Rising prices, caused by changing climate conditions and the alcohol moderation trend among 18-24-year-olds causes the beer market in Germany to decline. Investment in climate-resistant grain, as well as added benefits in low-/non-alcohol alternatives can help mitigate this decline.
The German Beer Market – Current Landscape
Amid declining beer sales, the European Championships offered beer brands a reprise in 2024. This uplift incentivises beer brands to build communities, while engaging existing ones, to drive year-round excitement.
The alcohol moderation trend, particularly prevalent among 18-24 year-olds, threatens the beer market in Germany. Catering to moderators, manufacturers can explore lower-ABV beers that balance health with indulgence. Going further, infusing 0% brews with functional health claims can engage those who drink low-/no-alcohol beers.
Amid stagnant innovation in the German beer market, brands can impress new drinkers by pushing brewing boundaries. Even within brewing laws, brands can explore new flavours, such as herbs and berries, or adopt craft brewing techniques, such as cryo hops and kveik yeast.
German Beer Industry Statistics
- Consumer Behaviour in the Beer Market Germany: 57% of 18-24 year olds are cutting back on their alcohol intake, which threatens the industry.
- German Beer Market Challenges: Turbulent weather is in part culpable for beer market struggles in Germany, which drives up prices. 41% of drinkers agree that private-label beer offers a similar quality to brands, incentivising branded investment in climate-resistant grain to mitigate price rises in the long run.
German Beer Market Report – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in this Report
- Usage of beer products in 2024 including the impact of alcohol moderation as the German population ages.
- How to engage ‘Generation Moderation’ as a low-/no-alcohol beer brand.
- The necessity for beer brands to engage both traditional and experimental beer users.
- How to generate the community euphoria offered by international tournaments year-round.
- Innovation in the beer market in Germany, discussing reasons for lacking new innovation and showcasing recent German beer market trends.
Report Scope
This report analyses the beer market in Germany. Consumer data covers at-home and out-of-home consumption. For the purposes of this report, beer is divided into the following categories:
- Pilsner
- Wheat beer/white beer
- Export/lager
- Ale
- Other types
Beer varieties are further categorised as: Non-alcoholic, light beer, fruit-flavoured, spirit-flavoured, craft beer, gluten-free.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Adam Millward, Research. Adam joined Mintel’s German reports team in 2023 as an Associate Research analyst, having previously worked as a translator and interpreter at an international tax firm. Adam graduated from the University of Kent with a degree in German language and literature, including a study placement at the University of Heidelberg.
As consumers moderate their alcohol intake, functional low-/no-alcohol beer alternatives hold German beer market opportunities. Daring brands can bend – or break – purity laws to excite new drinkers, for instance by experimenting with unique base ingredients.
Adam Millward
Research – Mintel Reports
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Opportunities
- Market size and forecast for beer
- Value sales to remain stable
- Volume sales will drop below 6bn litres
- The five-year outlook for beer
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Opportunities
- Appealing to an increasingly moderate usage base
- Strike a fine balance with extra light beers for Generation Moderation
- Push non-alcoholic beers beyond isotonic and into the performance space
- Highlight where 0% beers improve performance level
- Tap into moderation trends as a full and non-alcoholic beer brand
- Bend the rules to drive innovation in the beer space
- Amid sinking sales and dwindling innovation, brands must find new ways to tantalise drinkers
- What is Germany’s purity ‘law’ and why would you break it?
- Three ways to lend beer new excitement
- Engage drinkers old and new with exciting partnerships
- Old meets new: two case studies
- Look to ancient grains to add a modern twist for traditional drinkers
- How to break the beer rules: a rebellious brewer’s guide
- Proud to be a rulebreaker: Steam Brew’s advert boasts defiance of Germany’s brewing laws
- Concepts for an ‘impure’ beer: disrupter and legacy brands
- Alpenbrau: an (imaginary) legacy brand rebels
- Engage community as a strategy to win new users
- The Euro 2024 uplift indicates the virtue of engaging communities for beer brands
- Focus on creating communal experiences for at-home drinking
- Graph 1: interest in recreating the feeling of drinking in a pub/bar at home, by occasion for drinking beer, 2024
- Germany’s partisan gaming community has untapped potential for beer brands
- Three ways beer can appeal to gamers
- Heineken taps into the social potential of gaming communities
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Consumer
- Usage of beer
- Overall consumption is stable, while football frenzy boosts once-per-week usage
- Alcohol consumption grows in Germany, though moderation is also on-trend
- Graph 2: alcohol reduction in the past 12 months, by age group, 2023 vs 2024
- Pilsner and wheat beer slump in successive years as beer mixes rise…
- Graph 3: types of beer consumed in the last three months, 2022 vs 2024
- …while low-/no-alcohol beers continue their upwards march
- Graph 4: varieties of beer drunk, 2021 vs 2022 vs 2024
- Mindful consumption from both ends of the usage base…
- …will push brands towards the low/no end of the beer spectrum
- Occasions for drinking beer
- The Euro 2024 uplift shows the value of fandom to beer brands…
- Graph 5: occasions for drinking beer, 2022 vs 2024
- …incentivising brands to drive communal drinking opportunities outside of football
- Outdoor consumption deflates, with 2022 consumption boosted by release from lockdown
- Attributes worth paying more for in beer
- Beer drinkers won’t compromise on high-quality ingredients
- Graph 6: attributes worth paying more for in a beer product, 2024
- Artisanal production, brand storytelling and sustainable production feed into the perception of quality beer
- Graph 7: attributes worth paying more for in a beer product, by willingness to pay more for high quality ingredients, 2024
- Budvar and Bitburger exemplify ‘us vs them’ marketing in the UK, challenging big international players
- A new generation of beer drinkers will value breaking from the established order
- Attitudes and behaviours towards beer
- Low- and no-alcohol beer is gaining approval among drinkers for its taste and health credentials
- Graph 8: behaviours towards beer, 2024
- Low-/no-alcohol beer balances enjoyment and permissibility for Germans who need to perform
- Private-label beer is an acceptable alternative to branded options
- Graph 9: attitudes towards beer, 2024
- Beer price hikes will open the door for private labels to compete with brands
- Graph 10: responses to the statement that ‘private label beers are as good as branded ones’, by financial health, 2024
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Innovation
- New product innovation in beer is on a downward trajectory
- Graph 11: beer launches, by launch type, 2014-2024
- Brands dominate the launch landscape, but share of new product launches has steadily decreased
- Graph 12: beer launches, by branded vs private-label, 2022-24
- Graph 13: branded beer launches by launch type, 2020-24
- Private label beers assume the quality cues of brand fare
- Krombacher partners with Berliner Luft in their throwback launch
- No-/low-alcohol beers are emphasising the ‘herbaceous’ hoppy taste
- Standard beer launches stagnate, while non-alcoholic ones continue to climb
- Graph 14: beer launches by ABV*, 2018-24
- Alcohol-free brands lean into their inherent health advantage
- Embrace Au-Natural: BRLO leans into the ‘naked’ naturalism of 0% beer
- Environmentally friendly package claims dominate…
- …but other sustainability claims are lagging behind
- More potential for upcycling in the beer space
- Carlsberg Group trial paper fibre bottles…
- …and the first ever beer brewed on drought-resistant fonio grain
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Market
- Market drivers
- Beer industry reports sales slump in 2024, citing tight household budgets and poor weather
- Beer brands must futureproof as high temperatures drive rapid ‘heatflation’
- Hotter, sunnier summers will increase demand for beer, but may shape consumer tastes
- DGE research highlights the extent of Germany’s beer habit, prompting government action
- The German population is forecast to age, likely seeing the beer usage base shrink
- Graph 15: population structure by age, 2022-30
- Market size
- Value growth stays stable, while volume sales slide below pre-COVID-19 levels
- Graph 16: volume market size for beer, 2019-23
- Graph 17: value market size for beer, 2019-23
- Value growth recovers, while volume sales backslide to pre-COVID-19 levels
- Strong beer is the big winner amid overall value growth
- In successive years, all beer segments have lost volume sales
- Lighter and stronger ends of the beer spectrum are performing best
- Strong and export segments are the big winners in the value market
- Amid general volume malaise, strong and light/non-alcoholic weather the storm best
- Market forecast
- Price increase ensures that value sales remain stable
- Volume sales will decline below 6bn litres before stabilising
- Value stability is predicted, while volume sales will continue their steady decline
- Market share
- Private labels are the big winner in value sales…
- …as well as volume sales
- Poor branded growth indicates the ongoing effect of inflation on the beer sector
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APPENDIX
- Report scope and definitions
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Methodology – consumer research
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Methodology – market size and forecast
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
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