Yogurt needs to position itself as a long-term everyday companion. Deliver peace of mind and joy in daily life through essential nutrition and digestive health benefits, probiotic synergy, scenario experiences and emotional resonance.
Cara Liu, Principal Analyst, China Insights
Market Definitions
This report examines the development trends of the yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks retail market in China, as well as consumer habits in purchasing and consuming yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks and the product features they are interested in, providing a reference for marketing and product innovation.
Packaged yogurt studied in this report refers to all categories covered by the National Food Safety Standard GB 19302-2010 Fermented Milk, with a protein content of not less than 2.3g/100g; packaged Lactobacillus drinks refer to fermented milk beverages (yogurt drinks) and Lactobacillus drinks defined under GB/T 21732-2008 Milk Beverages, with a protein content of less than 2.3g/100g. The category names in the report are defined as follows:
- Ambient yogurt: fermented milk that has been heat-treated after fermentation. Ambient yogurt in China is usually sold at room temperature and in a drinkable format, which does not need a spoon to be eaten.
- Chilled yogurt: fermented milk that hasn’t been heat-treated after fermentation, containing at least 1×106 CFU/g(mL) of Lactobacillus, usually sold in refrigerated shelves. Chilled yogurt in China mainly comes in two formats: drinkable yogurt, which can be consumed directly or with a straw; and spoonable yogurt, which usually needs to be eaten with a spoon.
- Ambient Lactobacillus drinks: pasteurised (non-living bacteria) type fermented milk-containing drinks and pasteurised (non-living bacteria) type Lactobacillus drinks, usually sold at room temperature.
- Chilled Lactobacillus drinks: unpasteurised (live bacteria) type fermented dairy-containing drinks and unpasteurised (live bacteria) type Lactobacillus drinks, with Lactobacillus count not less than 1×106 CFU/g(mL), typically sold in refrigerated cabinets.
Mintel categorised yogurt or Lactobacillus drinks consumers based on their consumption frequency as follows:
- Consumers who consume yogurt or Lactobacillus drinks once a day or more are considered high frequency consumers
- Consumers who consume yogurt or Lactobacillus drink 1-6 times a week are considered medium frequency consumers
- Consumers who consume yogurt or Lactobacillus drink 2-3 times per month or once per month or less are considered low frequency consumers
- Those who have not consumed any in the last six months is considered non-consumers
Collapse All
-
Executive summary
- Key topics covered in this Report
- Definitions
- What you need to know
- Market opportunities
- Innovation drivers
- Anchor in the foundation of digestive health benefits and build a moat of essential nutrition
- Synergistic benefits drive probiotic consumption demand; yogurt is a good choice for nutritional benefits
- Satisfy younger people’s cravings and emphasise the emotional experience brought by texture
- What we think
-
Market dynamics
- Market size and forecast
- Key market indicators
- Yogurt retail volume may have bottomed out, with stabilisation expected in the future
- Graph 1: best- and worst-case forecast of retail volume sales of yogurt, 2020-30
- Decline in yogurt retail prices has narrowed, and chilled yogurt will help boost the category’s retail sales
- Graph 2: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of yogurt, 2020-30
- The growth of Lactobacillus drinks is sluggish, and the category’s development is stagnant
- Graph 3: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-30
- Market segments
- The ambient yogurt market continues to contract
- Graph 4: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of ambient yogurt, 2020-30
- Structural upgrade promotes the revival of the chilled yogurt category
- Graph 5: best- and worst-case forecast of retail value sales of chilled yogurt, 2020-30
- Market factors
- Chinese macroeconomic indicators (1H 2025)
- The development of yogurt is receiving favourable policy support
- The revised national standard for fermented milk broadens the space for product innovation
- Seize growth opportunities in private labels and discount channels
- Graph 6: yogurt purchase channels, 2024
- Changes in consumption
- Yogurt penetration has peaked; increasing frequency is key
- Graph 7: consumption frequency of dairy products, 2025
- Chilled yogurt has more potential
- Graph 8: changes in high-frequency consumption proportion and penetration rate of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 9: frequency of consumption of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2025
- Urban consumers’ preferences for yogurt are becoming more divided, and Lactobacillus drinks need to focus on penetrating lower-tier markets
- Graph 10: change in the consumption penetration rates of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- Graph 11: change in proportions of high-frequency consumers of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by city tier, 2024 vs 2025
- Growth of freshly made yogurt is cooling down; packaged yogurt can win the market by tapping into meal accompaniment scenarios and families
- Graph 12: penetration rate of freshly made yogurt, 2024 vs 2025
- Yogurt loses favour among younger people: insufficient perceived healthiness, price and taste cannot compete with rivals
- Graph 13: proportion of high frequency consumption of yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, by age, 2025
- Prices for ambient yogurt have dropped significantly, while pricing strategies for chilled spoonable yogurt have diverged
- Graph 14: price range of yogurt (consumers aged 18-49), 2025
- Graph 15: price range of yogurt (consumers aged 18-49), 2021
- Greek yogurt has become mainstream, while niche categories are showing potential for premiumisation
- Graph 16: consumption penetration rate of special types of yogurt, yogurt price range, 2025
-
What consumers want and why
- Starting from consumer demand, an in-depth analysis of opportunities in the yogurt market
- Guts benefits and nourishment are equally important: infuse new communication concepts into essential nutrition and digestive functions
- Anchor in the foundation of digestive health benefits and build a moat of essential nutrition
- ‘Aid digestion’ demand cools down, while ‘increase appetite’ and ‘promote absorption’ emerge as reasons for consumption
- Graph 17: purpose of yogurt consumption – digestion related (consumers aged 18-49), 2021 vs 2025
- Graph 18: purpose of dairy product consumption – to improve digestion, 2023-25
- Digestive health-related claims remain mainstream, but their room for premiumisation is limited
- Graph 19: interest in functional claims for yogurt, 2025
- As digestive health benefits are less well-known, yoghurt needs to become a ‘long-term life companion’ by telling consumers that there are no downsides to eating more
- Graph 20: barriers to the consumption of gut health products, 2025
- Stomach health could become a new selling point in digestive health
- Graph 21: purpose of dairy product consumption – nourishing the stomach, 2023-25
- Stomach-nourishing function helps to attract consumers who use yogurt as a meal accompaniment
- Graph 22: dairy product consumption occasions – lunch/dinner, 2024-25
- Yogurt’s nutritional advantages are similar to those of milk and it is more popular for supplementing specific nutrients
- Graph 23: protein and calcium claims and average content in new dairy products, 2024-25
- Graph 24: purpose of dairy product consumption – nutrition, 2023-25
- High protein content is a must in yogurt; ‘fortified’ and ‘active’ claims help with premium pricing, and the premium segment values natural nutrition
- Graph 25: factors for purchasing chilled yogurt – nutrition, 2023
- Graph 26: premiumisation opportunities for yogurt – protein related, 2025
- Supplementing calcium is not the core requirement, but the premium market is more interested in paying for it
- Quality of milk sources is emphasised, and milk from designated ranches helps cover a wider range of people
- Graph 27: reasons for repurchasing chilled white milk – milk source related, 2024
- Graph 28: opportunities for premiumising yogurt – milk source related, 2025
- Become the nutritional choice for breakfast, with ambient yogurt solidifying its central position
- Graph 29: consumption occasions for dairy products – breakfast, 2024-25
- Balance nutrition upgrade with price expectations: ‘ambient yogurt for breakfast’ is expected to overcome the growth dilemma
- Healthy inside and out: upgrade the long-term health benefits based on probiotics and better nutrition
- Synergistic benefits drive probiotic consumption demand, and yogurt can become the best carrier
- Graph 30: interest in probiotics-related information – top four, 2025
- Holistic health upgrade: the demand for multiple health benefits drives the positioning of a long-term life companion
- Graph 31: interest in functional claims for yogurt, 2025
- Graph 32: understanding of probiotic functions, 2025
- Yogurt can respond to the comprehensive needs of controlling the ‘three highs’ and managing weight with probiotic plus formulations
- Packaged yogurt should innovate in sugar reduction
- Graph 33: proportion of products using low/no/reduced sugar claims or containing no added sugars in new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
- Graph 34: sugar content preference for purchasing spoonable yogurt, 2024
- Yogurt seizes the mindshare of meal replacements, and the on-premise category leads the race
- Graph 35: consumption purposes of yogurt – meal replacements/snacking, by types of yogurt consumed at medium-to-high frequency*, 2025
- Graph 36: reasons for consuming on-premise tea and dairy drinks – meal replacements/energy, 2025
- Meal replacement yogurt is shifting towards scientific nutrition
- From ingredient efficacy to scenario innovation, yogurt’s beauty economy value is accelerating
- Complete the nutrition offering with plant ingredients; fruit and vegetable yogurt must leverage differentiated positioning to open up a new market
- Graph 37: proportion of fruit and vegetable mixed flavour products in new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
- Expand consumer perception of probiotic benefits and expand into brain and emotional health
- Graph 38: important factors when purchasing probiotic products (NET), by health issue that they believe probiotics can address, Jan 2025
- Brain health: emphasise functional components beyond probiotics and focus on milk-based and other external sources
- Ambient yogurt has the potential to compete in the sleep support market, with stomach nourishing and emotional health components being key
- Graph 39: consumption occasions for dairy products – before going to bed at night, 2024-25
- Tap into the workplace emotional economy: pamper workers with stress-relieving and refreshing effects
- Graph 40: snack consumption scenarios (dessert cup* daily consumers vs sweet snack daily consumers), 2025
- Infuse yogurt puddings with nutritional goodness to attract younger people and premium consumers
- Graph 41: consumption occasions (NET), yogurt pudding consumers vs overall consumers, 2025
- Enjoy guilt-free deliciousness: amplify experimental mouthfeel and fun experiences
- Satisfy younger people’s need to stop cravings, boost leisure consumption
- Graph 42: consumption purposes, yogurt vs non-alcoholic drinks, 2025
- In leisure settings, the dual needs for snacking and meal accompaniment bring opportunities for yogurt mini meals
- Graph 43: occasions for the consumption of dairy – having leisure activities*, 2024-25
- Chilled yogurt can be integrated into the on-premise experience with continuous innovation in mix-in combinations
- The importance of yogurt texture has significantly increased, with a rich and thick mouthfeel becoming the perceived quality standard
- Graph 44: factors for purchasing chilled yogurt – taste/texture, 2023
- Graph 45: premiumisation opportunities for yogurt – taste/texture, 2025
- Go viral with texture: niche yogurt types provide new ideas for category upgrades
- Graph 46: penetration of special types of yogurt, by types of yogurt consumed at medium-and-high frequency, 2025
- Graph 47: premiumisation opportunities for yogurt – taste/texture, by penetration of special types of yogurt, 2025
- Unusual experiences for emotional value premiumisation
- Graph 48: mentions of yogurt bowls and dry yogurt on social media*, 2024
- Embracing the homemade yogurt trend, dairy brands can transform into lifestyle co-creators
-
New product trends
- Overview of new product launches
- Innovation activities in yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks are picking up
- Lactobacillus drink market share rebounds despite limited innovation momentum
- Graph 49: share of sub-categories in new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
- Graph 50: share of categories in new dairy products, 2020-25
- Innovation in chilled products is increasing, and spoonable yogurt sees continuous high growth
- Graph 51: new Lactobacillus drinks by type, 2020-25
- Graph 52: new yogurt products by category, 2020-25
- Companies and brands
- New product launch concentration decreases, Mengniu, New Hope and Junlebao accelerate innovation
- Chilled yogurt has become the main driver for the rise of private labels
- Graph 53: private labels’ share of new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks, 2020-25
- Key Trends
- New products highlight enhanced nutritional benefits, with a significant increase in plus-type claims
- Example of new products with high-growth claims
- Herbs such as mint flourish quickly; savouries such as braised pork defy flavour conventions
- Vegetable flavours caught on, contributing to the rise of diverse fruit and vegetable yogurt
- Graph 54: flavourscape of new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks – vegetable flavours, 2025
- Don’t overlook the growth potential of grain flavours
- Graph 55: flavourscape of new yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks – seed, rice and cereal flavours, 2025
- Example of new products with high-growth flavours
- Rich texture sees impressive performance, and spreadable form highlights its added value
- Examples of leading or high-growth quality new products
-
Appendix – market size and forecast, research methodology and abbreviations
- Market size and forecast – yogurt
- Market size and forecast – Lactobacillus drinks
- Market segments – ambient yogurt
- Market segments – chilled yogurt
- Consumer survey questions
- Consumer data: consumption occasions for yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks
- Graph 56: consumption occasions for yogurt and Lactobacillus drinks (NET), 2025
- Methodology: consumer survey
- TURF analysis methodology
- Methodology: Flavourscape AI
- Abbreviations
Market Intelligence Made Easier With Mintel
The first Mintel Market Intelligence report was published over 50 years ago. Since then, we have provided our unique insights and understanding of consumers, innovation and global markets to thousands of customers worldwide. Here’s why our customers rely on Mintel:
- Gain a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the market: Mintel reports blend consumer research, market forecasts, product innovation tracking, and competitive analysis, allowing businesses to see every angle of their industry and identify new opportunities quickly.
- Make decisions with confidence, grounded in robust data: Each report draws on up-to-date, reliable information from trusted sources and industry experts, ensuring your strategies are based on solid evidence rather than speculation.
- Benefit from expert analysis and practical recommendations: Mintel’s reports are written by experienced analysts who interpret complex data and provide clear, actionable insights you can trust to guide your next moves.
- Stay ahead with actionable intelligence on market trends and consumer behaviour: By combining fresh research with long-term market monitoring, our reports help businesses anticipate changes and adapt strategically. So you’re prepared to make informed decisions and drive growth.
What goes into a Mintel Market Intelligence Report?
Curious about how a Market Intelligence report comes together? We like to think of it as building a detailed puzzle. We start with individual pieces: data from consumers, market statistics, industry trends, and online conversations. Then our expert analysts add world-class human insight and industry knowledge. The pieces are assembled to reveal a clear, comprehensive picture of a market.
The Four Pillars of Our Research
We use a combination of four main research methods when creating our reports, each adding a valuable perspective:
- Consumer Research: Direct surveys with real people, giving us clear, current insights into what people think and do.
- Desk Research: In-depth review of trusted data sources. We use this rich database, plus powerful internal tools that track new products and market sizes, to detect trends and guide forecasts.
- Trade Research: Insights from conversations with industry experts. Their real-world experience helps us understand what’s happening behind the scenes.
- Brand and Social Media Research: Analysis of online opinions and trends. This lets us spot trends, measure brand sentiment, and capture feedback in real time, adding further depth to our research.
Bringing It All Together
Each of these four pillars provides a different piece of the puzzle. Consumer research tells us what customers think, desk research provides the factual framework, trade research offers an insider’s view, and social media analysis reveals public sentiment.
Our expert analysts are skilled in weaving these diverse data streams together. They apply a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to uncover the deeper story, connecting the dots to deliver clear, actionable insights. This comprehensive, multi-layered process is how we transform raw data into a market intelligence report you can trust to inform your most important business decisions.
For a closer look at a Mintel Market Intelligence Report, take a look at the sample PDF report below:
Please Note: All of the figures, graphs, and tables in this sample report have been redacted.
£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or purchase order
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF, Powerpoint and Excel Databook straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Interactive databook included
Focus on the data that matters most to you with a customisable databook avaliable on our platform
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.
Ngozi Ngonadi-Nkwoji, Senior Marketing Manager, Amazon
At Jackman, we believe that powerful strategies are based on human insight. Mintel’s leading-edge reports and insights into consumer attitudes and behaviors are an important input as we develop and execute strategy.
Alana Gavin, VP Research and Insights, Jackman
Mintel is really good for getting a handle on a particular category quickly. If we are working on a new business pitch in an area we don’t have much experience in, it’s a brilliant way to get up to speed with what’s going on, what’s changing and what the key trends are in any category.
It’s very rare now that anyone will plough through a 200-page report – that’s why the summaries are really useful. We know they are backed up by a lot of detail, so if you need to go into something in more depth you know the information will be all there for you.
Pauline Robson, Managing Partner, Mediacom
There is no question that Mintel is the go-to resource for the best quality market research, but I did not think it was an affordable option for Abacus Marketing to consider. As a small marketing agency, we only work with a few new clients each year.
However, we have a very high-end consultative approach to our work, so we really do need a partner like Mintel to provide the big agency experience we are always aiming to deliver. Our clients come from an incredibly diverse range of industry sectors, so we obviously need access to market research reports from a very wide spectrum of marketplaces – and that is precisely what we got.
Stephen Taylor-Brown, Managing Director, Abacus
Mintel helps us when we want to know something quickly – it provides fast answers to our questions. If we need to get a view of what’s going on in a particular market it’s very useful.
When carrying out background research, I find Mintel an excellent starting point.
The fact that it covers so many markets is a big plus for me– instead of having to buy specialist products in each area we are interested in, especially when we only require a brief view on a particular market, we can go to Mintel for help as a one-stop shop. I find Mintel a useful and valuable resource.
Ben Zeidler, Director - Research and Analytics, Tenth Wave
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
