2020
0
European Supermarkets Industry Market Report 2020
2021-01-15T03:02:17+00:00
OX990084
3850
132205
[{"name":"Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail"},{"name":"Supermarkets and Grocery","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail\/supermarkets-grocery"}]
Report
en_GB
“European supermarkets and discounters stand out in terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic having experienced a strong uptick in demand for food and essentials during 2020. Since the…

European Supermarkets Industry Market Report 2020

 3,850 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the European Supermarket industry including the behaviors, preferences and habits of the consumer.

This in-depth report comprises over 350 pages of rich and detailed statistics and information.

European supermarkets have been facing the challenges of operating in a mature and increasingly competitive market. While in certain countries of Eastern Europe there is still some room for growth, in most Western European economies the leading players have been forced to act defensively and to regularly innovate to maintain their share. With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe some reacted with panic rushing to supermarkets to stockpile, while other shoppers hit the keyboards, turning to online services.

With lockdown pressure piling up, supermarkets and delivery giants like Amazon Fresh and Ocado in the UK, quickly became overwhelmed. Supermarkets, discounters and other grocery retailers had to react quickly, not only to make their stores safe for shopping under the new threat of the virus, but also to strengthen their online platforms to cope with the surge in online demand and address initial supply issues.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the grocery retailing sector.
  • The winners and losers in the grocery retailing sector since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • The growth of the online grocery channel and the boost given to it by the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • How people shop for groceries and which retailers they use for main and top-up shops.
  • How behaviours of grocery shoppers have changed since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Armando Falcao, a leading analyst in the Retail sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

European supermarkets and discounters stand out in terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic having experienced a strong uptick in demand for food and essentials during 2020. Since the beginning of the outbreak, we have seen all the leading retailers quickly adapting to the new circumstances, with a plethora of innovations in technology to ensure the safety of their staff and customers.

Armando Falcao
European Retail Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Areas covered in this Report
    • Key issues covered in this report
    • Country coverage
    • Consumer research coverage
    • Definitions and technical notes
    • Consumer spending definitions
    • Retail sales
    • Financial definitions
    • Currencies
    • Sales tax rates
      • Figure 1: VAT rates around Europe, 2015-20
    • Abbreviations
  2. Executive Summary – Europe – The Market

    • The market
    • The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
    • Sector size and forecast
      • Figure 2: Europe: Retail sales by food retailers, excluding VAT, 2014-19
      • Figure 3: Europe Big Five: Food retailers, forecast sales, 2020-25
    • Consumer spending
    • Food and non-alcoholic drink
      • Figure 4: Europe: Spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks, including VAT, 2014-19
    • Alcohol, tobacco and narcotics
      • Figure 5: Europe: Spending on alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics, 2014-19
    • Health and beauty products
      • Figure 6: Europe: Spending on products for personal care, 2014-19
    • Spending and retail sales
      • Figure 7: Europe: Spending on food, drink and health & beauty as % of all food retailers’ sales, 2014-19
    • Inflation
      • Figure 8: Europe: harmonised index of food and non-alcoholic drinks prices, annual % change, 2014-20
      • Figure 9: Europe: harmonised index of alcohol and tobacco prices, annual % change, 2014-20
    • Online
      • Figure 10: EU: proportion of people who have bought groceries online, 2009-19
      • Figure 11: Europe: Proportion of people who have bought groceries online by country, 2014-19
      • Figure 12: Europe: Online grocery sales, excluding VAT, 2019
    • Leading players
      • Figure 13: Europe: Leading food retailers, sales, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 14: Europe: Leading food retailers, outlets, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 15: Europe: Leading food retailers, sales per outlet, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Market shares
      • Figure 16: Europe: Leading food retailers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 17: Europe: Leading food retailers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
  3. Executive Summary – Europe – The Consumer

    • The research
    • Who shops for groceries
      • Figure 18: Europe: Who shops for groceries, by country, August 2020
      • Figure 19: Europe: Who shops for groceries, by gender, August 2020
    • How people shop for groceries
      • Figure 20: Europe: How they shop for groceries, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
      • Figure 21: Europe: Two most used retailers and proportion of shoppers, by country, August 2020
      • Figure 22: Europe: Top 2 and Top 5 food retailers by proportion of shoppers, by country, August 2020
    • The discounters
      • Figure 23: Europe: Use of top 2 discounters for main shop and top-up shopping, by country, August 2020
    • Top-up shopping
      • Figure 24: Europe: Two most used retailers for top-up shopping, by country, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
      • Figure 25: Europe: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
      • Figure 26: Europe: Ranking of Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
  4. Executive Summary – Europe – Launch Activity and Innovation

    • On-demand grocery delivery for customers who want it now!
    • The ‘first 100% digital supermarket’ in Italy
    • Voice-based ecommerce grocery shopping experience
    • 24/7 grocery vending machine
    • Contactless grocery stores for shoppers who want to get in and out fast
    • Reimagining the humble shopping trolley
    • Stimulating healthier food buying habits
    • Bolstering consumer trust in food
    • Socially distanced grocery shopping in the COVID-19 era
  5. The Impact of COVID-19 on Supermarkets

    • Short, medium and long-term impact on the sector
      • Figure 27: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on food retailing, December 2020
    • Opportunities and threats
    • COVID-19 brings new opportunities online
      • Figure 28: Albert Heijn’s temporary home delivery service, May 2020
    • Technology and robotics used to support operations
      • Figure 29: Aldi’s traffic light queueing system in the UK, May 2020
      • Figure 30: Delhaize’s robots disinfect trolleys at stores, May 2020
    • Collaborations enable better service
    • Discounters pose threat to supermarkets as shoppers look to price
    • How COVID-19 will reshape the industry
    • Supporting the local community will gain further relevance
      • Figure 31: Sainsbury’s volunteer shopping card, May 2020
    • Mobile apps create space in home delivery for smaller players
    • Discounters boosted by limited budgets
    • Supermarket sales benefit in 2020 and beyond
      • Figure 32: Europe Big Five: Total food retailers’ sales and forecast, 2015-25
      • Figure 33: Europe Big Five: Total food retailers’ sales and forecast, by country, 2015-25
    • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour across Europe
    • Concern about exposure to COVID-19 begins to rise as second wave bites
      • Figure 34: Europe: Those extremely worried about the risk of being exposed to COVID-19, March-October 2020*
    • The financial impact of COVID-19
    • Furlough and job losses
    • Cutting back spending but adding to savings where possible
      • Figure 35: Europe: Financial impact of COVID-19, November 2020*
    • Changes to shopping behaviour
    • Non-essential spending takes a hit
    • People want to spend less time in-store
    • Cash is no longer king
    • Localism rises up the agenda
    • Online shopping receives major boost
    • Assisted shopping provides challenges for grocery retailers
    • Second wave prompts renewed stockpiling
      • Figure 36: Europe: Changes to shopping behaviour since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2020*
    • Consumers are trying not to handle/touch products in-store
      • Figure 37: Europe: people who would feel uncomfortable handling/touching products in-store, November 2020*
    • Spending intentions
    • Food one of the sectors least affected by reduction in spending
      • Figure 38: Net balance* of expected spending on selected items in the next month, November 2020**
    • French consumers most likely to be planning to spend less on food
      • Figure 39: Europe: Net balance* of expected spending on food (excluding takeaways/home deliveries) in the next month, November 2020**
    • How the crisis is impacting on key consumer segments
    • Women and older people most concerned about the virus
      • Figure 40: Europe: Those extremely worried about the risk of being exposed to COVID-19, by gender and age, November 2020*
    • Women and older age groups also trying to limit time in-store
      • Figure 41: Europe: consumers trying to limit the time they spend in-store, by gender and age, November 2020*
    • Online shopping boom is relatively uniform
      • Figure 42: Europe: consumers shopping more online, by gender and age, November 2020*
    • Shopping locally appeals more to older age groups
      • Figure 43: Europe: consumers shopping more from local businesses, by gender and age, November 2020*
    • COVID-19: Market context
    • UK
    • France
    • Germany
    • Italy
    • Spain
  6. France

    • Overview
    • Key issues covered in this report
    • Areas covered in this Report
    • Executive Summary
    • The market
    • The economy
    • Consumer spending
      • Figure 44: France: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2019
    • Sector size and forecast
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 45: France: Distribution of food and drink products (excluding tobacco) by channel, 2018
    • Companies and brands
    • Key metrics
    • Market shares
      • Figure 46: France: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
    • Online
    • The consumer
    • Who shops for groceries
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 47: France: How grocery shoppers typically shop, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
      • Figure 48: France: Where they shop for groceries, Primary and secondary shops August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues
      • Figure 49: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
      • Figure 50: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
      • Figure 51: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Issues and insights
    • COVID-19 encourages grocery retailers to support local business and communities
    • The implications of Aldi’s takeover of Leader Price
    • The market – Key takeaways
    • COVID-19 has hit the economy hard
    • Spending on food and drink remained resilient
    • Grocers offset decline in non-essential retailers’ sales
    • Can December rescue the retail sector?
    • Decline of the hypermarket and shift to online accelerates
    • Consumer spending
    • The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
    • The economy
    • Consumer spending on groceries
      • Figure 52: France: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2015-20
    • Sector size and forecast
    • Black Friday and December
    • Grocers vs specialists
      • Figure 53: France: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
      • Figure 54: France: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
    • Inflation
      • Figure 55: France: Consumer prices * of food and drink, Annual % change, 2015-19
      • Figure 56: France: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, January 2019-September 2020
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 57: France: Distribution of food and drink products (excluding tobacco) by channel, 2017-19
    • Companies and brands – Key takeaways
    • Leclerc still leads
    • Aldi acquires Leader Price to rival Lidl in the discount sector
    • Grocers respond to changing market
    • Specialists losing market share but discounters gaining ground
    • Online growth to be driven by home delivery
    • Leading players
    • Leclerc hypermarket focus pays off…
    • …while Carrefour looks to c-stores and organics
    • Casino boosts online offer
    • Aldi to expand with the acquisition of 500+ Leader Price stores
    • Grocers’ initiatives to respond to changing markets
      • Figure 58: France: Leading grocers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-19
      • Figure 59: France: Leading grocers, outlets, 2015-19
    • Sales per outlet
      • Figure 60: France: Leading grocers, Sales per outlet, 2015-19
    • Market shares
      • Figure 61: France: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
    • Online
    • Online activity and online grocery market size
      • Figure 62: France: Broadband connections (percentage of households), 2011-19
      • Figure 63: France: smartphone ownership, June 2020
    • Shopping online for food
      • Figure 64: France: Online purchasing, 2010-19
      • Figure 65: France: Change in frequency of selected food and drink habits since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, ordering Groceries online
    • Online grocery market size
    • Leading online players
      • Figure 66: France: leading online grocery retailers’ sales, 2015-19
    • The consumer – Key takeaways
    • Women still have most responsibility for grocery shopping
    • Top-up shopping widespread
    • Leclerc the most popular for a main shop and Lidl for top-ups
    • Carrefour’s different store formats ensure widespread usage
    • Lidl leads for secondary shopping
    • Christmas unlikely to be a lifeline for many retailers
    • Own brands can help cash-strapped shoppers
    • Grocery retailers’ ethical responsibilities are now more visible
    • Who shops for groceries
      • Figure 67: France: who shops for groceries by gender, August 2020
      • Figure 68: France: who shops for groceries, August 2020
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 69: France: How grocery shoppers typically shop, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
      • Figure 70: France: Where they shop for groceries, main shop, August 2020
      • Figure 71: France: Where they shop for groceries, Primary and secondary shops August 2020
    • Customer profiles
      • Figure 72: France: grocery retailer they spend the most with, by average age and income, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
    • Christmas
      • Figure 73: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Own brand and promotions
      • Figure 74: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Attitudes to grocery retailers
      • Figure 75: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Appendix – Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information
    • Abbreviations
    • Data sources
  7. Italy

    • Overview
    • Key issues covered in this report
    • Areas covered in this report
    • Executive summary
    • The market
    • Consumer spending
      • Figure 76: Italy: annual percentage change in consumer spending on food and beverages, 2015-19
    • Sector size and forecast
      • Figure 77: Italy: food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 78: Italy: estimated distribution of spending on food and beverages by channel, 2019
    • Companies and brands
    • Key metrics
    • Market shares
      • Figure 79: Italy: top 10 grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
    • Online
      • Figure 80: Italy: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2014-19
    • The consumer
    • Who shops for groceries
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 81: Italy: how they shop for groceries, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
      • Figure 82: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
      • Figure 83: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
    • Issues and insights
    • Consumers look for value and local suppliers in wake of COVID-19
    • Discounters have been the prime beneficiaries
    • Big two are well placed to deal with COVID-19 impact
    • Hypermarkets will be the main losers
    • Will the growth in online grocery continue after 2020?
    • Online grocery sales turbocharged by COVID-19 outbreak
    • Strong growth in usage of online grocery services
    • Capacity still a barrier to faster growth
    • Shoppers reluctant to spend time in-store
    • Future prospects generally look good
    • Some potential obstacles
    • Important not to exclude some consumers from online ordering
    • The market – Key takeaways
    • Hard times ahead
    • Mixed fortunes for food retailers
    • COVID-19 has resulted in food price rises
    • Grocers dominate sales of food and drink but share slips marginally
    • Consumer spending
    • The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
    • Consumer spending on food
      • Figure 84: Italy: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2015-20
    • Sector size and forecast
      • Figure 85: Italy: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
      • Figure 86: Italy: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
    • Inflation
      • Figure 87: Italy: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, 2015-19
      • Figure 88: Italy: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, January 2019-August 2020
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 89: Italy: estimated distribution of spending on food and beverages by channel, 2015-19
    • Companies and brands – key takeaways
    • Conad pushes ahead with more to come
    • Coop Italia plateaus
    • A concentrated market
    • Online grocery still lags in Italy
    • Leading players
    • Conad pushes ahead with more to come
    • Coop Italia plateaus
    • Selex breaks through the €10 billion sales barrier
    • Mixed fortunes at Esselunga
    • Other players
      • Figure 90: Italy: Leading grocers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-19
      • Figure 91: Italy: Leading grocers, outlets, 2015-19
      • Figure 92: Italy: Leading grocers, sales per outlet, 2015-19
    • Market shares
      • Figure 93: Italy: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
    • Online
    • Online activity
      • Figure 94: Italy: Household penetration of broadband internet, 2014-19
    • Shopping online for food
      • Figure 95: Italy: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2014-19
    • Online grocery market size
    • Leading online players
    • Esselunga
    • Conad
    • Coop Italia
    • The consumer – Key takeaways
    • Women main grocery shoppers and most concerned about COVID risk
    • Localism grows in importance
    • Greater spotlight on value has potential to boost own label sales
    • COVID-19 cements feelings of community
    • Sustainability rises steadily up the agenda
    • Who shops for groceries
      • Figure 96: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, net of responses, August 2020
      • Figure 97: Italy: Who shops for groceries, by gender, August 2020
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 98: Italy: how they shop for groceries, August 2020
      • Figure 99: Italy: how they shop for groceries, by gender, August 2020
      • Figure 100: Figure 101: Italy: how they shop for groceries, by age, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
      • Figure 102: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, net of responses, August 2020
      • Figure 103: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, August 2020
    • Customer profile
      • Figure 104: Italy: Where they shop for groceries by age and income, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
    • Localism grows in importance
    • Greater spotlight on value has potential to boost own label sales
    • COVID-19 cements feelings of community
    • Sustainability rises steadily up the agenda
      • Figure 105: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
      • Figure 106: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, by where they shop for groceries**, August 2020
    • Appendix – Research methodology, data sources and abbreviations
    • Abbreviations
    • Data sources
  8. Spain

    • Overview
    • Key issues covered in this report
    • Areas covered in this report
    • Executive summary
    • The market
    • Consumer spending
      • Figure 107: Spain: Consumer spending on food, drinks and tobacco (including VAT), 2014-20
    • Sector size and forecast
      • Figure 108: Spain: Food retailers’ sales and forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2015-25
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 109: Spain: estimated distribution of spending on food and drink products by channel, 2019
    • Companies and brands
    • Leading retailers
    • Market share
      • Figure 110: Spain: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
    • Online
    • The consumer
    • Who shops for groceries
      • Figure 111: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, August 2020
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 112: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by gender, August 2020
    • Where they shop
      • Figure 113: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
      • Figure 114: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Issues and insights
    • Supermarkets struggle to meet COVID-19 demand for online
    • Own-brand can challenge more expensive items at Christmas
    • The market – Key takeaways
    • COVID-19 is creating a peak in food consumption
    • Boost in grocers’ and food retailers’ sales
    • Grocers take nearly 80% of spending on food and drinks
    • Consumer spending
    • The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
    • Consumer spending on food
      • Figure 115: Spain: consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2014-20
    • Sector size and forecast
      • Figure 116: Spain: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2014-20
      • Figure 117: Spain: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
    • Inflation
      • Figure 118: Spain: Consumer prices* of food and drink, annual % change, 2014-20
      • Figure 119: Spain: Consumer prices* of food and drink, annual % change, January 2018-October 2020
    • Channels of distribution
      • Figure 120: Spain: Estimated distribution of spending on food and drink products by channel, 2019
    • Companies and brands – Key takeaways
    • Food retailers among the few to benefit from COVID-19…
    • …though the pandemic has brought added costs
    • Mercadona, Carrefour and Auchan performing well
    • Lidl continues its rise
    • Online gains importance from COVID-19
    • Leading players
    • Mercadona and Carrefour continue to grow
      • Figure 121: Spain: Leading food retailers, sales 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 122: Spain: Leading food retailers, outlets, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 123: Spain: Leading food retailers, sales per outlet, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Market shares
      • Figure 124: Spain: Leading food retailers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
    • Online
    • Online activity
      • Figure 125: Spain: Access to broadband connection (percentage of households), 2009-19
    • Shopping online for food
      • Figure 126: Spain: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2009-19
    • Online grocery market size
    • Leading online players
      • Figure 127: Spain: leading online grocery retailers, estimated sales, 2016-19
    • The consumer – Key takeaways
    • Women continue to take most responsibility for grocery shopping
    • Most Spaniards do one main shop as well as top-up shops
    • Men shop more at Carrefour and women at Mercadona
    • COVID-19 reinforces a sense of community and giving back
    • Looking forward to Christmas but spending will be modest
    • Who shops for groceries
      • Figure 128: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, by gender, August 2020
      • Figure 129: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, by age, August 2020
    • How they shop for groceries
      • Figure 130: Spain: How they shop for groceries, August 2020
      • Figure 131: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by age group, August 2020
      • Figure 132: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by age group, August 2020
    • Where they shop for groceries
    • Primary shop
      • Figure 133: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, August 2020
    • Secondary shop
      • Figure 134: Spain: Grocery retailers used for other top-up shops, August 2020
    • Customer profiles
      • Figure 135: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by gender, August 2020
      • Figure 136: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by age group, August 2020
      • Figure 137: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by how they shop, August 2020
    • Attitudes towards shopping for groceries in the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Retailers’ efforts to support local suppliers and community noted
      • Figure 138: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Grocery retailers face a difficult Christmas as shoppers rein in spending
      • Figure 139: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • COVID-19 pandemic drives an increased appetite for own-brand products
      • Figure 140: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
    • Appendix – Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information
    • Abbreviations
    • Data sources
  9. UK

    • Overview
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: Market Context
    • Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • Products covered in this Report
    • Executive Summary
    • Impact of COVID-19 on grocery retail sales
      • Figure 141: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on all retail and grocery retail sales, December 2020
    • The market
    • Spending on in-home food and drink soars as a result of COVID-19
      • Figure 142: Consumer spending on and growth in core in-home food and drink categories, Q1 2019-Q2 2020
    • Grocery retail sales hit record high, although hit to non-foods depresses growth
      • Figure 143: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25 (17 November 2020)
    • Online to claim over 10% of spending for the first time
      • Figure 144: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
    • Leading Retailers
    • The big four still account for two thirds of all sales
      • Figure 145: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2019
    • Online sales to near double in 2020
      • Figure 146: Online Grocery market size (including VAT), 2015-20
    • Underlying trends remain key
      • Figure 147: Asda Sustainability store, Middleton October 2020
    • Amazon’s innovation differentiates it, but Tesco outperforms on trust
      • Figure 148: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
    • The consumer
    • COVID-19 drives bigger baskets… and less frequent shops
      • Figure 149: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-20
    • …and less frequent shops
      • Figure 150: Frequency of grocery shop, 2018 and 2020
    • Despite bigger baskets, the shift of spending away from larger-format stores continues
      • Figure 151: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-20
    • Tesco is the most popular retailer
      • Figure 152: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2020
    • Overall satisfaction levels are high, but more clarity on sourcing is key
      • Figure 153: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with supermarkets, September 2020
    • Goodwill towards retailers is high, but will be lost if not invested in
      • Figure 154: Attitudes towards grocery shopping, August 2020
    • Issues and Insights
    • COVID-19 Reset: Defining the food and drink offer in supermarkets
    • COVID-19 Reset: Driving the multi-mission benefits
    • The Market – Key Takeaways
    • COVID-19 drives confidence down and sees consumers cut back
    • Spending on in-home food and drink soars as a result of COVID-19
    • Online to claim over 10% of spending for the first time
    • Market Drivers
    • Confidence dives with onset of COVID-19 and remains volatile
      • Figure 155: Financial confidence index, January 2015-November 2020
    • COVID-19 polarises finances
      • Figure 156: Current financial situation compared to a year ago, by household income, November 2020
    • Wages take a pounding after COVID-19 triggers economic downturn
      • Figure 157: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2017-September 2019
    • Retail sales drop sharply during COVID-19 lockdown
      • Figure 158: Monthly UK retail sales (excluding fuel), by value, January 2017-October 2020
    • Food and drink prices fell in wake of relaxation of first COVID-19 lockdown restrictions…
      • Figure 159: Food and drink inflation, October 2019-October 2020
    • …however a tick up in the first half of the year is expected
      • Figure 160: Origins of food consumed in the UK, 2019
      • Figure 161: UK trade, value of import and export by food groups, 2019
      • Figure 162: food and drink, percentage of total imports accounted for by the EU, 2015-20 (Oct)
    • Home ownership is rising and renting is falling
      • Figure 163: UK household tenure status, 2014-19
    • Consumer Spending on Food and Drink
    • Growth slows in 2019 but COVID-19 will bring a record year for spending on food and drink
      • Figure 164: Consumer spending on and growth in core in-home food and drink categories, Q1 2019-Q2 2020
      • Figure 165: Consumer spending on core in-home food and drink categories, 2015-20
    • Spending on food to top £100 billion for the first time
      • Figure 166: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in food, 2014-20
      • Figure 167: Breakdown of consumer spending on food, 2019
    • In-home consumption major boost to tea and coffee
      • Figure 168: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in non-alcoholic drinks, 2014-20
    • In-home alcohol sales get big boost from COVID-19
      • Figure 169: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation on alcoholic drinks, 2014-20
      • Figure 170: Breakdown of value spending in the alcoholic drinks category, 2019
    • Sector Size and Forecast
    • Greater in-home demand boosts basket sizes and grocery sales
      • Figure 171: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on all retail and grocery retail sales, December 2020
    • Growth to reach record high in 2020
      • Figure 172: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25
      • Figure 173: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25
    • Supermarkets see strong growth, but growth in online holds back store-based sales
      • Figure 174: Supermarket market size and forecast (including VAT), 2015-25
      • Figure 175: Supermarket market size and forecast (including VAT), 2015-25
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 176: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
    • Learnings from the last recession
      • Figure 177: Annual % change in all grocery retail sales (excluding VAT), and by broad category, 2007-12
    • Forecast methodology
    • Channels of Distribution
    • Supermarkets still the largest channel within the grocery sector…
      • Figure 178: Estimated channels of distribution for grocery retail sales, 2019
    • …however share of spending is likely to fall below 50% for the first time
      • Figure 179: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
    • The Consumer – Key Takeaways
    • COVID-19 drives up basket sizes as consumers reduce frequency of shop
    • Bigger basket shopping not necessarily to the benefit of supermarkets
    • Appreciation of the grocery sector at a high
    • How They Shop
    • There remains a gender imbalance in the responsibility for grocery shopping
      • Figure 180: Responsibility for grocery shopping, August 2020
    • COVID-19 helps to bring bigger basket shops back in vogue
      • Figure 181: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-20
    • There is fluidity in these habits
      • Figure 182: How grocery shoppers typically shop, by quarter, Mar-2016, Sep-2020
    • COVID-19 hits frequency of shop
      • Figure 183: Frequency of grocery shop, 2018 and 2020
    • Types of Store Used
    • Despite bigger baskets, the shift of spending away from larger-format stores continues
      • Figure 184: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-20
      • Figure 185: Mintel Grocery Tracker: Format where the most is spent in a typical month, Mar-Sep 2020
    • Older shoppers spend the most in supermarkets, but are increasingly shifting spend to other channels
      • Figure 186: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by age, August 2020
    • Significant shift in both lower and higher income households’ spend to online and discounters
      • Figure 187: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by household income, August 2020
    • Retailers Shopped With
    • Tesco remains top of the pack
      • Figure 188: Grocery retailers used, August 2020
    • Tesco has been losing shoppers for the last three years
      • Figure 189: Trend of grocery retailers used, 2018-20
    • Morrisons most likely to be used for a top-up shop over a main shop
      • Figure 190: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2020
    • Just 7% of shoppers stick to one retailer
      • Figure 191: Repertoire of secondary retailers used, August 2020
    • Nearly 50% of Lidl shoppers are topping up at Tesco
      • Figure 192: Where leading retailers’ primary shoppers also shop, August 2020
    • Retailer Demographic Comparison
    • Tesco gains more 16-24 year old primary and secondary shoppers
      • Figure 193: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by age, August 2020
    • Aldi still skews towards younger customers
      • Figure 194: The discounters: primary and secondary shoppers, by age, August 2020
    • Tesco’s convenience store estate creates strong secondary usage
      • Figure 195: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by location, August 2020
    • Lidl pulls ahead of Aldi in London
      • Figure 196: Leading retailers’ primary shoppers, by region, August 2020
      • Figure 197: Leading retailers’ secondary shoppers, by region, August 2020
    • Big four supermarkets attracting the same demographics
      • Figure 198: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by household income bracket, August 2020
    • Aldi appealing to higher income households for top-up shops
      • Figure 199: Aldi and Lidl, primary and secondary grocery shoppers, by household income bracket, August 2020
    • Satisfaction With The Shopping Experience
    • Most are satisfied with the COVID-19 measures put in place
      • Figure 200: Satisfaction levels with the grocery retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2020
    • Product sourcing information still an area that needs work
      • Figure 201: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with supermarkets, September 2020
    • Satisfaction by retailer
      • Figure 202: Overall satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2020
      • Figure 203: Satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, by factors, September 2020
      • Figure 204: Satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, by factors, September 2020
    • Methodology
    • The Short and Long-term Impact of COVID-19 on the Grocery Sector
    • Stockpiling drove initial peak demand, but longer-term points to more ‘prepared-ness’
      • Figure 205: COVID-19 Tracker: stockpiling and availability, Feb – Nov 2020
    • A short-term rowing back of trends which remain key longer-term
      • Figure 206: COVID-19 Tracker: Attitudes to grocery shopping and COVID-19, 18-24 June 2020
    • COVID-19 may accelerate the integration of more technology in-store
      • Figure 207: Use of self-scan since COVID-19, August 2020
    • Appreciation for grocery retail is at an all-time high…
      • Figure 208: Attitudes towards the importance of grocery retailers, August 2020
    • …but this opportunity will be lost unless it is shown to be a two-way street
      • Figure 209: Attitudes towards local and British sourced products, August 2020
    • Value high on the agenda but customers want help to cut back
      • Figure 210: Attitudes towards food waste and promotions, August 2020
    • Opportunities for own-brand in a more value conscious market
      • Figure 211: Impact of COVID-19 on own-brand purchasing, by household income, October 2020
    • Leading Retailers – Key Takeaways
    • The big four still account for two-thirds of sales within the grocery sector
    • COVID-19 has changed much, but the underlying trends in the sector remain
    • COVID-19 has further blended the channels
    • Leading Retailers – Key Metrics
    • Sales
      • Figure 212: Leading grocery retailers, sales, 2015-19
    • Stores
      • Figure 213: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2015-19
      • Figure 214: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per outlet, 2015-19
    • Sales areas and densities
      • Figure 215: Leading grocery retailers: Total sales area, 2015-19
      • Figure 216: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per square metre, 2015-19
    • Operating profits and margins
      • Figure 217: Leading grocery retailers: Operating profits, 2015-19
      • Figure 218: Leading grocery retailers: Operating margins, 2015-19
    • Market Share
    • Discounters continue to grow market share
      • Figure 219: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2019
    • Market concentration continues to drop
      • Figure 220: Leading grocery retailers: Share of all grocery retail sales, 2015-19
    • A note on our market share
    • Online
    • Online shopping is ubiquitous and here to stay
      • Figure 221: Online Grocery market size (Including VAT), 2015-20
      • Figure 222: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
    • Online grocery shopping up significantly in just 4 months of 2020
      • Figure 223: Products purchased in the past year, 2019-20
    • 25% of consumers doing all or most of their grocery shopping online
      • Figure 224: Online Grocery usage, December 2019
    • Key players in the online grocery sector
      • Figure 225: Leading online grocery retailers’ estimated market shares (excluding VAT), 2019
    • Launch Activity and Innovation
    • A greener way to shop for food
      • Figure 226: Asda Sustainability store, Middleton October 2020
    • Taxi business launches into grocery delivery market
    • Appointment supermarket shopping to avoid the queues
      • Figure 227: Sparks Book & Shop, October 2020
    • Sainsbury’s new local store concept to meet the demand for convenience shopping
      • Figure 228: Sainsbury’s Neighbourhood Hub, November 2020
    • …when all you want is the bare necessities
      • Figure 229: Bother, November 2020
    • One-stop multi-shopping mission destination for shoppers who want to limit time in-store
    • Pop-up supermarkets to support frontline healthcare workers during COVID-19 crisis
    • Expanded food-to-go options and in-store pub
    • Aldi’s ‘secret bargain hour’ makes the low-cost food retailer even cheaper
    • Unique on-demand grocery delivery service
    • Advertising and Marketing Activity
    • Total sector advertising up 1.7% year-on-year in 2019
      • Figure 230: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, 2016-20*
    • Tesco is the biggest advertising spender for the third consecutive year
      • Figure 231: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure, by leading UK supermarket and online grocers, 2016-19
    • Advertising spend increases around key seasonal events
      • Figure 232: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, by month, 2018 and 2019
    • Advertising spend shifting to press, outdoor and radio
      • Figure 233: Percentage media type split of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarkets and online grocers, 2016-20*
    • What we’ve seen so far in 2020
    • COVID-19-themed campaigns
    • Asda reboots iconic ‘pocket tap’ jingle
    • Aldi challenges shoppers to re-evaluate their preconceptions of its quality offering
    • Waitrose & Partners commitment to sourcing high-quality ingredients
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
    • Brand Research
    • Brand map
      • Figure 234: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
    • Key brand metrics
      • Figure 235: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2020
    • Brand attitudes: Tesco retains most trusted retailer status
      • Figure 236: Attitudes, by brand, November 2020
    • Brand personality: Sainsbury’s more ethical than competitors
      • Figure 237: Brand personality – macro image, November 2020
    • Amazon – cutting edge but profit focused
      • Figure 238: Brand personality – micro image, November 2020
    • Brand analysis
    • Tesco the most trusted retailer
    • Sainsbury’s considered more ethical than big four rivals
    • Asda is better value than Morrisons and Sainsbury’s
    • Morrisons has the lowest lifetime usage of the big four retailers
    • Aldi’s experience and value ahead of rival Lidl
    • Co-op is considered ethical by consumers
    • Lidl considered the most basic of the retailers
    • M&S offers an excellent experience
    • Iceland is basic but good value
    • Waitrose trust lower than many competitors
    • Amazon leading the way in innovation
    • Ocado exclusive and expensive
  10. Asda Group

    • What we think
    • Now under British ownership
    • Plugging the gap in convenience grocery shopping
    • One-stop multiple shopping mission destination
    • Hygiene-centric shopping experience in wake of COVID-19 pandemic
    • Avoiding queues during COVID-19 crisis
    • Rapid online order fulfilment and ‘greener’ home deliveries
    • Doubling down on price competitiveness ahead of crucial Christmas trading period
    • Sustainability test store and ‘green’ price pledge
    • Supporting the elderly and vulnerable during the COVID-19 crisis
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 239: Asda Stores Ltd: Financial performance, 2015-19
      • Figure 240: Asda Stores Ltd: Outlet data, 2015-19
    • Retail offering
  11. Marks & Spencer (UK food)

    • What we think
    • Entire range of food finally available to buy online
    • Shifting to contact-free shopping with expansion of checkout-free service
    • Appointment grocery shopping service to avoid COVID-19 lockdown queues
    • Debunking high price myth
    • Food-to-go vending machine
    • Helping customers back on wasted food and reduce plastic pollution
    • Helping NHS staff and the vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 241: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 242: Marks & Spencer (UK Food): Food outlets, by format, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 243: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Retail offering
  12. J Sainsbury

    • What we think
    • One-stop multiple mission shopping destinations
    • Neighbourhood store expansion to meet the demand for top-up grocery shopping
    • On-demand grocery delivery service
    • Exploring new locations to bring food and household products to customers
    • Accelerating roll-out of scan and go
    • Ramping up loyalty scheme promotions amid the toughening trading conditions
    • In-store product refill stations to cut back on the use of plastic
    • Supporting communities and the most vulnerable during pandemic
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 244: J Sainsbury: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 245: J Sainsbury: Estimated Ex-VAT Retail financial breakdown, 2017/18-2020/21
      • Figure 246: J Sainsbury: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Retail offering
  13. Spar International

    • What we think
    • Expanded ecommerce operation to meet online demand
    • Store format innovation to meet specific community needs
    • Making in-store shopping safer, quicker and more convenient
    • A one-person concept shop with scalable pop-up opportunities
    • Helping customers avoid queueing for stores
    • Reducing food waste at both store and consumer level
    • Supporting local communities throughout the COVID-19 pandemic
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 247: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales, by country, 2015-19
      • Figure 248: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe stores, by country, 2015-19
      • Figure 249: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales area, 2015-19
    • Retail offering
  14. Tesco

    • What we think
    • Boosting price competitiveness when value is uppermost in shoppers’ minds
    • Cashless store experience aimed at shoppers in a hurry
    • Free and more eco-friendly online deliveries
    • On-demand grocery essentials delivery service by drones
    • Cutting down on food and plastic waste
    • Pop-up stores offering 24-hour access to essential grocery products
    • Supporting struggling local producers during COVID-19 crisis
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 250: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 251: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Retail offering
  15. Waitrose & Partners

    • What we think
    • Expanded delivery service to support more people shopping online
    • Virtual shopping services to make online shopping easier for customers staying away from stores
    • One-stop shopping convenience
    • Making grocery shopping more affordable during these uncertain times
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 252: Waitrose: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 253: Waitrose: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Retail offering
  16. Wm Morrison Group

    • What we think
    • Speedier online grocery deliveries
    • More reasons for shoppers to visit stores
    • Slashing prices to be more competitive
    • 1,000 new local products to meet demand for more locally-produced products
    • Saved 100 tonnes of food from going to waste
    • Supporting struggling suppliers, frontline health workers and the vulnerable
    • A more environmentally friendly Christmas
    • Company background
    • Company performance
      • Figure 254: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
      • Figure 255: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
    • Retail offering

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

Market

Mintel provides a range of market information, frequently through the category level, including market size and forecasting, complete with market drivers that illustrate the forces that shape a category or market.

Consumer

Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.

Brand/Company

Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

Data

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*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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