This Market Dynamics report features market data extracted from Mintel’s China Yogurt Market Report 2025. Giving you direct access to key market information and analysis from our category experts. This report is ideal for those looking for a topline summary of the China yogurt market. The full report is available to purchase here.
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Market dynamics
- Market size and forecast
- Key market indicators
- Yogurt retail volume may have bottomed out, with stabilisation expected in the future
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast of retail volume sales of yogurt, 2020-30
- Decline in yogurt retail prices has narrowed, and chilled yogurt will help boost the category’s retail sales
- Graph 2: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of yogurt, 2020-30
- The growth of Lactobacillus drinks is sluggish, and the category’s development is stagnant
- Graph 3: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-30
- Market segments
- The ambient yogurt market continues to contract
- Graph 4: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of ambient yogurt, 2020-30
- Structural upgrade promotes the revival of the chilled yogurt category
- Graph 5: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of chilled yogurt, 2020-30
- Market factors
- Chinese macroeconomic indicators (1H 2025)
- The development of yogurt is receiving favourable policy support
- The revised national standard for fermented milk broadens the space for product innovation
- Seize growth opportunities in private labels and discount channels
- Graph 6: yogurt purchase channels, 2024
- Changes in consumption
- Yogurt penetration has peaked; increasing frequency is key
- Graph 7: consumption frequency of dairy products, 2025
- Chilled yogurt has more potential
- Graph 8: changes in high-frequency consumption proportion and penetration rate of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 9: frequency of consumption of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2025
- Urban consumers’ preferences for yogurt are becoming more divided, and Lactobacillus drinks need to focus on penetrating lower-tier markets
- Graph 10: change in the consumption penetration rates of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 11: change in proportions of high-frequency consumers of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- Growth of freshly made yogurt is cooling down; packaged yogurt can win the market by tapping into meal accompaniment scenarios and families
- Graph 12: penetration rate of freshly made yogurt, 2024 vs 2025
- Yogurt loses favour among younger people: insufficient perceived healthiness, price and taste cannot compete with rivals
- Graph 13: proportion of high frequency consumption of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by age, 2025
- Prices for ambient yogurt have dropped significantly, while pricing strategies for chilled spoonable yogurt have diverged
- Graph 14: price range of yogurt (consumers aged 18-49), 2025
- Graph 15: price range of yogurt (consumers aged 18-49), 2021
- Greek yogurt has become mainstream, while niche categories are showing potential for premiumisation
- Graph 16: consumption penetration rate of special types of yogurt, yogurt price range, 2025
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What consumers want and why
- Guts benefits and nourishment are equally important: infuse new communication concepts into essential nutrition and digestive functions
- As digestive health benefits are less well-known, yoghurt needs to become a ‘long-term life companion’ by telling consumers that there are no downsides to eating more
- Graph 17: barriers to the consumption of gut health products, 2025
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New product trends
- Overview of new product launches
- Lactobacillus drink market share rebounds despite limited innovation momentum
- Graph 18: share of sub-categories in new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
- Graph 19: share of categories in new dairy products, 2020-25
- Innovation in chilled products is increasing, and spoonable yogurt sees continuous high growth
- Graph 20: new Lactobacillus drinks by type, 2020-25
- Graph 21: new yogurt products by category, 2020-25
- Companies and brands
- New product launch concentration decreases, Mengniu, New Hope and Junlebao accelerate innovation
- Chilled yogurt has become the main driver for the rise of private labels
- Graph 22: private labels’ share of new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
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Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast – yogurt
- Market size and forecast – Lactobacillus drinks
- Market segments – ambient yogurt
- Market segments – chilled yogurt
- Consumer survey questions
- Consumer data: consumption occasions for yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks
- Graph 23: consumption occasions for yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks (NET), 2025
- Methodology: consumer survey
- TURF analysis methodology
- Methodology: Flavourscape AI
- Abbreviations
About Mintel Market Dynamics
Mintel’s Market Dynamics reports are built from Mintel’s robust market size data. We pair these comprehensive market statistics with unparalleled market intelligence to offer deep insights into the dynamic landscapes of key markets across the world.
Created by our team of expert analysts, Market Dynamics connects the dots between market forecasts, consumer sentiment, and brand innovations to give you the full story of how your market is evolving and what your next move should be.
How can Market Dynamics help your brand?
- Gain immediate strategic clarity with quality market data and forecasts.
- Understand the ‘why’ behind industry trends with world-class human insight.
- Plot your next move with analysis of the competitive landscape and product launch activity.
- Uncover opportunities and unlock your growth potential with analyst recommendations.
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