 26: styling preferences, flavoured milk and milk beverages (2026) vs non-alcoholic drinks (2024)
- Layer emotional appeal and growth potential with a lighter style mix
- Blending light-touch processing appeal with grown-up nostalgia for a refined flavoured milk style
- Turn product details into brand cues; create a subtly distinct style with light interaction
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NEW PRODUCT TRENDS
- Flavoured milk drives new product growth while chilled plain milk shifts to efficiency
- Graph 27: share of new dairy product launches, by category, 2023-26
- Graph 28: new plain milk and flavoured milk product launches, by sub-category, 2023–26
- Chilled plain milk innovation shifts from freshness to freshness plus convenience, expanding consumption occasions
- Graph 29: type of chilled plain milk purchased, 2026
- Graph 30: new chilled plain milk product launches, by type, 2023-26
- Chilled plain milk should build clear roles across freshness, convenience and functionality
- Non-fruit flavours are now the next frontier for flavoured milk innovation
- Graph 31: flavours in new ambient flavoured milk launches (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Graph 32: flavours in new chilled flavoured milk launches (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Extend ambient with nutty richness, elevate chilled with fresh tea notes
- Base simplification is now mainstream, with flavoured milk moving towards cleaner formulations
- Graph 33: no added ingredients/claims in new product launches (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
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APPENDIX
- Market size and forecast – plain milk
- Market size and forecast – flavoured milk
- Market segments – ambient plain milk
- Market segments – chilled plain milk
- Consumer data: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels
- Graph 34: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels, 2026
- Methodology: consumer survey
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Methodology: market forecast
- Abbreviations
Plain milk needs to shift from nutritional supplement to daily relevance, while flavoured milk should deliver worry-free enjoyment, making both habitual choices.
Cara Liu, Principal Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
This report examines the development of China’s retail market for plain and flavoured milk, as well as consumer purchasing and consumption behaviours and product preferences, providing a reference for marketing and product innovation.
The report focuses on liquid milk, covering all categories defined under National Food Safety Standard GB 19645–2010 Pasteurised Milk, GB 25190–2010 Sterilised Milk and GB 25191–2010 Modified Milk, as well as formulated milk beverages that meet the definition set out in GB/T 21732–2008 Milk Beverages. Within this, plain milk refers to unflavoured liquid milk or milk with only added sweetness, while flavoured milk refers to liquid milk with added flavouring. Liquid milk can also be classified by storage method into ambient and chilled products.
This Report does not include fermented milk, fermented milk beverages, lactobacillus drinks and plant‑based drinks (dairy alternatives).
Market size for plain and flavoured milk is based on the total retail value and volume sales of packaged products across all channels, including direct sales.
Mintel segments consumers by consumption frequency as follows:
- High-frequency consumers: consume once a day or more;
- Medium-frequency consumers: 1–6 times per week;
- Low-frequency consumers: 2–3 times per month or once a month or less;
- Non-consumers: have not consumed in the last six months
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