China Yogurt Market Report 2026
Yogurt moves towards value redefinition, with growth driven by easy-to-absorb nutrients and texture innovation.
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- Definitions
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size and forecast
- Market factors and consumer insights
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THE MARKET
- Market size and forecast
- Yogurt market reverses its revenue decline through structural optimisation
- Graph 1: retail value sales of yogurt and best- and worst-case forecasts, 2021-31
- Yogurt demand stabilises after bottoming out, but long-term growth still depends on broadening the consumer base
- Graph 2: retail volume sales of yogurt and best- and worst-case forecasts, 2021-31
- Yogurt segments: ambient will contract while chilled powers growth
- Graph 3: retail value sales of ambient yogurt and best- and worst-case forecasts, 2021-31
- Graph 4: retail value sales of chilled yogurt and best- and worst-case forecasts, 2021-31
- Traditional demand continues to contract as lactobacillus drinks settle into low-level consolidation
- Graph 5: retail value sales* of lactobacillus drinks and best- and worst-case forecasts, 2021-31
- Market factors
- As prices stabilise, consumers place greater emphasis on value alignment
- Graph 6: year-on-year growth in dairy consumption indicators, 2021-26
- Yogurt consumption is more than downtrading: chilled yogurt enters a phase of polarised growth, with mid-priced products under the greatest pressure
- Graph 7: trading up and down in yogurt and lactobacillus drinks consumption, 2025
- Graph 8: trading up and down in yogurt and lactobacillus drinks consumption, 2026
- Price differentiation drives the reassessment of value, with clear health benefits receiving more attention
- Graph 9: key factors when purchasing food, 2023-26
- Concentrated fermented milk standards establish measurable quality benchmarks, steering yogurt value growth back to product fundamentals
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Yogurt consumption patterns diverge, prompting brands to convert frequent consumption into active purchasing
- Chilled drinkable yogurt leads the way, with yogurt consumption outperforming lactobacillus drinks
- Graph 10: frequency of consumption of yogurt and lactobacillus drinks, 2026
- Graph 11: changes in proportion of high consumption frequency and penetration rate of yogurt and lactobacillus drinks, 2025 vs 2026
- High-frequency consumption does not always translate into purchases: chilled yogurt needs to convert frequent consumers into buyers
- Graph 12: yogurt and lactobacillus drinks consumption vs purchase penetration rate, 2026
- Graph 13: purchase rate of yogurt and lactobacillus drinks, by consumption frequency, 2026
- Purchasing channels decentralise; proximity touchpoints become key to self-purchase conversion
- Graph 14: yogurt and lactobacillus drinks purchasing channels, 2026
- From regular consumption to proactive purchasing: expand individualised self-purchase occasions for chilled yogurt
- Graph 15: channels for purchasing chilled plain milk/yogurt, by frequency of chilled yogurt consumption (NET), 2026
- Make easy-to-absorb protein the foundation, using science-backed nutrient combinations and streamlined formulations to deliver meaningful nutritional value
- High protein has become the baseline, hinting at the need for a clearer nutritional positioning
- Graph 16: purposes of yogurt consumption – top three options, 2025
- Easy protein absorption is not yet exclusively associated with yogurt but offers potential for trade-ups
- Graph 17: perception of protein in dairy products, 2026
- Use fermentation evidence to substantiate easy-to-absorb yogurt protein
- Use easy absorption to complement nutritional addition and lead functional upgrade with bioactive components
- Graph 18: interest in added nutrients in yogurt, by perception of yogurt protein, 2026
- Probiotics address diverse needs, while fibre extends reach through complementary nutrition
- Multi-nutrient blends appeal to consumers, and scientifically based formulations shape product value
- Graph 19: added nutrients in yogurt, by added nutrients in yogurt, 2026
- Multi-nutrient blends for specific needs: highly engaged consumers seek clear ingredient combinations
- Build a stronger case for nutritional additions while taking a more selective approach to formulation modifications
- Graph 20: free-from claims in yogurt, 2026
- Fat management is more than fat reduction: optimising fat composition can unlock new health opportunities
- Graph 21: yogurt and lactobacillus drinks fat content consideration, 2026
- Quantify specific fatty acids and build differentiated value through fermentation, fortification and dairy sourcing
- From need-based products to dynamic product matching: making product portfolios ready for precision nutrition systems
- Reduce pairing threshold to reconstruct the yogurt consumption experience with base combinations
- Direct enjoyment and mixing with fruits and vegetables form the two mainstream ways to consume yogurt
- Yogurt offers both the value of being ready-to-eat and versatile for pairing, and brands need to make the fusion experience more effortless
- Graph 22: ways of consuming yogurt, 2026
- High-frequency consumers value everyday convenience, while low-frequency consumers prefer DIY experiences
- Graph 23: ways of consuming yogurt, by frequency of consumption of yogurt, 2026
- Yogurt bases and mix-ins share a common sensory hierarchy and texture language
- Graph 24: preferred yogurt base texture, 2026
- Graph 25: preferred yogurt mix-in texture, 2024
- Smoothness is the baseline texture for yogurt, while texture upgrades need to move beyond richness towards structural innovation
- Graph 26: preferred yogurt base texture, by yogurt consumption trading up or down, 2026
- Let texture serve the occasion: use tender, refreshing textures for meal accompaniment and light bubbles to carry nutritional fortification
- Shift from added mix-ins to textured dairy-base structures, supplementing the mainstream texture with curd granules
- Build structural appeal through texture combinations, with a focus on base texture variation
- Let the dairy base drive the texture experience, with mix-ins providing the finishing touch
- Graph 27: appealing yogurt texture layers, 2026
- Dairy base combinations drive texture exploration, allowing brands to create layers through reinforcement and contrast
- Graph 28: preferred yogurt base textures, by preferred yogurt texture layering, 2026
- Base combinations can move from static pairings to dynamic transformation
- Familiar flavours lower the barrier to exploration, while emerging flavours create differentiation through blending
- Graph 29: drinkable yogurt flavours of interest, by yogurt texture layer, 2026
- Graph 30: spoonable yogurt flavours of interest, by yogurt texture layer, 2026
- From side-by-side flavour pairings to self-mixing: packaging formats can support flavour combination exploration
- Build value tiers within the segment as concentrated fermented milk standards evolve
- Greek yogurt has become mainstream, while dry yogurt is expanding rapidly
- Concentrated yogurt is diversifying rapidly: Greek yogurt is becoming mainstream, dry yogurt is surging, while Icelandic yogurt struggles to convert awareness into purchases
- Graph 31: penetration rate of different types of concentrated yogurt, 2023-26
- Graph 32: online* value sales and year-on-year growth rates of different types of concentrated yogurt, 2025-26
- Greek yogurt goes mainstream, dry yogurt continues to commercialise, while Icelandic yogurt still lacks supply and visibility on social media
- Graph 33: proportion of different types of concentrated yogurt in new yogurt products, 2021-26
- Graph 34: mentions of different types of concentrated yogurt on social media*, 2024-26
- Richness and a thick texture provide a common foundation, but each concentrated yogurt type must leverage its distinctive profile to win a place in consumers’ baskets
- Graph 35: perceptions of different types of concentrated yogurt, 2026
- The premium halo is fading for Greek and Icelandic styles, but Greek yogurt has already established a clear high-protein image
- Graph 36: perception of Greek yogurt and Icelandic yogurt – Tier 1 city consumers aged 20-49, 2017 vs 2026
- Industry standards will drive clearer differentiation of Greek yogurt by processing method and protein source
- Graph 37: trends in added milk proteins in new Greek yogurt products, share of new products vs overall protein content, 2023-26
- Greek yogurt embodies mainstream value, while Icelandic yogurt needs to transform its place-of-origin culture into product experiences
- Icelandic yogurt can lower the barrier to consumption with a more appealing mouthfeel
- Dry yogurt gains initial awareness through Greek yogurt, but needs genuine differentiation to establish specialised value
- ‘Dry-thick’ delivers distinctiveness, but a lighter structure can improve the eating experience
- Graph 38: preferred yogurt base texture, by concentrated yogurt consumed, 2026
- Enrich dry yogurt through nutritional additions and boost engagement with room for DIY
- Graph 39: interest in added nutrients in yogurt, by concentrated yogurt consumed, 2026
- From shared richness to differentiated growth: each concentrated yogurt type needs its own value story
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NEW PRODUCT TRENDS
- Innovation resources in the dairy sector are leaning towards flavoured milk, while supply within yogurt is showing signs of recovery
- Graph 40: share of new dairy product launches, by category, 2023-26
- Graph 41: sub-categories in new yogurt and lactobacillus drinks, 2023-26
- The chilled format inherits innovation in fermented dairy products, while ambient lactobacillus drinks are investing in non-dairy bases
- Graph 42: new yogurt products by category, 2023-26
- Graph 43: new lactobacillus drinks by storage type, 2023-26
- High-protein claims lose momentum as protein becomes a foundational marker of product quality
- Graph 44: high/added protein claims in new yogurt products, by sub-category, 2023-26
- Graph 45: average protein content in yogurt, by sub-category, 2023-26
- Protein messaging varies by format, with spoonable yogurt building its advantage through actual protein density
- Chilled yogurt leads clean-label development, while ambient yogurt has room to better align with consumer expectations
- Graph 46: free-from claims in new product launches in ambient yogurt (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Graph 47: free-from claims in new product launches in chilled yogurt (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Clean formulations are moving from 'low in additives' to verifiable and explainable quality upgrades
- A shift from being sugar-free to refined sugar control: brands can balance palatability with glycaemic management
- Graph 48: sugar content consideration for spoonable yogurt, 2024 vs 2026
- Graph 49: sugar-related claims in new yogurt products, by sub-category, 2023-26
- Drinkable yogurt should strengthen reduced-fat messaging, while spoonable yogurt can cater to diverse needs through fat-content tiering
- Graph 50: low/no/reduced fat claims in new yogurt products, by sub-category, 2023-26
- Graph 51: average fat content of new yogurt products, by sub-category, 2023-26
- Sugar and fat reduction become more evidence-based through ingredients, metrics and quantified levels
- Shifting from a base silky texture to a tangible content sensation, yogurt texture innovation is accelerating its diversification
- Graph 52: top ten textures in new drinkable yogurt products, 2023-26
- Graph 53: top ten textures in new spoonable yogurt products, 2023-26
- Strengthen the selling points with dairy content structure and craftsmanship features
- Fruit flavour innovation remains concentrated, with dessert flavours and distinctive pairings offering growth opportunities
- Graph 54: flavours in new drinkable yogurt launches (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Graph 55: flavours in new spoonable yogurt launches (2023-26) vs consumer interest (2026)
- Drinkable yogurt can expand flavour pairings through dessert, spice and herb notes, while spoonable yogurt can use floral flavours to unite multiple taste profiles
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APPENDIX
- Market size and forecast – yogurt
- Market size and forecast – lactobacillus drinks
- Market segments – ambient yogurt
- Market segments – chilled yogurt
- Consumer data: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels
- Graph 56: perceptions of dairy product purchase channels, 2026
- Methodology: consumer survey
- Methodology: TURF analysis
- Methodology: market forecast
- Abbreviations
Yogurt moves towards value redefinition, with growth driven by easy-to-absorb nutrients and texture innovation.
Cara Liu, Principal Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
This report examines the development trends of the yogurt and lactobacillus drinks retail market in China, as well as consumer habits in purchasing and consuming yogurt and lactobacillus drinks and the product features they are interested in, providing a reference for marketing and product innovation.
Packaged yogurt studied in this report refers to all categories covered by the National Food Safety Standard GB 19302-2010 Fermented Milk, with a protein content of not less than 2.3g/100g; packaged lactobacillus drinks refer to fermented milk beverages (yogurt drinks) and lactobacillus drinks defined under GB/T 21732-2008 Milk Beverages, with a protein content of less than 2.3g/100g. The category names in the report are defined as follows:
- Ambient yogurt: fermented milk that has been heat-treated after fermentation. In the Chinese market, ambient yogurt is usually sold at room temperature in a drinkable format, and does not need a spoon to be eaten.
- Chilled yogurt: fermented milk that has not undergone heat treatment after fermentation and contains no fewer than 1 × 106 CFU/g(mL) of lactic acid bacteria. It is typically sold in refrigerated cabinets. In the Chinese market, chilled yogurt mainly comes in two formats: drinkable yogurt, which can be consumed directly or through a straw, and spoonable yogurt, which is typically eaten with a spoon.
- Ambient lactobacillus drinks: pasteurised (non-living bacteria) type fermented milk-containing drinks and pasteurised (non-living bacteria) type lactobacillus drinks, usually sold at room temperature.
- Chilled lactobacillus drinks: unpasteurised (live bacteria) type fermented dairy-containing drinks and unpasteurised (live bacteria) type lactobacillus drinks, with Lactobacillus count not less than 1×106 CFU/g(mL), typically sold in refrigerated cabinets.
Market size for yogurt and lactobacillus drinks consists of the value sales/volume sales of packaged goods across all retail channels, including direct sales.
Mintel categorised yogurt or lactobacillus drinks consumers based on their consumption frequency as follows:
- High-frequency consumers: consume once a day or more;
- Medium-frequency consumers: 1–6 times per week;
- Low-frequency consumers: 2–3 times per month or once a month or less;
- Non-consumers: have not consumed in the last six months.
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