The birth rate in Germany is in long-term decline. This is challenging the volume sales of baby food and will lead manufacturers to focus on targeting older infants rather than newborns. Opportunities exist for brands to position baby food such as finger foods and snacks to target a variety of consumption occasions.
Driven by the desire to prepare healthier meals for and with their children, 95% of parents of 0-4 year olds feed them homemade food as it gives them more control over the quality and amount of ingredients, eg sodium/sugar content. At the same time, rising costs have led 62% of parents of 0-4 year olds to make more meals at home as a way to save money, increasing to 71% among those in a tight financial situation.
The challenging financial landscape is also providing an opportunity for private labels to capitalise on consumers trading down for cheaper options, although brands such as Hipp and Danone still hold sway. Brands that communicate their expertise will win favour due to their strong, established reputations.
Highlighting minimally processed ingredients is one way brands can entice consumers who may otherwise turn to scratch cooking for health reasons. 91% of parents feed their children manufactured food, but 34% place importance on natural ingredients and 41% on how healthy a product is, while 51% prioritise food that supports their child’s immune system.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Types of food/drink fed to babies, with parents prioritising scratch cooking to save money and for health reasons
- Most important health benefits in baby food, with supporting immune health being the number one priority
- Parents’ key sources of information/advice on feeding babies/toddlers, including family and friends
- Priorities when buying milk formula
- Purchase prompts for buying a new baby food/drink product
- Attitudes towards baby food including concern about contamination of baby food from packaging
- Recent product launch activity, innovations, market share, size and forecast
Offer health-conscious parents meal kits and clean ingredients. Targeting older infants will adapt to declining birth rates and maximise snack usage occasions.
Charlotte Sander, Associate Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five year outlook for baby food
- Market context
- German parents like to cook from scratch
- Virtually all parents cook baby food at home
- A declining birth rate provides new focus areas for brands to target
- Graph 1: live births, 2017-22
- BMEL’s proposed ban on advertising to children highlights need for reduced sugar and salt levels
- Mintel predicts
- Market size & forecast
- Declining birthrate shifts focus onto older infants
- Expect a moderate increase in value sales
- Volume sales will stagnate in line with a falling birth rate
- Opportunities
- Focus on transparency and clean ingredients to win over health-conscious German parents
- Meal kits provide mealtime variety
- Cater to family cooking occasions with toddler-friendly meal kits
- Emphasise expertise to retain the loyalty of price-conscious parents
- Maximise consumption occasions with snacks and finger foods
- The competitive landscape
- Financial uncertainty provides a tailwind for private label
- Graph 2: company retail market share of baby food by value and volume, 2023
-
MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 is expected to be more challenging than initially predicted
- Graph 3: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- The inflation rate is slowly bouncing back to more conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 4: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- Parents’ financial confidence is higher, despite inflation
- Graph 5: financial wellbeing of parents of 0-4 year olds vs all adults, 2024
- Declining birth rate provides new focus areas for brands to target
- Graph 6: live births, 2017-22
- Older mothers are more financially stable
- Graph 7: average birth age of mothers, 2012-22
- BMEL breastfeeding guidelines
- New guidelines to shift views on processed baby food
- Brands are following BMEL’s ban on advertising to children
- Momfluencers only relevant if they’re authentic
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Types of food/drink fed to babies
- Home-cooked meals remain top choice for parents
- Graph 8: types of food/drink fed to babies, 2024
- Formula milk sees declining use in 2024
- Graph 9: any types of food/drink fed to babies, 2020-24
- Snacks and finger food is a growth category
- Wanting to save money prompts a decline in volume sales of baby food
- Full-time working parents are important to sales of manufactured food
- Graph 10: types of baby food fed, by parents’ employment status, 2024
- Focus on transparency and clean ingredients
- Most important health benefits in baby food
- Boost baby’s immune systems with essential nutrition
- Graph 11: most important health benefits in baby food, any rank, 2024
- Half of parents seek immune health boosters for their babies
- Communicate ingredients as clear health benefits
- Priorities when buying milk formula
- Parents seek milk formula close to breast milk and with benefits
- Graph 12: priorities when buying infant/follow-on milk formula products, 2024
- Organic and environment promises are important
- Instil brand loyalty amidst financial setbacks
- Support plant-based diets
- Purchase prompts for buying a new baby food/drink product
- Tried and trusted brands over price
- Graph 13: factors that would prompt purchase of a new baby food/drink product, 2024
- Parents want recommendations from trusted sources
- Full-time working parents look online for inspiration
- Graph 14: online factors that would prompt purchase of a new baby/toddler food/drink product, by working status, 2024
- Fathers are more influenced by TV and print advertising
- Attitudes towards baby food
- Ultra-processed foods are in the spotlight
- Overcome negative associations with UPFs in baby food
- Reassure parents that packaging is safe
- Parents want to save money and seek variety
- Toddler-friendly meal kits can cater to family cooking
- Private-label alternatives save money, but brand expertise can counteract
- Using cultural occasions for international meals
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LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Snacks offer more consumption occasions for baby food
- Graph 15: baby food launches, by product type, 2019-23
- Organic baby food launches lead, and there’s a clear drive toward no added sugar
- Graph 16: launches of baby food*, by top ten claims, 2019-23
- Brands focus on existing baby food ranges rather than new products in 2023
- Graph 17: baby food launches, by type, 2019-23
- Fruit dominates product launches in German baby food
- Graph 18: % of baby food launches, by flavour component subgroup, 2019-23
- Apple overtakes plain/unflavoured as the most popular flavour of recent baby food launches
- Graph 19: % of baby food launches, by flavour component, 2020-23
- Combine more common baby food flavours with a dash of something more exotic for less fussy eaters
- Brain and nervous system remain the top functional health claims in baby food
- Graph 20: launches of infant formula/growing-up milk, by top five functional claims, 2019-23
- Graph 21: launches of baby food*, by top five functional claims, 2019-23
- Highlight vitamins and minerals that have functional benefits relating to brain and nervous system
- Take healthy food examples from international brands…
- …and US texture inspiration…
- …but highlight “Made in Germany” claims
- Baby foods catering to parents’ wariness towards cow’s milk/dairy continue to grow
- From children for children
- Mothers Finest supports mothers after birth
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Hipp’s organic baby food respects the environment to achieve the very best quality
- Aptamil reassures parents through its science
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MARKET SHARE
- Market share in baby food
- Hipp dominates the baby food market in terms of value…
- …as well as volume
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MARKET SIZE, Segmentation AND FORECAST
- Volumes are expected to stagnate in line with a declining birth rate, higher prices will see an increase in value sales
- Wet baby foods maintain market share lead in terms of value…
- …and volume
- Volume sales expected to stagnate in line with a falling birth rate
- Expect a moderate increase in value sales
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
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