This report looks at the following areas:
- Market growth is slowing: high penetration, product innovation and channel optimisation are crucial.
- Channel competition is intensifying: private labels are on the rise, while premium products are preferred in high frequency channels.
- Consumer insights: women aged 18-39 are the main consumers, and mid-to-low tier cities hold vast potential.
- Health demands are on the up: preservative-free, low-fat, and low-sugar formulations are favoured.
- Flavours/textures are diversifying: introduce innovative textures, focusing on salty and Chinese flavours.
- Frozen bakery foods: a source of significant potential, requiring a balance between cost-effectiveness and premiumisation.
Brands can achieve growth in an increasingly saturated market by enhancing the taste experience, creating healthier recipes and optimising channel resources.
Cara Liu, Principal Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
This Report explores the state of China’s packaged bakery foods market, consumer habits relating to packaged bakery foods and product characteristics that interest consumers, providing a reference for companies to use in marketing and product development.
The market size comprises value sales across various retail channels, including direct sales, and covers barcoded bread and cakes/pastries sold individually or in multipacks:
- Bread – includes puff bread/tearable bread (eg croissant-style bread), sandwich bread, toasting bread and European bread;
- Cakes/pastries – includes cakes, shortcrust/puff pastries and steamed pastries.
The trends in product and marketing innovation in this Report cover packaged bread, cakes and pastries, sweet and savoury biscuits and baked dishes such as pizza and pies.
The following categories are excluded from the scope of this Report:
- Unpackaged bakery foods (see the Mintel report Bakery Houses – China – 2024 for details);
- Bakery ingredients (see the Mintel report Cooking and Baking Habits – China – 2024 for details);
- Flour- or rice-based staple foods, including stuffed buns, steamed buns and tangyuan (see the Mintel report Ready Meals – China – 2024 for details).
Mintel has categorised consumers of packaged bakery foods into three groups based on consumption frequency:
- Consumers who eat packaged bakery foods once a day or more are considered high frequency consumers;
- Consumers who eat packaged bakery foods several times a week are considered medium frequency consumers;
- Consumers who eat packaged bakery foods once a week or less are considered low frequency consumers.
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Executive summary
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definitions
- What you need to know
- Key market indicators
- Competitive landscape
- Macroeconomic variables and micro decision factors
- Category opportunities
- What we think
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Market dynamics
- Market size and forecast
- Market expansion is slowing; brands explore new opportunities in a low-growth environment
- Packaged bakery foods are widely popular in everyday life
- Graph 1: frequency of packaged bakery food consumption (net), 2025
- Graph 2: frequency of packaged snack consumption, 2025
- Product innovation is increasingly vital for sustainable growth
- Graph 3: packaged bakery food launches, by type of launch, 2019-25
- Graph 4: proportion of packaged bakery foods among all food launches, 2019-25
- Market segments
- The biscuit market is nearing saturation; bread penetration exceeds 90%
- Graph 5: penetration of packaged bakery foods, 2025
- New product growth: mealtime bakery foods lead; pastries and bread continue to expand; biscuits decline under pressure
- Graph 6: packaged bakery food launches, by sub-category, 2019-25
- Market segment: bread
- Graph 7: retail sales in the packaged bread market, 2019-24
- Market segment: cakes and pastries
- Graph 8: retail sales in the packaged cakes/pastries market, 2019-24
- Market segment: biscuits
- Graph 9: retail sales in the packaged biscuit market, 2019-24
- Market factors
- A slight easing of food budgets brings premiumisation opportunities to the snack category
- Graph 10: stick to a set budget for food and groceries, 2024-25
- Graph 11: spending on snacks, 2025
- Freshly made products are in favour; growth in packaged bakery foods slows
- Graph 12: growth of retail sales in the bakery market, packaged bakery foods vs bakery houses, 2020-24
- Graph 13: trading up/down on bakery products, 2024
- Consumer attitudes skew conservative; new products must trade price for volume
- Graph 14: annual rate of change in prices of new packaged bakery foods, 2020-24
- Graph 15: sugar confectionery and pastry Consumer Price Index, 2020-23
- Sodium dehydroacetate sparks controversy; clean ingredient lists are key to trading up
- Graph 16: ‘sodium dehydroacetate + bakery’* media** mentions, 2024-25
- Finer and better bakery oils alleviate consumer health concerns
- Graph 17: average fat content in launches of packaged bakery foods, 2020-25
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Competitive landscape
- Market share
- Market concentration has increased; retailers’ share is rapidly growing
- Retailers are now the mainstay of packaged bakery food innovation
- Mainstream brands lead on Tmall, while internet famous brands dominate on Douyin
- Company performance
- A tale of two companies: Toly slows, Dali grows again
- Mid-sized companies continue to focus on brand marketing and product innovation
- Comprehensive snack brands: Three Squirrels gets out of difficulty, while Bestore is still undergoing adjustment
- Private labels: a precise response to the demand for value for money and convenience
- Graph 18: private label share of packaged bakery food launches, 2019-25
- Purchase channels
- Traditional supermarket channels remain mainstream; emerging channels seeing rapid penetration
- Graph 19: select channels for purchasing bakery products, 2024-25
- Channels frequented by high frequency consumers are for trying new things; channels frequented by medium frequency consumers are for the routine shop
- Graph 20: packaged bakery food consumption frequency, by snack purchase channel, 2025
- Preferred brands
- Assured quality and a sense of freshness: imported brands and white labels are more favoured by frequent bakery consumers
- Graph 21: packaged bakery food consumption frequency, by preferred snack brand type, 2025
- Private labels enjoy both price advantages and premiumisation potential
- Graph 22: average price of packaged bakery food launches, by brand type, 2019-25
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Consumer demographics and behaviour
- Focus on women aged 18-39, tapping into new growth in lower-tier cities
- Women aged 18-24 are the most active consumer group
- Graph 23: packaged bakery food consumption frequency, by gender and age, 2025
- Women aged 30-39 consume the greatest variety of categories
- Graph 24: average number of types of packaged bakery food consumed, by gender and age, 2025
- Women aged 30-39 and men aged 25-29 consume packaged bakery foods on the widest range of occasions
- Graph 25: average number of packaged bakery food consumption occasions (net), by gender and age, 2025
- High income households tend to trade up on packaged bakery foods more
- Graph 26: average number of types of packaged bakery foods consumed, by household income, 2025
- Graph 27: packaged bakery food consumption frequency, by household income, 2025
- Explore the potential of Tier 2 and lower tier cities
- Graph 28: average number of types of packaged bakery foods consumed, by city tier*, 2025
- Graph 29: packaged bakery food consumption frequency, by city tier*, 2025
- Strategic directions: focus on women aged 18-39 and explore new growth in lower tier cities
- Taste experience and better-for-you attributes are core purchase factors
- Taste comes first; social influence is limited
- Graph 30: snack purchase factors, by packaged bakery food consumption frequency, 2025
- Health and convenience drive frequent consumption; value for money attracts low frequency consumers
- Biscuits and bread are the cornerstone of bakery consumption; frozen baked goods are driving industry change
- Savoury biscuits and toast drive overall bakery consumption growth
- Graph 31: penetration rate of packaged bakery foods, by packaged bakery food consumption frequency, 2025
- Consumer demand for sweet biscuits, soft bread and cakes is more rigid
- Graph 32: penetration of packaged bakery foods, by snack spending, 2025
- Consumers are enthusiastic about frozen packaged bakery foods
- Cold chain bakery foods win the industry’s heart and grow market share
- Graph 33: sub-categories of new launches of frozen pastries, breads, and mealtime bakery foods, 2020-25
- Graph 34: storage methods for new pastry, bread and mealtime bakery foods, 2020-25
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Categories and opportunities
- Biscuits: capture the emotional resonances of texture and flavour to boost savoury innovation
- Biscuits meet needs for leisure, convenience and nutrition
- Graph 35: biscuit consumption occasions, 2025
- Crunchiness remains centre stage; other textures wait in the wings
- Graph 36: biscuit textures, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2025)
- Add ‘bits’ to biscuits and focus on dense textures
- Examples of new biscuit products featuring ‘with bits’ and ‘dense/thick’ textures
- Sweet flavours lead in innovation; savoury flavours need a saviour
- Graph 37: biscuit flavours, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2025)
- Examples of new biscuit products with nut, grain and spice flavours
- Focus on better-for-you improvements such as reduced sugar, enhanced nutrition and whole grains
- Graph 38: biscuit better-for-you claims, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2025)
- Examples of new healthier biscuit products
- Bread: develop diverse textures, Chinese flavours and flexible pairing options
- Highlight the flexibility of bread in terms of taste and pairing
- Graph 39: bread consumption occasions, 2025
- Soft textures lead the bread market; other textures hold untapped potential
- Demand for diverse bread textures still untapped
- Graph 40: bread texture, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2025)
- More innovation in gooey and flaky bread textures required
- Examples of new bread products with gooey and flaky textures
- Few innovations in products with tuber, rice, tea and floral flavours
- Graph 41: bread flavours, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2023)
- Examples of new bread products featuring tuber crop, rice, tea, and floral flavours
- Bring on more fibre and protein; breakthroughs needed in the ‘four lows’
- Graph 42: bread better-for-you claims, new product launches (2022-25) vs consumer interest (2025)
- Examples of new healthier bread products
- Frozen bakery food: dispel the myths around ‘freshly made’ baked goods to open up value-for-money and premium markets
- Frozen packaged bakery foods must dispel the myths surrounding ‘freshly made’ baked goods
- Graph 43: bakery food awareness, 2025
- Examples of new frozen packaged bakery foods that lead on freshness, taste, and nutrition
- From baking semi-finished products to thaw-and-eat items: give consumers the ability to control their baked goods budget
- Graph 44: interest in frozen packaged bakery foods, by spending on snacks, 2025
- In frozen packaged bakery, go in hard on value for money and reduce unnecessary supply chain losses and premiums
- Frozen packaged bakery foods have premiumisation potential and can enter a broader market
- Graph 45: interest in frozen packaged bakery foods, by monthly household income, 2025
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Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast
- Consumer data: packaged bakery food premiumisation factors
- Graph 46: premiumisation factors for various categories of packaged bakery foods, 2025
- Consumer data: packaged bakery foods consumption occasions
- Graph 47: consumption occasions for various packaged bakery foods, 2025
- Methodology: consumer survey
- TURF analysis methodology
- Abbreviations
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