2026
8
Consumption in an Era of Divergence – The Chinese Consumer 2026
2026-06-24T10:03:28+00:00
REP4D9D8D1B_2FD1_44BD_9D8D_1B2FD124BD47
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China's consumption is shifting from scale-driven growth towards structural divergence. Consumers are reallocating their budgets, time and attention between efficiency and experience. In some scenarios, they prioritise speed, affordability and…
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Consumption in an Era of Divergence – The Chinese Consumer 2026

China's consumption is shifting from scale-driven growth towards structural divergence. Consumers are reallocating their budgets, time and attention between efficiency and experience.

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    • The Chinese Consumer annual review series
    • Categories covered in this Report
    • What you need to know
  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • Chinese consumption is shifting from broad-based growth to a new phase of structural opportunity
    • Graph 1: year-on-year growth in consumer spending by category (%), 2025-26
    • Macro developments are reshaping consumer mindsets and demand
    • Over the next five years, China’s consumer market enters a new phase of steady growth and structural focus
    • Graph 2: total consumer spending forecast (RMB billions), 2020-30
    • Graph 3: CAGR of consumer spending by category (%), 2026-30
    • Spending priorities are beginning to diverge across consumer groups
    • Graph 4: share of consumers planning to increase spending by category, by age, 2026
    • Graph 5: share of consumers planning to increase spending by category, by city tier, 2026
    • Chinese consumers are shifting between efficiency and experience in their approach to spending
    • Graph 6: consumer types by consumption mindset (%), 2026
    • Graph 7: key drivers of product experience when quality is comparable, by consumer group, 2026
    • Diverging consumer mindsets are shifting brand preferences from success narratives to emotional resonance
    • Graph 8: preferred brand archetypes, 2024-26
    • Implications for brands
  2. CONSUMER SPENDING

    • China’s consumer spending expands steadily amid uncertainty in 2025
    • Graph 9: total consumer spending and year-on-year growth, 2020-25
    • Graph 10: share of total consumer spending by category (%), 2025
    • 2026 will continue to see structural divergence in consumption
    • Graph 11: year-on-year growth in consumer spending by category (%), 2024-26
    • Essential spending led by food and drinks, alongside the experience economy led by travel and leisure, will underpin consumption in 2026
    • Graph 12: forecast consumer spending, share and year-on-year growth, 2026
    • Over the next five years, China’s consumer market enters a new phase of steady growth and structural focus
    • Graph 13: total consumer spending forecast (RMB billions), 2020-30
    • Graph 14: CAGR of consumer spending by category (%), 2026-30
  3. CHINA TODAY

    • China’s economy remains resilient in 2025 despite mounting domestic and external challenges
    • Outlook: moderate growth will become the norm
    • Rising contributions from net exports and consumption signal a continued optimisation of China’s growth structure
    • Graph 15: contributions to GDP growth by component, 2016-25
    • Employment pressures and property market adjustments continue to weigh on consumer confidence
    • Graph 16: surveyed urban unemployment rate, 2018-25
    • Graph 17: average residential property prices, 2016-25
    • Trends in population structure
    • The demographic dividend is shrinking while population ageing continues to accelerate
    • Graph 18: number of births, 2011-25
    • Graph 19: population aged 65 and above and its share, 2011-25
    • In 2025, the population aged 65 and above exceeds that aged 0-14 for the first time
    • Graph 20: population age structure, 2014-25
    • The rise of single-person households: family structures shift towards smaller and more individualised units
    • Graph 21: share of households by size, 2011-24
  4. THE CONSUMER

    • Consumer confidence and spending focus
    • Confidence in future financial improvement weakens, with sharper declines among middle- and higher-income and younger consumers
    • Graph 22: confidence in improving personal finances over the next 12 months, 2024-26
    • Graph 23: combined share of those “not very confident” or “not confident at all” about improving their personal finances over the next 12 months, 2024-26
    • Appearance gives way to experiences, as emotion and efficiency reshape consumption
    • Graph 24: consumer spending plans by category, 2026
    • Consumer intentions across categories remain subdued, although the pace of decline has eased compared with the previous year
    • Graph 25: change in the share of consumers planning to increase spending by category, 2026
    • Graph 26: change in the combined share of consumers planning to reduce spending or not spend by category, 2026
    • Amid uncertainty, at-home consumption becomes a key source of health and a sense of security
    • Age divergence intensifies: younger consumers remain active but selective, while older groups become more restrained
    • Graph 27: share of consumers planning to increase spending by category, by age, 2026
    • Graph 28: change in the share of consumers planning to increase spending, by age, 2024 vs 2026
    • Tier 1 cities continue to lead in consumption activity, while weakening confidence gradually spreads to lower-tier cities
    • Graph 29: share of consumers planning to increase spending by category, by city tier, 2026
    • Graph 30: change in the share of consumers planning to increase spending, by city tier, 2024 vs 2026
    • The pace of consumption: efficiency first vs exploratory experiences
    • Why it is important to understand the pace of consumption
    • Chinese consumers do not focus solely on function and efficiency, with most balancing practicality and experience
    • Graph 31: consumer types by consumption mindset (%), 2026
    • Higher-income consumers place greater emphasis on experience, with pronounced differences across age groups and city characteristics
    • Graph 32: segmentation of consumer attitudes by age, income and living arrangement, 2026
    • Graph 33: segmentation of consumer attitudes by city, 2026
    • Barriers to experience are not just about pace of life, with product design emerging as a key shortcoming
    • Graph 34: barriers to slowing down, 2026
    • Strengthening context and perceived value is key to engaging balanced consumers
    • Graph 35: barriers to slowing down, by consumer segment, 2026
    • When product quality is comparable, consumers are first drawn in by feel, then convinced by value and ultimately retained by detail
    • The same experience, different perceived value: strategies for different consumer segments
    • Brand image
    • From admiring success to understanding and companionship: the shift in consumer mindset behind evolving brand archetypes
    • Graph 36: preferred brand archetypes, 2024-26
    • Emotional value extends beyond product experience and must also be reinforced through brand storytelling, visual expression and brand personality
    • Graph 37: preferred brand archetypes, by consumer segment, 2026
  5. CONSUMER CATEGORIES: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

    • In-home food
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 38: in-home food consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • Private labels have moved from a peripheral role to a key growth engine for retailers
    • Graph 39: share of private labels in new packaged food launches, 2021-25
    • Graph 40: share of private labels in new product launches by category, 2024-25
    • Snacks: delivering both novelty and justifiable choice within familiar categories
    • Dairy: stop competing on nutrition metrics and shift towards value consumers can clearly perceive
    • Table foods: convenience is not replacing home cooking, but making the process more controllable
    • The future
    • Graph 41: in-home food consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Foodservice (dine-in and takeaway/delivery)
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 42: foodservice consumer spending (dine-in and takeaway/delivery), 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • Performance of key segments
    • On-premise drinks innovation: from chasing novelty to building resonance, driven by long-term sales and emotional connection
    • Graph 43: share of new on-premise tea and dairy drinks launches by launch type, 2025
    • Graph 44: distribution of collaboration types in new on-premise drinks launches (%), Q4 2025
    • The future
    • Graph 45: foodservice consumer spending forecast (dine-in and takeaway/delivery), 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Non-alcoholic drinks
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 46: non-alcoholic drinks consumer spending, 2020-25
    • The market
    • Segment performance: widening divergence across categories, with sports and electrolyte drinks and RTD tea leading growth
    • Graph 47: value sales and growth by sub-category in non-alcoholic drinks, 2025
    • Performance of key segments
    • Innovation trends: from layered functionality to everyday nutrition and cognitive support
    • The future
    • Graph 48: non-alcoholic drinks consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Alcoholic drinks (in-home and on-trade consumption)
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 49: at-home alcohol consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Graph 50: alcohol consumer spending in on-trade channels, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • Key segments
    • Innovation trends
    • The future
    • Graph 51: at-home alcohol consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Graph 52: alcohol consumer spending forecast in on-trade channels, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Beauty and personal care
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 53: beauty and personal care consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Three fundamental shifts
    • Key segments and innovation trends
    • Growth concentrates in high-frequency, essential, long-term use categories and in functionally integrated, scenario-adaptable segments
    • Graph 54: BPC ecommerce value sales and growth by sub-category (Tmall and Douyin), 2025
    • The future
    • Graph 55: beauty and personal care consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Household care
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 56: household care consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • Household cleaning market growth is led by core essentials, with strong potential in function-driven niche segments
    • Graph 57: household care ecommerce sales and growth by sub-category (Tmall and Douyin), 2025
    • Innovation trends
    • Fragrance as a core value driver, with longer-lasting performance and more sophisticated scent profiles elevating the overall experience
    • Graph 58: share of new laundry care products with long-lasting fragrance, 2021-25
    • Graph 59: average number of fragrance variants per new laundry care product, 2021-25
    • The future
    • Graph 60: household care consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Healthcare and wellness
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 61: healthcare and wellness consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • The future
    • Graph 62: healthcare and wellness consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Clothing and accessories
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 63: clothing and accessories consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • Performance of key segments and brands
    • The future
    • Graph 64: clothing and accessories consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Technology and communications
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 65: technology and communications consumer spending, 2020-25
    • In an era of rapid technological advancement, consumers are more rational in assessing whether technology genuinely delivers convenience in everyday life
    • Graph 66: knowledge and usage of AI, 2023-25
    • Graph 67: knowledge and usage of AI – use AI tools and apply them in work or daily life, by generation, 2024-26
    • AI-driven product transformation: software reshapes how products work, hardware expands usage scenarios
    • The future
    • Graph 68: technology and communications consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Home
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 69: home consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Market performance
    • The future
    • Graph 70: home consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Travel and holidays
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 71: travel and holidays consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Performance of key segments
    • The future
    • Graph 72: travel and holidays consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Leisure and entertainment
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 73: leisure and entertainment consumer spending, 2020-25
    • Trend 1: outdoor sports continue to gain momentum, redefining leisure lifestyles
    • Graph 74: sports participation rate, 2025
    • Trend 2: from content consumption to an integrated ecosystem of content × experience × scenarios
    • The future
    • Graph 75: leisure and entertainment consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Pet care
    • 2025 review
    • Graph 76: pet care consumer spending, 2015-25
    • Market performance
    • Graph 77: average monthly spending on dogs or cats (RMB), 2022 vs 2025
    • The future
    • Graph 78: pet care consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Key consumer trends
    • Opportunities
    • Transport
    • Transport consumer spending
    • Graph 79: transport consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Personal finance and housing
    • Personal finance and housing consumer spending
    • Graph 80: personal finance and housing consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
    • Other/miscellaneous
    • Other/miscellaneous consumer spending
    • Graph 81: other/miscellaneous consumer spending forecast, 2020-30
  6. APPENDIX – METHODOLOGY AND ABBREVIATIONS

    • Methodology
    • Consumer spending
    • China: total consumer spending
    • China: year-on-year growth in consumer spending
    • China today
    • China’s GDP maintained steady growth in Q1 2026
    • Graph 82: GDP and year-on-year growth rate, 2014-26
    • Retail sales growth slowed markedly from January to April
    • Graph 83: total retail sales and year-on-year growth rate, 2014-26
    • PMI remained broadly stable overall
    • Graph 84: PMI trends by manufacturing and non-manufacturing, 2022-26
    • Growth in household disposable income has eased
    • Graph 85: per capita disposable income and year-on-year growth (nominal), 2014-26
    • Graph 86: year-on-year growth in per capita disposable income (nominal), by region, 2014-26
    • The consumer
    • Financial confidence
    • Graph 87: confidence about improving financial situation in the next 12 months, 2019-26
    • Graph 88: confidence about improving financial situation in the next 12 months, by city tier – very confident and somewhat confident, 2019-26
Download Report Summary

China's consumption is shifting from scale-driven growth towards structural divergence. Consumers are reallocating their budgets, time and attention between efficiency and experience. In some scenarios, they prioritise speed, affordability and certainty. In others, they seek emotional value, richer experiences and improvements in quality of life. This divergence is reshaping not only consumption structures, but also the way brands compete. Looking ahead, success will no longer depend on controlling categories, but on owning emotional connections and usage scenarios.

Ruyi Xu, Senior Vice President of Insights, APAC

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