The increasing popularity of on-premise coffee is a challenge for the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee market. To shore up their competitive advantage, RTD black coffee and RTD milk coffee need to create differentiation by focusing on their own unique attributes.
Marta Zhang, Senior Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
The Report discusses the following ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee products:
RTD coffee drinks, which include coffee drinks sold through retail channels such as supermarkets that can be consumed directly, such as Starbucks Frappuccino and Bernachon (贝纳颂). They can be consumed immediately without the need to add water or flavourings.
Subgroup definitions:
- high-frequency consumers are those who drink it once a day or more
- medium-frequency consumers are those who drink it once or several times a week
- low-frequency consumers are those who drink it less than once a week
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Executive summary
- Key issues in this Report
- Definitions
- What you need to know
- RTD coffee market: key indicators
- Market factors
- New product trends
- Consumer trends
- Future opportunities
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The market
- Market size and forecast
- Continued expansion of on-premise coffee posing a challenge to the RTD coffee market
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales in the RTD coffee market, 2020-30
- Value for money and portability benefits contribute to volume sales stability
- Graph 2: best- and worst-case forecast of retail volume sales in the RTD coffee market, 2020-30
- Market factors
- Macroeconomic indicators overview
- Coffee drinking is becoming more habitual…
- Graph 3: consumption penetration*, 2021-25
- Graph 4: proportion of high-frequency consumers**, 2021-25
- ……while falling on-premise coffee prices is fuelling consumer demand
- New national food safety standards forbid misleading ‘no added’ claims in pre-packaged foods
- Graph 5: ‘no added’ claims consumers value, 2023-25
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Companies and brands
- Competitive landscape
- Riding the private label wave, retailers are launching more RTD coffee products
- Graph 6: new launches of RTD coffee products, by type of brand, 2020-25
- Nongfu Spring’s coffee products continue their expansion at Sam’s Club
- Nescafé’s new coffee products launched in the Yunnan production region
- Drinks brands increasing their stake in RTD coffee market with differing product strategies
- New product trends
- Black coffee products increase their share significantly
- Graph 7: new launches of RTD coffee products – Americano/black coffee, 2020-25
- New larger-format products continue to gain market attention
- Graph 8: new launches of RTD coffee products, by product size, 2020-25
- Flavour innovations: rise of fruit, vegetable and Chinese flavours
- Graph 9: flavours landscape of new RTD coffee products
- Flavours landscape: methodology
- Examples of fruit and vegetable flavoured products
- Examples of products with Chinese flavours
- Minus claims dominate in new RTD coffee products, growth momentum of natural claims stabilising
- Graph 10: claims landscape for RTD coffee products
- Rise in number of new products with functional and plus claims
- Graph 11: new launches of RTD coffee products, by claim type, 2020-25
- Examples of functional RTD coffee products
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The consumer
- RTD coffee consumer trends and category penetration
- RTD coffee remains in the top three for market penetration
- Graph 12: penetration of coffee segments, 2023-25
- RTD coffee penetration is gradually increasing among high income and female consumers
- Graph 13: RTD coffee penetration rate, by monthly household income, 2023-25
- Graph 14: RTD coffee penetration rate, by gender, 2023-25
- Drinking freshly made coffee becoming more habitual among consumers; RTD coffee consumption frequency stalling
- Graph 15: consumption frequency – freshly made coffee from foodservice channels/coffee houses, 2023-25
- Graph 16: consumption frequency – RTD coffee, 2023-25
- Proportion of high-frequency consumers in high-income groups has surpassed that in low-income groups
- Graph 17: proportion of high-frequency consumers – RTD coffee, by monthly household income, 2023-25
- Milk coffee leads market segment penetration, followed closely by pure black coffee
- Graph 18: consumption frequency of RTD coffee segments, 2025
- Consumption frequency of traditional categories continues to increase; flavoured options facing obstacles to growth
- Graph 19: RTD coffee segments consumption frequency – several times a week or more, 2024-25
- New cold brew black coffee products
- Black coffee: with trend towards larger sizes, quality upgrades and expansion of drinking occasions are keys to success
- Degree of roast and brewing process are the most sought-after factors and brand power is crucial
- Graph 20: product selection factors, 2025
- Improve processing methods to stand out
- Graph 21: product selection factors, by monthly household income, 2025
- Future: brands and consumers increasingly value sustainable processes
- Primary advantage of larger sizes is value for money and shareability supports premiumisation
- Graph 22: advantages of larger sizes, 2025
- Graph 23: advantages of larger sizes, by monthly household income, 2025
- High-frequency consumers prefer the freshness and flexibility of larger-sized products
- Graph 24: pros of sharing sizes, by RTD coffee consumption frequency, 2025
- Use packaging to highlight the product’s freshness
- Larger formats: flexibility is the new growth opportunity
- Case study: bottled customisable brew strength black coffee
- The future: larger sizes, multiple servings
- Black coffee: the all-day choice for the workweek
- Graph 25: RTD coffee drinking occasions, 2025
- Shift emphasis from quick boost to suitability as an all-day drink
- Milk coffee: use flavour to highlight leisure attributes; focus on potential of fitness scenarios and meal pairings
- RTD coffee is more suited to outdoor leisure scenarios
- Graph 26: drinking occasions, 2025
- Milk coffee products are more aligned with weekend leisure scenarios
- Graph 27: RTD coffee drinking occasions, 2025
- Richness and coffee flavour more important than milk flavour
- Graph 28: taste preferences for milk coffee, 2025
- Focus on aroma in milk coffee and highlight suitability for leisure scenarios
- Graph 29: taste preferences for milk coffee, 2025
- Use low sweetness and intense flavours to target the premium market
- Graph 30: milk coffee taste preferences – sweetness, by monthly household income, 2025
- Graph 31: milk coffee taste preferences, by monthly household income, 2025
- Examples of strong coffees
- Tap into the potential of fitness scenarios
- Graph 32: drinking occasions – before/after working out, by RTD coffee consumption frequency, 2025
- RTD coffee: a new option for protein supplementation in sports scenarios
- Graph 33: new launches of ready-to-drink milk coffee products, 2020-25
- Graph 34: interest in added ingredients in sports nutrition food/drinks, 2024
- Use high protein to build a healthful image for RTD coffee
- Focus on food pairing opportunities; milk coffee has greater potential in main meals and Chinese desserts
- Graph 35: pairing with foods, 2025
- Provide meal inspirations with partner brands
- From pairing with food to becoming an integral part of the food
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Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast
- Methodology
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Abbreviations
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