This report looks at the following areas:
This is an annual Report summarising consumer trends in China.
- Analysis of China’s economic development and development trends through key socio-economic and demographic indicators
- Overview of the recovery and development of the overall consumer market (covering forecasts for 2024 and a long-term outlook for the next five years)
- The current state of 15 major consumer goods categories, trend insights and keys to success
- Research into changing trends in consumer attitudes and lifestyles
As the Chinese economy’s centre of gravity shifts from speed to quality, the demographic structure is undergoing long-term changes and the macro-environment is becoming more complex and volatile. Consumers will judge value from multiple perspectives as they pursue quality lifestyles, and diversified consumption will become an important trend.
Blair Zhang, Senior Analyst, China Insights
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Executive summary
- Key issues covered in this Report
- What you need to know
- China today
- The 'three new pillars' of growth see the focus of China's economic development shift from speed to quality
- Graph 1: GDP and year-on-year growth, 2014-24
- The consumer market moves on from the pandemic, but there is potential still to be realised
- Graph 2: total retail sales of consumer goods and year-on-year growth, 2014-24
- Weak demand is the biggest challenge facing the market environment
- Graph 3: PMI operating environment, by manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, 2022-24
- Graph 4: year-on-year CPI growth (%), 2014-24
- Declining total population and deepening ageing
- Graph 5: share of older population, China, 2014-23
- Graph 6: population and year-on-year growth, 2014-23
- Growth in disposable per-capita income slows, and the employment situation and workplace pressure continues to impact consumption
- Graph 7: national household disposable income per capita and year-on-year growth (not adjusted for prices), 2014-24
- Graph 8: urban surveyed unemployment rate (%), 2018-24
- Consumer spending
- Demand for travel, socialising and quality of life drove moderate recovery in consumer spending in 2023
- Graph 9: share of total consumer spending by category (%), 2023 (est)
- Graph 10: total consumer spending and year-on-year growth rate, 2014-23 (est)
- Short-term impact and five-year outlook
- The consumer
- Financial situations are slowly recovering; savings-based financial planning remains the highest priority
- Graph 11: current financial situation, 2016-2024
- Consumer confidence fluctuates and recovers as macro factors rise in influence
- Graph 12: confidence about improving their financial situation in the next 12 months, 2019-2024
- Graph 13: confidence about improving their financial situation in the next three months, 2020-24
- In the era of pragmatic consumption, trading-off and balancing needs becomes more important
- Graph 14: spending plans, 2024
- Travel is the preferred choice for hedonistic spending, while enthusiasm for investment and savings doesn't diminish
- Graph 15: spending plans for extra money – top 11 spending plans*, 2024
- A new benchmark for high-quality products: professional certification and cultural confidence
- Graph 16: definition of quality, 2014-24
- Younger consumers have more-diverse brand image preferences
- Graph 17: preferred brand archetypes, by generation, 2024
- What we think
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China today
- The economy
- Growth slows as China's economy shifts towards high-quality development
- Graph 18: GDP and year-on-year growth, 2014-24
- Consumption's role in driving the economy is becoming more pronounced
- Graph 19: total retail sales of consumer goods and year-on-year growth, 2014-24
- Consumption growth slowed in the first quarter of 2024, but spending on essentials remained strong
- Graph 20: year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, by consumption categories, 2014-24
- The manufacturing sector begins to recover, while non-manufacturing sector continues to expand
- Graph 21: PMI operating environment, by manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, 2022-24
- Large firms lead the recovery, SMEs struggle to survive
- Graph 22: PMI operating environment – manufacturing, by company size, 2022-24
- Property investment continues to decline as the industry shifts from preventing over-heating to preventing over-cooling
- Graph 23: national investment in property development (RMB 100m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2014-24
- The sluggish price index indicates a need to stimulate market demand
- Graph 24: year-on-year CPI growth (%), 2014-24
- Population
- Increased societal challenges stemming from negative population growth
- Graph 25: birth rate and mortality rate, China, 2014-23
- Graph 26: total population and growth, 2014-23
- Ageing is intensifying, and the opportunities for the development of the silver economy are further highlighted
- Graph 27: share of older population, China, 2014-23
- Graph 28: old-age dependency ratio, 2014-22
- Family structures are being revolutionised, with the proportion of small families having risen significantly over the past 20 years
- Graph 29: family structure changes*, China, 2002-22
- Income growth has slowed since 2022
- Graph 30: year-on-year growth of national household disposable income per capita (not adjusted for prices), by region, 2014-24
- Graph 31: national household disposable income per capita and year-on-year growth (not adjusted for prices), 2014-24
- The employment situation has eased since 2022…
- Graph 32: urban surveyed unemployment rate (%), 2018-24
- …but 'workplace blues' have become a common sentiment
- Graph 33: average weekly working hours of employees nationwide*, 2020-24
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Consumer spending
- Now
- Consumption recovered moderately in 2023
- Graph 34: total consumer spending and year-on-year growth, 2014-23
- Clothing, food, housing and transportation remain the biggest outlays
- Graph 35: consumer spending by category, 2023 (est)
- Graph 36: share of total consumer spending by category (%), 2023 (est)
- Current consumer growth is driven by the desire to go out, socialise and improve one's quality of life
- Graph 37: total year-on-year consumer spending growth (%), 2023 (est)
- Categories receive similar levels of spending, and the progress of market recovery is unchanged
- The future
- Short term: in 2024, categories will recover at varying rates
- Graph 38: year-on-year consumer spending growth (%), 2019 vs 2024 (fore)
- Long-term: five-year outlook
- Keys to success: reshape value perceptions and focus on current sentiment and health issues
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Category reviews
- In-home food
- Now
- Graph 39: consumer spending on in-home food, 2017-23
- 2023 trends in in-home food
- Challenges in the era of intentional spending: consumer willingness to trade up is down since 2023, and 'intentional spending' is affecting home food consumption
- Graph 40: proportion of category buyers who intend to trade up (ie buy more expensive brands or products), 2021-24
- Challenges in the era of intentional spending: consumers' quest for value for money is reshaping the food distribution channel landscape
- Challenges in the era of intentional spending: changing consumer behaviour in food & drink will create new opportunities
- Graph 41: ways that consumers save money on food & drink, 2023
- Challenges in the era of intentional spending: brands are actively transforming to cope with changes in demand side
- Graph 42: social media mentions of 'affordable/dupe (平价/平替)'*, 2022-23
- The health trend maintains momentum: reduced sugar and fat, high dietary fibre and health function claims are all on the rise
- Graph 43: share new food launches, by health claims, 2019-23
- The health trend maintains momentum: the Chinese yangsheng trend affords innovation opportunities
- Graph 44: select attitudes towards traditional Chinese healthcare methods, 2024
- The health trend maintains momentum: focus on the potential for Chinese wellness among younger demographics
- Graph 45: consumer attitudes towards 'nourishing snacks', by age, 2024
- The health trend maintains momentum: natural, free-from and nutritional functions are all on the rise
- Graph 46: share new food launches, by health claims, 2019-23
- Growing demand for convenient cooking: Western ready meals/convenience food innovations are alive and well
- Graph 47: share of new Western convenience food launches, 2019-23
- Growing demand for convenient cooking: adapting to modern cooking tools and diverse eating scenarios
- Graph 48: share of new convenience food launches, by heating method, 2019-23
- The future
- Keys to success
- Foodservice (eating out and takeaways)
- Now
- Graph 49: consumer spending on foodservice (eating out and takeaways), 2017-23
- Low price strategies continue, and lower-tier markets are explored
- Actively create exclusive days to make promotions more flexible and interesting
- Highlight product quality with more transparent information on ingredients and processes
- Consumer attitudes towards prepared food have become more pragmatic; brands still need to strengthen communication, with consumers' right to know key to building trust
- Graph 50: distribution of sentiment towards 'semi-finished foods (半成品)' or 'pre-prepared dishes (预制菜)' on social media*, 2023-24
- Enrich product ranges with personalised options to stimulate consumption potential
- Enhance customisation and interactivity through co-creation
- The future
- Keys to success
- Non-alcoholic drinks
- Now
- Graph 51: consumer spending on non-alcoholic drinks, 2017-23
- The peak of the pandemic and energetic lifestyles fuelled rapid growth in sports drinks
- Tea drinks pioneer 'genuinely sugar-free' claims amid the reduced sugar trend
- Widespread fatigue and extended working hours underpin the resilient growth of energy drinks and coffee
- The future
- Keys to success
- Alcoholic drinks (in-home and out-of-home)
- Now (in-home alcoholic drinks)
- Graph 52: consumer spending on in-home alcoholic drinks, 2017-23
- Now (out-of-home alcoholic drinks)
- Graph 53: consumer spending on out-of-home alcoholic drinks, 2017-23
- 'Responsible drinking' fuels shift from higher- to lower-alcohol drinks
- The evolution of consumer attitudes and tastes drives a focus on quality
- Chinese brewing – synonymous with the guochao trend
- Cross-category marketing opens up new ideas for attracting younger consumers
- The future (in-home alcoholic drinks)
- The future (out-of-home alcoholic drinks)
- Keys to success
- BPC
- Now
- Graph 54: consumer spending on BPC products, 2017-23
- The skinification trend continues to penetrate different BPC categories and lead growth
- Brands need to see skincare concepts as a standard part of product development, rather than a differentiating selling point
- The consumer focus on skin health fuels growth of the skin repair market
- Communication of diverse usage occasions is an important part of repair product innovation
- Precision skincare in the form of streamlined skincare
- Skin-condition-based segmentation drives the trend towards the customised skincare
- Domestic beauty brands accelerate their rise amid intentional spending due to outstanding product performance
- The future
- Keys to success
- OTCs and pharmaceuticals
- Now
- Graph 55: consumer spending on OTC and pharmaceuticals, 2017-23
- The yangsheng concept continues to grow in popularity among younger people
- Chronic disease concerns younger groups, driving medical devices to bring professional health analysis closer to hand and home
- The new version of the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents leads the way in the era of precision nutrition
- The future
- Keys to success
- Clothing and accessories
- Now
- Graph 56: consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2017-23
- Outlets rebound, fast fashion cools, buyer ecommerce on the rise
- The shift to leisurewear and pragmatic consumption go hand in hand to revitalise the sportswear market
- Outdoor fashion leads the way
- The future
- Keys to success
- Household care
- Now
- Graph 57: consumer spending on household care, 2017-23
- Air care products have seen significant growth thanks to improvements in the quality of home life and the incorporation of Chinese aesthetics
- Dishwashing products that are a pleasure to use are favoured by consumers
- Coordinate fragrances among laundry products to enhance product purchase appeal
- The future
- Keys to success
- Technology and communications
- Now
- Graph 58: consumer spending on technology and communications, 2017-23
- AI technology and the AI ecosystem are booming, with hardware and software applications gradually coming to fruition
- The escalating need to use technology products to manage health
- From satisfaction with function to satisfaction with value
- The future
- Keys to success
- Leisure and entertainment
- Now
- Graph 59: consumer spending on leisure and entertainment, 2017-23
- Enthusiasm for the lottery is high
- Intangible cultural heritage goes mainstream… and routine
- Sports and fitness: paying for happiness
- Mini dramas explode, bringing new audiences for brand marketing
- The future
- Keys to success
- Home
- Now
- Graph 60: consumer spending on home, 2017-23
- Demand for home appliances to get back to basics
- 'Smart lite' brings real convenience, and intuitive and transparent marketing communication can highlight practicality
- Emphasise services as a bridge to connect with consumers
- User-by-user home demands are increasingly apparent
- The future
- Keys to success
- Transport
- Now
- Graph 61: consumer spending on transport, 2017-23
- Wellness and beauty awareness reshape modern auto care services
- Changing consumption into empowerment as energy supply service systems diversify
- Get insight into pain points for specific groups and scenarios, and win consumers with the 'soft power' of ride hailing and car rental services
- The future
- Keys to success
- Holidays
- Now
- Graph 62: consumer spending on holidays, 2017-23
- Local cultural tourism bureaus are actively tapping into trends to create new names their for cities
- Younger people's focus on the pace of life brings travel trends
- The rise of 'reverse travel' and cheap and cheerful 'non-standard products' become a new highlight of tourism
- The future
- Keys to success
- Personal finance and housing
- Now
- Graph 63: forecast consumer spending on housing and finance, 2017-23
- Life insurance products are highly sought after in the era of low interest rates
- 'Insurance + healthcare' spearheads insurance industry transformation
- The future
- Keys to success
- Miscellaneous
- Now
- Graph 64: miscellaneous consumer spending, 2017-23
- From pet-loving to pet-savvy: the shift from the pet economy to the pet-friendly economy
- Ergonomic design, entertainment and companion functions are in the spotlight as age-friendliness and a human touch are emphasised
- In the era of general knowledge, hobby cultivation and inspirational content bring a blue ocean of traffic
- The future
- Keys to success
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The consumer
- Financial situation and plans
- Finances are recovering slowly
- Graph 65: current financial situation, 2016-24
- Finances continue to improve in lower-tier cities, with recovery slower in Tier 1 cities
- Graph 66: current financial situation – "I can save a considerable amount of money every month", by age, 2019-24
- Side hustles are becoming important means for consumers to broaden their incomes
- Graph 67: share of respondents with income from online part-time jobs, by age, 2022-24
- Graph 68: sources of income (proportion of respondents with that income source), 2019-24
- Savings-based financial planning is still the highest priority, while the potential for 'happy years' consumption is growing day by day
- Graph 69: financial priorities in the next 12 months – ranked "very important", 2019-24
- Graph 70: financial priorities in the next 12 months, 2024
- Consumer confidence and influencing factors
- Spending confidence recovers, but volatility remains
- Graph 71: confidence about improving their financial situation in the next 12 months, 2019-24
- Graph 72: confidence about improving their financial situation in the next three months, 2020-24
- Confidence remains stable in Tier 1 cities, while the recovery is volatile in Tier 3 and below
- Graph 73: very confident/somewhat confident about improving their financial situation in the next 12 months, by city tier, 2019-23
- The influence of macro factors on consumer confidence climbs, with cost of daily living still having the biggest impact
- Graph 74: factors influencing confidence, 2024
- Graph 75: factors influencing confidence – ranked first, 2022-24
- Spending plans
- Aiming for a relaxed life, consumers pragmatically plan the rhythm of consumption
- Graph 76: spending plans, 2024
- Consumers aged 25-39 will be the main force driving consumption growth in all categories
- Graph 77: spending plans for each category – plan to increase spending, by age, 2024
- Women are more inclined than men to spend more in all areas
- Graph 78: spending plans for each category – plan to increase spending, by gender, 2024
- Spending plans for extra money
- Travel and food are preferred for leisure spending
- Graph 79: spending plans for extra money – top 11 spending plans*, 2024
- Consumers aged 25-39 are most active in planning their spending
- Graph 80: spending plans for extra money – top 11 spending plans, by age, 2024
- In the era of mass tourism, travelling styles and needs will become more diverse
- Graph 81: spending plans for extra money – top 11 spending plans, by city tier, 2024
- Definition of quality
- Transparency and professionalism are fundamental demands for quality products
- Graph 82: definition of quality, 2014-24
- The health space still has potential, and price stability is a prerequisite for brands to deliver value for money
- Graph 83: consumers’ definition of value, 2023
- Family structure also influences people's perceptions of quality
- Graph 84: definition of quality, by living situation, 2024
- Consumers are redefining beauty
- Preferred brand archetypes
- Brand archetypes
- Images of the creator, ruler and sage are deeply rooted in people's hearts
- Graph 85: preferred brand archetypes, 2024
- Consumers are also hungry for support, love and the mental strength to face challenges
- Graph 86: preferred brand archetypes, by monthly household income, 2024
- Post-1980s and post-1990s generations are loyal to the ruler, younger consumers are partial to humorous and authentic archetypes
- Graph 87: preferred brand archetypes, by generation, 2024
- Establish a precise archetype strategy to meet consumers’ diverse needs
- Graph 88: favourite brand archetypes, by categories with planned increased spend, 2024
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Appendix 1 – methodology and abbreviations
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
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Appendix 2 – market size and forecast data
- China: total consumer spending (RMB bn), by sectors, 2023-28
- China: total year-on-year growth (%) of consumer spending, 2024-28
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