Looking ahead, the core competitiveness of offline retail lies in moving beyond the traditional product-led model to offer value-added services and facilities that cater to consumers’ emotional needs. By acting as third spaces integrating shopping, leisure and social interaction, retailers can offer unique experiences that are unmatched online.
Laurel Gu, Director, China Insights
Market Definitions
This Report defines offline retail as a retail model where the consumer searches for and purchases goods through offline channels, specifically including the following:
- Regular supermarkets/hypermarkets (eg Yonghui (永辉), Freshippo (盒马), Walmart)
- Premium supermarkets (ie those that mainly sell premium and imported daily consumer goods, eg Ole’, Blt)
- Paid membership supermarkets (where a membership fee must be paid before shopping, eg Sam’s Club, Costco)
- Convenience stores (eg Lawson, FamilyMart)
- Standalone brand stores/shopping centre counters (eg Huawei (华为) experience store, UNIQLO flagship)
- Fashion/lifestyle product stores (eg Miniso, KKV)
- Category-specific retail stores (eg beauty store Sephora, appliance store Suning (苏宁))
- Outlets (eg Florentia Village (佛罗伦萨小镇), Shanshan Outlets Shopping Plaza (杉杉奥特莱斯购物广场))
- Discount stores (eg Hotmaxx (好特卖), BUSY FOR YOU (零食很忙))
- Domestic duty-free stores (eg airport duty-free stores, Hainan duty-free stores)
Collapse All
-
Executive summary
- Key issues in this Report
- Definition
- What you need to know
- Opportunities for the general population: evolve from transactional venues into integrated value entities offering price, emotion and experience
- Segment opportunities: cater to the needs of Tier 1 city residents and high-income groups for quality living, emotional connection and unique experiences
- Segment opportunities: position as a place of trust, leisure venue and industry benchmark for consumers in Tier 2 and lower tier cities
- Future outlook
-
The market
- Market trends
- China’s retail market enters a stable growth phase, with offline retail rebounding from previous volatility and maintaining its core role within the retail landscape
- Graph 1: retail sales of physical goods, 2015-25
- Graph 2: YOY growth rate of physical goods retail sales, 2015-25
- Major offline retail chain formats have been recovering amidst volatility since 2023
- Graph 3: share of value sales by major retail chains above a designated size, by retail format*, 2023
- Graph 4: YOY growth rate of retail value sales of retail chains above a designated size, by retail format*, 2022-25
- Retail undergoes structural transformation as brick-and-mortar streamlining accelerates
- Graph 5: top 10 supermarkets’ retail market share (%), 2024
- Graph 6: major supermarkets’ retail sales/store count YOY growth rate, 2024
- Supermarkets, convenience stores and membership stores actively update product selection and invest in own brand innovation
- Graph 7: offline distribution channels of new products, 2015-25
- Market factors
- Macroeconomic overview
- Consumer confidence rebounds after fluctuations
- Graph 8: confidence index* for improved financial situation in the next three months, 2020-25
- Graph 9: consumer confidence in their finances improving in the coming three months, 2020-25
- The rapid rise in flagship store openings is poised to drive footfall to physical retail
- Offline and online retailing are integrating at a faster pace to upgrade the consumer experience across all scenarios
- The national consumption stimulus policy has shown significant results
- Graph 10: YOY growth rate of commodity value sales by companies above a designated size, by category, 2019-25
- Changes in family structure will continue to impact the long-term development of the retail market
- Graph 11: family structure changes*, 2002-23
- Graph 12: age distribution of marriage registrants, 2019-24
- Changes in family structure: the rising proportion of small families brings diverse offline retail shopping demand
- Changes in family structure: as the number of pet-owning households continues to grow, consumer demand for pet-friendly retail spaces is on the rise
- Graph 13: number of pet dogs and cats living in towns and cities, 2019-24
- Changes in family structure: the silver economy is here, and the age-friendly adaptation of offline stores needs to be prioritised
- Graph 14: aging population structure, 2003-24
- Market highlights
- Leverage diverse formats to counter homogeneous competition and address segmented consumer demand
- Adopt omnichannel strategies across online and offline platforms, shift market competition from price to experience
- Overseas markets: technology supports the optimisation of offline retail operations
- Overseas markets: AI shopping trolleys become helpful companions for consumers
-
Consumer insights
- Summary
- Value-for-money and experience-driven needs are reshaping the retail market
- Value-for-money and experience jointly drive demand in offline retail
- Graph 15: penetration rates of different offline stores, 2024-25
- Discount stores and fashion/lifestyle product stores provide younger people with cost-effective options and emotional value
- Graph 16: penetration of different offline stores, by age, 2025
- Outlets and paid membership supermarkets cater to higher earners looking for sensible luxury
- Graph 17: penetration of different offline stores, by monthly household income, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: evolve from a single-function venue for transactions to a comprehensive value entity integrating low prices, emotional engagement and exclusive experiences
- Fresh grocery, food and alcohol retain a competitive advantage in offline retail
- Graph 18: retail channel preferences, by category, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: enhance the fresh grocery shopping experience
- Graph 19: number of categories preferred for online/offline purchases, by monthly household income, 2025
- Graph 20: % of consumers who prefer offline purchases, by monthly household income, 2025
- Consumers’ expectations for offline stores are gradually shifting towards product trials and shared experiences with friends and family
- Graph 21: purpose for visiting offline stores, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: reinforce stores’ emotional attributes – social interaction and family companionship
- Graph 22: purpose of visiting offline stores – socialising with friends or family, by demographics, 2025
- Diversify business models to meet diverse consumer demands
- Offline shopping habits vary significantly across cities, retailers should adopt targeted business strategies
- Customer motivations for visiting offline stores vary slightly across retail formats
- Graph 23: reason for visiting offline stores, by retailer types shopped at in the last six months, 2025
- Discount stores should focus on product selection in their competition strategies
- Graph 24: reason for visiting offline stores, by retailer types shopped at in the last six months, 2025
- Leverage influencer marketing and pop-up events to drive outlet footfall
- Graph 25: reason for visiting offline stores, by retailer types shopped at in the last six months, 2025
- New-generation outlets are becoming travel destinations
- Fashion/lifestyle product stores tap into the demand for relaxation and stress relief
- Graph 26: reason for visiting offline stores, by retailer types shopped at in the last six months, 2025
- Customers of paid membership supermarkets are particularly focused on exclusive benefits
- Graph 27: reason for visiting offline stores, by retailer types shopped at in the last six months, 2025
- Product trial privileges and attentive in-store services drive paid membership growth
- Graph 28: motivation to become a member of a paid membership retailer, 2025
- Tier 1 city residents and high-income consumers want immersive shopping spaces
- Retail property in Tier 1 cities: focus on renovating existing property and innovative breakthroughs
- Tier 1 cities and high-income consumers place particular value on the interactivity offline shopping
- High-income consumers want social spaces that integrate leisure and cultural elements into an immersive and interactive environment
- Graph 29: attractive experiences and services in offline stores, by monthly household income, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: provide professional and personalised services
- Graph 30: attractive exclusive offline store experiences, by monthly household income, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: build community-oriented social hubs
- Graph 31: participation in social activities in the last 12 months, by monthly household income, 2025
- Apart from interactive experiences, the store environment, design and ambiance are also crucial
- Graph 32: attitudes towards offline retail, by demographic, 2025
- Consumer preferences for offline store styles vary significantly depending on who they are with
- Graph 33: offline store style preferences, by companion type, 2025
- When shopping with children, high-income families prefer offline stores with cartoon, dreamy and pet styles
- Graph 34: offline store style preferences when visiting with children, by monthly household income, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail: leverage cartoon IPs to attract families with children
- The trust economy in Tier 2 and lower tier cities holds tremendous potential
- Currently, retail market growth is mainly driven by Tier 2 and lower tier cities
- Graph 35: total retail sales of consumer goods, by city tier, 2024
- Graph 36: year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, by city tier, 2024
- Consumers in Tier 2 and lower tier cities prefer to shop offline
- Graph 37: number of categories preferred for online/offline purchases, by city tier, 2025
- Graph 38: proportion of consumers who prefer offline purchases, by city tier, 2025
- Physical stores in Tier 2 and lower tier cities act as an endorsement of brand capability and credibility
- Graph 39: attitude towards offline retail, by city tier, 2025
- Upgrade offline retail in Tier 2 and lower tier cities: focus on daily household needs and make shopping more experiential and convenient
- Upgrade offline retail in Tier 2 and lower tier cities: introduce refined retail formats
- Graph 40: attractive experiences and services in offline stores, by city tier, 2025
-
Appendix – methodology and abbreviations
- Methodology
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Research methodology: confidence index calculation formula
- Abbreviations
Market Intelligence Made Easier With Mintel
The first Mintel Market Intelligence report was published over 50 years ago. Since then, we have provided our unique insights and understanding of consumers, innovation and global markets to thousands of customers worldwide. Here’s why our customers rely on Mintel:
- Gain a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the market: Mintel reports blend consumer research, market forecasts, product innovation tracking, and competitive analysis, allowing businesses to see every angle of their industry and identify new opportunities quickly.
- Make decisions with confidence, grounded in robust data: Each report draws on up-to-date, reliable information from trusted sources and industry experts, ensuring your strategies are based on solid evidence rather than speculation.
- Benefit from expert analysis and practical recommendations: Mintel’s reports are written by experienced analysts who interpret complex data and provide clear, actionable insights you can trust to guide your next moves.
- Stay ahead with actionable intelligence on market trends and consumer behaviour: By combining fresh research with long-term market monitoring, our reports help businesses anticipate changes and adapt strategically. So you’re prepared to make informed decisions and drive growth.
What goes into a Mintel Market Intelligence Report?
Curious about how a Market Intelligence report comes together? We like to think of it as building a detailed puzzle. We start with individual pieces: data from consumers, market statistics, industry trends, and online conversations. Then our expert analysts add world-class human insight and industry knowledge. The pieces are assembled to reveal a clear, comprehensive picture of a market.
The Four Pillars of Our Research
We use a combination of four main research methods when creating our reports, each adding a valuable perspective:
- Consumer Research: Direct surveys with real people, giving us clear, current insights into what people think and do.
- Desk Research: In-depth review of trusted data sources. We use this rich database, plus powerful internal tools that track new products and market sizes, to detect trends and guide forecasts.
- Trade Research: Insights from conversations with industry experts. Their real-world experience helps us understand what’s happening behind the scenes.
- Brand and Social Media Research: Analysis of online opinions and trends. This lets us spot trends, measure brand sentiment, and capture feedback in real time, adding further depth to our research.
Bringing It All Together
Each of these four pillars provides a different piece of the puzzle. Consumer research tells us what customers think, desk research provides the factual framework, trade research offers an insider’s view, and social media analysis reveals public sentiment.
Our expert analysts are skilled in weaving these diverse data streams together. They apply a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to uncover the deeper story, connecting the dots to deliver clear, actionable insights. This comprehensive, multi-layered process is how we transform raw data into a market intelligence report you can trust to inform your most important business decisions.
For a closer look at a Mintel Market Intelligence Report, take a look at the sample PDF report below:
Please Note: All of the figures, graphs, and tables in this sample report have been redacted.
£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or invoice (net 30 payment terms)
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF, Powerpoint and Excel Databook straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Interactive databook included
Focus on the data that matters most to you with a customisable databook avaliable on our platform
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
Mintel is really good for getting a handle on a particular category quickly. If we are working on a new business pitch in an area we don’t have much experience in, it’s a brilliant way to get up to speed with what’s going on, what’s changing and what the key trends are in any category.
It’s very rare now that anyone will plough through a 200-page report – that’s why the summaries are really useful. We know they are backed up by a lot of detail, so if you need to go into something in more depth you know the information will be all there for you.
Pauline Robson, Managing Partner, Mediacom
There is no question that Mintel is the go-to resource for the best quality market research, but I did not think it was an affordable option for Abacus Marketing to consider. As a small marketing agency, we only work with a few new clients each year.
However, we have a very high-end consultative approach to our work, so we really do need a partner like Mintel to provide the big agency experience we are always aiming to deliver. Our clients come from an incredibly diverse range of industry sectors, so we obviously need access to market research reports from a very wide spectrum of marketplaces – and that is precisely what we got.
Stephen Taylor-Brown, Managing Director, Abacus
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.
Ngozi Ngonadi-Nkwoji, Senior Marketing Manager, Amazon
One of the biggest challenges we face is the need to get smart on a business or category real quick.
We are talking to clients who live and breathe their category every day and the expectation is that we will be able to get caught up very quickly, and bring the thinking that can help them.
We need to do that often in a matter of days, so it’s not a small ask. Mintel gives us a very articulate view of category conditions and does so at the speed we need it.
Jeff White, Business Development Director, Deutsch
We have such a great working relationship with Mintel on lots of different levels. As an insight partner, they have helped us to develop our business planning in specific categories as well as supporting our creative process but they’ve also been super helpful with facilitating our events in their inspirational offices near St Paul’s.
They’re an innovative company, with a client-focused team that always delivers.
Abby Carvosso, Group Managing Director, Bauer Media Group
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
