“Facing challenged 2022, white milk still got good growth. Special sourced milk with richer nutrition claims is gaining popularity. In the future, innovation based on taste to pair with other food will be other important demand in high-end market. Meanwhile, flavoured milk should seize the chance that consumers’ perception is improving to reposition itself with the same nutritional value as milk.”
– Pepper Peng, Senior Research Analyst
Key issues covered in this Report:
- Market factors from both macro and micro sides
- The market value and forecast of white milk and flavoured milk segments
- New product trends, including organic claim and flavours trend
- Drinking purpose change from 2020 to 2023
- The optimal price for chilled plain milk (1l)
- Guidance on flavour innovation based on consumers’ feelings of fruits
- Consumers’ perception of flavoured milk and different types of chilled plain milk
Collapse All
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Overview
- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Covered in this Report
- Definition
- What you need to know
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Executive Summary
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- The market
- Figure 1: Retail market value and forecast of white milk*, China, 2017-27
- Companies and brands
- Figure 2: Leading companies’ value share of the milk and flavoured milk segment*, China, 2021-22 (est)
- The consumer
- Nearly all categories’ penetrations are bouncing back
- Figure 3: Consumption frequency, 2023
- Organic is the most consumed special sourced milk
- Figure 4: Consumption frequency of special claims, 2023
- Supplementing protein and calcium is still priority
- Figure 5: Drinking purpose, 2023
- The optimal price of chilled plain milk (1l) is RMB15
- Figure 6: Price sensitivity – Optimal price, 2023
- Fruits can be linked to certain emotions
- Figure 7: Feelings for fruits, 2023
- More market education is needed on recent concepts
- Figure 8: Perception of plain milk, 2023
- What we think
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Issues and Insights
- Re-position flavoured milk but not as a beverage
- Figure 9: Grx16 Yogurt from Yinqiao, China, 2022
- Nutrient content is not the only way to compete in high-end markets
- Figure 10: Examples of white milk that is good to pair with other food/drinks, global, 2022-23
- Make flower the new seasonal flavour with Chinese style to add oriental aesthetic values
- Figure 11: Consumption of seasonal flavoured milk beverages, 2021-23
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- Figure 12: Mocktails from Bar Choice, China, 2023
- Figure 13: Heytea x A Dream of Splendor (梦华录), 2022
- Re-position flavoured milk but not as a beverage
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Market Size and Forecast
- 2022 is a hard year to keep growing
- Figure 14: Retail market value and forecast of white milk*, China, 2017-27
- Figure 15: Retail market volume and forecast of white milk*, China, 2017-27
- Still a bright future in the next five years
- 2022 is a hard year to keep growing
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Market Factors
- Economic environment begins to recover…
- …but consumers are spending cautiously
- Flavoured milk implementation standards are not uniform
- Not as worried about COVID as before
- Figure 16: Infection and attitudes towards COVID, 2023
- Economic environment begins to recover…
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Market Segmentation
- Chilled plain milk keeps growing at high speed
- Figure 17: Retail market value and forecast of chilled plain milk*, China, 2017-27
- Ambient plain milk shows more resilience in 2022
- Figure 18: Retail market value and forecast of ambient plain milk*, China, 2017-27
- The decline of flavoured milk slows
- Figure 19: Retail market value and forecast of flavoured milk*, China, 2017-27
- Chilled plain milk keeps growing at high speed
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Market Share
- Industrial gaps widen significantly
- CR2 keeps growing during hard times
- Figure 20: Leading companies’ value share of the milk and flavoured milk segment*, China, 2021-22 (est)
- Regional brands vary considerably
- The IPO heat of dairy companies
- Industrial gaps widen significantly
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Marketing Activities
- Mengniu fully leverage the sponsorship of World Cup 2022
- Figure 21: Ambassadors of Mengniu, 2022 FIFA
- Figure 22: Children image in advertisement of Messi, 2022
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- Figure 23: Mengniu pure milk FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 version, China, 2022
- Figure 24: Limited edition of 12 classic moments in FIFA World Cup and Offline advertisements in 12 cities, China 2022
- Yili embraces AI technology
- AI Package
- Figure 25: Package designed by AI from Yili, China, 2023
- AI ambassador
- Figure 26: Digital ambassador for Satine: Jin Dian (金婰), China, 2023
- Junlebao sponsors National Barista Professional Skills Competition
- Figure 27: Junlebao sponsors National Barista Professional Skills Competition, China, 2022
- Mengniu fully leverage the sponsorship of World Cup 2022
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New Product Trends
- Organic is the biggest type of special milk…
- Figure 28: Shares of milk with special claims in new launches white milk – Liquid, China, 2019-23 (till May)
- …and limited ranch is new way to visualise high quality
- Figure 29: Shares of milk from limited ranch in new launches of white milk – Liquid, China, 2019-23 (till May)
- Figure 30: Examples of white milk with limited ranch claim, China, 2023
- Figure 31: Hongya ranch introduction, New Hope, 2022
- Flavoured milk is leaning towards on-premise drinks
- China misses out on bakery and savoury flavour group
- Figure 32: Top 10 flavour component group in new launches of flavoured milk – Liquid, Global and China, 2022-23 (till May)
- Figure 33: Top 10 savoury/bakery flavour (inc. blend) unordered in new launches of flavoured milk – Liquid, Global, 2022-23 (till May)
- Figure 34: Examples of bakery/savoury flavour milk, 2023
- Beverage flavour is growing rapidly, led by coffee and tea flavours
- Figure 35: Top 9 flavours in new launches of flavoured milk under beverage flavour group, China, 2019-23 (till May)
- Figure 36: Examples of tea and coffee flavoured milk, China, 2023
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- Figure 37: Examples of novel beverage (coffee & spice and alcohol & fruit) flavoured milk, global, 2022-23
- Chinese-style flora flavour shows potential under popularisation of floral flavours
- Figure 38: Examples of flavoured milk with floral flavour, China, 2022-23
- Figure 39: Examples of Chinese-style flora flavoured coffee/milk tea, China, 2022-23
- Taro is leading the growth of fruit and vegetable flavour
- Figure 40: Top 10 flavour sub-category (unordered) of fruits & vegetables in flavoured milk, China, 2022-23 (till May)
- Figure 41: Top 10 flavour (inc. blend) unordered in flavoured milk, China, 2021-23 (till May)
- Figure 42: Examples of taro, raspberry & peach (white) flavoured milk, China, 2023
- Better communication is needed for lactoferrin protein and immunoglobulin
- Figure 43: Shares of milk with lactoferrin or immunoglobulin in new launches of white milk and flavoured milk – Liquid, China, 2019-23 (till May)
- Figure 44: New Hope, 24-Hour Timing Fresh Milk, China, 2023
- Organic is the biggest type of special milk…
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Consumption Frequency
- Nearly all categories are winning back in terms of penetration…
- Figure 45: Consumption frequency, 2023
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- Figure 46: Consumption penetration, by dairy types, 2022-23
- …but losing heavy-users
- Figure 47: Consumption frequency change, 2022-23
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- Figure 48: Change in heavy-users, by age, 2022-23
- Penetration in lower tier cities obviously gained
- Figure 49: Penetration change, by city tier, 2022-23
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- Figure 50: Change in heavy-users, by city tier, 2022-23
- Nearly all categories are winning back in terms of penetration…
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Usage of Milk with Special Claims
- Organic milk leads the consumption increase
- Figure 51: Consumption frequency of special claims, 2023
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- Figure 52: Consumption frequency of milk – Drink more, by age, 2023
- Added-value claims that can be leveraged
- Figure 53: Drinking purpose, by milk with special claims – Drink more, 2023
- Organic milk leads the consumption increase
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Drinking Purpose
- Needs for protein ad calcium keep climbing
- Figure 54: Drinking purpose, 2023
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- Figure 55: Drinking purpose, 2020 and 2023
- Figure 56: TURF Analysis – Drinking purpose, 2023
- Wealthy are looking for things besides protein and calcium
- Figure 57: Drinking purpose*, by monthly household income group, 2023
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- Figure 58: Lepure, Cui Ru, 2022
- Consumers aged 18-24 have less nutritional demand
- Figure 59: Drinking purpose, by age group, 2023
- Needs for protein ad calcium keep climbing
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Price of Affordable Products
- The optimal price is RMB15/l
- Figure 60: Price sensitivity – Optimal price, 2023
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- Figure 61: Price sensitivity – Threshold prices, 2023
- Figure 62: Mean and median of price sensitivity at different level, 2023
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- Figure 63: Price comparison between optimal price and average price of new launches*, 2023
- Figure 64: Consumption plan when financial status change, by milk type, 2023
- Consumers in their 30s are more price sensitive
- Figure 65: Price sensitivity, by age, 2023
- Market education helps consumers find it easier to accept higher prices
- Figure 66: Price sensitivity, by perception of milk, 2023
- The optimal price is RMB15/l
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Feelings for Fruits
- Leverage different fruits to convey special feelings
- Figure 67: Feelings for fruits, 2023
- Feeling towards fruits varies by age
- Figure 68: Feelings for fruits*, by age, 2023
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- Figure 69: Feeling for fruits – Vibrant, by age, 2023
- Figure 70: Feeling for fruits – In-home relaxing, by age, 2023
- Leverage different fruits to convey special feelings
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Perception of Milk
- Still marketing room for trendy concepts
- Figure 71: Perception of plain milk, 2023
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- Figure 72: I know the difference of health benefits between the lactoferrin and immunoglobulin, by age, 2023
- Flavoured milk’s impression is improving
- Figure 73: Drinking purpose, by attitudes towards to flavoured milk, 2023
- Keep it simple, but keep it fun
- Figure 74: Drinking purpose, by consumer group, 2023
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- Figure 75: Bright Fireworks Flavoured Pasteurised Yogurt (gnpd id: 10549766), 2023
- Still marketing room for trendy concepts
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Food Persona
- Who are they?
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- Figure 76: Food persona, 2023
- Figure 77: Food persona, by generation, 2023
- Jersey milk and grass-fed milk need time to be a mature trend
- Figure 78: Usage of milk with special claims – Drink more, by food persona, 2023
- Emotional eaters are more likely to have positive attitudes towards chilled flavoured milk
- Figure 79: Perception of milk – Chilled flavoured milk is healthier than milk tea from tea houses, by food persona, 2023
- Figure 80: Perception of milk – CHAID
- Who are they?
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 81: Retail market value and forecast of white milk, China, 2017-27
- Figure 82: Retail market volume and forecast of white milk, China, 2017-27
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 83: Retail market value and forecast of chilled plain milk, China, 2017-27
- Figure 84: Retail market value and forecast of ambient plain milk, China, 2017-27
- Figure 85: Retail market value and forecast of flavoured milk, China, 2017-27
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
- Methodology
- CHAID analysis methodology
- TURF analysis methodology
- Price sensitivity analysis methodology
- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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