Stay ahead of the curve and future-proof your business with Mintel’s Germany Cake and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2024. Our full report is packed with consumer-led market intelligence, market trends, and consumer behaviours. Get a 360° view of the sweet goods market in Germany including the cake market size and a growth forecast to help you align your business strategy with the needs of your audience.
Below, we’ve handpicked the key insights analysed in the full report and summarised the core topics.
Our Report Delivers Key Insights On
- Drivers in the cake and sweet goods market, including demographic changes and the impact of the economy.
- Consumption frequency/barriers and purchase of sweet baked goods.
- Consumer behaviours and attitudes towards the packaged sweet goods market.
- Recent launch activity and innovations in the German cake market.
An Overview of the Cake Market in Germany
Despite added price pressure, 94% of Germans consumed sweet baked goods in the three months to May 2024.
However, 40% of consumers in Germany consider sweet baked goods as less of an everyday treat than other sweet treats, posing a threat to everyday consumption.
The German Cake and Sweet Goods Market: What Consumers Want and Why
- Consumer Behaviour in the Sweet Goods Market: Private labels dominate value and volume cake market shares. Despite signs of improving financial confidence, private labels can strengthen their position with premium products, as almost 50% of German consumers agree that grocery store private-label cakes, cake bars, and sweet baked goods taste as good as branded ones.
- Cake Market Opportunities: 41% of buyers prefer cakes, cake bars, and sweet baked goods made with organic ingredients over those that aren’t, indicating an interest in sustainability within a traditionally indulgent category. Exploring the value of flavour innovation centred around locally available ingredients can enhance sustainability and quality. Over half of consumers would be willing to pay more for sweet baked goods produced with local and/or organic ingredients.
More About This Report
This report covers the German packaged sweet goods market, including individual cakes, cake bites and bars, as well as sweet baked goods (also summarised as ‘sweet bakery’ throughout the report). The cake market size comprises sales via all retail channels including direct to consumer. Sales via in-store bakeries which are bar coded are also included in this report.
The cake market size covers wrapped ambient and chilled cakes, pies, tarts, and other sweet bakery products. Cake bases and doughs are excluded from this report.
Meet The Expert
This report was written by Khalid Peerbaccus, Senior Analyst. Khalid joined the German food and drink reports team at Mintel in April 2023. With more than ten years of experience in the FMCG industry and a special focus on innovation research, Khalid undertakes his research in the German market with keen enthusiasm and a particularly interested in consumer behaviour and motivations.
While taste and indulgence are paramount in the German cake market, exploring better-for-you options can enhance more frequent snacking. Furthermore, embracing seasonal and local ingredients help develop a sustainability halo.
Khalid Peerbaccus
Senior Analyst – Food & Drink
Collapse All
-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five year outlook for cakes & sweet baked goods
- Market context
- Commodity cost rises threaten price hikes…
- …but financially stable consumers may protect sales
- Government seeks to encourage plant-based consumption whilst reducing visibility of unhealthy food to children
- Ageing population and high obesity rates may increase demand for BFY formulations
- Graph 1: current and projected share of age groups that make up the population, 2024-50
- Forecast growth of single-households necessitates packaging innovation
- Graph 2: households and projected household, by type of household, 2000-40
- Mintel predicts
- Market size & forecast for cakes & sweet baked goods
- Retail volume sales have stagnated but opportunities exist to address this
- Further price increases expected to continue pushing value growth in the short term…
- …while volume levels are predicted to grow to a smaller extent
- Opportunities
- Leverage natural sweetness to promote more frequent and guilt-free snacking
- Offer food service experience from the comfort of home
- Enhance sustainability in the category through quality local ingredients
- Tap into the snacking trend to boost more frequent consumption
- Provide healthier on-the-go options to support morning commute usage
- The competitive landscape
- Private label demonstrate a dominance in the sweet bakery category
- Graph 3: company retail value and volume sales of cakes & sweet baked goods, 2023
-
MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 is expected to remain challenging
- Graph 4: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- The inflation rate is bouncing back to more conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 5: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- The impact of the economy on cakes & sweet baked goods
- Commodity cost increases may result in price rises for manufacturers…
- …thus impacting consumer spending
- Strong purchase levels amongst financially stable consumers may protect sales should price rises hit less financially stable consumers
- Graph 6: purchase of cakes & sweet baked goods, by financial situation, 2024
- Snacking trend
- Mood-boosting snacking likely to endure despite improving financial conditions
- Health factors
- BMEL nutrition strategy may elevate interest in plant-based cakes & sweet baked goods
- Proposed advertising ban may reduce visibility of cakes & baked goods…
- …with limited impact expected on the category
- High levels of overweight and obesity may increase demand for BFY alternatives…
- …benefiting portion-controlled packaging and mindful eating
- Awareness of ultra-processed foods may elevate status of natural, minimally processed sweet bakery
- Scrutiny of non-sugar sweeteners casts doubt on sugar substitutes to aid weight loss
- Demographic factors
- Ageing population may increase demand for BFY formulations
- Graph 7: current and projected share of age groups that make up the population, 2024-50
- Single-household consumption rate requires attention amidst forecast growth
- Graph 8: households and projected household, by type of household, 2000-40
- Sustainability
- Increased organic farming may make organic cakes & sweet baked goods more affordable and permissible
-
WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Frequency of cake & sweet baked goods consumption
- Trended data reveals a stable picture in the sweet bakery category…
- …indicating consumer loyalty despite price pressure
- Sweet baked goods considered less of an everyday treat impacting consumption frequency
- Graph 9: consumption frequency of cakes & sweet baked goods in the last three months, 2024
- Increase consumption frequency with bite-sized options
- Utilise natural sweetness to encourage more frequent, permissible snacking
- Purchasing of cakes and sweet baked good
- Rising food service prices may boost demand for whole cakes…
- …whilst snacking remains central to further sweet baked good growth
- Lifestage data indicates single-person household consumption rate must be addressed
- Graph 10: purchase of sweet bakery in the last three months, by lifestage, 2024
- Innovate packaging to increase purchase from single-person households
- Reasons for not eating sweet bakery more often/at all
- Prompt more frequent consumption by promoting indulgence whilst dialling back on unhealthy ingredients
- Graph 11: reasons for not eating cakes & sweet baked goods more often, 2024
- Encourage mood-boosting rule breaking
- Target on-the-go breakfast time with real fruit pieces
- Prioritise whole ingredients to remould ultra-processed perception
- Behaviours towards cakes & sweet baked goods
- Emphasise quality and value for money to compete with speciality bakeries
- Graph 12: behaviours towards cakes & sweet baked goods, 2024
- Provide value for money with shelf-stable frozen sweet bakery goods
- Provide further value by delivering the speciality experience at home
- Local ingredients can evoke feel good factor and emphasise quality
- Share joy through short form media to target under-34s
- Attitudes towards cakes & sweet baked goods
- Novel ingredients such as aquafaba can help produce more sustainable, tasty vegan sweet bakes
- Graph 13: attitudes towards cakes & sweet baked goods, 2024
- Utilise aquafaba as an egg alternative to give vegan bakes a sustainability halo
- Evoke calmness through nostalgia by tapping into the grandma trend to appeal to under-24s
- Private labels can offer an at-home premium experience at lower prices
-
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Retailers and discounters lead the way
- Graph 14: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, by ultimate company, 2020-24
- Innovative private label launches
- REWE group offers quality and sustainability
- Branded products innovate amid economic instability, while private labels focus more on variety and packaging innovation
- Graph 15: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, launch type by branded vs private label, 2020-24
- Branded innovation examples
- Flavour innovation can move beyond chocolate for sustainability and cost reasons
- Graph 16: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, by top 10 flavours, 2020-24
- Novel flavours can be used to rejuvenate a relatively stagnant category
- Crunchy, airy and light textures on trend
- Graph 17: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, by top eight textures, 2021-24
- Different textures can encourage different types of consumption
- Decline in average sugar content across the category
- Graph 18: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, by average sugar content, 2020-24
- Start-up NaschNatur offers natural, healthy vegan sweet bakery snacks
- Ethical claims remain important in a category which typically focuses on indulgence
- Graph 19: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches, by top 10 claims, 2023-24
- Seasonal launches are stagnant, offering opportunity to broaden definition
- Graph 20: cakes, pastries and sweet goods launches with seasonal claim, 2020-24
- Seasonal product launches beyond Christmas
- Co-branded bakes allow manufacturers to extend their brand
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Dr Oetker positions mini cakes as a spontaneous treat
- Coppenrath & Wiese offers cake for every occasion…
- …whilst assisting home bakers with seasonal bakes
-
MARKET SHARE
- Cost of living crisis created favourable circumstances for private label
- Graph 21: value market share for sweet bakery, 2022-23
- Stable market volume shares with minor private label gains
- Graph 22: volume market share for sweet bakery, 2022-23
- Add a premium touch to remain ahead of the private label competition
- Improving consumer confidence offers brands a chance to innovate and provide products at a more premium price point
-
MARKET SIZE, SEgmentation AND FORECAST
- Value growth soars as volume stays flat
- Graph 23: volume market size for sweet bakery, 2019-23
- Graph 24: value market size for sweet bakery, 2018-23
- Sweet bakery market growth supported by price increased
- Large cakes came out on top in terms of volume growth in 2023
- Further price increases expected to continue pushing value growth in the short term…
- …while volume levels are predicted to grow to a smaller extent
- Mid-single digit growth expected for cakes & sweet baked goods market value
-
APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
Market Intelligence Made Easier With Mintel
The first Mintel Market Intelligence report was published over 50 years ago. Since then, we have provided our unique insights and understanding of consumers, innovation and global markets to thousands of customers worldwide. Here’s why our customers rely on Mintel:
- Gain a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the market: Mintel reports blend consumer research, market forecasts, product innovation tracking, and competitive analysis, allowing businesses to see every angle of their industry and identify new opportunities quickly.
- Make decisions with confidence, grounded in robust data: Each report draws on up-to-date, reliable information from trusted sources and industry experts, ensuring your strategies are based on solid evidence rather than speculation.
- Benefit from expert analysis and practical recommendations: Mintel’s reports are written by experienced analysts who interpret complex data and provide clear, actionable insights you can trust to guide your next moves.
- Stay ahead with actionable intelligence on market trends and consumer behaviour: By combining fresh research with long-term market monitoring, our reports help businesses anticipate changes and adapt strategically. So you’re prepared to make informed decisions and drive growth.
What goes into a Mintel Market Intelligence Report?
Curious about how a Market Intelligence report comes together? We like to think of it as building a detailed puzzle. We start with individual pieces: data from consumers, market statistics, industry trends, and online conversations. Then our expert analysts add world-class human insight and industry knowledge. The pieces are assembled to reveal a clear, comprehensive picture of a market.
The Four Pillars of Our Research
We use a combination of four main research methods when creating our reports, each adding a valuable perspective:
- Consumer Research: Direct surveys with real people, giving us clear, current insights into what people think and do.
- Desk Research: In-depth review of trusted data sources. We use this rich database, plus powerful internal tools that track new products and market sizes, to detect trends and guide forecasts.
- Trade Research: Insights from conversations with industry experts. Their real-world experience helps us understand what’s happening behind the scenes.
- Brand and Social Media Research: Analysis of online opinions and trends. This lets us spot trends, measure brand sentiment, and capture feedback in real time, adding further depth to our research.
Bringing It All Together
Each of these four pillars provides a different piece of the puzzle. Consumer research tells us what customers think, desk research provides the factual framework, trade research offers an insider’s view, and social media analysis reveals public sentiment.
Our expert analysts are skilled in weaving these diverse data streams together. They apply a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to uncover the deeper story, connecting the dots to deliver clear, actionable insights. This comprehensive, multi-layered process is how we transform raw data into a market intelligence report you can trust to inform your most important business decisions.
£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or invoice (net 30 payment terms)
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF, Powerpoint and Excel Databook straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Interactive databook included
Focus on the data that matters most to you with a customisable databook avaliable on our platform
-
Save up to 20% when you purchase multiple reports
Discount automatically applied in basket
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
Mintel is really good for getting a handle on a particular category quickly. If we are working on a new business pitch in an area we don’t have much experience in, it’s a brilliant way to get up to speed with what’s going on, what’s changing and what the key trends are in any category.
It’s very rare now that anyone will plough through a 200-page report – that’s why the summaries are really useful. We know they are backed up by a lot of detail, so if you need to go into something in more depth you know the information will be all there for you.
Pauline Robson, Managing Partner, Mediacom
There is no question that Mintel is the go-to resource for the best quality market research, but I did not think it was an affordable option for Abacus Marketing to consider. As a small marketing agency, we only work with a few new clients each year.
However, we have a very high-end consultative approach to our work, so we really do need a partner like Mintel to provide the big agency experience we are always aiming to deliver. Our clients come from an incredibly diverse range of industry sectors, so we obviously need access to market research reports from a very wide spectrum of marketplaces – and that is precisely what we got.
Stephen Taylor-Brown, Managing Director, Abacus
At Jackman, we believe that powerful strategies are based on human insight. Mintel’s leading-edge reports and insights into consumer attitudes and behaviors are an important input as we develop and execute strategy.
Alana Gavin, VP Research and Insights, Jackman
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.
Ngozi Ngonadi-Nkwoji, Senior Marketing Manager, Amazon
We use Mintel Reports, mostly for financial services and ecommerce markets, plus a few retail and technology ones.
As a leading payments provider, we value additional insights into consumer behaviour, opinions and trends that are shaping the many different markets we operate in. Mintel is a very good and very quick way for us to obtain those insights.
We use Mintel to get a view on where a particular market is going, which can support us in product development and help us identify opportunities or indeed risks, it is a very useful barometer of a market’s potential.
Andrew Neeson, Market Intelligence Manager, VocaLink
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
