Euro Retail Trends – Summer 2023
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“Across Europe, while each market has experienced the pressures of 2022 and early 2023 differently, the common factor has been a decline in consumer confidence taking its toll on demand. Consequently, in 2023, the European retail landscape has been defined by increasing value growth against a backdrop of decreasing volume sales. The overall inflationary pressures have eased slightly into Q2 2023. However, in many countries, inflation remains significantly and persistently high hindering optimism while adding further pressure to households and retail spending.”
– Utku Tansel, European Retail Analyst
Key report issues covered:
- Analysis of Market environment and European Retail Sales Performance – Quarter 2 2023
- Consumer sentiment and retail sales across leading European countries
- Launch Activity and Innovation for Quarter 2 2023
- Special Focus – Online grocery retailing
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Key Findings
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- Inflation may already have peaked but pressure remains in the short term
- Figure 1: European Union (27 countries) Inflation, overall index (HCIP), 2022-23
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- Figure 2: Europe: Key markets, HCIP/CPIH inflation, 2022-23
- Cost of living crisis impacts financial wellbeing across Europe
- Figure 3: Europe: Financial wellbeing by country, 2023
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- Figure 4: Future financial confidence, 2023
- Inflation continues to hit underlying demand in Europe
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- Figure 5: European Union (27 countries) Retail Sales, calendar adjusted non-seasonally adjusted in value and volume, 2022-23
- Launch activity and innovation for Q2 2023
- UK: John Lewis adds maternity wear to its rental offering
- UK: Dr Martens Is Set To Begin Using Recycled Leather In Its Northampton Factory
- UK: Asda launches autonomous deliveries in London
- UK: Sports Direct’s New Tech-Powered Manchester Flagship
- UK: Robert Dyas launches its new loyalty scheme
- Germany: Zalando set to launch virtual assistant tool powered by ChatGPT
- Germany: Balenciaga opens in Hamburg
- Germany: Lloyd Shoes GmbH opens its largest concept store in Greding
- France: Auchan France launches its new smart store, Auchan Go le lab
- France: Carrefour and UberEats team up to launch Carrefour XL
- Spain: El Corte Inglés trials a new supermarket concept
- Italy: Lidl opens 20th store in Rome boasting high tech
- Italy: Banco Fresco opens a “Fresh” format in Milan
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European Retail Sales
- Inflation may already have peaked but pressure remains in the short term
- Figure 6: European Union (27 countries) Inflation, overall index (HCIP), 2022-23
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- Figure 7: European Union (27 countries) Inflation, overall index (HCIP), highest and lowest report levels in January 2023, 2022-23
- Inflation continues to hit underlying demand in Europe
- Figure 8: European Union (27 countries) Retail Sales, calendar adjusted non-seasonally adjusted in value and volume, 2022-23
- Q1 performance: Turkey records strong retail growth driven by high inflation
- Figure 9: EuropeRetail Sales, calendar adjusted non-seasonally adjusted in value and volume, highest and lowest report value growth in Q1 2023
- Inflation may already have peaked but pressure remains in the short term
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UK: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- Consumer confidence remains low
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- Figure 10: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
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- Figure 11: Future financial confidence index, 2016-23
- Value growth, volume decline trend maintains into Q1
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- Figure 12: All retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Deep volume decline across the spectrum but store-based still outperforming
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- Figure 13: All retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2022-23
- Consumer confidence remains low
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France: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- Current confidence broadly stable, but outlook on the future worsens
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- Figure 14: France: Financial wellbeing, 2022-23
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- Figure 15: France: future financial confidence, 2022-23
- Volume retail sales were positive in 2022, but deteriorating conditions set in from October
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- Figure 16: France: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume, 2022-23
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- Figure 17: France: Retail Sales, calendar adjusted non-seasonally adjusted performance in value and volume by key category, 2022-23
- Current confidence broadly stable, but outlook on the future worsens
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Germany: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- Financial wellbeing dives as cost of living crisis takes hold
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- Figure 18: Germany: Financial wellbeing, 2022-23
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- Figure 19: Germany: future financial confidence, 2022-23
- Retail landscape feels the pressure
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- Figure 20: Germany: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume, 2022-23
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- Figure 21: Germany: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume by key category, 2022-23
- Financial wellbeing dives as cost of living crisis takes hold
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Italy: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- Italian financial wellbeing remains fragile
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- Figure 22: Italy: Financial wellbeing, 2022-23
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- Figure 23: Italy: future financial confidence, 2022-23
- Weaker second half 2022 performance of retail sales volumes continues into 2023
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- Figure 24: Italy: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume, 2022-23
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- Figure 25: Italy: Retail Sales, calendar adjusted non-seasonally adjusted performance in value and volume by key category, 2022-23
- Italian financial wellbeing remains fragile
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Spain: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- From a low base financial wellbeing in Spain has been broadly stable
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- Figure 26: Spain: Financial wellbeing, 2022-23
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- Figure 27: Spain: future financial confidence, 2022-23
- Robust demand in the face of rising prices as Spanish retail recovers
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- Figure 28: Spain: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume, 2022-23
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- Figure 29: Spain: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume by key category, 2022-23
- From a low base financial wellbeing in Spain has been broadly stable
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Poland: Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales
- Financial wellbeing continues to hold up despite pressure
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- Figure 30: Poland: Financial wellbeing, 2022-23
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- Figure 31: Poland: future financial confidence, 2022-23
- Weaker performance from Polish retail in February & March 2023
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- Figure 32: Poland: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume, 2022-23
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- Figure 33: Poland: Retail Sales, unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) performance in value and volume by key category, 2022-23
- Financial wellbeing continues to hold up despite pressure
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Launch Activity and Innovation for Q2 2023
-
- UK: John Lewis adds maternity wear to its rental offering
- Germany: Zalando set to launch virtual assistant tool powered by ChatGPT
- Asda launches autonomous deliveries in London
- Auchan France launches its new smart store, Auchan Go le lab
- France: Carrefour and UberEats team up to launch Carrefour XL
- Banco Fresco opens a “Fresh” format in Milan
- Lidl opens 20th store in Rome boasting high tech
- Sports Direct’s New Tech-Powered Manchester Flagship
- Balenciaga opens in Hamburg
- UK: Robert Dyas launches its new loyalty scheme
- Spain: El Corte Inglés trials a new supermarket concept
- Germany: Lloyd Shoes GmbH opens its largest concept store in Greding
- UK: Dr Martens Is Set To Begin Using Recycled Leather In Its Northampton Factory
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Special Focus: Online Grocery Retailing
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- The market
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- Figure 34: Europe: estimated online grocery sales (including VAT), 2018-22
- Figure 35: Europe: online grocery as % of all grocery retailing, 2018-22
- The Consumer
- Changes in online grocery shopping behaviour
- Figure 36: Europe: changes to online grocery shopping habits, past 12 months, 2023
- How online grocery orders are received
- Figure 37: Europe: delivery/collection options for online grocery orders, 2023
- Retailers used for online grocery shopping
- Figure 38: Europe: top three most used retailers when shopping for groceries online, 2023
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