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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Opportunities
- Market size & forecast for sweet bakery
- Outlook
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OPPORTUNITIES
- Revitalise category innovation
- Unlock flavour potential by moving away from chocolate and towards fruit/vegetables
- Position textures as premium to capture treat/celebratory occasions
- Eye-catching products key for the social-media-savvy generation
- Broaden consumption cohort with BFY formulations
- Embrace wholegrain to indicate health
- High-protein claims enter the category as health and indulgence combine
- Further challenge foodservice
- Enhance fresh offerings in-store to further challenge cafés/restaurants
- Price anchoring against foodservice can attract under-55s
- Retail café/restaurant options can capture trends and offset volume losses for foodservice
- Emphasise the importance of sustainability as price rises hit
- Carob may find the sweet spot between taste and environment
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THE CONSUMER
- Frequency of cake & sweet baked goods consumption
- Sweet bakery loyalty remains strong, with almost ubiquitous consumption
- Graph 1: consumption of sweet bakery once a week or more, 2022-25
- Sweet bakery’s versatility will likely support future growth
- Breakfast-centred products may drive frequent usage of sweet baked goods
- Graph 2: sweet bakery consumption frequency, by type, 2025
- Increased weekly consumption of sweet baked goods driven by 35-54s
- Graph 3: consumption of sweet baked goods once a week or more, by age, 2022-25
- Purchasing of cakes & sweet baked goods
- Mood-boosting properties drive purchase levels ever higher
- Strong purchasing from those in a less-stable financial situation
- 2024-25 purchase levels reveal slight uptick
- Graph 4: purchase of cakes & sweet baked goods in the last three months, 2024-25
- Purchase locations for sweet bakery
- Grocery stores are a key sweet bakery purchase location
- Sweet bakery visuals appeal most to under-35s
- Graph 5: attitudes related to sweet bakery products in grocery stores, 2025
- 16-34s would prefer fresher products…
- …possibly driven by their notable opposition to UPFs
- Interest in sweet bakery innovations
- Fruit appears to be a winner for natural sweetening
- Graph 6: “I would be interested in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods that…”, 2025
- Interest in high-protein sweet bakery products skews towards younger Germans
- Social media provides fertile land for brands to sow new innovation
- Desired qualities in cakes, cake bars & sweet baked goods for different consumption occasions
- Desire for eye-catching products emphasises the role of visuals in the cakes & sweet baked goods category
- Graph 7: desired qualities in cakes, cake bars & sweet baked goods for different consumption occasions, 2025
- Desire for eye-catching products emphasises the role of visuals in the cakes & sweet baked goods category
- Focus on visual satisfaction points…
- …to the influence of social media
- Younger Germans focus on healthier breakfasts
- Graph 8: qualities sought in sweet bakery for breakfast among consumers who agree there should be more cakes, cake bars & sweet baked goods designed for breakfast, 2025
- Generous fillings/toppings can indicate premium, as consumers increasingly socialise at home
- Attitudes & behaviours
- Sweet bakery retains its mood-boosting appeal
- Price rises in adjacent categories are less likely to shift over-55s towards sweet bakery
- Prices in adjacent categories may support interest in sweet bakery category
- Graph 9: behaviours related to price in the sweet bakery category, 2025
- Taste particularly important for 16-24s when exploring new concepts
- Category buyers/eaters aged 16-34 most likely to entertain novel sustainability concepts
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INNOVATION
- Flavour innovation lacking, although issues of the day may prompt a shift in focus away from chocolate
- Graph 10: cakes, pastries & sweet goods launches by top 10 flavours (incl blend), 2021-25
- Space and appetite for fruit and vegetable content to grow further
- Graph 11: cakes, pastries & sweet baked goods by top 10 fruit/vegetable ingredients, 2024
- Fruit- and vegetable-based cake innovation
- High-protein launches limited despite growing interest
- Retailers and discounters continue to lead category launches
- Graph 12: cakes, pastries & sweet goods launches by ultimate company, 2021-25
- Branded launches account for roughly 60% of sweet bakery launches
- Graph 13: cakes, pastries & sweet goods launches, branded vs private label, 2021-25
- Branded displays more-varied innovation compared to private label
- Breakfast claims are limited, despite clear interest from 16-34s
- Ethical claims lead the way as the climate net closes in on indulgent food & drink
- Graph 14: cakes, pastries & sweet goods launches, by top 10 claims, 2024-25
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THE MARKET
- Market drivers
- Ingredient price rises may support value sales
- Private label set to benefit from price-rise-related ‘trade down’
- Cocoa price volatility may nudge manufacturers towards making more-sustainable ingredient choices
- Mood-boosting qualities will continue to prop up sales…
- …but healthy lifestyle trends threaten category volume consumption
- Consumers are aware of UPF, but the indulgent nature of the category allows for a grace period
- Market size
- After steady volume rises in 2019-22, volume falls in 2022-24 impact value sales
- Graph 15: retail value and volume sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, 2019-24
- Volume growth stumbles amidst category price hikes
- Graph 16: annual volume and price growth for retail sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, 2022-24
- Shrinkage of the overall pie as retail volume sales decline in 2023-24
- Graph 17: retail value sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, by segment, 2022-24
- Graph 18: retail volume sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, by segment, 2022-24
- Sweet breads most resilient as small and large cakes/pies suffer stark declines
- Graph 19: value and volume growth in retail sales of sweet bakery, 2024
- Market forecast
- Value sales expected to increase steadily
- Graph 20: retail value sales of sweet bakery, 2019-30
- Volume sales should recover after short-term struggle
- Graph 21: retail volume sales of sweet bakery, 2019-30
- Expect a steadier picture as volume and value grow modestly
- Forecast – a note on US trade disruption
- Impact of US trade disruption for the cakes & sweet baked goods market
- Market share
- Value market shares stable as falling volume sales offset higher prices
- Graph 22: value market shares for retail sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, 2023-24
- Volume market share steady with PL’s continued dominance
- Graph 23: volume market shares for retail sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, 2023-24
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APPENDIX
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations
- Methodology – consumer research
- Consumer research methodology
- Correspondence analysis
- A note on language
- Methodology – market size and forecast
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
Visuals will be important in attracting younger consumers, with social media and presentation key to driving growth in an otherwise stagnant category.
German Cake Market — Current Landscape
Prices are precariously placed in the retail sector due to the supply issues triggered by climate and global turbulence. Necessity is the mother of invention, meaning that manufacturers would be well advised to explore novel ingredients that can deliver on taste whilst reducing their environmental impact. This may in turn force a pivot away from an over-reliance on chocolate, which is holding back more-innovative flavour development.
Attracting consumers from foodservice will be key to long-term growth. Assure them of the quality by indicating freshness with minimal processing and harnessing packaging innovation relating to freshness.
German Cake and Sweet Baked Goods Market — Statistics
- Cake Market Size in Germany: 88% of Germans bought cakes and sweet baked goods from January to March 2025, which is up from 85% in 2022. This is reflective of the emerging trend towards trading down, away from foodservice outlets in response to price rises related to VAT rebounds.
- Purchase Behaviour in the German Cake Market: 59% of Germans buy cakes and sweet baked goods from in-store bakeries at grocery stores, making it the most popular purchase channel, providing retailers and discounters with strong visibility for their own-label products.
Cake Market Report — What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in this Report
- Overview of current cake market performance and the outlook for the next five years.
- Key new product development trends in the German sweet baked goods market.
- Usage trends of cakes and sweet baked goods.
- Interest in category innovation, including the role of fruit to revitalise flavour.
- Desired qualities, including the value of visual satisfaction in the digital age.
- Attitudes and behaviours related to cakes and sweet baked goods, and how price rises in adjacent categories can support growth.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report is written by Hannah Sandow, Associate Director. After joining Mintel in 2017, Hannah gained significant experience in quantitative and qualitative research working with GNPD and Mintel Market Sizes before joining the German reports team.
Pivoting towards novel ingredients can support more-palatable pricing. Consumers trading down from foodservice can be attracted with freshness and eye-catching visuals.
Hannah Sandow
Associate Director — Food & Drink, Germany
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